Tim Malloy, Assistant Director, Quinnipiac University Poll (203) 645-8043 Rubenstein Associates, Inc. Public Relations Contact: Pat Smith (212) 843-8026 FOR RELEASE: DECEMBER 2, 2015 BUMP FOR TRUMP AS CARSON FADES IN REPUBLICAN RACE, QUINNIPIAC UNIVERSITY NATIONAL POLL FINDS; CLINTON, SANDERS SURGE IN MATCHUPS WITH GOP LEADERS Eleven months before the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump is the undisputed leader in the Republican field, as Dr. Ben Carson, in a virtual tie with Trump four weeks ago, drops to third place, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today. On the Democratic side, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton widens her lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont to 60 30 percent, compared to 53 35 percent in a November 4 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Poll. Former Maryland Gov. Martin O Malley has 2 percent, with 6 percent undecided. Trump gets 27 percent of Republican voters today, with 17 percent for Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, 16 percent each for Carson and Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas and 5 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. No other candidate tops 3 percent, with 8 percent undecided. Last month, Trump had 24 percent, with 23 percent for Carson. Among Republicans, 26 percent of voters say they would definitely not support Trump, with 21 percent who would not back Bush. It doesn t seem to matter what he says or who he offends, whether the facts are contested or the political correctness is challenged, Donald Trump seems to be wearing Kevlar, said Tim Malloy, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. Dr. Ben Carson, moving to center stage just one month ago, now needs some CPR. The Doctor sinks. The Donald soars. The GOP, 11 months from the election, has to be thinking, This could be the guy. GOP s guy. Secretary Hillary Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders have to be hoping Trump is the -more-
Quinnipiac University Poll/December 2, 2015 page 2 American voters shift to Clinton as the Democrat gains ground against Republicans: 47 41 percent over Trump, compared to 46 43 percent November 4; Clinton at 45 percent to Rubio s 44 percent, compared to a 46 41 percent Rubio lead last month; Clinton tops Cruz 47 42 percent, compared to Cruz at 46 percent to Clinton s 43 percent last month; Clinton at 46 percent to Carson s 43 percent compared to Carson s 50 40 percent lead last month. Sanders does just as well, or even better, against top Republicans: Topping Trump 49 41 percent; Getting 44 percent to Rubio s 43 percent; Beating Cruz 49 39 percent; Leading Carson 47 41 percent. Clinton has a negative 44 51 percent favorability rating. Other favorability ratings are: Negative 35 57 percent for Trump; 40 33 percent for Carson; 44 31 percent for Sanders; 37 28 percent for Rubio; 33 33 percent for Cruz. American voters say 60 36 percent that Clinton is not honest and trustworthy. Trump is not honest and trustworthy, voters say 59 35 percent. Sanders gets the best honesty grades among top candidates, 59 28 percent, with Carson at 53 34 percent, Rubio at 49 33 percent and Cruz at 43 39 percent. All American voters say 63 32 percent, including 69 27 percent among independent voters, that Clinton would have a good chance of beating the Republican nominee in a head-tohead matchup. Voters are divided 46 49 percent on whether Trump would have a good chance of beating the Democratic nominee, with independent voters divided 47 48 percent. From November 23 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,453 registered voters nationwide with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones. The survey includes 672 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points and 573 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.1 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado and the nation as a public service and for research. For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter @QuinnipiacPoll. 2
1. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 5% 1% 4% 6% 2% 7% 5% 5% Carson 16 17 19 15 15 16 14 18 Christie 2 1 - - 2 4 2 2 Cruz 16 29 24 29 14 3 16 17 Fiorina 3 3 2 2 3 5 2 4 Gilmore - - - - - - - - Graham - - - - - 1 - - Huckabee 1 1 2 2 - - 1 - Kasich 2 - - - 2 3 2 1 Pataki - - - - - 1 1 - Paul 2 1 2 1 1 3 1 2 Rubio 17 12 13 11 26 15 17 16 Santorum - - - 1 - - - 1 Trump 27 29 24 25 25 31 30 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1-1 2 2 - DK/NA 8 5 8 8 8 8 7 10 MOST IMPORTANT FOR REP PRES NOMINEE Q70 Shares Strong Honest/ Values Leader Trustworthy Bush 2% 2% 3% Carson 23 10 17 Christie 1 4 1 Cruz 15 20 18 Fiorina 1 3 4 Gilmore - - - Graham - - - Huckabee 1 2 - Kasich 2 2 1 Pataki - - 1 Paul 3 - - Rubio 16 15 19 Santorum 1 1 - Trump 27 30 21 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 DK/NA 8 9 12 Cont d 3
1. (cont d)(if Republican or Republican Leaner) If the Republican primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Jeb Bush, Ben Carson, Chris Christie, Ted Cruz, Carly Fiorina, Jim Gilmore, Lindsey Graham, Mike Huckabee, John Kasich, George Pataki, Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Rick Santorum, and Donald Trump, for whom would you vote? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q72... Economy/ Foreign Jobs Terrorism Policy Bush 8% 5% 3% Carson 12 19 17 Christie 3 1 5 Cruz 13 16 19 Fiorina 2 5 4 Gilmore - - - Graham - - - Huckabee 1 1 1 Kasich 3 1 1 Pataki 1 - - Paul 2 - - Rubio 17 18 22 Santorum - - 1 Trump 23 29 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1-2 DK/NA 13 7 4 1A. (If candidate chosen q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1... Tot Carson Cruz Rubio Trump Made up 32% 26% 33% 23% 46% Might change 65 71 65 75 53 DK/NA 2 3 2 2 1 4
2. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Republican nomination for president: Bush, Carson, Christie, Cruz, Fiorina, Gilmore, Graham, Huckabee, Kasich, Pataki, Paul, Rubio, Santorum, or Trump? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Bush 21% 25% 17% 27% 20% 15% 23% 18% Carson 10 2 3 11 7 13 10 9 Christie 13 13 9 14 14 11 15 10 Cruz 6 1 1 4 5 9 7 4 Fiorina 11 8 9 9 12 13 10 12 Gilmore 9 9 4 13 8 8 9 10 Graham 11 16 7 16 9 6 12 10 Huckabee 9 5 2 11 8 9 10 9 Kasich 13 16 9 21 11 7 14 13 Pataki 11 13 5 16 9 7 11 11 Paul 13 11 9 16 13 9 11 15 Rubio 5 5 3 7 4 5 6 4 Santorum 9 5 1 10 8 8 9 9 Trump 26 16 24 25 20 34 24 30 No/No one 30 32 32 28 34 27 31 28 DK/NA 6 5 5 4 5 10 6 6 3. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) If the Democratic primary for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton, Martin O'Malley, and Bernie Sanders, for whom would you vote? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Clinton 60% 48% 60% 62% 53% 65% O'Malley 2-3 2 3 1 Sanders 30 47 33 24 39 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2-2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 2 DK/NA 6 5 4 8 4 8 MOST IMPORTANT FOR DEM PRES NOMINEE Q69... Shares Strong Honest/ Right Values Leader Trustworthy Cares Experience Clinton 58% 70% 44% 53% 81% O'Malley 1 3 3 1 3 Sanders 31 24 39 39 6 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 5 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 - DK/NA 7 2 8 6 9 MOST IMPORTANT ISSUE Q71 Economy/ Foreign Jobs Policy Clinton 59% 64% O'Malley 3 1 Sanders 31 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - DK/NA 5 12 5
3A. (If candidate chosen q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q3... CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q3 Tot Clinton Sanders Mind made up 57% 62% 50% Might change 41 37 49 DK/NA 1 2 1 4. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Are there any of these candidates you would definitely not support for the Democratic nomination for president: Clinton, O'Malley, or Sanders? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed) DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Clinton 8% 2% 7% 11% 12% 6% O'Malley 15 13 11 17 13 16 Sanders 7-5 11 5 9 No/No one 60 78 67 51 63 57 DK/NA 13 7 12 14 9 16 5. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 46% 8% 89% 41% 39% 53% 54% 42% Carson 43 84 7 42 49 37 39 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1-1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 4 1 10 7 5 4 7 DK/NA 4 2 2 6 4 4 1 5 Clinton 49% 51% 48% 38% 32% 43% 38% 82% 74% Carson 37 42 42 50 57 46 52 12 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 4 5 5 5 6 6 4 8 DK/NA 5 2 2 7 3 4 4 1 3 6
6. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 47% 7% 91% 45% 39% 56% 55% 44% Trump 41 82 7 37 49 33 34 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 4 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 6 1 9 6 5 6 5 DK/NA 4 4 1 5 3 4 3 4 Clinton 52% 50% 49% 39% 31% 45% 38% 87% 76% Trump 32 42 44 46 57 43 50 7 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 9 4 4 6 6 6 6 4 5 DK/NA 3 2 3 7 4 3 4 2 5 7. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 45% 7% 87% 40% 36% 53% 51% 41% Rubio 44 89 8 41 51 37 43 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 2 1 10 6 4 3 6 DK/NA 5 1 2 8 5 4 2 6 Clinton 45% 49% 47% 40% 30% 42% 36% 83% 69% Rubio 38 44 43 52 59 49 54 10 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 1 1-3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 3 5 3 6 4 5 2 5 DK/NA 8 3 3 4 3 5 4 5 5 8. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Clinton 47% 8% 90% 43% 39% 55% 55% 43% Cruz 42 87 5 39 50 34 38 44 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2-2 2 2 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 1 2 9 5 5 4 5 DK/NA 5 3 1 7 4 5 2 6 Clinton 51% 50% 49% 39% 32% 45% 39% 84% 72% Cruz 33 42 43 52 58 45 51 9 17 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 1 1 2 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 8 2 5 3 4 5 4 3 4 DK/NA 7 3 3 5 4 4 4 3 8 7
9. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ben Carson the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 47% 11% 84% 47% 41% 53% 52% 45% Carson 41 81 6 40 48 35 41 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 5 5 6 4 7 4 7 DK/NA 5 3 4 6 5 5 2 6 Sanders 60% 49% 46% 35% 35% 46% 40% 77% 72% Carson 33 41 43 49 57 43 50 16 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1-1 2 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 9 5 6 4 6 5 3 6 DK/NA 5 1 4 7 3 4 4 3 7 10. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Donald Trump the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 49% 11% 86% 52% 43% 55% 56% 46% Trump 41 80 8 36 47 35 36 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1-3 2-1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 3 4 4 6 4 5 DK/NA 4 3 2 5 4 4 3 5 Sanders 62% 49% 48% 40% 36% 47% 42% 82% 78% Trump 29 43 45 45 54 43 48 13 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2-1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 6 3 7 4 6 5 3 3 DK/NA 5 1 3 7 4 4 4 2 6 11. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Marco Rubio the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 44% 7% 81% 45% 39% 49% 48% 43% Rubio 43 85 8 39 50 35 44 42 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 5 5 3 7 3 6 DK/NA 6 4 5 9 6 7 5 7 Sanders 59% 46% 43% 33% 33% 40% 37% 80% 68% Rubio 33 41 44 53 58 45 51 12 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 8 5 5 3 5 4 3 6 DK/NA 7 3 6 8 4 8 6 4 8 8
12. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Bernie Sanders the Democrat and Ted Cruz the Republican, for whom would you vote? Sanders 49% 9% 87% 51% 43% 54% 54% 46% Cruz 39 83 4 34 48 31 38 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 4 5 3 7 3 6 DK/NA 6 4 4 8 4 7 4 6 Sanders 62% 50% 49% 34% 37% 45% 41% 86% 71% Cruz 28 36 41 52 55 39 48 8 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 1 1 2 1 2 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 9 5 5 3 6 4 3 7 DK/NA 7 3 4 8 3 8 5 3 6 Q13-24. Summary Table - Is your opinion of [Candidate] favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him/her? Table ranked by net favorability (Favorable - Unfavorable). REGISTERED VOTERS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Sanders 44 31 24 1 13 Rubio 37 28 34 1 9 Carson 40 33 25 1 7 Cruz 33 33 32 1 0 Fiorina 28 29 42 - -1 Kasich 19 23 57 1-4 Clinton 44 51 3 2-7 Huckabee 29 41 30 1-12 Paul 23 40 36 1-17 Christie 28 48 24 1-20 Bush 32 54 12 2-22 Trump 35 57 5 3-22 REPUBLICANS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Rubio 66 8 25 1 58 Cruz 65 9 26-56 Carson 67 13 19 1 54 Huckabee 56 18 27-38 Trump 64 27 6 3 37 Fiorina 49 17 33-32 Bush 53 34 11 2 19 Christie 43 31 25 1 12 Kasich 27 20 52 1 7 Paul 32 36 31 1-4 DEMOCRATS... Hvn't Fav Unfav hrden REF NetFav Clinton 85 11 3 1 74 Sanders 68 7 24 1 61 9
13. Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 44% 9% 85% 38% 36% 52% 50% 41% Unfavorable 51 89 11 56 59 43 46 54 Hvn't hrd enough 3 2 3 5 4 3 2 4 REFUSED 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 Favorable 44% 45% 48% 39% 30% 41% 35% 84% 64% Unfavorable 48 50 48 57 66 54 60 14 27 Hvn't hrd enough 5 3 3 2 3 3 3 2 9 REFUSED 3 2-2 1 2 1 - - 14. Is your opinion of Ben Carson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 40% 67% 13% 44% 45% 36% 40% 41% Unfavorable 33 13 54 32 31 36 47 27 Hvn't hrd enough 25 19 33 22 24 26 13 31 REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 2 1 1 Favorable 31% 37% 42% 49% 49% 41% 45% 22% 20% Unfavorable 32 39 36 26 30 38 34 45 25 Hvn't hrd enough 35 24 21 22 20 19 20 33 55 REFUSED 1-1 3 1 2 1 - - 15. Is your opinion of Donald Trump favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 35% 64% 10% 31% 41% 29% 27% 39% Unfavorable 57 27 86 60 52 63 67 53 Hvn't hrd enough 5 6 3 5 5 6 3 6 REFUSED 3 3-3 2 3 2 3 Favorable 23% 36% 39% 39% 47% 36% 42% 9% 9% Unfavorable 69 57 56 49 45 54 50 87 84 Hvn't hrd enough 5 5 4 8 5 6 6 3 7 REFUSED 3 2 1 4 2 3 3 1-10
16. Is your opinion of Bernie Sanders favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 44% 15% 68% 47% 41% 46% 49% 41% Unfavorable 31 58 7 29 36 26 31 31 Hvn't hrd enough 24 27 24 24 22 26 18 27 REFUSED 1-1 - - 1 1 1 Favorable 59% 43% 43% 32% 39% 43% 41% 57% 60% Unfavorable 22 30 32 40 41 32 36 11 16 Hvn't hrd enough 19 27 24 26 20 24 22 32 23 REFUSED - - 1 1 1 1 1 - - 17. Is your opinion of Marco Rubio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 37% 66% 15% 36% 42% 32% 43% 34% Unfavorable 28 8 51 23 28 28 33 25 Hvn't hrd enough 34 25 33 41 29 39 22 40 REFUSED 1 1 1-1 2 1 1 Favorable 27% 34% 38% 48% 46% 38% 42% 21% 22% Unfavorable 22 33 32 23 27 26 26 33 42 Hvn't hrd enough 50 33 28 27 27 34 30 46 36 REFUSED 1-2 2 1 2 2 - - 18. Is your opinion of Ted Cruz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 33% 65% 8% 30% 38% 28% 31% 34% Unfavorable 33 9 60 30 32 35 47 27 Hvn't hrd enough 32 26 31 40 30 35 22 38 REFUSED 1-1 - 1 1 1 1 Favorable 25% 31% 33% 43% 42% 33% 38% 15% 25% Unfavorable 24 38 40 28 31 34 33 38 33 Hvn't hrd enough 51 30 25 26 26 31 28 47 41 REFUSED - - 1 2-2 1-1 11
19. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Jeb Bush favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 32% 53% 19% 27% 33% 31% 38% 29% Unfavorable 54 34 67 60 56 53 51 56 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 13 12 10 14 9 13 REFUSED 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 24% 32% 32% 35% Unfavorable 55 54 59 51 Hvn't hrd enough 21 11 8 10 REFUSED - 3 1 3 20. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Chris Christie favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 28% 43% 15% 28% 30% 26% 36% 24% Unfavorable 48 31 58 50 47 48 48 47 Hvn't hrd enough 24 25 25 21 23 25 15 28 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 23% 21% 30% 36% Unfavorable 42 53 53 40 Hvn't hrd enough 35 26 15 22 REFUSED - - 2 2 21. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Carly Fiorina favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her? Favorable 28% 49% 11% 25% 31% 25% 31% 27% Unfavorable 29 17 48 24 27 32 37 26 Hvn't hrd enough 42 33 41 50 42 43 31 48 REFUSED - - - 1-1 1 - AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 21% 20% 33% 37% Unfavorable 18 34 35 28 Hvn't hrd enough 60 46 32 34 REFUSED 1 - - 1 12
22. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Mike Huckabee favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 29% 56% 5% 29% 36% 23% 28% 29% Unfavorable 41 18 60 46 37 44 52 36 Hvn't hrd enough 30 27 34 26 26 33 20 34 REFUSED 1-1 - 1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 19% 32% 25% 40% Unfavorable 26 47 51 37 Hvn't hrd enough 55 22 24 22 REFUSED - - 1 1 23. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of John Kasich favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 19% 27% 16% 17% 23% 14% 21% 18% Unfavorable 23 20 26 20 25 21 26 21 Hvn't hrd enough 57 52 57 62 52 63 52 61 REFUSED 1 1 1 - - 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 5% 18% 24% 27% Unfavorable 19 18 23 30 Hvn't hrd enough 76 63 52 42 REFUSED - - 1 2 24. (Split Sample) Is your opinion of Rand Paul favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? Favorable 23% 32% 10% 26% 29% 17% 27% 20% Unfavorable 40 36 50 36 42 39 49 36 Hvn't hrd enough 36 31 39 37 28 43 23 42 REFUSED 1 1 1-1 1 1 1 AGE IN YRS... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Favorable 24% 25% 23% 19% Unfavorable 25 37 47 51 Hvn't hrd enough 50 38 29 29 REFUSED - - 1 1 13
33. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 36% 7% 73% 26% 30% 41% 37% 35% No 60 91 23 68 67 54 60 61 DK/NA 4 1 3 6 3 5 3 4 Yes 38% 29% 40% 37% 24% 32% 28% 65% 60% No 57 66 58 60 74 63 69 31 35 DK/NA 6 5 2 3 2 6 4 4 5 34. Would you say that - Donald Trump is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 35% 58% 12% 36% 40% 30% 29% 38% No 59 36 84 57 54 63 67 55 DK/NA 6 6 4 7 5 6 4 7 Yes 28% 33% 37% 41% 44% 38% 41% 10% 22% No 67 62 58 51 51 55 53 84 73 DK/NA 5 6 5 8 5 7 6 6 5 35. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 59% 39% 78% 64% 62% 57% 68% 55% No 28 45 11 25 27 28 22 31 DK/NA 13 17 11 11 11 15 11 14 Yes 70% 58% 60% 48% 60% 54% 57% 69% 67% No 18 28 29 34 29 29 29 18 20 DK/NA 12 14 10 18 11 16 14 13 13 14
36. Would you say that - Ben Carson is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 53% 79% 31% 54% 59% 48% 52% 54% No 34 13 55 33 32 36 41 31 DK/NA 12 8 14 13 9 16 7 15 Yes 45% 49% 56% 63% 64% 52% 58% 39% 43% No 37 40 35 24 29 33 31 49 37 DK/NA 17 11 9 13 7 15 11 13 19 37. Would you say that - Marco Rubio is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 49% 74% 32% 46% 54% 44% 54% 47% No 33 12 47 37 35 31 32 34 DK/NA 18 14 20 17 11 24 14 19 Yes 42% 43% 51% 59% 59% 50% 55% 31% 38% No 33 37 36 26 31 25 28 48 45 DK/NA 25 20 13 15 10 25 17 21 17 38. Would you say that - Ted Cruz is honest and trustworthy or not? Yes 43% 74% 18% 42% 51% 36% 42% 44% No 39 13 63 40 37 42 46 37 DK/NA 17 13 18 18 12 22 13 19 Yes 35% 42% 43% 52% 56% 41% 49% 26% 28% No 40 44 45 30 34 35 35 57 54 DK/NA 26 14 12 18 10 23 17 16 18 15
39. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 60% 26% 91% 62% 53% 67% 65% 57% No 38 73 8 35 45 32 34 41 DK/NA 2 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 Yes 68% 59% 62% 52% 47% 58% 52% 87% 77% No 27 40 37 47 52 39 46 12 22 DK/NA 5 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 2 40. Would you say that - Donald Trump has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 58% 80% 35% 61% 63% 54% 56% 60% No 39 18 63 36 34 44 43 37 DK/NA 2 2 2 2 2 3 1 3 Yes 60% 62% 58% 52% 67% 60% 64% 38% 38% No 38 36 40 43 31 37 34 60 60 DK/NA 1 2 2 5 2 3 2 3 2 41. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 46% 22% 68% 47% 44% 48% 49% 44% No 41 60 21 40 46 36 40 41 DK/NA 13 17 11 13 10 17 11 15 Yes 61% 43% 43% 35% 39% 44% 41% 59% 62% No 25 41 47 48 50 39 45 26 26 DK/NA 14 16 9 16 10 17 14 15 13 16
42. Would you say that - Ben Carson has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 40% 60% 20% 40% 43% 36% 33% 43% No 49 29 68 48 50 48 58 45 DK/NA 12 11 11 11 7 16 9 13 Yes 37% 38% 40% 44% 46% 38% 42% 34% 26% No 48 51 52 44 49 46 48 57 52 DK/NA 15 11 8 12 6 16 11 9 22 43. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 47% 70% 32% 43% 48% 45% 54% 43% No 36 17 49 40 40 33 34 38 DK/NA 17 13 20 17 12 23 13 19 Yes 40% 44% 46% 54% 52% 49% 51% 28% 43% No 36 37 41 32 39 27 33 54 38 DK/NA 24 19 13 14 9 24 16 18 19 44. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has strong leadership qualities or not? Yes 43% 69% 20% 42% 47% 38% 44% 42% No 43 17 66 43 43 43 45 42 DK/NA 15 14 15 15 11 19 11 17 Yes 40% 40% 41% 50% 51% 43% 47% 25% 31% No 37 47 48 38 40 39 39 58 53 DK/NA 23 14 11 12 9 18 14 17 17 17
45. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 46% 14% 84% 40% 37% 55% 50% 44% No 51 84 15 56 60 42 47 53 DK/NA 3 2 1 4 2 3 2 3 Yes 50% 42% 52% 42% 31% 46% 38% 80% 65% No 47 54 47 54 67 51 59 17 31 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 3 2 3 4 46. Would you say that - Donald Trump cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 36% 66% 11% 33% 43% 30% 30% 39% No 59 30 88 60 54 65 66 56 DK/NA 4 4 1 7 3 5 4 4 Yes 25% 33% 40% 43% 46% 38% 42% 9% 14% No 71 63 57 52 51 56 53 88 83 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 6 5 2 3 47. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 53% 26% 75% 59% 55% 51% 61% 49% No 35 59 15 30 37 32 31 37 DK/NA 12 15 10 11 7 16 8 14 Yes 68% 49% 57% 37% 52% 48% 50% 66% 61% No 21 37 35 46 41 34 38 21 26 DK/NA 11 14 8 17 6 17 12 13 13 18
48. Would you say that - Ben Carson cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 50% 75% 25% 53% 56% 44% 47% 51% No 38 15 64 34 36 39 45 34 DK/NA 13 10 11 13 8 17 9 14 Yes 45% 46% 52% 56% 61% 48% 55% 33% 35% No 34 43 40 32 33 35 34 55 49 DK/NA 20 11 8 12 6 17 11 12 16 49. Would you say that - Marco Rubio cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 46% 76% 25% 43% 52% 41% 51% 44% No 39 14 59 42 39 38 36 40 DK/NA 15 10 15 15 8 21 12 16 Yes 41% 42% 47% 54% 56% 48% 52% 26% 28% No 36 41 43 35 36 32 34 57 57 DK/NA 23 17 10 12 8 20 14 16 15 50. Would you say that - Ted Cruz cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not? Yes 42% 75% 17% 39% 49% 36% 39% 44% No 43 15 70 43 43 44 50 40 DK/NA 15 10 13 17 9 20 11 16 Yes 38% 41% 42% 48% 54% 42% 48% 21% 24% No 39 47 48 40 39 38 39 63 58 DK/NA 23 13 10 13 7 20 13 15 18 19
51. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 67% 34% 96% 70% 62% 71% 73% 64% No 32 64 4 30 38 27 27 35 DK/NA 1 2-1 1 2 1 1 Yes 77% 71% 67% 52% 55% 65% 60% 93% 86% No 21 28 32 46 44 33 39 7 14 DK/NA 2 1 1 2-2 1-1 52. Would you say that - Donald Trump has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 34% 60% 9% 32% 42% 26% 28% 37% No 63 37 90 64 56 70 71 60 DK/NA 3 3 1 4 2 4 2 3 Yes 27% 33% 36% 37% 47% 32% 40% 6% 17% No 70 65 61 58 52 64 58 91 81 DK/NA 3 2 2 5 1 4 3 3 2 53. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 47% 24% 68% 50% 47% 48% 50% 46% No 42 64 21 41 46 37 41 42 DK/NA 11 12 11 9 7 15 9 12 Yes 68% 46% 46% 30% 44% 44% 44% 62% 59% No 20 40 46 58 49 42 46 22 29 DK/NA 12 13 8 12 7 13 10 16 11 20
54. Would you say that - Ben Carson has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 28% 42% 14% 30% 32% 24% 21% 31% No 62 46 76 63 62 62 72 57 DK/NA 10 12 10 7 6 14 6 12 Yes 31% 23% 26% 34% 34% 25% 30% 23% 21% No 56 67 66 56 60 61 61 72 62 DK/NA 12 10 8 10 5 14 9 6 17 55. Would you say that - Marco Rubio has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 43% 67% 22% 46% 48% 39% 48% 41% No 41 20 60 39 43 39 40 41 DK/NA 16 12 18 16 9 22 11 18 Yes 40% 43% 40% 49% 52% 44% 48% 29% 27% No 35 38 51 40 40 37 38 45 54 DK/NA 25 19 9 11 9 19 14 26 19 56. Would you say that - Ted Cruz has the right kind of experience to be President or not? Yes 44% 70% 21% 44% 51% 38% 44% 45% No 41 19 63 40 40 42 47 38 DK/NA 15 11 15 16 9 20 9 17 Yes 47% 44% 41% 47% 55% 44% 50% 30% 24% No 32 40 51 40 37 39 38 53 49 DK/NA 21 16 9 13 8 17 13 18 27 21
57. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton shares your values or not? Yes 42% 8% 84% 33% 34% 51% 47% 40% No 55 91 15 60 65 45 50 57 DK/NA 3 1 1 6 2 4 3 3 Yes 45% 40% 46% 38% 27% 41% 34% 79% 65% No 53 56 50 60 71 55 63 18 35 DK/NA 3 4 3 2 2 4 3 3-58. Would you say that - Donald Trump shares your values or not? Yes 35% 65% 8% 32% 42% 28% 27% 39% No 61 30 90 62 54 67 70 56 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 5 3 5 Yes 25% 34% 39% 40% 46% 35% 41% 13% 15% No 70 64 56 55 50 59 55 82 83 DK/NA 5 2 5 5 3 6 5 5 2 59. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders shares your values or not? Yes 44% 13% 73% 47% 42% 46% 50% 41% No 44 71 17 45 50 38 40 46 DK/NA 12 15 11 9 8 16 10 13 Yes 59% 43% 45% 30% 39% 44% 42% 56% 59% No 32 45 43 54 54 39 47 29 32 DK/NA 9 12 12 16 7 17 12 15 9 22
60. Would you say that - Ben Carson shares your values or not? Yes 46% 75% 17% 50% 53% 40% 41% 49% No 43 14 71 41 41 45 51 39 DK/NA 11 11 12 9 6 15 7 13 Yes 44% 39% 49% 53% 57% 44% 51% 32% 32% No 38 53 42 36 37 42 39 55 51 DK/NA 18 8 9 11 6 14 10 12 17 61. Would you say that - Marco Rubio shares your values or not? Yes 40% 71% 15% 39% 46% 35% 44% 39% No 43 15 70 43 43 44 43 43 DK/NA 17 14 15 18 12 21 13 18 Yes 32% 35% 41% 51% 50% 42% 46% 18% 25% No 42 48 45 39 39 37 38 65 61 DK/NA 26 17 14 11 11 21 16 17 14 62. Would you say that - Ted Cruz shares your values or not? Yes 35% 68% 8% 34% 44% 27% 33% 37% No 48 15 77 50 45 51 56 44 DK/NA 16 17 15 15 11 22 11 19 Yes 27% 32% 36% 46% 49% 33% 41% 15% 21% No 51 53 49 40 41 44 43 72 64 DK/NA 22 15 14 14 10 23 16 13 15 23
63. Would you say that - Hillary Clinton would have a good chance of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 63% 34% 87% 69% 62% 64% 69% 60% No 32 61 10 27 35 30 26 36 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 4 6 6 4 Yes 68% 66% 66% 52% 56% 56% 56% 95% 73% No 30 31 29 39 40 37 38 4 22 DK/NA 2 3 5 9 4 7 5 1 5 64. Would you say that - Donald Trump would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 46% 73% 20% 47% 50% 43% 36% 51% No 49 22 77 48 47 50 59 44 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 3 7 5 5 Yes 45% 45% 46% 47% 55% 50% 53% 21% 18% No 52 50 48 46 41 42 42 77 74 DK/NA 2 5 5 7 3 8 6 1 8 65. Would you say that - Bernie Sanders would have a good chance of defeating the Republican nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 34% 17% 49% 39% 34% 34% 31% 35% No 55 75 39 51 59 52 59 54 DK/NA 10 8 12 10 7 14 10 11 Yes 54% 33% 29% 23% 30% 30% 30% 48% 53% No 39 57 61 64 64 56 60 41 32 DK/NA 7 10 10 13 6 15 10 11 15 24
66. Would you say that - Ben Carson would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 31% 55% 11% 30% 35% 28% 31% 32% No 58 34 79 60 57 59 61 57 DK/NA 11 11 9 10 8 13 9 12 Yes 28% 27% 35% 35% 39% 31% 35% 16% 20% No 59 63 58 53 55 56 55 80 55 DK/NA 13 10 8 12 6 13 10 4 25 67. Would you say that - Marco Rubio would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 39% 63% 23% 37% 43% 35% 44% 37% No 47 25 65 47 47 47 43 49 DK/NA 14 12 11 16 10 18 13 14 Yes 30% 40% 39% 48% 48% 42% 45% 19% 20% No 50 46 49 43 43 40 42 72 55 DK/NA 20 14 12 9 9 17 13 9 25 68. Would you say that - Ted Cruz would have a good chance of defeating the Democratic nominee in the general election for President or not? Yes 31% 59% 10% 28% 34% 29% 27% 33% No 55 28 78 55 56 54 61 51 DK/NA 14 12 11 16 11 18 11 15 Yes 21% 33% 31% 41% 38% 34% 36% 11% 19% No 57 54 60 47 53 49 51 80 56 DK/NA 22 13 9 12 9 17 13 9 25 25
69. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Thinking about the Democratic nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Shares values 15% 16% 13% 15% 15% 15% Cares needs/problems 27 33 36 22 27 27 Strong leadership 19 10 11 25 13 23 Honest/trustworthy 17 14 19 17 22 14 Right experience 13 14 12 14 14 12 Best chance/winning 6 13 7 4 7 5 DK/NA 3-1 2 2 3 70. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Thinking about the Republican nominee for president in 2016, which of the following is most important to you: Someone who shares your values, cares about the needs and problems of people like you, has strong leadership qualities, is honest and trustworthy, has the right kind of experience, or has the best chance of winning? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Shares values 22% 28% 28% 28% 22% 15% 27% 15% Cares needs/problems 11 6 9 7 9 17 9 13 Strong leadership 26 28 23 24 31 24 23 31 Honest/trustworthy 23 24 27 23 23 23 24 22 Right experience 6 1 3 2 5 10 4 8 Best chance/winning 8 5 7 10 8 6 7 9 DK/NA 4 8 2 6 2 6 5 3 71. (If Democrat or Democratic Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Democratic nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes? DEMOCRATS/DEMOCRATIC LEANERS... POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY LIBERAL... Mod/ Tot Very Smwht Cons Men Wom Economy and jobs 43% 40% 44% 45% 48% 40% Terrorism 8 3 5 11 5 10 Immigration 4 4 3 4 3 4 Federal deficit 3 - - 4 3 2 Health care 11 8 7 13 10 12 Foreign policy 12 14 11 11 13 10 Climate change 8 20 12 3 9 7 Race relations 2 3 2 2 2 2 Abortion 2 2 4 - - 3 Gun policy 3 3 4 2 1 3 Taxes 2 2 1 3 1 3 DK/NA 3-7 2 4 3 26
72. (If Republican or Republican Leaner) Which of these is the most important issue to you in deciding who to support for the Republican nomination for President: the economy and jobs, terrorism, immigration, the federal deficit, health care, foreign policy, climate change, race relations, abortion, gun policy or taxes? REPUBLICANS/REPUBLICAN LEANERS... Wht POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY Tea BrnAgn CONSERVATIVE Mod/ Tot Party Evang Very Smwht Lib Men Wom Economy and jobs 26% 21% 24% 23% 26% 28% 30% 20% Terrorism 24 27 24 22 27 23 19 31 Immigration 8 14 7 10 8 5 8 7 Federal deficit 8 6 11 10 8 6 7 9 Health care 3 2 2 1 3 5 2 5 Foreign policy 17 16 14 15 19 18 17 18 Climate change - - - - - - - - Race relations - 1 - - - 1 - - Abortion 3 4 6 6 4-3 4 Gun policy 4 4 5 6 1 6 6 2 Taxes 3 2 3 3 2 3 4 1 DK/NA 3 3 3 3 2 5 3 4 27