World Technology Evaluation Center International Study of Robotics Research Industrial Robots, Service Robots, and Personal Robots Vijay Kumar, University of Pennsylvania [presenter] George Bekey, University of Southern California Yuan Zheng, Ohio State University WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 1 Outline Different categories of robots Classification Who is working on what? Market analysis, trends Technical challenges International comparisons Industry Basic research Future Challenges WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 2
Industrial Robots, Service Robots and Personal Robots Industrial robots An industrial robot is an automatically controlled, reprogrammable, multipurpose manipulator programmable in three or more axes which may be either fixed in place or mobile for use in industrial automation applications (Robotic Industries Association) Service robots A robot which operates semi or fully autonomously to perform services useful to the well being of humans and equipment, excluding manufacturing operations (International Federation of Robotics) Personal robots Service robots that educate, assist, or entertain at home: e.g., domestic robots, assistive robots (for people with disabilities) Adept Flexfeeder Skywash Fanuc Palletizer Robomow Roomba WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 3 Market Industrial robotics (manufacturing) History 1961 GM installs first industrial robot (Unimate) 1968 Kawasaki starts production 1974 First microcomputer controlled robot (ABB) 1984 Robotics emerges as a discipline - first research conference Today 40+ years of industrial robotics Growth rate around 4-5% $4-5B worldwide Service robotics Robots used in industry excluding manufacturing Personal robotics Service robots that are consumer products 2002 2005 2010 2025 Service Robots Market $600M $5.4 B $17.1B (projected) $52B (projected) U.N. Economic Commission Study WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 4
Industrial Robotics: Impetus for Growth Prices have fallen over 40% over the last 15 years Quality (accuracy, payload) has almost doubled in the same period WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 5 Industrial Robotics: Applications Automotive industry accounts for over 30% of industrial robot sales, electronics industry is around 23% Application (% sales, 1990) Application (% sales, 2004) Welding Material handling Assembly Painting Processing Others 35% 33% WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 6
International Comparison Industrial Robots (1990) Industrial Robots (2004) 16% 9% 15% 14% 60% US Japan Europe Rest of of world 31% 40% US Japan Europe Rest of of world WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 9 Industrial Robots: Numbers Number of operational robots Number of units installed annually Number of robots per 10,000 workers United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE, Oct. 2004) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 10
Industrial Robotics: International Comparison WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 11 Industrial Robotics: Trends Multi-robot-workcell Conveyor belts Fixtures, clamps Synchronous flow Robot-robot-cooperation Replacement of transferdevices, fixtures Continuous flow Human-robot-cooperation Weight compensation Virtual walls Integrated quality control Courtesy H. Christensen, KTH WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 12
Service Robotics Robots find applications in 4D tasks Dull Dangerous Dirty Dumb Not just manufacturing tasks! Service robots Health care Entertainment Security Personal assistance Construction Cleaning WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 13 Service Robots: Examples Tennisball collector (GER) Swisslog (GER) Auto Mower (SWE) Electrolux (SWE) Fujitsu (JAP) Manus (NET) Pool cleaner (SWE) Window cleaner (GER) IBOT (US) Swisslog Transcar WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 14
Service Robotics: MobileRobots HP server farm: building automation Pfizer laboratory: surveillance & monitoring Victoria Secret corporate headquarters: visitor handling Crotched Mountain Rehabilitation Center: automated wheelchair MobileRobots PeopleBot MobileRobots PatrolBot WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 15 Service Robots Industry (excluding manufacturing) Category No. units Value ($ million) Field (agriculture, forestry, mining) 885 117 Cleaning/maintenance 3370 68 Inspection 185 21 Construction, demolition 3030 195 Medical robotics 2440 352 Security, defense 1010 76 Underwater 4785 1467 Laboratory 3060 37 Others 2295 110 21060 2443 Personal Category No. Units Value ($ million) Domestic 607,000 217 Entertainment 691,490 1,125 Assistive 260 2 Other 205 7 Total 1,298,955 1,351 WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 16
Maturity: Service & Personal Robots PERSONAL PERSONAL PERSONAL SERVICE SERVICE PERSONAL INDUSTRIAL INDUSTRIAL EURON report, 2004 WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 17 Market for Service Robots Trillion yen 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Robots for welfare, medical care, public services and domestic robots will dominate the robotics market 0 1995 2000 2005 2010 2025 8 trillion yen Daily life support Medical treatment and welfare Public service Manufacturing industry (FA) * Report investigating technical strategies for creating a robot society in the 21st century/japan Robot Association (JARA) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 18
Personal Robots: Entertainment Education/Hobbyist Robots Entertainment Robots Smart Toys Robotics Pets Automated Home Partner Robots Units Sold (1,000s) 2,500 2,250 2,000 1,750 1,500 1,250 1,000 750 500 250 0 625,440 2,193,240 EO 2002 2005 Service Robots Personal Robots WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 19 Research Challenges for Industrial Personal and Service Robotics Market Robots Sensing 3-D Vision Force Integration: sensor based control Mobility and manipulation Development Design, packaging, power Safety Product cost Fanuc Robotics WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 20
Research Challenges for Service and Personal and Service Robotics Market Personal Robots Mobility Manipulation Perception (Vision) Human-Robot Interfaces Autonomy Development Design, packaging, power Safety Product cost WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 21 International Survey WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 22
U.S. Industry Industrial Adept Service irobot MobileRobots Adept MobileRobots Packbot Scooba (irobot) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 23 U.S. Industrial Robotics Pharmaceuticals: Laboratory Automation D C F E H G Presentation by Dr. Zheng B A WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 24
Japan: Industrial Robotics Three major companies Fanuc, Yasakawa, and Kawasaki Fanuc 20% market share 1800 employees (1300 in research labs, 10 Ph.Ds) 10,000 robots Technology provides the competitive edge Before servo motors/amplifiers Now Software for sensing/integration robots assemble/test robots beyond human performance Fanuc F-200iB WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 25 Korea: Industrial Robotics Samsung Automatic transfer vehicle (1984) Electronic assembly robots (1985-87) First industrial robot (1989) Fully automated, robotic VCR assembly line (1991) 80486-based robot controller (1993) Vision-based inspection robot (1996) Service robots, icomar and Antor (2001) Multi-functional cleaner (2004) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 26
Fujitsu: Industrial, Service and Personal Robots 1982-85 Industrial robots 1986-96 Space robots 1995-2000 Nursing robots 2000- Human-friendly robots Personal robots Humanoid robots Fast, precise, economical industrial robots Reliable, autonomous, space robots MARON: Links to PC/Internet/cell phone Personal robot (HOAP) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 27 Japan: Sony Entertainment Robots Emphasis on Personal Robots and Humanoids SDR (2000-2003) AIBO (1998- ) QRIO (2004- ) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 28
Japan and Korea Robots for a Silver society ZMP: Nuvo humanoid robots (domestic companions) Honda ASIMO project (1986 - ) WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 29 Europe: Industrial Robotics ABB High Speed Parallel Robot Force and vision integrated assembly system Kuka Heavy duty robots (500 kg, 3m reach, +/- 0.3mm) Parallel robots for superior performance WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 30
Europe: Service and Personal Robots WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 31 International Comparisons: Quantitative Observations Networks Japan Robot Association European Network No comparable U.S. network Large Industry Europe, Asia > U.S. Small Industry, start-ups Europe, Asia > U.S. Growth rate in Asia > average Growth rate in U.S. < average WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 32
International Comparisons: Qualitative Observations Made first in the U.S., but Matured elsewhere In spite of the entrepreneurial culture in the U.S. More start-ups in Europe, Japan than the U.S. Close collaboration between government, academia and industry in Japan/Korea Concerted effort to understand big picture, develop and implement agenda Japan: Strategy for creating new industries includes robotics as one of the seven areas of emphasis Korea: Of the 10 next generation growth engines, robotics is one of them WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 33 Qualitative Comparisons: Emphasis Emphasis across different continents Basic U.S. Europe Japan/Korea Mobility **** ** * Perception **** *** *** Autonomy **** *** *** HRI *** ** * Manipulation ** * * Applications Industrial * ** *** Service ** **** *** Personal * ** **** WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 34
Qualitative Comparisons U.S. leads in basic research, but weaker link to industry Technology transfer, innovation and impact is diluted because of the lack of investment in hardware Leader in IT, but not translated into RT WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 35 Future Challenges Manipulation and physical interaction with the real world Perception for unstructured environments Safety for operation near humans Human Robot Interaction WTEC Robotics Study: Industrial, Service, and Personal Robots Slide 36