XXVII IUSSP International Population Conference - IUSSP 2013 (26-31 August 2013, Busan, Korea) What would happen if Turkey followed its Prime Minister s proposition to have at least three children : Population projections till 2050 with alternative fertility scenarios Ahmet Sinan Türkyılmaz Tuğba Adalı Assoc. Prof. Dr., HUIPS (Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies), Ankara. Research Assistant, HUIPS (Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies), Ankara. Mehmet Doğu Karakaya PhD. Student, HUIPS (Hacettepe University Institute of Population Studies), Ankara & TurkStat Expert in Turkish Statistical Institute, Diyarbakır* * This is a personal paper and non-bonding study for official statistics of TurkStat. Abstract: Turkey has gone through major fertility decline since mid 20 th century. This decline took place even faster than anticipated by earlier projections; total fertility rates declined from around 7 children per woman to replacement level today. Explicit and implicit population policies were applied during this process: Antinatalist policies replaced pronatalist policies after 1960s, with stronger emphasis on women s reproductive health. It is a matter of time before Turkey s population outnumbers the largest of Europe, making the EU candidate Turkey the most populous country of Europe in a decade. However, the current prime minister of Turkey started expressing an explicit support to the idea of three children per family in the recent years. The argument is based on the view that Turkey would otherwise end up in economic stress due to ageing in 2050s, with an age structure resembling that of European countries today. Our work stems from this argument to discuss this question: Is a three children policy the answer to Turkey s ageing problem?. We hypothesized different scenarios of varying fertility for our population projections. We analyzed the output age structures to see how dependency rates change compared to today. Our findings showed that although an increased total fertility rate would help maintain a relatively low elderly dependency ratio, the actual population of elderly would still be growing, requiring extensive planning. Furthermore, if the total fertility rate were to be increasing, child dependency ratios would also be increasing, putting even more pressure on the working population. We lean towards alternative solutions to the ageing problem in Turkey. 1. Introduction Population censuses have a long history, and census taking began at least 5800 years ago in Egypt, Babylonia, China, Palestine and Rome (Halacy, 1980). Other common methods for collecting demographic data are registration systems and sample surveys, which differ from censuses. In Turkey; after the foundation of the Republic, the first general population census was conducted in 1927, followed by another census in 1935. The censuses were quinquennial until 1990. From this date, it was decided that censuses would be held every 10 years, yet the final census was conducted in 2000. In 2007, the Address Based Population Registration System was developed by the Ministry of Interior Affairs and the Turkish Statistical Institute (TurkStat). A brand new window on demography thus opened in Turkey. Currently, annual population figures are obtained from this registration system. 1
Several authors regarded Turkey as currently being in the last stage of the demographic transition process (Canpolat,2008; DİE,1995; Yavuz,2008). Around the time when the Republic was founded, very high mortality rates were observed due to the destructive effects of the war of independence. With the war ending, general health started improving, causing a mortality decline. Fertility was known to be very high except for some big cities like İstanbul. High fertility was also encouraged by the state, as a way of making up for the lost population during the war. This era is often assumed to be the first stage of the demographic transition in Turkey. The second stage was characterized by declining fertility towards the 1960s and antinatalist policies, lasting until the 1980s. From this decade and on, fertility and family planning were rather viewed from a reproductive health perspective. However, pronatalist ideas started appearing once again in the last few years. Although no formal policy is implemented just yet, the current prime minister of Turkey shows an explicit support to high fertility, asking each couple to have at least three children. He has also made arguments against Cesarean section and induced abortion, proving how passionate he is about the topic. His main argument for high fertility seems to be ageing; which he finds legitimate given how big a problem this phenomenon is becoming in Europe. The fear is that Turkey will shrink, and lose power. Our aim in this study is to hypothetically generate the population that would consist of couples that would produce three children; and see whether this is actually the answer to Turkey s upcoming ageing problem. We came up with eight different scenarios of fertility to discuss this. We basically tried to see what would happen if the Turkish TFR were to just keep going in its own trend, what would happen if the prime minister succeeded partially, and completely. In order to produce the results of our fertility scenarious, we used population projections. Demographic changes over time have always been an important topic for governments, scientists and organizations for planning about the future. Population projection methods are employed for this purpose, which provide estimates for the past and future based on census and survey data. A forward population projection is an estimation process about the future that is based on a variety of assumptions in view of the conditions of the past. There are two basic methods of population projections: mathematical methods and component methods. The most common projection method in the world is the cohort-component method. This method adjusts a given initial population through changes in the components of population: fertility, mortality and migration. Often, the underlying theory is the demographic transition theory, where fertility and mortality change portray changes that have previously been already experienced by other countries. The official population projection method in Turkey is cohort-component method which currently used by Turkish Statistical Institute and the Ministry of Development, for national-level population projections. TurkStat has been using cohort component method for population projections since 1994 using the software FIVFIV, based on the one most likely scenario determined by expertise. We used population data from the Address Based Registration System results of the most recent year (2011) along with our predictions of mortality, and scenarios of fertility. The projections go as far as 2050. Details are presented in the data section. 2. Data Data sources are: Address Based Population Registration System (ABPRS) 2011 Database: Initial year population sizes and age(5 year group)-sex distribution by rural&urban, Internal Migration: assumed as zero, 2
Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys: All demographic sample surveys, especially the last four TDHS results (TDHS-1993, TDHS-1998, TDHS-2003, TDHS-2008) carried out by the Hacettepe University-IPS, all national estimates of demographic rates: TFR values for calculation of past trends and projecting to the future by alternative assumptions, IMR values for calculation of past trends and projecting to the future for life expectancy (e 0 ) estimations of life tables, ASFR values and % distributions of TDHS-2008 and its projected trends for initial years, Birth registration ratios from TDHS-2008, for correction of age distributions, United Nations World Population Prospects - 2010 Revision: TFR Assumptions and 8 variants (low, middle, high) of Turkey up to 2050, ASFR values and % distributions of Turkey for 2050. We used the Spectrum software, a Windows-based system. The DemProj 4 module was used in this study,. Projection unit have 8 alternative TFR trends, with a unique mortality scenario. International migration has been assumed to be constant and zero, because of the absence of adequate migration data of Turkey. Coale-Demeny Life Tables are used, assuming this pattern fits Turkish mortality the best. Data for the percent distribution of ASFR values has been acquired from TDHS-2008 data for initial percentages, and UN-WPP values for posterior values. An age correction procedure was carried out to correct the 0-4 age group population by using the TDHS- 2008 regional birth register ratios. With this method, it is assumed that population sizes of 0-4 age groups in ABPRS data are numerically lower than the real numbers of the population, which include alive and non-registered infants and children. We did not allow a change in the total population, however, so that we could maintain consistency with official statistics. We corrected the age structure through re-weighting. Our fertility (TFR) scenarios are: Figure 1. Data sources and algorithm of the assumptions 3
What would happen if TFR reached 3,00 (It is scientifically not likely to be occur, but is a tentative study), The high (2,35), medium (1,80), and low (1,35) variants of UN-World Population Prospects for Turkey, A partial increase caused by the 3 children encouragement, raising TFR to 2,50, A constant TFR at the recent value: 2,09, A short term spike in TFR by the 3 children approach, losing this pace later to decline to 2,00 and staying constant until 2050, TFR level will continue to decline according to its past trend and reach 1,60 at 2050. Figure 2. 8 alternative TFR scenarios 4
Figure 3. ASFR assumptions Figure 4. ASFR IMR and e0 assumptions 5
3. Analysis and Results The reliability of projections depend on the reliability of the demographic data which we supply for them. The outputs are hypothetical, answering only what would happen if type of questions. This study is only an answer that is chosen from the pool of the uncountable answers about forecasting the future. Figure 5. Findings for total population sizes Figure 6. Findings for annual births 6
Figure 7. Findings for ageing (size) Figure 8. Findings for ageing (percent) 7
Figure 9. Findings for total dependency ratio Figure 10. Findings for median age The preliminary results in the tables point out to some important aspects of upcoming population change in Turkey. Most of the projections have positive population growth until 2050. This is a conspicuous point showing that the long path of Turkey to the end of the third phase in the demographic transition process will not be over before 2050. Population growth rate will decline in Turkey, and will have negative values in some fertility scenarios. The resulting populations range from 82 million to 118 million in 2050. 8
The difference between the number of births per year is also very different among the scenarios. The lowest fertility scenario produces half the annual number of births today in 2050, whereas there would be one million extra births in the highest fertility scenario. We analyzed the output age structures to see how dependency rates are changed compared to today. Our findings showed that although an increased total fertility rate would help maintaining a relatively low elderly dependency ratio, the actual population of elderly would be constant in all scenarios, reaching over 17 million in 2050. This would require extensive planning, no matter how fertility changes. Furthermore, if TFR were to increase, like the prime minister wishes, child dependency ratios would be increasing, putting more pressure on the working population. 4. Conclusion This study attempted to produce different scenarios of fertility change for Turkey, to evaluate if the prime minister s proposition of at least 3 children per woman would be helpful regarding ageing problems. Although we do not think this scenario is likely, we value it, since it can show what this desire would translate into if it were to become the reality. However, no matter what policy would be implemented, we recognize that TFR is almost completely unlikely to rise as high as 3, given it s at replacement level today. The experiences of European countries that were faced with fertility declines show that it is actually very difficult to recover fertility to higher levels. The political party of the prime minister has a large group of supporters, they were elected with 47 percent of the votes in the last elections. The prime minister s message could still potentially influence large groups, but even that, we think, would not be enough to increase fertility significantly or permanently. Rapid population growth in Turkey is over; and there is no probability of re-acceleration of population growth; and it can be certainly said that annual population growth rate will continue to decline hereafter (TÜSİAD, 1999). Turkey's population growth rate will reach very low levels toward next century; it can reach zero in time and can even reach negative values. In other words, the dream of Turkey of 100 million will be probably never realized (TÜSİAD, 1999). Our main conclusion is that high fertility does not stop the formation of a 17 million population of elderly in 2050, and introduces extra burden on the working population. The idea behind high fertility is to ensure a large group of working population at all times, so that economy would not be negatively affected, however, it looks like this effect would appear even after 2050. Trying to stop TFR from further declining is more feasible and more sustainable. Policies to reverse TFR slightly, or maintain it are usually policies that ensure gender equity, allowing women to be both involved in the labor force and childbearing. These include long parental leaves, support to daycare and similar measures. As for ageing, extensive planning is required to deal with the expenditures concerning health care, social security and nursing homes. References Canpolat, Ş., (2008), Population Ageing in Turkey: Current and Prospective Co-Residence Pattern of Elderly Population, Ph.D. Thesis, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Ankara. Canpolat, Ş. and M.D.Karakaya, (2010), Türkiye Nüfusundaki Yaşlanma Profilinin Dünü, Bugünü ve Geleceği: Bölgesel Örüntüler (Yesterday,Today and Future of the Ageing Profile of Turkey Population: Regional Pattern, Social Service Symposium, (9-11 December 2010, Ankara, Turkey), Ankara University, Oral Presentation (in Turkish). Coale, A.J. and P. Demeny, (1966), Regional Model Life Tables and Stable Populations, Princeton, Princeton University Press. 9
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