Nivesh Daily Currency 15 July, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 67.03-0.25 0.67 1.93 67.1517 67.0583 66.9167 URINR 74.60 0.34-1.43 0.24 74.9583 74.6442 74.3908 GBPINR 89.45 0.44-3.83 1.42 90.1475 89.2875 88.7575 JPYINR 63.57-0.95-3.99-3.88 64.0567 63.6533 63.1267 Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close Change in % Dollar Index 96.10-0.27 EURUSD 1.1121 0.28 GBPUSD 1.3342 1.49 JPYUSD 105.38 0.84 * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR 27 July,2016 Expiry Option Update Closing. Options LTP %Chg %ChgOI Prev. OI% Chng OI CE 67.00 0.2125-32.54 8.38 18.64 177275 CE 67.50 0.0675-43.75-3.15 23.79 187340 CE 68.00 0.03-33.33-6.5 4.96 203141 CE 68.50 0.0175-22.22-0.37-10.32 215911 CE 69.00 0.01-33.33 0.18-1.75 257889 PE 67.00 0.2075 50.91 2.61-2.16 207254 PE 67.50 0.565 28.41-19.27 0.76 138418 PE 68.00 1.0175 16.95-3.53-13.99 139060 PE 68.50 1.5675 16.33 2.3-1.41 49905 PE 68.50 1.9775 7.47-8.45-10.68 4846 RBI Reference Rate (July 14, 2016) Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is indicating negative move in USDINR. Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 66.9136 88.5468 74.3544 63.3800 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( July Future) Dollar rupee ended at one-month low Thursday on likely overseas fund inflows into local shares amid dollar selling by foreign banks and the dollar index traded down Friday from previous day as investors risk appetite for riskier assets surged after the Bank of England hinted it would launch fresh stimulus. Technical, USDINR extended its recent bearish trend and after hitting a low of 66.9650 settled at 67.0125 levels. A breakdown of crucial support 67.20 and Head & shoulder pattern breakdown is indicating for bearishness in USDINR and any rise towards 67.15-67.20 is expect to attract short term selling activities. Recommendation : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 67.03 67.15-67.20 66.97-66.80 67.35 Daily Chart Important Factor: U.S. CPI m/m EURINR ( July Future) Euro little changed during afternoon trades Wednesday as investors across the globe await Bank of England monetary policy meeting due later tomorrow. Sell strategy given around 74.70-74.80 was initiated, but pair yet to test predicted level of 74.25, day low as 74.3325 same as previous day low, while forming similar bottom candle stick pattern. This formation is indicating for bearish reversal in EURINR. Further, pair would need to trade below its previous swing low in order to test 74.00-73.65 and below. Recommendation LTP Buy around Target Stop loss 74.60 74.45-74.50 74.80-75.00 74.30 Daily Important Factor : Final CPI y/y
GBP ( July Future) The pound jumped to the highest level since late June against the dollar on Thursday after the Bank of England kept monetary policy unchanged; dashing expectations for a rate cut, but signaled that it will ease monetary policy at its August meeting. After hitting a low of 88.4275 compare to previous day close 89.2275, GBPINR saw a sharp bounce back and tested 89.8175 levels. However, pair yet failed to break above 23.8% Fibonacci Retracement which is indicating for bearishness in GBPIN, unless pair gives a closing above 89.85. Above 89.85 will expect to test 90.25-90.50. Recommendation : LTP Buy above Target Stop loss 89.45 89.85 90.15-90.50 89.65 Daily Chart Important Factor : BOE Gov Carney Speaks JPYINR (July Future) Yen traded near three-week high Thursday as investors expect the Bank of Japan to ease in it policy meeting later this month after the government's dimmed outlook over the world's third largest economy. JPYINR extended its recent bearish trend, and sell strategy given below 64.05 was successful with pair drop towards 63.25 before closing at 63.53. A breakdown of double top pattern is found on EOD chart which is indicating for drastic fall in days to come and any rise towards 63.80-64.0 expect to attract huge selling activities. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around 63.85-64.00 Stop loss 63.53 Target 63.40-63.20 64.15 Daily Chart Important factor/data from Japan : NIL
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier today India's wholesale price index-based inflation accelerated to a 20-month high in June led by higher food prices mainly vegetables, cereals and wheat. Wholesale price index-based inflation quickened to 1.62% in June, its third straight month of gain, compared to 0.79% rise in May, and government data showed Thursday. Further, WPI for the month of April was upwardly revised to 0.79% compared to 0.34% provisional. Swiss PPI rose to a seasonally adjusted 0.1%, from 0.4% in the preceding month. Despite market expectations for a rate cut, the Bank of England (BoE) decided to leave rates unchanged at a record low and hinted that a move for more stimulation could possibly come in August. The monetary policy committee of the BoE voted eight to one to leave interest rates on hold at 0.5% and to leave its quantitative easing program unchanged at 375 billion. The central bank gave a clear indication that it will ease monetary policy at its next meeting in August. Chinese Retail Sales rose to an annual rate of 10.6%, from 10.0% in the preceding month. Chinese Industrial Production rose to 6.2%, from 6.0% in the preceding month. Chinese GDP remained unchanged at an annual rate of 6.7%, from 6.7% in the preceding month. Chinese Fixed Asset Investment fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.0%, from 9.6% in the preceding month. U.S. Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending July 9 was unchanged at 254,000. Analysts expected jobless claims to increase by 11,000 to 265,000 last week. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact 7:30am CNY GDP q/y 6.60% 6.70% Negative CNY Industrial Production y/y 5.90% 6.00% Negative CNY Fixed Asset Investment ytd/y 9.40% 9.60% Negative CNY NBS Press Conference - - - CNY Retail Sales y/y 9.90% 10.00% Negative 15th-16th CNY M2 Money Supply y/y 11.40% 11.80% Negative 15th-16th CNY New Loans 1000B 986B Positive 1:30pm EUR Italian Trade Balance 3.27B 4.52B Negative 2:00pm GBP Construction Output m/m -1.10% 2.50% Negative 2:30pm EUR Final CPI y/y 0.10% 0.10% Neutral EUR Final Core CPI y/y 0.90% 0.90% Neutral EUR Trade Balance 25.2B 28.0B Negative 5:30pm GBP BOE Gov Carney Speaks - - - 6:00pm USD CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral USD Core CPI m/m 0.20% 0.20% Neutral USD Core Retail Sales m/m 0.40% 0.40% Neutral USD Retail Sales m/m 0.10% 0.50% Negative USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 5.1 6 Negative 6:45pm USD Capacity Utilization Rate 75.20% 74.90% Positive USD Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.40% Positive 7:00pm GBP CB Leading Index m/m - 0.00% - 7:30pm USD Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment 93.7 93.5 Positive USD Business Inventories m/m 0.10% 0.10% Neutral USD Prelim UoM Inflation Expectations - 2.60% - Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency
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