Energy Environmental Strategy and CCS エネルギー 環 境 問 題 とCCS Kenji Yamaji 山 地 憲 治 Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth (RITE) 地 球 環 境 産 業 技 術 研 究 機 構 革 新 的 CO 2 膜 分 離 技 術 シンポジウム @ 第 一 ホテル 東 京 2012 年 9 月 28 日
エネルギー 政 策 の 基 本 目 標 と 福 島 事 故 で 既 存 された 項 目 (Fundamental Objectives of Energy Policy and Damaged Items by Fukushima Disaster) 3E エネルギー 安 全 保 障 (Energy Security) 経 済 性 / 成 長 (Economics/Growth) 環 境 適 合 性 (Environment) ( 準 ) 国 産 自 主 開 発 備 蓄 多 様 化 核 燃 サイクル 外 交 地 政 学 (domestic resources, upstream investment, reserve, diversification, fuel cycle, diplomacy ) グリーンイノベーション/ 成 長 システム 輸 出 総 合 エネルギー 産 業 (green innovation/growth, export of systems, energy service co. ) + 発 電 コスト 再 評 価 (review of power costs) 低 炭 素 社 会 ゼロエミッション 電 源 省 エネ CCS (low carbon society, zero emission power, energy saving, CCS ) +S 安 全 性 ( 安 心?) (Safety (Trust?)) 温 暖 化 のリスク (risk of global warming) ( 温 暖 化 懐 疑 論 ) (skepticism) 放 射 線 のリスク (risk of radiation exposure) ( 低 線 量 被 曝 の 科 学 の 不 確 実 性 ) (scientific uncertainty) 自 然 エネルギーの 魅 力 ( 自 然 共 生 ) 核 融 合 の 魔 力 ( 技 術 の 夢 ) ピークオイルの 説 得 力 ( 資 源 制 約 ) (renewable energies (natural symbiosis), nuclear fusion (science magic), peak oil (resource constraints)) 2
Structure of Climate Change Response Measures Mitigation (CCS) Geo engineering Adaptation 3
Energy-related CO2 emissions and reductions (GtCO2/yr) 60 50 40 30 20 10 Baseline emission: 57 GtCO2/yr Halving global emission: 13 GtCO2/yr 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 17% 14% 15% 11% 5% 12% 9% 1% 16% Power sector: CCS Power sector: renewable energies Power sector: nuclear power Power sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switching among fossil fuels Other energy conversion sector Residential & commercial sector Transportation sector Industrial sector: CCS Industrial sector: efficiency improvement & fuel switching Net CO2 emission Role of CCS in Deep Cut of Global CO2 Emission Source: K. Yamaji and K. Akimoto: CCS for Global Warming Mitigation RITE (ed.), New Development of CCS Technologies, CMC Shuppan, 2011 4
Energy Technology Perspectives 2008 (IEA) 5
Importance of Electricity Sector More than 40% of primary energy is used for power generation Electricity can be produced from variety of energy resources, notably from non carbon resources CCS can be applied to fossil power plants Electricity is clean and efficient in end use Efficient supply of low temp. heat by heat pumps Prospects for electric vehicle (PHEV,EV) But, Difficulty in large and long distance transmission Stability of supply (voltage, frequency): smart grid? Difficulty for mobile use: batteries? 6
Impact of Efficiency Improvement of Coal fired Power Plants If best plant in Japan prevailed US China Japan India 1.3 billion ton of CO2 could be reduced in US, China, and India 7
Concept of CCS Separation/Capture Transport Injection Injection Onshore aquifer CO2 CO2 Large scale emission source Offshore aquifer CO2 CO2 CO2 8 8
CCS Status: Roadmap 2010 2020 2030 Technology establishment Capture Cost:4200JPY/tCO 2 2000sJPY/tCO 2 Capture Chemical absorption Membrane Successive Cost reduction Extended applicable gasses Pre-combustion 1500JPY/tCO 2 1000sJPY/tCO 2 Successive Cost reduction Extended applicable gasses Others Basic research Application study Successive Cost reduction Extended applicable gasses Storage Geological Storage Safety Assessment Confidence building Demonstration Technology establishment Full-scaled Implementation Increase Storage sites Cost reduction 9
Nagaoka Project (CO 2 Geological Storage) 10
Development of Safety Assessment Technology Reservoir Evaluation Analysis of CO2 Leakage Geological Modeling CO2 Monitoring Simulation of CO2 Behavior Leakage Scenario Simulation of CO2 Leakage Geological Model Environmental Impact Analysis History Matching Analysis of CO2 Behaviour Risk Analysis Long Term CO2 Behavior Estimation BPM & ISO for Storage and its Safety Analysis CO2 Risk Analysis Objectives BPM: Best Practice Manual, ISO: International Organization for Standardization 11
CCS Demonstration Project Phase Fiscal Year* 2008 09 10 11 12 - Investigation Phase Demonstration Phase METI Subsidized Project Development of Assessment Technologies and Site Screening for Large scale CCS Demonstrations METI Commissioned Project Demonstration of CO2 Reduction Technology NEDO Commissioned Project Feasibility Study CCS Total System CO2 capture at IGCC and store at an offshore depleted gas field Today 12
Geological Survey at Tomakomai Candidate Site Tomakomai City Survey well Survey (2010) Well Survey well (2011) 3D Seismic (2009) 3D Seismic (2010) Currently a geological evaluation is being carried out and a basic plan for a large scale CCS demonstration is being completed for this site. 5km 13
International Cooperation of RITE
GHGT 11 11 th International Conference on Greenhouse Gas Control Technologies November 2012 - Kyoto will welcome experts in greenhouse gas control technologies from across the world! 1. Dates : Sun. 18 Thur. 22 November, 2012 2. Venue : Kyoto International Conference Center, Japan 3. Organizers : RITE & IEAGHG 4. Call for Paper open : Late-September, 2011 GHGT-10 Plenary session Themes are: Capture; Geo Storage; Other Storage; Industrial sources; Transport; Negative CO2; CO2 utilisation options; Demonstration; Tech Assess & Integration; Commercial Issues; Public Perception; Policies; Legal & Regulatory; Education, training, and capacity building 5. On-line Conference Registration Early Bird open: Late-April 2012 / Late on-line registration: Late-July 2012 November 17th, 2012 6. Programme Overview ( Subject to change) AM PM Night Sun.Nov. 18 Mon. Nov. 19 Tues. Nov.20 Wed. Nov.21 Thurs. Nov.22 Welcome and Keynote Plenary Session Plenary Session Plenary Session Address Technical Session 4 Technical Session 7 Technical Session 10 Technical Session 1 Technical Session 5 Technical Session 8 Technical Session 11 Technical Session 2 Poster Session A Poster Session B Panel Discussion Technical Session 3 Technical Session 6 Technical Session 9 Closing Session Registration and Welcome Reception 7. Website http://www.ghgt.info/ Networking Reception Conference Dinner GHGT-10 : Poster session 15
(being reviewed) 16
Kenji Yamaji 120118 17
Fukushima Disaster on March 11, 2011 Before After Kenji Yamaji 111122, Abu Dhabi 18
Targets in current strategic energy plan Renewables: 20% Nuclear: 50% Fossil fired: 30% Power Generation Mix in 2030 Impossible after Fukushima 0, 15, 20 25%? depending on the recovery of public trust on nuclear safety How to fill the gap of reduced nuclear power? 1. Further energy savings: ambitious targets are incorporated in current strategic energy plan behavioral change using ICT as well as efficiency improvements 2. More renewables: PV: 53GW and wind power10gw in current strategic energy plan power system stability issue smart grid?; more geothermal, more small hydro, more biomass by FIT policy 3.Clean use of fossil fuels: notably natural gas, clean coal incl. CCS, international applications of Japanese efficient technologies 19
160 $/MMBTU $/Barrel 25 140 20 120 15 10 100 80 60 LNG Price up After Fukushima 5 40 20 0 0 07/1 07/4 07/7 07/10 08/1 08/4 08/7 08/10 09/1 09/4 09/7 09/10 10/1 10/4 10/7 10/10 11/1 11/4 Recent Price Trends of Natural Gas and Oil Source: Japan Gas Association 20
Fukushima Japan (CIF) UK US Natural Gas Prices in UK, US, and Japan for 2005 2012
A Key for Green Innovation: Smart Energy Network 22
Low Carbon Society (renewable energies ) Smart Community (ICT, internet, sensor network ) Stability of Power System (smart grid, smart meter, smart energy network ) Energy Saving by behavioral change Smart House, Smart City (HEMS, BEMS ) Integrating Supply Side with Demand Side (power grid and automobile integration ) Reform of Energy Systems ICT Security (cyber terrorism, privacy protection ) New Economic Growth (global standards, systems competitiveness ) Scheme of Energy-Information Integration 23
Reconstruction of Energy Policy as well as Climate Change Response Measures Keep Nuclear Option: enhanced safety measures, risk communication of low level radiation exposure Personal View by K. Yamaji Further Energy Saving: behavior change using ICT as well as further energy efficiency improvements Maximum Introduction of New Renewables: FIT, using the opportunities of restoration (biomass in debris, damaged land ), smart grid Clean Use of Fossil Fuels: natural gas, clean coal(a USC IGCC CCS) carbon free H 2 (brown coal+ccs), bilateral offset credits Resilience of Energy System: more integrated energy network, integration of centralized and decentralized energy system with ICT 24
Thank you for your attention! Join us on GHGT 11, in Kyoto, 2012! 財 団 法 人 地 球 環 境 産 業 技 術 研 究 機 構 Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth URL:http://www.rite.or.jp 25 1225