Jul-08 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 1 Permits soar 37% in March. METRO PHOENIX HOUSING STATS MARCH 2015 By RLBROWNREPORTS-MAGIC PRO VOL 365 It s about time that the Phoenix housing market really saw some signs of recovery, and March permits for new homes soared to the highest level since July 2008, with 1,373 permits issued between Maricopa and Pinal counties. NEW HOME CLOSINGS Mar-15 SALES BY MONTH 954 SAME MO LAST YEAR 856 PERCENT CHG 11.4 YTD CLOSINGS 2,286 YTD CLOSINGS LAST YR 2,239 PERCENT CHG 2.10% AVG NEW PRICE 356,214 MED NEW PRICE 300,466 MED PRICE % CHANGE 3.26% PERMITS Mar-15 PERMITS BY MONTH 1373 SAME MO LAST YR 1003 PERCENT CHG 36.89% YTD PERMITS 3,214 LAST YTD PERMIT 2,578 PERCENT CHG 24.67% RESALES Mar-15 RESALES BY MONTH 8,552 SAME MO LAST YR 6,636 PERCENT CHG 28.87% YTD RESALES 19,017 LAST YTD RESALES 20,602 PERCENT CHG -7.69% AVG RES PRICE 249,287 MED RES PRICE 194,000 MED PRICE % CHANGE 2.11% 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 1493 METRO PHX PERMITS 1373 The graphic above tracks permit activity across the region from July 2008 until the present and shows the roller coaster ride of the new home marketplace over the period. The dotted red line depicts the six month moving average of permit activity of the period. 1500 1000 500 LAST 6 YEARS MARCH PERMITS 908 645 1036 1258 1003 1373 Green = positive market outlook This analysis/data has been developed by the authors from the government record. Copyright 2015 RLBrownReports All rights reserved including the right to republish in any form or to quote from without specific permission. 0 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15
2 NEW HOME CLOSINGS - LAST 6 MONTHS 980 803 1006 620 712 954 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 PERMITS LAST 6 MONTHS 1373 710 612 977 799 1042 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 RESALES LAST 6 MONTHS 8,552 6,742 5,427 6,938 5,326 6,117 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Source: Data Summary Quick View Report in Vol 365 of Magic Pro
3 The best-selling new home communities offering detached housing based on closings in March are plotted on the map below. Communities plotted are those with 6 or more closings for the month. Housing hot spots in March 2015 are shown by the yellow icons on the map Created using the Absorption data set in Vol 365 of Magic Pro. Screen shot from Magic Pro Vol 365 Absorption Data Set 9 [Best-selling community is #1, etc.] Homebuilder rankings for March 2015 are based upon permits for the month. The table ranks the top builders by permits. A full ranking showing all builders active in the marketplace is available in The Sales and Permit Report and in Magic Pro. The table shows builders with 30 permits or more in March. PERMITS MAR 15 COE MAR 15 BUILDER MONTHLY PERMIT RANK MISC CUSTOM 111 41 TAYLOR MORRISON 105 64 MERITAGE HOMES 104 68 PULTE HOMES COMBINED 90 58 LENNAR HOMES 78 40 RYLAND HOMES 64 30
4 SHEA HOMES 60 24 KB HOME 58 35 MARACAY HOMES 52 31 RICHMOND AMERICAN 46 38 D R HORTON 43 61 K HOVNANIAN 42 46 BEAZER HOMES 36 37 MATTAMY HOMES 34 22 TOLL BROTHERS 30 15 Source: Data Summary Quick View Report in Magic Pro Vol 365 Taylor Morrison and Meritage Homes dominate in March permit rankings The market share capture of the leading builders by permits for March is depicted below. K HOVNANIAN MATTAMY HOMES BEAZER HOMES TOLL BROTHERS 3% MISC CUSTOM 12% D R HORTON RICHMOND AMERICAN TAYLOR MORRISON 11% MARACAY HOMES MERITAGE HOMES 11% KB HOME 6% SHEA HOMES 6% RYLAND HOMES 7% LENNAR HOMES 8% PULTE HOMES COMBINED 9% The top active new home communities by permits for the month of March are shown below. A full ranking, including 12 month and year to date, is available in The Sales and Permit Report and in Magic Pro includes a calculation for the last 12 months and for the year to date for each new home community.
5 Ryland and Beazer lead in community rankings for March permits COMMUNITY BUILDER PERMITS MAR 15 SENTIERO/60/LEGACY RYLAND HOMES 17 7 MORNING SUN FARMS 4C BEAZER HOMES 17 15 COE MAR 15 SUNLAND SPRINGS VILLAGE FARNSWORTH DEV 16 6 FAMILY TROON /RIDGE CONDOS DEVELOPMENT 15 0 LAVEEN MEADOWS 4,14/PARKE ELLIOTT HOMES 15 1 CUSTOM - S (MC) MISC CUSTOM 15 5 SOLANA TOWNE CENTER/VILLAGES RYLAND HOMES 14 0 RIVERWALK 3/ESTATES ELLIOTT HOMES 14 1 PULTE HOMES/DEL SUN CITY FESTIVAL WEBB 13 8 ESTRELLA MTN RCH/CANTAMIA AV HOMES 12 6 PALM VALLEY 9 MATTAMY HOMES 11 6 ROBSON PALM VALLEY/PEBBLECREEK COMMUNITIES 11 14 COPPER BASIN 5B D R HORTON 11 9 GREER RANCH 2-63 SHEA HOMES 11 5 MORRISON RANCH DESERT PLACE 1/2 LENNAR HOMES 11 10 MERRILL RCH/ANTHEM/VISTA & CACTUS PULTE HOMES 11 6 JOHNSON FARMS 1,2,3,7B/TRILOGY ENCANTERRA SHEA HOMES 10 3 COUNTRY PLACE 4/11,12 MERITAGE HOMES 10 0 PULTE HOMES/DEL SUN CITY ANTHEM @ MERRILL RANCH WEBB 10 6 MULBERRY PARCELS 1,2,3 BLANDFORD HOMES 10 0 PINNACLE WEST VERRADO PARCEL 3308 HOMES 10 4 SAN TAN HEIGHTS A7,C8/DISCOVERY LENNAR HOMES 10 2 MAGMA RANCH 1-1,2-2 LGI HOMES 10 0 COURTLAND SARAH ANN RANCH 2/MOUNTAINSIDE COMMUNITIES 10 0 Source: Data Summary Quick View Report in Magic Pro Vol 365 Master Planned community rankings in March 2015 by permits issued show Vistancia leading in major amenity communities and Sunland Springs Village the leading active adult master plan [MPC Type: B=major amenity general, C=active adult. Active adult communities or segments shown highlighted in yellow.]
6 Vistancia tops master planned community permits rankings for March while Eastmark leads in closings MARCH MARCH MASTPLAN MPCTYPE PERMITS COE VISTANCIA 37 19 B VERRADO 34 22 B PALM VALLEY 23 11 B EASTMARK 16 27 B SUNLAND SPRINGS VILLAGE 16 6 C TROON VILLAGE 15 0 B SUN CITY FESTIVAL 13 8 C CANTAMIA @ ESTRELLA MTN R 12 6 C PEBBLECREEK 11 14 C MERRILL RANCH 11 6 B ENCANTERRA @ JOHNSON FARM 10 3 C DC RANCH 10 2 B MULBERRY 10 0 B SUN CITY ANTHEM @ MERRILL 10 6 C ESTRELLA MTN RCH 9 12 B RANCHO EL DORADO 7 2 B DESERT MOUNTAIN 6 1 B FOOTHILLS 6 7 B VERRADO ACTIVE ADULT 5 0 C VISTANCIA ACTIVE ADULT 5 1 C JOHNSON RANCH 4 5 B LITCHFIELD PARK 3 4 B MAGIC RANCH 3 4 B ROBSON RANCH 3 5 C EASTMARK/ENCORE 2 0 C MOUNTAIN BRIDGE 2 18 B Source: Data Summary Quick View Report in Magic Pro Vol 365 March 2015 performance by market area for traffic, new orders, and spec inventory as reported by Sales Associates are shown in the following tables and graphs. A careful study of traffic, new orders and specs can lead to conclusions about future permit and closing activity by market area as well as shifts in demand by market area.
7 AREA TRAFFIC CENTRAL 200 MESA- GILBERT 9738 1183 4557 971 1172 2260 5605 TEMPE- CHANDLER 1580 27266 A tightening of the race between the East and West Valley for new home dominance is becoming evident 8% TEMPE- CHANDLER 6% 20% TRAFFIC MESA- GILBERT 36% CENTRAL 1%, 4557, 17% AREA NEW ORDERS CENTRAL 13 MESA-GILBERT 494 32 262 68 61 55 230 TEMPE-CHANDLER 74 1289
8 The Mesa-Gilbert area continued to lead the West Valley in New Orders reported for March, 568 vs 492. TEMPE- CHANDLER 6% NEW ORDERS CENTRAL 1% Spec inventory counts between East and West Valley follow trend and show builder confidence 18% 20% MESA-GILBERT 38% 3% AREA SPECS CENTRAL 0 MESA-GILBERT 371 44 142 51 56 63 195 TEMPE-CHANDLER 50 972 The East Valley is ahead of the West Valley in spec count this month, with 421 for the East Valley and 337 for the West Valley.
9 TEMPE- CHANDLER 20% 6% 6% SPECS CENTRAL 0% MESA-GILBERT 38% 1 Next we examine the March 2015 permit and closing activity and market share by geographic submarket area. MARCH PERMITS TEMPE-CHANDLER MESA-GILBERT CENTRAL 18 32 61 106 90 74 257 298 437 0 100 200 300 400 500 The combined Southwest and Northwest submarkets captured 555 permits in March, eclipsing the Mesa-Gilbert and Tempe-Chandler total of 498 permits for the period, demonstrating that the balance of power in new home activity may have shifted from the East Valley to the West Valley.
10 22% MARCH PERMITS TEMPE- CHANDLER CENTRAL 1% MESA-GILBERT 32% 8% 2% 7% 19% MARCH CLOSINGS TEMPE-CHANDLER MESA-GILBERT CENTRAL 14 39 38 42 72 67 159 183 340 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Mesa-Gilbert and Tempe-Chandler lead in new home closings over the West Valley, 379 to 342 for the month.
11 19% MARCH CLOSINGS TEMPE- CENTRAL CHANDLER 1% MESA-GILBERT 36% 8% Pinal-West has lowest average March new home closing prices Scottsdale the highest 7% 17% The median new home price in metro Phoenix for March increased from February by just over 3%, as depicted in the graphic below. The dashed line is a linear trend line of the monthly median price calculations. 310,000 Median New Home Price - March 305,000 300,466 300,000 295,000 290,000 285,000 280,000 291,205 y = 23.883x - 702464 Resale median prices in March rose an almost identical percentage amount, to $194,000 versus the $300,466 calculated for new homes that closed in March.
12 The table below shows the average new home closing price for March 2015 by submarket area followed by a table of the average base prices in each area. AVG NEW HOME COE PRICE MARCH 2015 TEMPE-CHANDLER $407,085 MESA-GILBERT CENTRAL $279,707 $209,370 $226,353 $311,836 $402,510 $367,530 $325,742 $744,941 AVG MARCH BASE NEW HOME PRICE TEMPE-CHANDLER MESA-GILBERT CENTRAL $319,634 $258,373 $179,553 $175,014 $309,820 $375,495 $322,787 $333,381 $658,406 In the tables below we examine new-home closing prices by city for March 2015.
13 Tolleson has lowest March new home closing prices, followed by El Mirage and Casa Grande CITY AVG MARCH COE PRICE APACHE JUNCTION $353,418 AVONDALE $227,650 BUCKEYE $244,508 CAREFREE $776,192 CASA GRANDE $190,551 CAVE CREEK $620,970 CHANDLER $419,216 EL MIRAGE $190,706 ELOY $254,164 FLORENCE $222,116 FTN HILLS $757,894 GILBERT $391,702 GLENDALE $661,662 GOLD CANYON $998,000 GOODYEAR $322,723 LAVEEN $228,506 LITCHFIELD PARK $485,570 MARICOPA $207,094 MESA $335,253 PEORIA $326,196 PHOENIX $316,716 PINAL COUNTY $617,233 QUEEN CREEK $350,400 SAN TAN VALLEY $228,503 $908,626 SURPRISE $263,569 TOLLESON $173,418 WADDELL $246,427 Lastly, we examine the distribution of closing prices of new homes in March for homes priced below $800k via the graphic on the next page. Take a moment to visit our webpage at www.rlbrownreports.com for a look at the reports and services that we offer to the Phoenix housing community. You can order and download many of our reports right from the webpage and you can always call us at 480-614-0211. Thank you!
14 DISTRIBUTION OF NEW HOME MARCH COE PRICES 790000 740000 690000 640000 590000 540000 490000 440000 390000 340000 290000 240000 190000 140000 90000 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 Our view of the marketplace.. The news for Metro Phoenix housing turned very positive with the March housing data in just about every single category. New-home permits were the big news, with the 1,373 permits that we counted representing a 36.89% increase from the permit count of last March when we counted 1,003 new-home permits. Year to date 2015 overall for the metro area including Maricopa and Pinal counties we are 2 ahead of the same time last in year permits! If we can hold up the pace it s clear that we will exceed our forecast projection for 2015. Our March 2015 permit count was the best permit count we have seen since July 2008 and bring smiles to the faces of those who waited for an improvement that could seriously be counted on as a sign of a long-awaited recovery.
15 Maricopa County showed the majority of the gains with permits in the county up 28% year to date from the same time last year while Pinal County was up only 0.32%. Closings were also strong, up 11.4 from last March. The March closing total for the region as a whole was the second-best closing month we have had in the last six years. Year to date closings were up 5.9% in Maricopa County but down 19. in Pinal County. Resales for the region also responded with an increase in March by almost 29% after a series of marginal or down months. But, resales for Maricopa County were still off 11% for the year to date while Pinal County resales were up 6.6% ytd. Our Magic Pro housing data application is the region s most respected source of housing market data! It s complete, accurate, timely and affordable for any level of user. New Orders reported by sales Associates also accelerated in March suggesting the potential for continued strength in permit activity in the future. New home median prices increased 3.26% and resale median prices rose by 2.11% after several months of generally flat median price performance. A $106,000 gap between new and resale median prices will continue to be a dampener for the new home side of the market and hold the new-home market share capture of housing activity in the range of 10%, well below the traditional 30-3 for this marketplace. Experienced housing producers recognize that we will not regain the kind of new housing velocity we enjoyed in the past unless we can increase the market share capture for new homes, and that will take a combination of innovative product, profitable but competitive pricing, and continuing improvement in transportation infrastructure to make the outlying areas acceptable to future housing consumers. Much of the new home activity in March occurred in new communities with fresh new product across a relatively broad spectrum of new home pricing and the growing strength of the West Valley continues to challenge the long dominant East Valley for new home market share capture. There appears to be near-term-reasonable supplies of available lots in most of the areas of hotspot activity and there is a substantial amount of development activity in or near those housing hotspots, especially in the West Valley. As subscribers know, we track the remaining lot inventory at the subdivision level every month. So far builders have been able to find lot inventory replacements in or near the current housing hotspots and most have been able to withstand the temptation
16 to move much beyond those hotspots, however you know we can expect some testing of that in the midterm future. Builders appear confident with starting spec inventory, which is also a sign of general confidence in the marketplace by both builders and their financiers. In combination all of these factors continue to promote a generally optimistic outlook for both new and resale housing in the region. That certainly is not to say that there are not challenges ahead both on the broader national and global economic front but also on the need to reestablish housing purchases as a viable opportunity for starter families and for singles. Stay tuned! Have a great and profitable day! Home Builders Marketing, Inc. Greg Burger - President RL Brown Founder and Chairman If you are not a subscriber to Magic Pro you might not be aware that subscribers receive a series of special Executive Summary Reports via email each month. These 3-4 page professional-level reports provide the kind of analysis of market activity that allows insight into the nooks and crannies of this housing market, and these reports are free of charge to subscribers. Call Greg Burger at 480-614-0211 for the details and to learn how we can become the report person for your organization, creating those recurring reports needed for the home office or for internal use.