Natural Gas Hub Development and the Asian LNG Market Plenary Session 3, Structure of Asian Markets for Energy Commodities Bradford G. Leach Principal, Energy Advisory Services 5th IAEE Asian Conference February 15, 2016 Perth, Australia
Energy Benchmark Characteristics Commodity Price Reference Regional or National Value Communication Strategic Supply/Demand Relevance Pricing Derived from Competitive Market Operations Transparent Delivery Procedures Established Regulatory Structure Access to Reliable Physical Delivery Delivery Infrastructure Available to New Market Participants
Standard Delivery Function Standard Delivery Futures Contract Location Operation and Costs Must Be Transparent and Non-discriminatory Ensures that Futures and Cash Market Values Converge Enables Participants to Close the Futures Contract Obligation with Physical Delivery Exchange of Futures for Physicals Alternative Delivery Procedure
Henry Hub Background In 1988, Sabine Pipe Line initiated Henry Hub service at the Henry Gas Processing Plant near Erath, Louisiana Sabine was a wholly owned subsidiary of Texaco. Chevron acquired Texaco and became the next owner/operator of the Henry Hub. Chevron sold Sabine Pipe Line and other midstream assets to Enlink (ENLK) in November 2014. In 1990, NYMEX launched its first natural gas futures contract which incorporated the Henry Hub as the standard delivery location. The current Henry Hub transportation service provides hub service among 10 inter and intrastate pipeline interconnections. ENLK charges a discounted rate of 4 cents per MMBtu for hub service related to the 10 pipeline interconnections and between these locations and the Sabine Hub Services Intra-Hub Transfers (IHT) agreement. IHT is a title transfer service and is provided on a non-jurisdictional basis Why was the Henry Hub selected by NYMEX?
Louisiana and Central Gulf of Mexico Bcf/Day Production 12.00 10.00 8.00 6.00 4.00 2.00 0.00 North LA South LA Central GOM and State Offshore Source: LA Department of Natural Resources
1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Percent of Louisiana OCS of Total U.S. Annual Natural Gas Consumption 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Source: EIA and LA Department of Natural Resources
Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 Feb-13 Apr-13 Jun-13 Aug-13 Oct-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 Apr-14 Jun-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Dec-14 Feb-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Selected Platts LA Market Location Monthly Deal Counts 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 CGT LA FLGas Z-2 Sonat LA TN 500 TN 800 TXE ELA TXE WLA TX G SL Henry Hub
JAN-05 JUN-05 NOV-05 APR-06 SEP-06 FEB-07 JUL-07 DEC-07 MAY-08 OCT-08 MAR-09 AUG-09 JAN-10 JUN-10 NOV-10 APR-11 SEP-11 FEB-12 JUL-12 DEC-12 MAY-13 OCT-13 MAR-14 AUG-14 JAN-15 JUN-15 NOV-15 66 Platts Henry Hub Monthly Deals 49 46 49 47 45 49 37 41 38 35 39 40 23 22 23 15 16 18 14 12 12 9 7 8 23 13 14 10 8 29 30 26 2828 29 23 111 30 17 16 16 13 10 10 28 28 29 28 26 24 25 24 22 2424 26 20 2021 222 22 18 16 14 1212 10 6 5 6 2 18 13 13 14 10 8 3 29 21 18 17 11 8 5 19 10 4 5 8 2020 21 2020 22 20 15 161515 16 13 14 12 11 11 12 8 7 91112 10 9 10 9 9 111 12 10 9 7 5 6 3 4 5 2
314 100 438 1 186 170 179 127 112 189 239 429 459 832 253 538 128 123 538 154 466 308 291 632 147 99 240 336 481 135 336 255 206 79 247 284 151 528 839 625 538 385 625 1025 251 315 736 432 461 454 551 274 549 359 274 215 279 387 132 189 404 217 276 504 170 359 504 156 159 33 107 25 183 95 48 171 135 203 171 30 378 334 273 80 108 150 778 523 52 110 523 260 240 403 213 200 56 152 363 285 160 134 285 123 104 288 178 270 115 89 134 156 129 80 156 246 251 151 239 50 203 241 20 105 160 65 123 62 75 132 8290 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 JAN-05 JUN-05 NOV-05 APR-06 SEP-06 FEB-07 JUL-07 DEC-07 MAY-08 OCT-08 MAR-09 AUG-09 JAN-10 JUN-10 NOV-10 APR-11 SEP-11 FEB-12 JUL-12 DEC-12 MAY-13 OCT-13 MAR-14 AUG-14 JAN-15 JUN-15 NOV-15 Platts Henry Hub Monthly Volumes From 2004-2015 000's MMBtu/Day
3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 1,500,000 Henry Hub Delivery Operating Capacity and Scheduled Quantity (MMBtu) 148,686 141,277 114,965 72,327 133,338 65,471 133,771 71,065 137,951 127,849 96,368 1,000,000 500,000 - Op Cap TSQ
U.S. Shale Production Areas
Annual Increase in Shale Production Compared to Conventional Production
Physical Hub Characteristics Strategic Hub Location Trusted Physical Operator Transparent Facility Fees Non-Discriminatory Third Party Facility Access Sufficient Facility Transfer Capacity Access to Storage at or Close to the Facility Facility Operator Interest in Business Development Delivery/Storage Expansion Capability
Financial Hub Characteristics Services that Complement Physical Facility Operations Title Transfer/Book Transfer Henry Hub Intra-hub Transfers (IHT) Facilitates Title Transfers at Low and Known Cost Anonymous Sourcing through IHT Can Be Offered by Operator or Third Party
The Asian Natural Gas Market Asia is the Fastest Growing Natural Gas Consumption Market LNG Is the Primary Natural Gas Supply Regional Natural Gas Markets Are Not Uniformly Connected By Pipelines Increasing Focus on Pipeline Delivery Historical Natural Gas Pricing is Based on Oil-Based Indexation Increasing Interest in Gas-to-Gas Competitive Pricing Development of LNG Price Indices Asia Lacks a Natural Gas/LNG Physically Delivered Trading Hub
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 $25.00 Monthly Brent Spot in MMBtu $21.63 $20.00 $15.00 $10.00 $5.00 $8.23 $6.55 $-
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13 Jan-14 Apr-14 Jul-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Brent Spot MMBtu and the Henry Hub Spot Price $25.00 $21.63 $20.00 $15.00 $19.46 $10.00 $6.55 $5.00 $1.95 $4.62 $- $1.93 Henry Hub Brent MMBtu Difference Source: EIA
Cheniere Energy LNG Pricing Henry Hub means the final settlement price (in USD per MMBtu) for the New York Mercantile Exchange s Henry Hub natural gas futures contract for the month in which a relevant cargo s delivery window is scheduled to begin; Under the SPAs, the customers will purchase LNG from Sabine Pass Liquefaction for a price consisting of a fixed fee plus 115% of Henry Hub per MMBtu of LNG. Source: Cheniere SEC Filings
Cheniere Energy Long-Term LNG Pricing Example Henry Hub Final Settlement for February 2016: $ 2.19 115% of Final Settlement: $ 2.52 Liquefaction Fee: $ 3.50 Total Price Without Shipping Cost: $ 6.02 ICE Brent on 1/27/16: $33.10 MMBtu Conversion: $5.71
Asian LNG Market Pricing Developments Platts Japan Korea Marker (JKM) Launched in February 2009 Daily Market on Close Price Assessment of Bids, Offers, and Trades Increasing Interest in Spot and Short-Term Deals Exchange Cleared JKM Futures Intercontinental Exchange Launched JKM Cleared Swap in 2012 (Converted to Futures) 24 Consecutive Trading Months Listed 3/16-12/16 Open Interest of 750 Contracts as of 2/11/16 CME Group Launched JKM Cleared Swap Futures in 2012 12 Consecutive Trading Months listed No Open Interest or Recent Trades
Asian LNG Market Pricing Developments 9/14: FOB Singapore SGX LNG Index Launched by SGX and EMC 9/12/14: Japan OTC Exchange (JOE)Lists LNG Non-Deliverable Forward Contract 1/25/16: SGX FOB Singapore SLInG LNG Futures and Swaps Launched 2/22/16: CME Group to List LNG DES Japan RIM Futures to Clear JOE trades
Mar-16 Apr-16 May-16 Jun-16 Jul-16 Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 ICE JKM and SGX SLlnG Daily Settlements for 2/11/16 $6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $- ICE JKM SGX SLlnG
Singapore Developments Government/Energy Market Authority Support Energy Hub Development Development and Operation of the Singapore LNG Corporation SGX Launch of FOB Singapore SGX LNG Index, Swaps, and Futures Increased Competition in the Commodity Exchange Sector 2014: ICE Acquires Singapore Mercantile Exchange renamed ICE Futures Singapore
Summary Henry Hub selected due to its location which was relevant to the developing interstate spot market and the related access to Gulf production Physical deals and volumes have steadily declined along with OCS and Gulf regional onshore production Henry Hub continues to be relevant as a benchmark for U.S. Gulf pricing. The start of LNG Gulf exports is a supporting factor through conditioned on world LNG pricing Asian natural gas market interest in alternatives to oil indexation Multiple LNG price indices have developed since 2009: JKM, SGX LNG Index, and RIM. JKM is the most visible to date. The ICE JKM futures contract is the most active as to volume, open interest, and forward pricing. A physically delivered hub location has not yet developed. Such a location could form the foundation for a physical and financial benchmark for Asian natural gas.
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