AEROSPACE 2050 The Future of Aviation & Space 18th Hamburg Prof Graham Roe Fellow of the RAeS
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions
Aerospace 2050 - Introduction The Global Aerospace Industry CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions
Aerospace 2050 My Background March 2013
Aerospace 2050 The Sum of my Career! 45 years = 17 aircraft types 9 Prime contractors in 6 countries 1 000 000+ air miles 500 000+ hotel points
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Military CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 Vietnam Cold War 1970
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 Aircraft In Service Just Launched
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 The Royal Air force 1970 to 2010 Major Platforms Personnel 1200 250000 1000 200000 800 150000 600 400 100000 200 50000 0 0 1950 1970 1990 Present 1950 1970 1990 Present
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 Combat Aircraft 1350 Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real 2008) 1200 1050 900 Millions 750 600 450 300 150 0 100.8 32.6 9.0 2.1 Spitfire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018) Years/Aircraft
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Military 1970 to 2010 Precision Attack 400 Circular Error Feet 300 200 100 1970 s 1990 s 2000 s 2010 s 1980 s
Aerospace 2050 Military 2010 Annual Sales of Aircraft GDP of CYPRUS Annual Sales of Weapons GDP of GABON $15bn $15.4bn $7bn $7.2bn 1995-2010 - 3750+ Fighter Aircraft built worth 170bn 173 countries have Air Forces There is a current active inventory of 27000+ Military Aircraft in the World
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry UK Military Air Operations 2010 Expeditionary Maritime Protection of UK Airspace
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry UK Military Post SDSR 2010 Expeditionary Maritime Protection of UK Airspace
Aerospace 2050 Military 2010 Business Trends Multi Activity Contracts Service Provision TLCM Offset
Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Military 2010-2050 The Global Aerospace Industry The Price of Combat Aircraft Cost per Unit Military Fighter Aircraft (Real 2008) 1350 1200 1156.3 1050 Millions 900 750 Advanced Trainer Bomber Aircraft Electronic Platform Aircraft Fighter / Strike Aircraft Primary Trainer Aircraft Transport/Tanker Aircraft 4% 10% 2% 4% 7% 4% 600 450 341.5 300 100.8 150 2.1 9.0 32.6 B2 $2.2Bn 0 Spitfire (1943) F-4 Phantom (1968) Tornado (1993) Typhoon (2018) Future+1 (2043) Future+2 (2068) Years/Aircraft
Aerospace 2050 Military 2010-2050 Threats TECHNOLOGY NEW APPROACHS GLOBAL WAR ON TERRORISM (GWOT) FAILED STATES
Aerospace 2050 Military 2010-2050 Technology Global reach Smaller Signature control Autonomy Upper Atmosphere Network Simulation Remote Power Better Management Less Instant effect
Aerospace 2050 Military 2010-2050 Market Trends Global Accessible Combat aircraft market (new builds & upgrades) 40000 35000 30000 US$ millions (2008 prices) 25000 20000 15000 Total Committed 10000 5000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Aerospace 2050 Military 2050 - UK Tanker Transport Strike ISTAR
Aerospace 2050 Military 2050 New Weapon SPACE MANNED STRIKE UCAV LONG ENDURANCE PERSISTENT STRIKE Hyper Sonics Morphing UAV BULK DELIVERY TIME SENSITIVE STRIKE GLOBAL REACH Micro Air Vehicles
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Commercial CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Commercial 1970 - In-service B727 BAC 1-11 DC 8 USA B707 Caravelle EUROPE Comet Electra
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Commercial 1970 First s DC 10 L10-11 B747 1 st Commercial Flight across Atlantic Concorde goes Supersonic
Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Commercial 1970 to 2010 The Global Aerospace Industry
Aerospace 2050 Commercial 2010 Annual Airframe Sales $40bn GDP of United Arab Emirates $41bn 16000 Commercial Aircraft in World-wide use Approx 3000 Commercial Aircraft parked! New Aircraft delivered in 2010 - >1000 160+ Airlines World-wide 72 Civil Airports in the UK and over 8000 Globally 4.9 trillion RPK flown in 2010 or approx 3.5k return trips to the Sun
Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010 3000+ Aircraft 9000+ Aircraft
Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010 3600 Aircraft
Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2050 In Transition? Low Cost Operators Single Type Fleets Fleet Restructuring Point to Point Routes
Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2050 The market Drivers Speed vs Efficiency Issues Passenger Growth Route Structures Value of time Economics vs Size
Commercial Aerospace Sector - 2010 to 2050 Congestion Operational Impacts Tilt Rotors Land Side Growth High Speed Trains Ultra Large Aircraft
Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2010 to 2050 Environmental Considerations Emissions Noise Sonic Boom
Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2030 Aircraft in Service Size 2010 2030 Large 491 1800+ Twin Aisle 2400 7000+ Single Aisle 9000+ 19000+ Regional 3600+ 5600+ Total 16000+ 33400+ Source Airbus / Boeing 20 Year Aircraft Demand by Size Size New Value ($bn) Large 1800 530+ Twin Aisle 7000+ 1600+ Single Aisle 19000+ 1300+ Regional 2100+ 70+ Total 29900+ 3500+
Aerospace 2050 Commercial Aerospace Sector 2010 to 2030 Forecast Deliveries Total Air Transport Aircraft Demand for 2009-2028 2500 Annual Deliveries 2000 Increased: 30,299 Baseline: 24,787 Decreased: 18,600 1500 1000 Marco Economic 500 Increased : Low Oil World GDP Growth "Increased" 2009 Baseline Forecast 2027 2025 2023 2021 2019 2017 2015 2013 2011 2009 0 "Decreased" Baseline: Oil $50 Decreased : High Oil Depressed GDP Source BAE Systems PS
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 New Configurations Novel Configurations Blended wing Low Slow Flight Solar Powered Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 New Operations Park and Ride Modular Aircraft No Runway MAGLEV Launch Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008 Pre Boarding
Commercial Aircraft Sector - 2050 Extended Ranges Flight Refuelling Air Carrier Formation Flight Source ACARE Out of the Box 2008 Nuclear
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry - Space CONTENTS Introduction Military Commercial Space Questions
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 1970
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 1970 to 2010
Aerospace 2050 Space 1970 to 2010 30 25 Over 5,400kg Number of Satellites 20 15 10 5 0 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Near-Term 4,200 to 5,400kg Manifest 2,200 to 4,200kg Below 2,200kg Long-Term Demand Forecast Launches 1957 to 2008 Trends in GSO Satellite Mass Distribution
- INTRODUCTION Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 Annual Global Space dependent business GDP of Belrus Annual Satellite Sales Jamaican GDP Annual Launch Services $55bn $55bn $9bn $8.9bn $12bn 42 commercial Companies operate 210+ Satellite Systems Over 4000 launches since 1950 60+ means of getting into space
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2010 Back to the Future Space Shuttle OUT Spacex Falcon / Dragon
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2010 Parking is Difficult!
Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 But there is a Plan! The Global Aerospace Industry DARPA - PHOENIX
Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050Industry Space The Global Aerospace 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand Broadcast Two Way Typically 32 Transponders / Satellite
- CUSTOMER REQUIREMENTS - SPACE Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 to 2050 Commercial demand Logistics Tracking Tele Medicine Multi Media Financial Transactions
Aerospace 2050 Space 2010 to 2050 Military demand Rapid Access Leverage Commercial Assets Contractor Provided Services Global Strike
The Aerospace Global Aerospace 2050 Industry Space 2050 Mission to Mars Commercial access Space Liner
Aerospace 2050 Aerospace 2050 Concluding Remarks The Global Aerospace Sector has a future. The Military Aerospace is Global The Military Aerospace going Autonomous The Commercial Aerospace Customer are changing their Demands The Commercial Aerospace Sector is going Greener The Space Sector searching for cheaper ways to BOLDLY GO The Space Sector is focused on commercial ways to access space