Metsä213 Joint session of the ECE Committee on Forests and the Forest Industry and the FAO European Forestry Commission Market developments in Turkey Ramazan BALI Director of market research section
Main economic indicators and trends Turkish economy is the 17th biggest economy Economic growth is quite high with 5,1% average GDP growth in last 1 years in spite of adverse effect of global economic crises Strong banking system, low budget deficit (,3 %of GDP) and low public debt (36% of GDP) are strengths High payment deficit is the main weakness Economic recovery slowdowned, after strong recovery witnessed in 21 and 211 by 8.9% and 8.5% GDP Growth in 212 and the first half of 213 are 2,2% and 3,7% Overall picture of construction and furniture sectors look strong
TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE GDP ODUN Growth ODUN ARZ rates TALEP DURUMU DURUMU 12. 1. 9.4 8.4 9.2 8.8 8. 6.9 Annual GDP Growth rates 6. 4. 2.. 5.3 4.7 3.7 2.2.7 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213Es 2. 4. 6. 4.8
Construction Indicators according to construction permits Despite moderate increase of building number, Dwelling unit number and floor area are increasing rapidly This means taller buildings larger dwellings Changing construction techniques and multistorey buildings cause less wood usage Number of building and floor area 3 25 2 15 1 5 79 Number of building (1) Floor area (million m2) Number of dwelling unit (1) 547 33 16 23 7 163 62 57 46 17 36 77 75 43 5 6 585 123 125 17 114 96 179 54 518 14 11 139 95 92 82 745 652 168 152 124 17 12 13 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Number of dwelling unit
Furniture sector Furniture sector, the most important area for wood products consumption, has been growing fast since 2 Rapid growth of the sector thanks to strong domestic demand and dramatic increase of export 12 1 Wood furniture export and import volues 13 Export import Value Million $ 8 6 4 2 Export İmport 215 135 8399 93 58 53 65 29 15 342 155 52 517 517 39 242 255 276 21 652 222 765 287 251 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
TÜRKİYE DE Suply TÜRKİYE DE source ODUN of ODUN industrial ARZ TALEP wood DURUMU DURUMU 76% of demand met by public production 6% Most of private production is made from poplar plantation in agricultural land Import amount and it s share are decreasing as a result of taxation and other restrictions 18% 76% GDF Private Import
Public forest source 9.6 mil. ha allocated for wood production out of 21.7 million ha public forest 45 4 35 3 42 34 Total Allocated for production Annual increment is quite higher than felling 25 2 15 21.7 19 19 There is quite big potential for additional felling 1 5 9.6 Forest are mil. Ha. İncreament mil. m³ Felling mil. m³ Round wood Production mil. m³
Roundwood TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE production ODUN ODUN ARZ from TALEP puplic DURUMU DURUMU forest Industrial roundwood production doubled in last decade Strong demand by panel industry Satisfying price Policy priority of GDF Ambitious strategic plan targets (2 mil m³ ind. wood and 5,8 mil m³ fuel wood production in 217) 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 732 1178 14424 179 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213Es. GDF Ind. Wood production Total End. wood counsuption
Price trends of wood products $/m3 Roundwood prices are relatively high General trend of prices is flat, 16 14 12 3rd clas pine sawlog 3rd clas beech sawlog Small sawlog Chipswood Pulpwood 158 19 116 Sawlog price is slightly downward The price fall in 213 is mainly caused by oversupply Constant prices: 211 (TL/$ : 2,2) 1 8 6 4 2 43 77 67 14 81 7 35
24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU DURUMU Pine sawlog monthly auction sales and prices Unsold Sold Price 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 1 8 6 4 2 Amount (1 M3) 29 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 21 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 211 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 212 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Aralık 213 Şubat Mart Nisan Mayıs Haziran Temmuz Ağustos Eylül Ekim Kasım Price TL.
Wood industry Wood industry is composed of too many enterprises (23,83) employ 118, worker The industry is being consolidating The development performance are well over than manufacture industry in terms of turnover, production value and value added Development performance and potential of wood working industry branches are significantly different from each other Particle board, fibre board, pallet and other packing equipment production have increased strongly in recent years, but massive parquet, sawnwood and plywood branches witnessed serious problems
TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Production TÜRKİYE DE capacity of ODUN particle ARZ TALEP and fibre DURUMU board industry 1 m³/year 6,9 6,6 6,3 6, 5,7 5,4 5,1 4,8 4,5 4,2 3,9 3,6 3,3 3, 2,7 2,4 2,1 1,8 1,5 1,2 9 6 3 Particle board Fibre board 2,384 792 5741 5189 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 21 23 25 27 29 211 213 Beside new investments, renovation and capacity expansion continues apace, especially in fibreboard branch
TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Particle and TÜRKİYE DE fibre ODUN board ARZ production TALEP DURUMU and consumption Production increased paralleling investments The increase of fibreboard production is more striking, by 5% rise Amount 1 m³ 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, Particle board prod. Fibre board prod. Part. Board comsuption Fibre board consumption 5 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
Sawnwood production and consumption Sawnwood production showed flat trend between 1993 and 21 Since 22, production and consumption have been increasing depending on increasing pallet and packing equipment demand The increase of consumption is more visible Hard sawnwood market seems to contract Amount (1 m³) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 soft sawnwood tropical hard sawnwood 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 borial hard sawnwood total consumption
TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Trade of wood products Chapter 44: Wood and Articles of Wood; Turkey is net importer of wood products in total. Export value is lower than half of import Value Million.$ Import 561 791 11561159 198 929 731 455 535 51 573 162 1575 1428 329 335 287 282 24 23 168 23 1996 1997 1998 1999 2 21 22 653 658 7 86 76 72 69 64 23 19 114 24 143 2 246 33 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213Es. Export
Trade of wood products by assortments Turkey is net importer of roundwood, sawnwood and plywood but exporter of secondary processed wood products Import increase of chips and sawnwood is very sharp Chips import rise to 3 million mt. in 212 from 5 thousands in 22 Value million $ 35 3 25 2 15 1 5 316 Import Export 147 4 222 13 39 28 112 74 323 295 299 14 161 232
Trade of wood products Import and export balance changed absolutely in last decade Major reasons are; High cost of domestic production including taxation and transport Decrease of sawlog import depending on restrictions Demand for high quality sawlog 1 m³ 12 1 8 6 4 2 Import Export 953 99 667 626 634 664 469 431 457 196 236 178 168 159 1 122 58 44 49 28 39 41 27.5 29 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212
Wood Energy TÜRKİYE DE TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU DURUMU Wood energy Woodpulp production In spite of incentives for energy generation from wood, there is no substantial investment yet The competitive and politic strength of panel industry beside concerns about wood raw material availability are main factors discourage investments Woodpulp Four plants closed in last decade because of insufficient competitiveness and hard global market conditions Only one is working with 75 mt production Paper and paper bord production, consumption and import increase significantly
Certification Total certificated forest area is 1.8 million hectare and certification process is continuing in another.68 million ha forest area Felling from certificated forest is 2.4 million m³, equal to 15%of totall felling All certifications is by FSC National certification scheme (PEFC) is being developed
prospects of markets Considering the increase of construction permits and high performance of furniture sector, slightly market recovery can be expected for 214, but European market conditions and political instability in middle east will be determining factors Capacity expansion of panel industry likely to continue but at lower speed. Possible investment in wood energy and cheaper good import are main threats The rapid increase of roundwood production from public forest likely to continue Slight price rebound is forecasted in 214
TÜRKİYE DE ODUN ARZ TALEP DURUMU Conclusion TÜRKİYE DE and ODUN prospects ARZ TALEP DURUMU THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATENTIONS of ramazanbali@ogm.gov.tr