Organisation and exploitation of renewable energy systems LECTURE 2 Calculations for cash flow models 1 2 1
1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0-500.000-1.000.000 Exploitation Important parameters for the economical feasibility: Total costs of investment Maintenance and operational costs Revenues Energy Station Geothermal energy return on investment Distribution Network Houses Utility heating (40 ºC) heating (70 ºC) cooling (15 ºC) Cash flow model 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 investment connection fee replacement Annual cashflow [ ] costs 3 revenues cash flow line - 1.500.000 period [years] 4 2
No benefits, no renewable energy... Energy Company Standing fee GJ price Energy supply Energy consumption IRR 5 Content 5 6 3
Stakeholders traditional Real Estate investor (owner) Energy Company Stakeholders renewable Real Estate investor (owner) Energy Station House User investment Energy company House 7 Distribution Network User heating (40 ºC) cooling (15 ºC) energy Geothermal energy 8 4
Stakeholders renewable Real Estate investor (owner) Geothermal energy Total costs of enegy before Energy Company energy investment House Energy Company compensation ESco new total costs of energy contract period operational period User heating (40 ºC) cooling (15 ºC) Organisation profits after contract period 9 10 10 5
Business as usual Standing fee 1.400,00 1.200,00 1.400,00 1.200,00 1.000,00 1.000,00 800,00 800,00 600,00 600,00 400,00 400,00 200,00 200,00 0,00 0,00 GAS 1.400,00 1.200,00 1.000,00 800,00 600,00 Business as usual: USER OWNER DISTRICT HEATING Standing fee gas bill standing fee gas maintenance + CONNECTION FEE + STANDING FEE COOLING GJ bill extra costs for electric cooking standing fee 1.400,00 1.200,00 1.000,00 800,00 600,00 gas bill standing fee gas maintenance finance and depreciation 11 NO CONNECTION FEE 400,00 400,00 USER 200,00 200,00 OWNER GJ bill extra costs for electric cooking 0,00 GAS 0,00 DISTRICT HEATING standing fee 12 6
2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0-500.000-1.000.000-1.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0-500.000 Standing fee connection fee 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 period [years] Standing fee no connection fee 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Annual cashflow [ ] Annual cashflow [ ] costs revenues cash flow line costs 13 revenues cash flow line - 1.000.000-1.500.000 period [years] 14 7
Business as usual GJ price P heat = CV gas Pgas *η heating Pheat = Price per GJ Pgas = Gas price per m3 CVgas = Calorific Value gas ηheating = Performance gas boiler Business as usual GJ price P = heat 0,5 / (0,9 *0,036) = 15,43 per GJ 15 Pheat = Price per GJ Pgas = Gas price per m3 CVgas = Calorific Value gas ηheating = Performance gas boiler 16 8
District heating and cooling Energy supply Pump energy Performance installations Residential building Energy Station Heat and cold storage Distribution Network Geothermal temperature Houses Energy supply Cooling and heating an office building Performance installations Utility heating (40 ºC) heating (70 ºC) cooling (15 ºC) 100 meter House Heat loses 17 Geothermal energy Distribution Network Pump energy Geothermal temperature heating (40 ºC) cooling (15 ºC) 18 9
Energy supply Energy demand office building 2500 Vermogen Required energiecentrale power (kw) [kw] 2000 1500 1000 500-500 -1000 warmtelevering door pieklastketels Gas boiler (25%) 0 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 verwarmen Heating Jaar [uren] Energy curve optelling vermogens ruimteverwarming [watt] 20.000 Vermogens m2 floor WP'sspace warmtelevering door mijnwater i.c.m. Geothermal warmtepompen heat pump (75%) Geothermal cooling koudelevering door mijnwater icm warmtepompen Energy supply Energy demand office building Year in hours Cooling Cooling 3.000 GJ/ year House koelen 8760 19 Heating 10.000 GJ/ year Heating: 10.000 * 15,43 = 154.300,- Cooling: 3.000 * 7,95 = 23.850,- = 178.150,- 20 10
Energy consumtion Performance of installation energy station Energy station COP boiler = 0,9 (25%) COP heat pump = 4,0 (75%) COP cooling = 20 (100%) Pump energie = 3% Heat loses 150 GJ/ year Energy consumption Heating 10.000 GJ/ year Cooling 3.000 GJ/ year gas boiler = 0,25*(10.150/0,9) =2917 GJ heat pump = 0,75*(10.150/4) =1969 GJ cooling = 3.000/20 = 150 GJ pump energie = 0,03*13.150 = 395 GJ Heat loses 150 GJ/ year Heating 10.000 GJ/ year Cooling 3.000 GJ/ year 21 22 11
Energy station Energy consumption Internal rate on return gas = 78.318 m3 = 39.159,- electricity = 679.896 kwh = 67.990,- total consumption = 107.149,- total supply = 178.150,- Heat loses 500 GJ/ year IRR Heating 10.000 GJ/ year Cooling 3.000 GJ/ year is a rate on return used in capital budgetting to measure and compare the profitability of investment can be calculated with the cash flow model NPV N = n= 0 C n (1+ r) n = 0 23 NPV = Net Present Value r = rate on return Cn = cashflow n = period 24 12
2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0-500.000-1.000.000-1.500.000 2.000.000 1.500.000 1.000.000 500.000 0-500.000 NPV = 0 connection fee 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 period [years] 1 (1+ r) IRR (1+ r) 2 Future value C1 C 2 C3 NPV = investment + + + + etc. = 0 IRR 3 (1+ r) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 Annual cashflow [ ] r = 9,5% Annual cashflow [ ] costs revenues cash flow line costs 25 revenues cash flow line no connection fee - 1.000.000-1.500.000 period [years] C1 C 2 C3 NPV = investment + + + + etc. = 0 r = 7,4% 1 (1+ r) (1+ r) 2 3 (1+ r) 26 13
If the IRR is greater than the cost of capital, the project is economically feasible. If the IRR is less than the cost of capital, reject the project. 27 14