Nivesh Daily Currency February 10, 2016 Currency Pivot Levels Currency % OI % Prev OI Close Pair Change Change %Change R * Pivot S* USDINR 68.13-0.08-5.44-6.96 68.3367 68.2183 67.9942 EURINR 76.35 0.62 5.47-6.19 76.7075 76.3775 76.0100 GBPINR 98.45 0.09-4.84-4.67 98.6567 98.4458 98.1792 JPYINR 59.01 1.02 5.36 13.31 59.4825 59.2050 58.6950 Foreign Currency Update. Currency Pair Close % Change Dollar Index 96.04-0.35 EURUSD 1.1293 0.89 GBPUSD 1.4472 0.28 JPYUSD 115.13-0.62 * R= Resistance. S = Support USDINR February Expiry Option Update Closing. Options Close % Chg OI % OI Prev. OI % CE 67.50 0.7175-8.01 222284 0.34 0.44 CE 68.00 0.4075-13.76 231825-3.43-1.51 CE 68.50 0.2125-21.3 525396 8.64 22.25 CE 69.00 0.095-29.63 247450 0.05-15.97 PE 67.50 0.105-8.7 194751 2.12 3.42 PE 68.00 0.295-0.84 274339 1.22 8.25 PE 68.50 0.59-1.67 160429 2.55 1.93 PE 69.00 0.9625 0.00 8236 7 3.92 Note: Previous day movement of Option, OI and IV is negative move in USDINR. RBI Reference Rate ( 9 February 2016) Seema Yadav Research Analyst Tel: +91-0731-4262702 seema.yadav@indianivesh.in 1 USD 1 GBP 1 EURO 100 YEN 68.1623 98.2696 76.3827 59.3900 India Nivesh Securities Limited SEBI Registration No.INH000000511 601 & 602, Sukh Sagar, N. S. Patkar Marg, Girgaum Chowpatty, Mumbai 400 007. Tel: (022) 66188800
Technical View on Major Currency Pair USDINR ( February Future) The Indian rupee depreciated for the third straight day Tuesday tracking overseas funds outflow from local equities on concerns over global economic slowdown, while bond yields rose for the second day on concerns over liquidity and debt oversupply. Technical Review USDINR retraced from the day high 68.4425 and tested 68.10 before closing at 68.1125 levels. Near term trend is expect to remain negative unless pair give a closing above 68.60. Today, correction is expected to come below the 68.06 levels coincide with 161.8% Fibonacci Retracement of previous rally, else wait for rise towards 68.45-68.50. Recommendation : LTP Sell below Target Stop loss 68.13 68.05 67.85-67.60 68.25 Important Factor: U.S. Fed Chair Yellen Testifies EURINR ( February Future) Euro fell Tuesday after Germany's weak industrial production data and dismal trade data from euro-zone's largest economy increased fears of more stimulus from the European Central Bank ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's testimony before the Congress. Technical Review: EURINR remained volatile on Tuesday also and after witnessing a gap up opening at 76.50 tested 76.0475 and settled at 76.34 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of Spinning top candle stick which is indicating for bullish trend reversal. Today, correction is expected to come on rise 76.60-76.55. On the other hand, sustain and close above the previous swing high 76.75 may extend positive move towards 77.00-77.20 levels. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell around Target Stop loss 76.35 76.60-76.55 76.20-76.00 76.75 Daily Important Factor from Europe: Italian Industrial Production m/m
GBP ( February Future) Pound traded flat Tuesday ahead of the UK's December trade balance data even as investors wait the Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen's congressional testimony set for later Wednesday. Technical Review: After hitting a high of 98.7125, GBPINR witnessed pull down and settled at 98.39 levels. Intraday price action resulted in formation of doji candle stick which is indicating for indecisive move in days to come. Near term support is seen at 98.10 and correction will expect to come below this levels only, else positive move likely to continue towards 98.60-99.00. Recommendation : LTP Sell below Target Stop loss 98.45 98.10 96.80-96.50 98.35 Important factor/data from U.K.: Manufacturing Production m/m JPYINR (February Future) Japanese Yen hits its lowest since November 2014 against the dollar as steep declines in global equity markets supported demand for safe-haven assets. USD/JPY hit lows of 114.23, a level not seen in 15 months, before pulling back to trade at 115.39, off 0.39% for the day. Technical Review JPYINR continued its bullish move for seventh consecutive day and settled with 1.02% gain. However gains was not sustainable and after hitting a high of 59.7150 JPYINR witnessed pull down towards 58.9275 before closing at 58.97. Today, a break below 58.80 only could extend the pull down towards 58.40-58.00. Recommendation/ View : LTP Sell below 58.80 Stop loss 59.01 Target 58.40-58.00 59.00 Important factor/data from Japan : PPI y/y
Major Economic Data & Events Released Yesterday/Earlier German industrial production dropped unexpectedly in December and exports were also down from November, a sign that Europe's largest economy ended 2015 on a weak note. German Industrial production, adjusted for seasonal swings and calendar effects, fell 1.2% from the preceding month, the economics ministry said Tuesday. U.K. country's goods trade deficit fell to a seasonally adjusted 9.92 billion from a deficit of 11.50 billion in November. Economists had expected the goods trade deficit to narrow to 10.4 billion in December. U.S. Labor Department said that the number of job openings, excluding the farming industry, increased to 5.607 million in December from 5.346 million a month earlier. Analysts had expected the number of job openings to rise to 5.400 million. Major Economic Data & Events Schedule today Time Currency Economic Indicators Forecast Previous Possible Impact All Day CNY Bank Holiday - - - 1:15pm EUR French Industrial Production m/m 0.20% -0.90% Positive 2:30pm EUR Italian Industrial Production m/m 0.30% -0.50% Positive 3:00pm GBP Manufacturing Production m/m 0.00% -0.40% Positive GBP Industrial Production m/m -0.10% -0.70% Neutral 8:30pm GBP NIESR GDP Estimate - 0.60% - USD Fed Chair Yellen Testifies - - - 9:00pm USD Crude Oil Inventories - 7.8M - 11:31pm USD 10-y Bond Auction - 2.09 2.8 - Impact: High Low Medium Note: Economic data expectations are based on median forecast by economists or Reuters and Bloomberg survey. Here positive impact indicates currency could appreciate and negative indicates currency could depreciate in comparison with US Dollar. Technical Chart Source: Ticker News Source: Ticker news, Forexfactory.com, forexlive.com and investing.com *Dos Depends on Statement. DOV Depends on Votes. Source - investing.com & ticker news. IndiaNivesh Research Nivesh Daily Currency
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