Outlook of Ultrabooks, Tablets and Smartphones Michael Wang Macronix Int l Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012
Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
The Mobile Era Devices / Users Computing Growth Drivers Over Time, 1960-2020(E) (MM in Log Scale) 1,000,000 More than just phones 100,000 10,000 1,000 100 10 1 Mainframe Increasing Integration Minicomputer 10MM+ Units PC 100MM+ Units Wired Internet 1B+ Units / Users Mobile Internet 10B+ Units?? 10X more devices Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook PDA Car electronics Mobile games Home appliances 1MM+ Units 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 (Source: Morgan Stanley Research, 2011)
Trends and Transitions Multi-persons One-device to One-person Multi-devices Multi-persons One-device Analog Telephone One-person One-device Mobile Telephone One-person Multi-devices Mobile Devices
Consumer Usage Patterns for Different Devices Source: Gartner,2012 March
Mobile Market Trends Apps Search Multi-tasking Video Social
Mobile Data Traffic Exabytes (10 18 ) per month of mobile data traffic 10.8 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.2 6.9 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Trends driving mobile data 3G/4G subscriber growth Mobile devices booming Higher speed broadband connectivity Shifting to cloud computing Source: Cisco data, Macquarie Research, 2012 March
Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
Mobile Storage - What s Desired Density: Continue scaling Power: Longer battery life Size: Thinner & Lighter Cost Down (As always) Response: Instant on Reliability: Fit application smartly
NAND Mobile Storage Trend USF 1.0 3Gbps UFS 2.0 6Gbps Bandwidth & Functionality emmc 4.3 52MHz Boot Sleep emmc 4.4 emmc 4.41 DDR Multiple partition Trim HPI emmc4.5 HS200 RTC Packed command Sanitize command Data tag 2008 2009 2010 2011
Mobile DRAM - What s Desired Higher Bandwidth Graphics performance & high resolution display Higher Density User applications & Multi-tasking Miniaturization Thinner & Lighter Mobility Always on / always connected Lower power/longer battery life
Source: Elpida Mobile-DRAM Trend
Mobile Packaging Trend From discrete CSP to stack forms PoP (Package-on-Package) MCP (Multi-Chip Package) Next revolution 3D: 3D-NAND TSV (Through Silicon Via): Wide-IO
Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
Major Mobile Devices Forecast Million units 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook NB CAGR 2011-2016 Forecast: --- Smartphone 21% --- Tablet 39% --- Ultrabook (from 2012) 59% --- NB 12% 1179 1081 947 794 626 455 285 311 337 302 250 195 209 236 266 197 124 65 2 19 35 66 91 121 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: Multiple market research companies; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July.
Storage & Mobile Memory Interface Smartphone Tablet Ultrabook Storage NAND emmc NAND emmc SSD SSD Dual-Drive Hybrid-HDD DRAM LPDDR LPDDR DDR LPDDR DDR Platform ARM+Andriod ARM+iOS ARM+iOS ARM+Andriod Wintel Wintel WoA(ARM+Win8)?
Ultrabook Market Forecast Ultrabook Shipments (Millions) Ultrabook Shipment by Storage 100 100 Hybrid HDD 80 80 Dual-Drives 60 60 SSDs 40 40 20 20 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) 0 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Source: IDC, 2012
Tablet Market Forecast Tablet Shipments (Millions) Tablet Storage Density Mix 350 100% 300 80% 256GB 250 128GB 200 60% 64GB 32GB 150 40% 16GB 100 8GB 50 20% 4GB 2GB 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0% Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March
Mobile Phone Market Forecast ULC Full Feature Mid to High End Smartphone Entry Feature Low End Smartphone 2500 2000 Unit: Million 1500 1000 409 46 484 142 542 252 596 351 652 429 686 493 Smartphone 500 0 Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)
Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
Overall Semiconductor Revenue by End-Use US$ Billions 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: Gartner, 2012/03 CAGR Others 3% Industrial 7% Automotive 8% Consumer -1% Flash Card & USB -2% Communication (ex phones) 4% Smartphone 16% Non-Smartphone -17% SSD 30% Tablets 32% Sever/Workstation 11% PC 3%
80,000 Memory IC Historical Data (2007-2011) Memory Revenue & Unit Shipment by Technology Million US$ 40,000 Million units 70,000 35,000 60,000 30,000 50,000 25,000 40,000 20,000 30,000 15,000 20,000 10,000 10,000 5,000 0 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 0 Y07 Y08 Y09 Y10 Y11 Source: WSTS
Memory IC Market Forecast (2011-2015) 70,000 60,000 US$ Million 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 Other Memory ROM & EPROM NAND Flash NOR Flash 10,000 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) SRAM DRAM Source: WSTS 2012/05 Spring Forecast Update
Memory Content Forecast for Ultrabooks 10 DRAM Content (GB) per device 250 NAND Content (GB) per device 234 8 6 4 3.7 4.3 5.5 6.6 7.6 8.3 200 150 100 73 111 136 156 187 2 50 0 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Y11 Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing, 2012 July Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f)
Memory Content Forecast for Tablets 5 DRAM Content (GB) per device 4.8 80 NAND Content (GB) per device 79 4 3 2 1 0.5 1.1 1.9 3.1 4.2 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 24 29 42 51 59 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: BofA, Merrill Lynch; organized by Macronix marketing,2012 July
Memory Content Forecast for Smartphones DRAM Content (GB) per device Embedded NAND Content (GB) per device 2.5 2.1 20 18 19 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.6 15 10 5 7 9 11 14 0.0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) 0 Y11 Y12(f) Y13(f) Y14(f) Y15(f) Y16(f) Source: IHS isuppli, 2012 March
Tables of Contents Mobile Device Trends Impacts to NAND Storage & Mobile-DRAM Market Forecast for Ultrabooks, Tablets & Smartphones Memory IC Forecast and Opportunities Take-Away Messages
Take-Away Messages Killer mobile usages and industry focus are fueling the exciting growth of mobile devices Smartphone ~1,000M units (forecast of 2015) Tablet ~300M units Ultrabook ~100M units Behind the mobile device success, NAND storage and mobile-dram solutions are key enablers Many active JEDEC members are jointly creating future memory standards, to enable the market acceptance and ultimately benefit all eco-system industries emmc, UFS, SSD LPDDR3, Wide-IO
Thank You! Michael Wang Macronix Int l Mobile Forum Taiwan 2012