NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage

Transcription

1 NAND Flash and The Future of Enterprise Storage Enabling Products or Enabling Profits? He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth. Arab Proverb Mobile Infinitely self-similar, never the same Desktop Enterprise John Monroe Research Vice President Gartner Storage Group Joseph Unsworth Research Director Gartner Semiconductor Group IDEMA DISKCON September 2008 Notes accompany this presentation. Please select Notes Page view. These materials can be reproduced only with written approval from Gartner. Such approvals must be requested via Gartner is a registered trademark of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. Where Do We Come From? What are We? Where Are We Going?

2 Why SSDs in the Enterprise? HDDs have made enormous advances in capacity, cost per GB and reliability but much more limited advances in performance. With HDDs, enterprise IOPS per GB have actually declined. There will be a growing need for storage network accelerators (SNAs) in a variety of enterprise applications.

3 Key Issues 1. What are the key market trends and applications fueling data growth? This image can serve as a kind of metaphor for seamless integration, reflecting a coalescence of storage systems that can with endless, scalable replication, simplicity and beauty solve the problem of infinity at every edge. 2. What are the storage technologies and architectures that best address the complexity, cost and environmental challenges faced by IT professionals? 3. What are the current NAND flash industry dynamics?

4 The Evolving Storage Landscape The Internet has one key purpose: The quick transport of digital data in multiple forms to multiple locations. All other uses have evolved from that initial aim. Increased storage at any point in the World Wide Web increases the possibilities for storage in every part of the Web. We are only beginning to see the enormous implications of that simple sentence.

5 Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies Source: Gartner June 2008 Hype Cycle for Storage Hardware Technologies, 2008 (G )

6 HDDs and SSDs in the Enterprise: A Spectrum of Opportunity He who foretells the future lies, even if he tells the truth. Arab Proverb K/7.2K-RPM HDDs 10K/15K-RPM HDDs Total Multiuser Markets Enterprise-Grade SSDs Units (M) SATA HDDs FC/SAS HDDs SSDs High Capacity SATA HDDs: M Units M Units High-Performance FC/SAS HDDs: M Units M Units Enterprise-Grade SSDs: K Units M Units

7 From the Consumer to the Data Center: The Management of Complexity is Complex New dimensions in corporate and personal computing will demand (among other things) - More storage capacity and quick, seamless access to enormous databases - More cost-effective and power-efficient storage infrastructures - More degrees of data security and more widespread uses of data encryption - Better archiving and disaster recovery systems - Better data management and enterprise content management - Better compliance strategies - Better IT operations to respond to enhanced SLAs Both HDDs and SSDs will play key roles in the future management of storage complexity.

8 Flash Landscape & Enterprise-Grade SSD Demands WHY SSD in Tier 0 Storage? - To Replace HDD For Performance, NOT Storage 100X+ Read Performance 10X+ Write Performance - Power Efficiency, Thermal Resistivity, Reliability Not All Flash is Created Equal: SLC vs. MLC - SLC Twice As Fast, 10X Endurance Cycles BUT - SLC is $7/GB vs. $2.50/GB - 93% NAND Output Is MLC SLC NAND Flash Attributes: - Very Low Latency Reads: (~50us) - Relatively Slow Writes: (>200us) - Limited Endurance Cycles: Ranging from 100K-2M

9 Sun Microsystems ZFS Hybrid Pool Example (From IDF Shanghai) Same $ Budget Spent RESULT

10 Enterprise-Grade SSD: New Perspectives Units (M) 8 Enterprise-Grade SSD Segmentation 3.5" SSD 6 2.5" SSD 1.8" SSD GB E-Grade SSD is ~$500 OEM Price 256GB PC SSD is <$100 (Read Applications) New Form Factors - NAND DIMM - Sub-1.8 Disc Enterprise-Grade SSD: 2007: 473K Units, $157.4M 2012: 7.2M Units, $1.4B Enterprise-Grade SSD Breakdown: Netcom: 36%, Enterprise Storage: 19%, Industrial/Military: 40%, Medical: 5% Enterprise-Grade SSD Breakdown: Netcom: 22%, Enterprise Storage: 60%, Industrial/Military: 17%, Medical: 1%

11 Controller Enables Enhanced SSD Functionality Multiple Channel Support for Optimizing NAND Interleaving (8,16, and more Channels) Advanced Wear-Leveling Algorithms Bad Block Management: 8bit,12bit+ ECC/EDC Native SATA, FC Support Controller Leaders -STEC -SanDisk - Toshiba - Micron/Lexar -Mtron - Samsung -Intel - HyperStone -SST SSD Suppliers -STEC - Smart Modular -SanDisk - Toshiba - Samsung -Intel - Imation/Mtron - Micron/Lexar -BitMicro - Silicon Systems Controller Challengers - Silicon Motion -Phison -Marvell - LSI Logic -TDK - InComm -SkyMedi - Many, Many Custom Solutions

12 The NAND Flash Price Free Fall ASP/GB $7,870 SLC NAND $310 MLC NAND $7.94 8/16LC NAND $0.25 8LC = 3bits per Cell 16LC = 4bits per Cell

13 Worldwide NAND Forecast, 3Q08: Summary of Adjustments Demand Slow Demand Across US and Europe due to Macroeconomic Factors Inventories Jammed in Q208 for both NAND Suppliers & Customers Flash Card & USB Drive Capacities Sluggish Migration to 4GB+ PMP & USB Drive shipments show slower growth Supply Supply Production Revised Down only ~1% in 2008 and Similar Bit Growth in 2009 NAND Capacity spending cuts, More Needed (Excludes Recent SNDK Cuts) 2007 CapEx $11.5B, +30% 2008 CapEX $9.46B, -17% 2009 CapEx $10.41B, +9.5% Forecast Forecast outlook has worsened near-term with hopes to 2010 for recovery 2008: $13.9B, -10.1% growth 2009: Recovery in 2H09: $16B, 15.1% growth 2010: Recovery continues in 2010: $19.1B, 19.5% growth : Supply Induced downturn, Limited Profitability

14 3Q08 Update: What a Difference a Quarter Makes! Billions of Megabytes 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Short-Term Supply/Demand Sufficiency 2007: 101.5% = Oversupply 2008: 103.2% = Oversupply 2009: 100.2% = Balance Supply/Demand Sufficiency 110% 105% 100% 95% 0 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07 4Q07 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 90% NAND Flash Supply NAND Flash Demand Sufficiency 1Q&2Q Previous Source: Gartner August, 2008 NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08

15 Capacity Increases Despite Losses Wafers (Thousands 200mm Eq.) 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2, mm 200mm 300mm Capacity Is a Costly Necessity in Commodity NAND Limited Revenue Growth % % 2008E -10.1% Yet Spending Continues! 2007 CapEx $11.5B, +30% 2008 CapEX $9.46B, -17% 2009 CapEx $10.41B, +9.5% Further Declines Likely Given Losses 1,000 And More to Come, Despite recent Delays 0 Q107 Q207 Source: Gartner August, 2008 Q307 Q407 Q108 Q208 Q308 Q mm Capacity Grows from 40% in 1Q07 to 70% in Q408 - Every Major Vendor has a 300mm Fab Ramp in 2009

16 NAND Multi-State & Controller Technology: A Glimpse into the Future % of MB Shipments 100% NAND Technologies NROM 4BC Cost Reductions Must Not Compromise Quality 80% 60% 40% NROM 2BC MLC AND MLC DOC OneNAND 16LC NAND - Every Shrink Pressures Performance and Endurance - 3bits Technology Will Repeat MLC Trend - ECC/EDC, Wear-Leveling, Bad Block Management Essential 20% 0% LC NAND MLC NAND SLC NAND - Flash Management Software & Advanced Controllers Can Be Differentiators in a Commodity Market Source: Gartner August, 2008 NAND Flash Supply and Demand, Worldwide, 1Q07-4Q09: 3Q08 Update

17 NAND Flash Market Forecast: 2008 Collapse, Recovery 2H09/2010 CAGR Gigabytes (M) ,945 4,684 10,415 22,074 42,022 75, % Bit Growth 222% 258% 207% 177% 141% 122% 112% 90% 79% NAND Revenue 19.5% -4.9% 4.4% Revenue (Billions of Dollars) % 70.6% 12.5% 14.8% -10.1% 15.1% ASP 1GB eqv % ASP Change -47.4% -52.3% -63.3% -58.5% -62.7% -48.2% -43.6% -50.0% -41.6% Source: Gartner, August 2008 Semiconductor Forecast Worldwide--Forecast Database [SEQS-WW-DB-DATA] CAGR 07-12

18 A Few Inconclusive Conclusions NAND flash will be the "tip of the iceberg" HDDs will power the massive bulk of storage content hidden in the "ocean" of available data. Technology providers and end users must realize that a spectrum of opportunity in emerging applications is far more compelling than any kind of disruptive battlefield. Alliances between HDD and NAND flash technology providers should serve to enlarge the library of forms in which storage is a necessary element, thereby enhancing the variety and value of storage products and services.

19 Thank You for Your Time And Attention ขอบค ณ คร บ Longevity The Supreme Ultimate Good Fortune Renew Yourself (profitably) Time & Time Again