Wadden Sea Region Climate Neutral by 2030?

Wadden Sea Region Climate Neutral by 2030? Wadden Sea Forum Meeting Ameland, May 21, 2015. by Pier Vellinga Chairman of the National Research Program Knowledge for Climate Director Water and Climate Waddensea Academy

Greenland ice-mass loss spreading spatially Satelliet-waarnemingen van Groenlandse ijsmassa verlies (Kahn et al., GRL 2010) (a) Feb 2003 - Feb 2007; (b) Feb 2003 - Jun 2009

Sea level rise: plausible high end scenarios 2100: + 0.55-1.20 m (0.65 1.35 incl. soil subs.) Key importance of adaptive management: adapataion measures must be flexible, no-regret (robust) and hand in hand with monitoring & ability to incorporate new scientific insights

Bron: Rohling et al (2007)

Mogelijke tipping points volgens Lenton et al

Toename van de CO-2 concentratie in de oceaan en afname van de ph van de oceanen.

Why is it going so slow in view of the 2 degrees target? Cost come before benefits; the climate benefits will only become visible after some 30 to 100 years and more. An active climate policy will cause major shifts in power, between countries and between companies; The net economic effects of climate change on the rich northern countries (middle and north EU, Russia, Canada and USA) are initially (the first 50 years) relatively small, maybe positive. Net negative effects likely to become apparent at later stage beyond 50 to 100 years. The denial of the effect of greenhouse gasses on the global climate has become an ideological issue, promoted especially by politically right wing groups, groups that are a priori against government interference in markets and resource use.

Jaarlijkse emissie van broeikasgassen neemt toe met 2 % tot 3 % per jaar

Beneden 2 graden temp. stijging blijven is de grote uitdaging van de 21 ste eeuw

Vernieuwbare energie, samenstelling wereldwijd

Vernieuwbare energie in europese landen

Groei van de capaciteit van zonne energie (pv)

Ruimte beslag zonnepanelen als we voor heel nederland met zon pv in onze energie willen voorzien, nog zonder opslag capacitiet

North Sea wind energy production promising Investment and maintenance cost decrease rapidly as the volume of investements increase; Nett production time at sea increasing from 40 % to 65 % to 70 %. Cost per Kwh in the next 5 years likely to decrease from 0.19 Euro per Kwh tot 0,11 euro per kwh, with potential for further cost reduction up to 0.07 euro per Kwh?

Balancing wind and solar energy Optimum design in NW-Europe of wind en solar energy production capacity will require only 25 % back-up energy production capacity for periods with low wind and low solar radiation. (Renewable) power to gass production can fulfill this 25 % back up capacity.

Urgenda: 100 % renewable energies in The Netherlands by 2030 Possible if we really want to! Different way of housing; Different way of travelling and transport; Different way of eating; Different way of production; Different way of energy production.

Different way of housing Energy self sufficient homes within reach for 30.000 euro per house. Insolation Solar panels Solar water heaters Biomass suported heating systems Heat pumps Energy storage (underground in water) Etc

Opportunity's and constraints in housing Jobs in construction; Financially intresting; More comfortable houses Financing arrangements; Existing regulations.

Different way of travelling and transport All electric transport systems: public transport as well as private transport as well as transport of goods: cars, busses, lorries, bicycles, scooters etc ; Ferry boats go on biogass or liquid biofuels ; Fisheries boats can go either electric or on biofuels;

Opportunity s and constraints in travelling and transport (1) Electric transport is more energy efficiënt than gasoline/diesel transport; Electric transport has no negative effects on air quality; Electric transport has little noise effects; Electric transport likely to be price competitive by 2022; Financing a rapid introduction Infrastructure for charging

Opportunity s and constraints in travelling and transport (2) Biofuel including biogass use by ferries and fisheries can stimulate local agriculture and biofuel production; Creation of (stable) market; Infrastructure.

different diets More vegetarian type diet; Alternatives for meat; More regional products; More vegetables; Less food waste. Electric or biofuel vehicles on the farm; Renewable energies in food processing.

Opportunity's and constaints for climate neutral food provisioning More local and regional production opportunities including sea food and new seafood like weed ingredients for protiens replacing meat; Sea and saline food production and consumption create a strong regional identity; Constaints are mainly the time it takes for cultural change in food producing and food consumption habits.

Another way of production of goods A circular biobased economy with renewable energy as input; Circular economy: chemicals, metals, paper, building materials, water; 3-D printing for local/regional reuse; More sharing and leasing and less private ownership;

Opportunities and constraints for a circular economy A stronger economic basis for the rural areas where bioresources biofuels and rewables energies are produced; More local/regional economic activities in view of a larger share of locally and regionally produced products; Significant local investments are required with relatively high risk due to inherent risks of new products in combination with new markets;

New ways of producing energy Wind energy; Solar energy; Biofuels; Geothermal energy; Tidal and blue energy (very limited potential in North Sea region); Power to gas facilties

Opportunity s and constraints new ways of energy production More jobs in the region; More ownership and identity in the region; Environmental concerns Landscape issues Major local/regional investments are required;

In summary