Alternatieven in de energievoorziening

Transcription

1 Alternatieven in de energievoorziening World primary energy in 21 Fossil fuels: oil natural gas coal Wim C. Turkenburg 147 EJ 91 EJ 94 EJ 332 EJ (79.4%) Renewables: large hydro traditional biomass new renewables Copernicus Instituut Universiteit Utrecht 9 EJ 39 EJ 9 EJ 57 EJ (13.7%) Nuclear: 29 EJ (6.9%) 418 EJ (1%) Studium Generale Universiteit Maastricht 23 oktober 27 Total: Source: World Energy Assessment, Overview, 24 update Netherlands: ca..75% of global Fossil fuel occurrences 332 EJ (in 22, forecast for 23) ~ 24 Gt CO2 2 Fossil fuel EJ ~ 12 Gt CO2 Fossil fuel reserves 47. EJ 3.6 Gt CO2 Fossil fuel resources 235. EJ 2.5 Gt CO2 Additional occurrences 975. EJ 55. Gt CO2 CO2 emissions (Mt/yr) World fossil fuel in 21 Global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels power industry transport residential + services other sectors Source: World Energy Assessment, 2 / 24 Source: IEA, WEO, 24 The probability to reach the 2 C target CO2 : preindustrial: 28 ppmv / at present: ~ 37 ppmv Business as Usual scenario Range of scenarios in literature 27 proposal EU: stabilization GHG concentration at 45 ppmv (CO2 eq) 1

2 Reductie broeikasgasemissies Om te voorkomen dat de concentratie van broeikasgassen in de atmosfeer (gemeten in CO2equivalenten) tot boven de 45 ppm stijgt, in het nodig de uitstoot van deze gassen sterk te beperken. De uitstoot van CO2 moet in 25 ca. 6% lager zijn, wereldwijd (t.o.v. 199). In de westerse wereld moet de uitstoot in 25 ca. 8% lager zijn; dit vereist 23% minder uitstoot in 22 (t.o.v. 199). Energy Security: Energy Resources Oil and gas could last at least 51 years. There is (much) more gas than oil and probably (much) more coal than gas and oil. Total fossil fuel resources will last at least several hundreds of years. Renewable energy flows are some 1 times current global energy use. Oil imports in OECD Access to energy North America Europe 45 % 53% 63% 74% 63% 85% Pacific 9% 96% 96% Total OECD 56% 72% 76% To reduce our dependence on oil (and gas) imports, alternative strategies and technologies are needed. Source: World Energy Assessment 24 Update Rank Energy and CO 2 in countries with a high, medium and low HDI Country High Human Development Index France Medium Human Development Index Norway Canada United States Netherlands Brazil Bangladesh Traditional fuel (% total en. cons.) 5 % China 5 % India Low Human Development Index Kenya Senegal Mali 5 % 4 % 27 % 2 % 62 % 65 % 72 % 85 % Electricity (kwh/cap.) CO 2 emission (ton/cap.) Share world CO 2 emissions (% in 2) Niger 85 % % 1.9 % 24.4 %.6 % 1.6 % 1.3 % 12.1 % 4.7 %.1 % Accessibility Without access to modern energy services, substantial social and economic development cannot occur. 2.4 billion people rely on wood, charcoal and dung 1.6 billion people do not have access to electricity Reality at the local level: Women and girls in rural areas often spend between 24 hours collecting biomass fuel 1.6 million deaths per year due to indoor air pollution Based on: UNDP Human Development Report, 25 2

3 South Asia SubSaharan Africa East Asia / China Kansen voor Nederland (VROMraad / AER, december 24) Verregaande efficiencyverbetering in industrie en gebouwde omgeving Gasvormige energiedragers Schoon fossiel (CCS) Teelt, import en verwerking van biomassa Windenergie offshore IEA, 22, World Energy Outlook, Chapter 13: Energy and Poverty. Potentieel energiebesparing Mondiaal primair energiegebruik (1998) Finaal energiegebruik Nuttig energiegebruik Energiediensten EJ <6 % <15 Source: WEA, 2 Conclusie: factor 4 te winnen! Dit kan in 67 jaar. Verbetering efficiencyverbetering met 2% per jaar dus mogelijk (thans is dit minder dan 1% per jaar). Residential space heating and hot water production Consumption per dwelling, GJ/year (NL) 1975 average 1998 average Standard 1996/1998/2 (new) Present best in the market (new) Longer term future (new) /38/ Source: Worrell, 26 Passenger cars Fuel use of gasoline cars, in litre/1 km Present average in Europe EU standard 28 (average new) Hybrids on the market Improved hybrid or fuel cell cars And maybe ultralights Source: Worrell, 26 Coke demand (MJ/kg hot metal) Energy Intensity Iron making Introduction coke fired blast furnaces Steam engines Hot blast Energy efficiency improvements: 17618: 1.9% a year 18182:.2% a year : 1.1% a year : +.2% a year : 1.4% a year : 3.4% a year : 1.4% a year Radical changes in shape and design Closed top furnace Use of richer ores Larger hearth furnaces ye ar Higher blast temperatures Ore 3

4 Longterm potentials for energy efficiency improvement SEC s in Present Prospective Theoretical GJ/ton product best technology minimum SEC Paper/board Primary steel Secund. steel Ammonia Nitric acid Source:, STSUU, 24 Contribution new renewables 21 share in world primary energy Modern biomass: 6. EJ Geothermal: 2.1 EJ Small hydro:.36 EJ Wind turbines:.16 EJ Low temp. solar energy:.2 EJ Solar Thermal Electricity:.3 EJ Solar PV:.4 EJ Marine energy:.2 EJ Total: 8.9 EJ WEAupdate, 24 (based on: W.C. Turkenburg, 23) Technical Potential Renewables Biomass Wind Solar Hydro Geothermal Marine Supply in ± 1 EJ.7 EJ.6 EJ 9.3 EJ 1.8 EJ Technical potential 21 EJ/y 718 EJ/y 1,55, EJ/y 5 EJ/y 5, EJ/y n.e. Potential in NL: 751 PJ Experience curve for wind turbines (Experience rate about 15%) Levelised production cost (EUR/kWh) 1..1 Na iedere verdubbeling van het wereldwijd opgesteld windvermogen blijkt de kostprijs van stroom uit windturbines ca. 15% lager Experience curve for PV modules (experience rate about 2%) Na iedere verdubbeling van het wereldwijd geproduceerde zonnecelvermogen blijkt de kostprijs van een zonnecelmodule ca. 2% lager te zijn , 1, 1, Cumulative capacity produced (MW) Source: EXTOOL, 23 Source: EC, 25 4

5 Cost development of nuclear Source: (Grübler, IIASA, 25) PJ Contribution of Renewables to Inland Consumption in the EU15 EU target for renewables: 12% in 21, 2% in Year 21 Targets 22 Projections PV Geothermal Solar Thermal Wind Hydro Biomass Sources: biomass plantations forests residues agricultural residues municipal waste animal manure etc. Bioenergy biotechnology agricultural system irrigation, breeding, mechanization, chemicals population future land use patterns land productivity energy POTENTIAL FOR BIOENERGY? agricultural policy trade GDP (Energy) efficiency of food production world wide (Wirsenius Chalmers University, Sweden) Appropriation of terrestrial phytomass Intake of food Permanent grassland related (animal food) Cropland related (animal food) Cropland related (vegetable food) Option RME (from rape seed) EthOH (wheat) EthOH (sugar beets) EthOH (sugar cane) Comparison of biofuel options EthOH (enzymatic hydrolysis of woodpresent technology) EthOH (enzymatic hydrolysis wood improved technology) MeOH (thermochemical gasification wood) H2 (thermochemical gasification wood) Transport fuel yield (GJ/ha/yr) Transport services yield (ICEV) (1 vkm/ha/yr Source: IPCC,