Looking forward: challenges and trends to factor in a long-term strategy for agricultural R&I by 2020 and beyond? Erik Mathijs 19 June 2015

Transcription

1 Looking forward: challenges and trends to factor in a long-term strategy for agricultural R&I by 2020 and beyond? Erik Mathijs 19 June 2015

2 4th SCAR Foresight Expert Group Long-term experts Erik Mathijs (Belgium) (chair) Gianluca Brunori (Italy) Michael Carus (Germany) Michel Griffon (France) Luisa Last (Switzerland) Short-term experts Margaret Gill (UK): international agricultural research Tiina Koljonen (Finland): energy Eva Lehoczky (Hungary): soil ecology & environment Ingrid Olesen (Norway): fisheries & aquaculture Antje Potthast (Austria): forest-based products

3 Purpose of foresight Robustness test of current R&I agenda Detection of emerging issues Focus: SCAR FEG1: climate change and energy SCAR FEG2: knowledge and innovation systems SCAR FEG3: scarcities and transitions SCAR FEG4: EU bioeconomy strategy

4 Background paper: core priority areas Resource efficient production systems in a changing climate Ecological approaches at farm and landscape level Healthy plants and animals New openings for rural growth Developing human and social capital in rural areas

5 Background paper: cross-cutting issues Efficient and effective policies, socio-economic impacts of innovations Right balance between basic and applied science Global dimension: FNS, international cooperation Private sector involvement EU-MS synergies (JPI, )

6 Challenges Challenges mentioned in Background paper: Food and nutrition security Sustainable resource use Climate change Socio-economic conditions of farming Rural development Additional challenges identified by Foresight: Nutrition and dietary changes Market dynamics and market concentration Big data and electronics revolution New energy landscape Non-food use of biomass

7 Nutrition and dietary changes Strong first nutrition transition (degenerative diseases): increased consumption of livestock products, fats and sugars Weak second nutrition transition (behavioural change): more fruit and vegetables, less meat, shift in sugars Co-evolution between production and consumption, rural-urban linkages

8 Market dynamics and concentration Integration of food and energy markets Issue of price levels and price volatility Market concentration in food processing and retail increasing even more New relationship between retail and consumer emerging at small scale (short supply chain) and large scale (supermarkets)

9 Big data and electronics revolution Advances in electronics will accelerate advances in other fields: Data analysis Factories of the future (robotization, photonics, 3D printing) Omics Precision agriculture Supply chain management, incl. processing, packaging, storage, logistics, etc.

10 New energy landscape Shift from combustion engine based technologies to technologies based on renewable electricty and heat Intermediate role for biofuels Cascading approach to biomass use: But how to implement? What value base?

11 New energy landscape Source: World Energy Outlook 2012 Source: IEA 2014

12 Non-food use of biomass No level playing field for bio-based chemicals and materials due to Renewable Energy Directive Potentially high demand for biomass for biobased chemicals and materials: Drop-in strategies: substitution of fossil fuels New infrastructures for new chemicals and materials Circular economy strategies possible for byproducts and waste streams

13 Bioeconomy scenarios Is the current research & innovation (and policy) agenda robust across all scenarios? Do scenarios offer new opportunities and/or challenges specific to that scenario? Do scenarios have different implications for actors, sectors, regions, ecosystems, etc.? At what geographical level do scenarios apply: world/eu/region/local?

14 Bioeconomy scenarios Future is not known: uncertainties Explore critical uncertainties through scenarios: Demand growth for biomass for material and energy Supply growth of biomass (primary sectors agriculture, forestry, fisheries & aquaculture)

15 Bio-economy scenarios Supply growth of biomass Low medium high Demand growth for biomass for materials & energy low medium A BIO- MODESTY high C BIO- SCARCITY B BIO- BOOM

16 Scenario A: BIOMODESTY Modest growth in demand for biomass for non-food use Possible reasons: Biobased solutions not competitive Alternative solutions break through fast (e.g., cheap solar)

17 Scenario B: BIOBOOM High growth in demand for non-food uses and high growth in supply of biomass Possible reasons: Alternative technologies slow and biobased technologies competitive Limited resistance towards new technologies and products (e.g., insects, algae) Africa rising

18 Scenario C: BIO-SCARCITY High growth in demand for non-food uses, but low growth in supply of biomass Possible reasons: Alternative technologies slow and biobased technologies competitive Climate change negative impact on supply Resistance agaings biotech, insects, etc.

19 Simulation/scoping (billion tonnes dry matter) Sector Status 2011 Scenario A: BIO-MODESTY Scenario B: BIO-BOOM Scenario C: BIO-SCARCITY Food 1.75 (14%) Feed 7.06 (58%) Bio-based chemicals 1.24 (10%) 2.4 5,7 1.0 & materials Bioenergy 2.98 (16%) Biofuels 0.15 (1%) Total supply of (99%) biomass Total demand for biomass

20 Conclusions from scenarios Themes are robust no new themes are to be put on the agenda However, priorities will be different in different scenarios, as they represent different challenges and opportunities related to the bioeconomy Key insight is the importance of governance Important regional differences apply Bio-modesty: pull-effect of bioeconomy disappears, urgency to develop biobased technologies decreases, other ( third ) pathways (next to fossil and bio) exist Bio-scarcity: governance extremely important, social and political issues high on agenda Bio-boom: high-throughput system, ecosystem carrying capacity high on agenda

21 Recommendations New insights following exploration of what bioeconomy may mean for primary sectors Messages of 3rd Foresight Exercise still valid + reinforced Three types of recommendations Principles underpinning research & innovation Scope and emerging themes Organisational principles of research & innovation

22 Principles for a sustainable bioeconomy Bioeconomy principles should be reflected in research & innovation agenda: Food first Sustainable yields Cascading Circularity But we need research on how to implement these principles Diversity: systems are diverse, using contextspecific practices at different scales, producing a diversity of outputs

23 Scope & Themes Broadening scope Horizontally: simultaneous consideration of all sources of biomass to optimize synergies and minimize threats Vertically: integration of upstream and downstream sectors into research addressing primary sectors Thematic areas: 8 themes

24 food & feed consumer 6 socio-cultural dimensions 3 resilience 2 digital revolution materials & chemicals 5 business models energy 7 governance primary production 1 ecological intensification ecosystems 4 new energy landscape 8 foresight time

25 1. Ecological intensification Using regulating functions of nature (functional ecology) From input substitution (e.g. predator instaed of pesticide, biomimicry, new molecules) to landscape-level agroecosystem design From mono-species/environment studies to the study of groups of organisms in relation to each other and the environment (community ecology) To be supported by omics and big data

26 2. The digital revolution Beyond precision agriculture (remote sensing, sensors, ) Factories of the future (mechatronics, photonics, robotics, additive manufacturing, ) Enabler for dealing with diversity, different qualities, etc.

27 3. Resilience for a sustainable bioeconomy Hazards (immediate shocks + long-term changes) increased coordination and integration of different subsectors effects on animal, plant and human health hazards as well as adaptation and risk reduction strategies What is the impact of the bioeconomy on resilience? What new solutions and systems can be developed that are more resilient, from a biological and technological point of view as well as a social perspective? How can changes in consumption create opportunities for the bioeconomy?

28 4. The new energy landscape Future = renewable electricity + heat generation Impact for inputs for primary production (fertilizer, pesticides, machinery, ) Direct impact on primary production

29 5. Business models for the bioeconomy Circularity implies new ways of designing and manufacturing products, new relationships between economic actors, new ways of recycling components and waste, etc. Actors and activities will be reassembled in time and in space. Different production models in terms of scope and size should not only be able to co-exist, but also capture the synergies between them. Public sector involvement is needed for these new business models to work, as public goods are generated in the circular economy but often not remunerated by the market.

30 6. Socio-cultural dimensions of the bioeconomy Knowledge about social impacts of technology and mechanisms of social change should progress as fast as technology itself. All stakeholders (primary producers, processors, consumers, citizens, etc.) should be fully involved in governance of bioeconomy. Science may radically change food production and consumption patterns, with potential to reduce pressure on ecosystems, through changes in diet, multifunctional use of land and aquatic resources, urban-rural nutrient cycles and production of alternative proteins. This may break established routines and create resistance and anxieties, which need to be better understood. Approaches have legal implications that need to be understood and addressed by research.

31 7. Governance and the political economy of the bioeconomy Outcomes of bioeconomy will depend on the rules put in place to regulate the system. Bio-based materials and bio-energy may create pressure on natural resources and on social inequalities in a scarcitydominated world. Bioeconomy involves both positive and negative externalities influencing the future of the biosphere and the ways in which societies will use it. So bioeconomy governance is critical. Research should help develop framework aimed at fostering the bioeconomy - policies and sustainability & safety standards that are coherent, create a level playing field, avoid the overexploitation of natural resources and foster a diversity of practices with small environmental impacts.

32 8. Foresight for the biosphere Current foresight mostly using forecast-based modelling platforms, with comparative-static approaches and within limited set of structural features. Efforts are being done to expand these platforms into the non-food dimensions of the bioeconomy Research should also expand foresight capacity by integrating data and dynamic and flexible tools, in order to avoid lock-ins and monitor the sustainability and resilience of the bioeconomy and the biosphere as a whole.

33 KIS for the bioeconomy Challenge-oriented instead of/in addition to curiositydriven Transdisciplinary = transcending pre-existing disciplines and methodologies Socially distributed = knowledge creation in diverse forms, in diverse places and by diverse actors socially inclusive Reflexive = research as dialogic process between researchers and end users, rather than objective investigation of natural and social world New assessment standards = quality control transcending classical peer review, old taxonomies in science + multiactor means multi-qualities Capacities for researchers, extensionists, policymakers, end-users important role for education

34 Fit with Background paper? SCAR Foresight Ecological intensification Digital revolution Resilience New energy landscape - Business models for the circular economy Socio-cultural dimensions Governance and political economy Foresight for the biosphere - Background paper Ecological approaches at farm and landscape level New openings for rural growth Resource efficient production systems Healthy plants and animals New openings for rural growth Present in New openings for rural growth, but needs larger scope for impact (e.g., governance, policy research)

35 Concluding remarks Digital revolution and new energy landscape has farreaching potential But potential turns into risk when not governed well: jobless rural growth large-scale systems preferred to diversity synergies not exploited Need for research underpinning governance (policy coherence, new business models, private-public collaboration) Important geographical differences need more attention For projects to deliver, KIS aspects need strengthening (e.g., capacities)