World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS): Roles of Global, Regional and National Operational Entities Rupa Kumar Kolli C/WCAS, WMO Winter SASCOF-1, Chennai, India, 15 October 2015 WMO Climate & Water Department www.wmo.int
Global Framework for Climate Services Goal: Enable better management of the risks of climate variability and change and adaptation to climate change at all levels, through development and incorporation of science-based climate information and prediction into planning, policy and practice. 2
What are Climate Services? Provide a source of accumulated knowledge about the past, present and future of the climate system; The development and delivery of a range of "products" and advice based on this knowledge about the past, present and future climate and its impacts on natural and human systems Historical climate data sets Climate monitoring Climate watches Monthly/Seasonal/Decadal climate predictions Climate change projections The use and the effective application of these products to help achieve the desired results. 3
Why a Framework for Climate Services? It will enable greater integration and coordination across disciplines and sectors in the climate services agenda for better use of existing infrastructure, technical capabilities (and resources ) for improved outcomes in climate-sensitive sectors. A Framework for Climate Services will build on existing capacities and leverage these through coordination to address shortcomings. Many countries lack the infrastructural, technical, human and institutional capacities to provide high-quality climate services. Climate services have not been able to reach the last mile to those who need them the most. 4
Components of GFCS Users Government, private sector, research agriculture, water, health, construction, disaster reduction, environment, tourism, transport, etc., User Interface User Interface Climate Services Information System Observations and Monitoring Research, Modeling and Prediction CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT 5
GFCS Sectoral Priorities All sectors to be tackled but in the first four years the GFCS is proposing giving priority to: Agriculture and Food Security Disaster risk reduction Water Human Health Energy* *Recommended by IBCS-2/Approved by Cg-17 6 6
Role of CSIS within the GFCS The CSIS is the means of delivery of climate data and products. It comprises global, regional and national centres and entities that generate/process climate information (observations and predictions), and the exchange of data and products to agreed standards and protocols. It must be supported by observation and research programmes (e.g. GCOS, WCRP). With pull through facilitated by strong links. Capacity building initiatives will increase conductivity of data flow Part of the CSIS is in place, but new infrastructure is needed to fullfil the GFCS vision. 7
Global users Regional users National/Sectoral users User Interface Platform Regional Climate Outlook Forums National Climate Forums Global Producing Centres Regional Climate Centres National climate centres Climate Analysis, Monitoring and Prediction Centres Global data centres Specialized data centres Climate Data Centres National data centres Global systems Regional systems National systems Climate Observing Systems 8
Global Producing Centres of LRF In 2006, WMO set up a process to designate centres making global seasonal forecasts as WMO Global Producing Centres (GPCs) of Long Range Forecasts GPCs adhere to commonly defined standards aiding consistency and usability of output: a fixed forecast production cycle a standard set of forecast products WMO-defined verification standards A comprehensive set of standard verification measures, with which to communicate the skill of forecasts, has been defined (the WMO Standard Verification System for Long-Range Forecasts SVSLRF) 12 GPCs designated so far Two Lead Centres: LC-LRFMME and LC-SVSLRF 9
Currently Designated GPCs Links to GPCs: http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/wcp/wcasp/clips/producers_forecasts.html 10
Purpose of RCCs Many societal and economic systems are vulnerable to the impacts of climate variability and change; Decision-makers require high-quality, reliable, timely information on current, predicted and projected conditions for safety and security, and for adaptation strategies and measures
Purpose of RCCs Development and delivery of effective climate services for the benefit of all WMO Members requires: Regional cooperation for capacity-building and infrastructure development; Operational implementation of the progress made in WMO s climate monitoring and research initiatives; A regional mechanism for interpretation and interface to NMHSs of global SIP
Regional Climate Centres (RCCs) RCCs will be Centres of Excellence, designated by CBS and CCl, to perform regional-scale climate functions, including: Operational LRF and Climate Monitoring Coordination between RCCs, GPCs and NMHSs in the region Data services Climate Applications Training and capacity building Research and Development RCCs will be complementary to and supportive of NMHSs, who will deliver all Warnings and national-scale products Establishment of RCCs will be initiated by Regional Associations, based on regional needs and priorities
WMO RCC: Definitions WMO-RCC A multifunctional centre that fulfils all the required functions of an RCC for the entire region, or for a sub-region to be defined by the regional association WMO RCC-Network A group of centres performing climate-related activities that collectively fulfil all the required functions of an RCC WMO RCC-Network Node a centre in a designated WMO RCC-Network a node will perform, for the region or sub-region defined by the regional association, one or several of the mandatory RCC activities (e.g. longrange forecasting (LRF), climate monitoring, climate data services, training).
More on the RCC concept Who can use the title? Only centres or groups of centres designated by WMO will carry the title WMO RCC or WMO RCC-Network respectively. Recipients of RCC products and services (RCC Users): NMHSs, other RCCs and international institutions recognized by the regional association. Guidance for RCCs and RCC-Networks: Guidance published by the Commission for Climatology on technical, climate-related matters Functions and criteria identified in the Manual on the GDPFS
Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (1/2) Operational Activities for LRF*: Interpret and assess relevant LRF products from GPCs, distribute relevant information to RCC Users; and provide feedback to GPCs Generate regional and sub-regional tailored products, relevant to RCC User needs, including seasonal outlooks etc.; Perform verification of RCC quantitative LRF products, including the necessary exchange of basic forecasts and hindcast data; Generate consensus statement on regional or sub-regional forecasts; Provide on-line access to RCC products/services to RCC Users; Assess use of RCC products and services through feedback from RCC Users. * Both dynamical and statistical, within the range of 1 month to 2 year timescale, based on regional needs
Minimum Functions for RCC Designation (2/2) Operational Activities for Climate Monitoring: Perform climate diagnostics including analysis of climate variability and extremes, at regional and sub-regional scales; Establish an historical reference climatology for the region and/or subregions; Implement a regional Climate Watch. Operational Data Services, to support operational LRF and climate monitoring: Develop regional climate datasets, gridded where applicable; Provide climate database and archiving services, at the request of NMHSs; Training in the use of operational RCC products and services Provide information on methodologies and product specifications for mandatory RCC products, and provide guidance on their use Coordinate training for RCC Users in interpretation and use of mandatory RCC products.
RCC Highly Recommended Functions Climate prediction and projection Use of model simulations, downscaling of scenarios, adaptation strategies, verification Non-operational data services WIS; DARE; metadata; assist Members in archiving, datasets, QM, QA/QC; homogenization; DBM; Coordination functions Collaboration; assist members with user liaison, media, public awareness strategies Training and capacity building Promote technical, assist in professional, capacity building Research and development CV and CC, regional models, proxy data, economic value of climate information
WMO RCC Status Worldwide NEACC BCC TCC ACMAD CIIFEN ICPAC Designated RCCs Designated RCC-Networks SADC-CSC RCCs in Demonstration Phase RCC-Networks in Demo Phase RCCs Proposed RCC-Networks Proposed
Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) RCOFs provide platforms for Climate experts and climate information users to: Discuss current climate status Exchange views on scientific developments in climate prediction Develop consensus-based regional climate outlooks that can feed into national climate outlooks produced by NMHSs Engage in user-provider dialogue An important aspect of RCOFs is the facility to bring together experts in various fields, at regular intervals, operational climate providers and end users of forecasts in an environment that encourages interaction and learning. 20
Background Consensus Process in RCOFs: Mostly Subjective Observations ENSO State Climate Patterns Climatology (Precip/Temp) ENSO Teleconnections Assessment (conversation) ENSO Dynamical (mostly Global) Statistical (National/Regional) Forecasts Regional, seasonal Outlook (temp, rain, flows) Products 21
Regional Climate Outlook Forums worldwide
Potential National Mechanisms Framework for Climate Services at the national level Similar to GFCS structure but involves practicalities and specifics for delivery of climate services at the national level. Some countries may establish coordination mechanisms appropriate to their national context, largely as integral components of the NMHSs, to support/facilitate GFCS implementation at the national level National Climate Outlook Forums (NCOFs) Adapting the Large and Regional scale forecasts to the national context Tailoring products and translating key messages for users (Multidisciplinary Working Groups) Evaluating the impact of expected conditions (with existing vulnerabilities) Coordination mechanisms at National level Tailored to specific National context Positioning of NMHS within the Framework at the national level Strong and sustained users liaison Research focus on national needs Wide access to climate data and knowledge base 23
Examples of Benefits Better water resources management as inputs to hydrological characterization (e.g. precipitation, evaporation, etc.) in planning, design, development and operation of water supplies in flood and floodplain management and control design and operation of irrigation and drainage systems; for studies associated with power generation, fisheries an conservation, navigation and recreation. Improved disaster risk management Planning and emergency preparedness and response to extreme events Siting of critical infrastructure such as hospitals, schools, etc. Improved support to planning and operations in the health sector Risk Assessment/health system risk management Epidemiological Surveillance & environmental Monitoring Health Services (heat health warning systems, malaria waning system, etc ) Improved agricultural planning and management Better drought and flood management Improved food security
World Meteorological Organization Working together in weather, climate and water Thank You RKolli@wmo.int WMO Climate & Water Department www.wmo.int