TERMS OF REFERENCE Vulnerability and Socio-economic Impact Assessment Specialist

Transcription

1 TERMS OF REFERENCE Vulnerability and Socio-economic Impact Assessment Specialist 1. Background The Protocol Agreement between the African Development Bank Fund (ADF) and the African Centre of Meteorological Applications for Development (ACMAD) in connection with the Institutional Support to African Climate Institutions Project, and that between ACMAD and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) has approved a Grant for the Institutional Support to African Climate Institutions Project (ISACIP). This ISACIP will support the first component of the ClimDev-Africa program, which seeks to enhance the capacity of African climate centres to generate and make widely available relevant climate-related information to end users. These centres are: the African ACMAD, the Agro meteorology and Hydrology Regional Centre (AGRHYMET), IGAD Climate Prediction and Application Centre (ICPAC) and SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) former Drought Monitoring Centre (DMC). It will also enhance the capacities of selected African scientists to generate appropriate climate-relevant information and disseminate these through appropriate channels to intended end-users. SADC CSC is the Regional climate organization hosted by the Botswana Department of Meteorological Services (BDMS) since its relocation to Gaborone. The purpose of the SADC CSC is to ensure that a sub regional mechanism for monitoring and predicting extremes in climate condition is operational. The CSC carries its mandate through development, generation and dissemination of meteorological, other environmental and hydro-meteorological products. The products have also made valuable contribution to increasing the region s disaster preparedness for and efficient management of weather and climate-induced calamities which constitutes more than 80% of all natural disasters worldwide. It trains personnel from principally the SADC national Meteorological/Hydrological Services (NMHSs) in climate prediction and the usercommunities in the region in application of climate products and services for optimum socio-economic development which is highly sensitive to vagaries of weather and climate. One of the sub-component of the project is conducting of the vulnerability and Socio-economic Impact Assessment of the Southern Africa Development Community Region. Climate plays a very crucial role in the socio-economic development of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Region. In SADC region, climate extremes continue to devastate all most socio-economic development systems. Recurrent extreme climate events such as floods, tropical cyclones, and droughts devastate most economic, social and environment systems in SADC Region. Floods associated with heavy rains 1

2 that are often preceded or followed by droughts, usually lead to the destruction of property, infrastructure, settlements, loss of life, environmental degradation, mass migration of animals and people and outbreaks of diseases such as malaria. Recent assessments show that climate change will be a threat to all future development efforts in the region due to low capacity and high vulnerability of the local communities Mapping hazards and the hot spots, together with assessment of the impacts and vulnerability to climate extremes and climate change on socio-economic sectors are critical to any realistic disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation and mitigation plans. The vulnerability and socio-economic impact specialist is going to assess and map natural hazards and the associated impacts over the fifteen (15) SADC Member States countries as well as vulnerability to the current and projected climate change to the various populations and socio-economic services. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) is the UN body mandated to provide standards and coordination of all issues related to meteorology and water. All climate observations and national climate operational activities are coordinated by National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs). These assessments will therefore be undertaken working closely with WMO and NMHSs systems. This component of the project is to support climate variability and change impacts and vulnerability assessment in the fifteen (15) SADC Member States countries. 2. Objective of the climate variability and climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment specialist The overall objective is to undertaken assessment of the impacts and vulnerability of climate variability and climate change for the fifteen SADC Member States countries. The study has a number of key aims to assess the potential impacts of climate Variability and change on key sectors on the economy and non-market sectors (such as health) so Members States can understand what is at stake for them. More specifically, the study is to include at a country level: - Impact Assessment: substantive analysis to develop a comprehensive and quantified assessment of the economic impacts of climate variability and change. The impact analysis should emphasize climate effects both on economy and prospects for growth, as well as on the poorer and more vulnerable sections of society (specifically via the MDGs). - Costed Options for Mitigation and Adaptation: analysis of the costs and benefits of climate change mitigation and adaptation in the short, medium and long term, including an assessment of regional interdependence and its consequential multiplier effect. (Time horizons may be informed by country planning processes, e.g. 2020, 2025 and For adaptation use of the MDG 2015 target may be helpful). 2

3 3. Scope of work for the assessment The climate variability and climate change impacts and vulnerability assessment shall cover the fifteen (15) Member States countries in the SADC Region namely, Angola, Botswana, DRC, Lesotho, Malawi, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, Namibia, Seychelles, South Africa, Swaziland, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Integration of the national products into the regional products and maps is also expected. The assessment should also include current status in each of the fifteen Member States countries with a view of identifying any gaps, needs and priorities, and making recommendations on how to address each of the identified issues. The work will include to: a. Review relevant literature b. Map major hazards of the region and individual countries together with Zoning of hazard prone areas ( hotspots), c. Document the changing patterns including trends of the hazards identified under (b) d. Assess sector specific impacts of the past hazards listed in (b), including the economic cost of each at national levels e. Assess the Vulnerabilities associated with (b), (c) and (d) highlighting major lessons and experiences regarding the strengths and weaknesses of the various governments and other stake holders in addressing the challenges including early warning and early actions f. Identify opportunities for disaster risk reduction and climate change that SADC, SADC-CSC and the member countries could take advantage of to strengthen relevant institutions g. Project the impact of socio-economic sectors under future climate variability and change h. Identify national and regional needs and priorities, and way forward for reducing the impacts and vulnerability i. Propose achievable solutions for each of the major issues identified under the hazards, impacts, and vulnerability assessments, and develop concept project that could be translated into fundable projects for each j. Indicate areas that can be coordinated regionally through SADC-CSC 3

4 4. Duration The consultant will be required to have finalized the assignment within a period of six (6) months, and must include (i). (ii). The inception workshop involving the 15 NMHSs, SADC-CSC and relevant stake holders to agree to the best framework; methodology and roles of key players in the feasibility assessment ; The final workshop involving NMHSs and SADC-CSC will also be required at the end to present and adopt the final report. 5. Competencies The bidding teams for the assessment should include the following among others: - Socio-economic analysis and projection under climate variability and change; - Regional climate modeling scenario development. The team will be compound by: (i) A Lead Consultant, Provides leadership of the overall assignment and provide technical guidance and coordinate the work of the national experts. The lead consultant shall be a climate scientist or equivalent with at least 15 years working in areas relevant to the consultancy. Other competences include evidences of having undertaken similar assessments in the past, The lead consultant will be responsible for producing the final report. (ii) National Experts At least one expert from each of the fifteen (15) SADC-CSC member countries. The national experts should have good knowledge of the NMHSs, and must have undertaken similar tasks in the past.. He/she should have a working experience of not less than 10 years. 6. Technical and Financial Proposals The two proposals with all their components should be submitted to SADC-CSC separately. The financial proposal should include all costs associated with the study, i.e. fees for the Team Leader, national experts and any assistants, as well as administrative and travel costs. The winning firm that will sign a contract with SADC-CSC will be responsible for the payments of all the costs of the assessment. 4

5 7. Deliverables Deliverables (D.1): Climate Vulnerability Index for SADC Region: construction of the vulnerability index as a function of exposure to climate variability and natural hazards; sensitivity to the impacts of that exposure; and capacity to adapt to ongoing and future climatic changes, according to socio-economic and institutional development; Deliverables (D.2): report outlining regional climate and socio-economic projections. Deliverables (D.3): The costs and benefits of climate adaptation. Deliverables (D.4): A regional report, highlighting the regional impacts and policy implications Deliverables (D.5): A climate Decision Support System (CDSS) tool, a computer-based system which helps Decision-Maker in the understanding of socio-economic impact of climate variability and change and the relevant climate adaptation options. 5