TOPIC 4 Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts. Jim Davidson

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1 TOPIC 4 Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts Jim Davidson Richard Murnane Bill Read Lixion Avila - ST Chan Linda Anderson-Berry David King - Ryan Crompton IWTC-VII November 2010

2 TOPIC 4 Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts Risk Assessment Jim Davidson Disaster Mitigation Strategies Richard Murnane Bill Read Lixion Avila - ST Chan Linda Anderson-Berry David King - Ryan Crompton Operational Warning Strategies Societal Impacts of TCs IWTC-VII November 2010 Economic Impacts of TCs

3 Risk Assessment (Murnane) Risk assessment using Catastrophe Risk (CAT) Models These models are generally location specific & probabilistic and developed mainly for the (re)insurance industry No freely available global-scale CAT Model is available such a model would benefit a range of stakeholders Advocates better collaboration between the atmospheric science and civil engineering communities Further recommends developing (a) a set of (multi-basin) hazard catalogs and vulnerability functions for all TC hazards and (b) a public domain database of bathymetric, topographic & surface roughness data for all TC regions (Info on the societal & structural environment is also needed) Unresolved questions on the impacts of climate change

4 Economic Impacts of TCs (Crompton) Approach provides an estimate of the total economic loss by normalising the losses to account for the effects of inflation, population growth, and changes in wealth and can only be used if a relatively extensive historical record No definite long-term trends can be found in landfall frequency & intensity major TCs account for the vast majority of damage the increase in observed losses is mainly due to coastal population growth & assets coupled with a lack of investment in risk reduction measures No firm link found between losses and global warming but anthropogenic climate change to exacerbate future impacts Recommend open-source, peer-reviewed loss and landfall databases and better understanding of future risk given projected changes in climate and society demographics

5 Disaster Mitigation Strategies (Read/Avila) Primary role of meteorologists in disaster mitigation is to continue to improve the quality of the TC warning service and to provide timely communication of the threat Increasing risk to life and property associated with the steady movement of the population into cyclone-prone coastal areas and the consequential need for a range of non-meteorological disaster mitigation strategies, such as land use policy, building codes & public education programs Another growing challenge to emergency managers is the complexity and stressful nature of travelling on congested highways which might deter people s willingness to evacuate

6 Operational Warning Strategies (Chan) TC warning service seen as an end-to-end forecasting system from observations right through to dissemination End-users need to be informed of the inherent uncertainty in warnings and educated in understanding probability High quality satellite coverage is a high operational priority Users must be engaged so that their requirements are understood and matched by suitable products and delivery modes with a range of dissemination technologies available Paradigm shift towards weather impacts prediction, requiring more integration with socio-economic disciplines

7 Societal Impacts of TCs (Anderson-Berry) Societal impacts are driven and determined by the vulnerability and resilience of people and communities A high level of resilience will reduce both vulnerability and reliance on response and recovery agencies Less a consequence of inadequate science & communication of warnings, than a complex set of issues surrounding social change and migration to hazardous locations Enhanced and targetted education programs are essential Storm surge and flooding are the greatest contributors to loss of life and property and therefore require greater emphasis in mitigation strategies and education programs (reinforced by recommendations on land use planning and educating people on safe evacuation strategies)

8 Topic Chair Summary The most common theme across all the Topic 4 rapporteur reports is that unless appropriate action is taken around the world to address the growing concentration of people and wealth in cyclone-prone coastal areas, the potential for loss of life and high damage costs will greatly increase with time, perhaps moreso under a climate change scenario. At the same time, an effective tropical cyclone warning service, combined with a range of non-meteorological disaster mitigation strategies and attractive financial incentives, are clearly the most potent mechanisms by which to achieve risk reduction. Important too is the adoption of a multi-disciplinary approach, with meteorologists, climate change scientists, engineers, social scientists, and emergency managers working collaboratively towards the common goal of reducing the global impact of tropical cyclones.

9 Recommendations from IWTC-VI Hazard Assessment and Mitigation As a major initiative an international database should be developed to track the loss of human life and socio-economic impacts of TCs as well as the costs associated with TC forecasting and disaster mitigation initiatives. A small multi-disciplinary task force should be formed to monitor the development of the database and to liaise with other groups with a similar goal.

10 Recommendations from IWTC-VI Hazard Assessment and Mitigation The IWTC recommends that the WMO assists least-developed and developing countries to engage in hazard assessment, risk mapping, and TC simulation exercises, especially in highly vulnerable coastal and island areas. Information derived could then be used by NMHSs disaster managers, local governments and communities to better manage and strengthen national disaster and mitigation plans. (slightly editted)

11 Recommendations from IWTC-VI Hazard Assessment and Mitigation More prominence should be given at the next IWTC to the fields of disaster mitigation and societal impacts. This might be achieved by interweaving those topics into the main programme or promoting those sessions to the start of proceedings. Consideration should also be given to inviting representatives of a wider range of related disciplines to the workshop.

12 Recommendations from IWTC-VI Hazard Assessment and Mitigation Regional workshops should be conducted for practitioners every 4 years (2 years out of phase with the IWTCs) for the purpose of advancing the Total Warning System concept and the sharing of TC societal impact and disaster mitigation experiences.

13 Disaster Mitigation, Warning Systems and Societal Impact Extracts from summary paper by M.C.Wong at IWTC-VI Lack of comprehensive information on TC impacts in terms of human & economic losses recommended establishment of a GIS compatible international disaster database to document these impacts further recommended that a working group be set up to oversee the project Recommended that socio-economic impact studies of landfalling TCs be conducted on a periodic basis with results published to promote a culture of awareness Resources should be targetted to support multi-disciplinary teams to survey the TC impact area and undertake case studies on the effectiveness of warning systems (incl public understanding of the warning message and dissemination) Economists to be engaged to work with the meteorological community in conducting a cost-benefit analysis of disaster mitigation policy (incl warning systems)

14 Davidson 2009 Role of NMHSs in Disaster (Risk) Management Risk/Hazard Assessments Developing Partnerships Stakeholder Engagement Mitigation Formulating a Risk Management (Contingency) Plan Community Education including Exercises Capacity Building Prevention Preparation Prediction & Early Warning Fostering a thriving Corporate Culture Event Report NMHS Performance Review IMPACT Recovery Response Restoration Media Interviews and Advice to Disaster Managers Forecasts & Warnings for the Impact Area to aid the Response Participation in Field & Community Surveys Post-event Debriefs Preliminary Damage Assessment End-to-end: NMHSs represented on multi-agency Disaster Management Committees

15 Davidson 2009 Role of NMHSs in Disaster (Risk) Management Risk/Hazard Assessments Developing Partnerships Stakeholder Engagement Mitigation Formulating a Risk Management (Contingency) Plan Community Education including Exercises Capacity Building Prevention Preparation Prediction & Early Warning Fostering a thriving Corporate Culture Event Report NMHS Performance Review Recovery Response Restoration IMPACT Media Interviews and Advice to Disaster Managers Forecasts & Warnings for the Impact Area to aid the Response Participation in Field & Community Surveys Post-event Debriefs Preliminary Damage Assessment End-to-end: NMHSs represented on multi-agency Disaster Management Committees

16 Related Publications & WMO Initiatives Global Perspectives on Tropical Cyclones From Science to Mitigation Chapter 13 Disaster Mitigation and Societal Impacts David King Jim Davidson Linda Anderson-Berry Guidelines on Early Warning Systems and Application of Nowcasting in Warning Operations (Updated Integrating Severe Weather Warnings into Disaster Risk Management ) Authored by the WMO PWS Expert Team in Support of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation Jim Davidson et al WMO Disaster Risk Reduction Programme Projects

17 Selection of Discussion Prompts Consider a Multi-Disciplinary Approach (to almost everything in Topic 4 space) Disaster Mitigation Strategies (Meteorological & Non-Meteorological) Managing Coastal Migration Effective TC Warning Service (Observations through to Dissemination) Range of Dissemination Technologies Forecast Uncertainty & Probability Strategies for NMHS user engagement (suitable products & delivery modes) Public Education/Outreach Programs Reaching Isolated/Vulnerable Communities Field & Community Post-Impact Surveys Trending to Weather Impacts Prediction Reducing Impacts Matters Most

18 Selection of Discussion Prompts Consider a Multi-Disciplinary Approach (to almost everything in Topic 4 space) Cat (Risk) Models & Normalised Losses Requirement for Databases and Catalogs (eg Hazards, Vulnerabilities, Bathymetry) Consideration of financial incentives to invest in vulnerability reduction measures Role of the (Re)Insurance Sector Greatest Threats & Biggest Impacts (Storm Surge, Flooding & Mudslides) Factoring in Climate Change Opportunities for more Interagency Collaboration (eg TIGGE & SWFDP) Common Goal is to significantly reduce the global impact of TCs through the combined efforts of IWTC community Reducing Impacts Matters Most

19 TOPIC 4 Disaster Risks, Mitigation, Warning Systems & Socio-Economic Impacts Increasing exposure and higher climate variability means that long-term disaster mitigation strategies and the financing of disaster risks must become critical planning elements in cyclone-prone countries to assure sustainable development Thank You