US Economic Briefing: High Frequency Indicators February 4, 216 Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 eyardeni@ Debbie Johnson 48-664-1333 djohnson@ Mali Quintana 48-664-1333 aquintana@ Please visit our sites at www. blog. thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of Contents Key Global Indicators 1 Global Boom Bust Barometer 2 US Leading Indicators 3 ECRI 4 Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 5 US Unemployment Claims 6-7 US Petroleum Usage 8 US Electricity Output 9-1 US Railcar Loadings 11-14 US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 15 US Business Credit 16 MBA Mortgage Applications Survey 17 US Commercial Paper 18 US Liquid Assets 19-2 US Profits Cycle 21-23 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 24 Gasoline Prices & Rig Count 25 February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
Key Global Indicators 65 6 Figure 1. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 18 17 16 55 5 45 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Volume of World Exports (25=, sa) Nov 14 13 12 4 11 35 9 3 8 25 2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7 6 5 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy. 65 Figure 2. INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES & WORLD EXPORTS 21 6 19 55 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* (1967=) Nov 17 5 Value of World Exports (IMF) (trillion dollars, annualized, nsa) 15 45 13 4 2/3 11 35 9 3 7 25 5 2 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 3 * Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. Source: Commodity Research Bureau and IMF. Page 1 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
14 13 Figure 3. YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER* Global Boom Bust Barometer 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 2/3 6 5 4 3 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 4 3 * Average of nearby price of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 1. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. 16 Figure 4. COMMODITY PRICES 16 14 14 12 12 8 2/3 8 6 CRB Raw Industrials Spot Price Index* 6 4 Brent Crude Oil Futures Price** (dollars per barrel) 2/3 4 2 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2 * Times 2 and divided by 1. Includes copper scrap, lead scrap, steel scrap, tin, zinc, burlap, cotton, print cloth, wool tops, hides, rosin, rubber, and tallow. ** Nearby futures price. Source: The Commodity Research Bureau and Haver Analytics. Page 2 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Leading Indicators Figure 5. LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS 13 1/9 13 11 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Aug 11 9 9 7 Conference Board LEI (24=) 7 5 5 3 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 3 14 13 Figure 6. LEADING & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS 1/22 14 13 12 11 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=, 4-wa) Dec 12 11 9 9 8 7 Conference Board CEI (24=) 8 7 6 6 5 4 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Conference Board and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 5 4 Page 3 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
-2 2 4 6 Figure 7. ECRI ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & HIGH YIELD CORPORATE SPREAD (basis points, inverted scale) 155 145 14 8 12 14 16 18 2 22 High-Yield Corporate Spread* ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 2/3 1/22 135 13 125 12 115 11 15 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. * High yield corporate less 1-year Treasury yield. Source: Merrill Lynch, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 22 2 18 Figure 8. ECRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 5 2/3 145 14 16 135 14 1/22 13 12 125 8 6 4 S&P 5 ECRI Weekly Leading Index (1992=) 1998 1999 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Standard & Poor s Corporation and Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI). 12 115 11 15 Page 4 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
12 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 - -12-14 -16 Figure 9. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) Based on US Dollar 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Citigroup. Citigroup Economic Surprise Index 2/3 12 8 6 4 2-2 -4-6 -8 - -12-14 -16 Figure 1. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX (percent) 5 5-5 2/3-5 - Based on G1 Currencies - - 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: Citigroup. - Page 5 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 Figure 11. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa) US Unemployment Claims 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/3 3 25 2 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Figure 12. INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (thousands, sa, four-week moving average) 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: US Department of Labor. 1/3 8 75 7 65 6 55 5 45 4 35 3 25 2 Page 6 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
11 1 Figure 13. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa) US Unemployment Claims 11 1 9 9 8 7 6 Continuing Continuing + Extended* 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 1/9 2 1 * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 Figure 14. CONTINUING UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS (millions, sa, four-week moving average) Number of Unemployed Continuing Continuing + Extended* 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 Dec 1/9 17 16 15 14 13 12 11 1 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 * Extended claims are nsa. Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Page 7 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Petroleum Usage 22 Figure 15. US PETROLEUM PRODUCTS SUPPLIED (million barrels per day, 52-week ma) 22 21 21 2 Total* (19.7) 1/29 2 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 16 * Includes motor gasoline, distillate fuel oils, and all other products. Source: US Department of Energy and Haver Analytics. 3.2 Figure 16. US GASOLINE DEMAND & VEHICLE MILES TRAVELED Nov 9.5 3. 1/29 9. 2.8 8.5 2.6 2.4 2.2 Gasoline Usage (million barrels per day, 52-wa) Vehicle Miles Traveled (trillion miles, 12-month sum) 8. 7.5 2. 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: US Department of Energy. 7. Page 8 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Electricity Output 8 78 Figure 17. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* (GW hours, 52-week moving average) 1/3 8 78 76 76 74 74 72 7 68 72 7 68 66 66 64 64 62 62 6 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 6 * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 6 Figure 18. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. REAL GDP (yearly percent change) 8 6 4 4 2 Q4 2 1/3-2 -2-4 -6 Electric Utility Output (52-week moving average) Real GDP 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17-4 -6 * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 9 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Electricity Output 8 78 Figure 19. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. PRODUCTION (52-week moving average) 1/3 115 11 76 15 74 72 95 7 9 68 66 Electricity Output (GW hours) 85 8 64 Total Manufacturing Production 75 62 7 6 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 65 * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. 8 78 Figure 2. US ELECTRIC UTILITY OUTPUT* vs. GDP (52-week moving average) 1/3 175 165 76 155 74 72 145 7 135 68 66 64 62 6 Electricity Output (GW hours) Real GDP (billion dollars, saar) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 125 1 15 95 * Excluding Hawaii and Alaska. Source: Edison Electric Institute. Page 1 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Railcar Loadings 6 Figure 21. RAILCAR LOADINGS* (thousand units, 26-wa) Total 6 55 55 1/3 5 5 45 45 4 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 4 * Carloads plus intermodal. Source: Atlantic Systems and Standard & Poor s. 4 Figure 22. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 4 35 Carloads 35 3 3 25 1/3 25 2 Intermodal 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 218 Source: Atlantic Systems. Page 11 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
3 Figure 23. RAILCAR LOADINGS: MOTOR VEHICLES US Railcar Loadings 3 25 25 2 2 1/3 15 15 1 5 Motor Vehicles Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa) Sales (million units, saar) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Atlantic Systems and Haver Analytics. 1 5 7 Figure 24. RAILCAR LOADINGS: LUMBER & WOOD PRODUCTS 26 6 23 2 5 17 14 4 3 Lumber & Wood Products Loadings (thousand units, 26-wa, sa) 1/3 1 8 Housing Starts (thousand units, saar) 5 2 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Atlantic Systems and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 2 Page 12 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Railcar Loadings 16 Figure 25. RAILCAR LOADINGS (thousand units, 26-wa) 12 11 14 Coal Nonmetallic Minerals 1 9 13 8 12 7 11 9 48 1/3 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 6 5 1/3 4 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 3 12 46 11 44 42 Chemicals & Petroleum Products 1/3 Pulp & Paper Products 1 4 9 38 8 36 34 32 1/3 7 6 3 18 16 14 12 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Metals & Products 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 5 Waste & Scrap Materials 11 1 9 1 8 6 4 1/3 9 92 94 96 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 16 18 2 Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 8 7 1/3 9 92 94 96 16 18 98 2 4 6 8 1 12 14 2 6 Page 13 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Railcar Loadings 25 Figure 26. ATA TRUCK TONNAGE INDEX & INTERMODAL RAILCAR LOADINGS 145 23 21 Railcar Loadings: Intermodal Containers (thousand units, 26-wa) (235.4) 1/3 Dec 14 135 13 19 125 12 17 115 11 13 ATA Truck Tonnage Index (2=, sa) (135.6) 15 11 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source: American Trucking Association and Atlantic Systems. 95 9 8 Figure 27. RAILCAR LOADINGS: INTERMODAL TRAILERS (thousand units, 26-wa) 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1/3 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Atlantic Systems and American Trucking Association. 3 2 Page 14 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Federal Tax Receipts & Deposits 27 26 Figure 28. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: INDIVIDUAL & PAYROLL (billion dollars) Dec 27 26 25 25 24 24 23 23 22 2/2 22 2 2 2 2 19 19 18 18 17 17 16 14 13 Deposits: Withheld Income & Employment Taxes (26-day sum) Receipts: Individual Income Taxes Plus Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts* (12-month sum) 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 16 14 13 * Employment and General Retirement, Unemployment Insurance, and Other Retirement. Source: US Treasury and Haver Analytics. 45 4 Figure 29. FEDERAL TAX RECEIPTS & DEPOSITS: CORPORATE INCOME TAXES (billion dollars) 45 4 35 2/2 Dec 35 3 3 25 25 2 Deposits (26-day sum) Receipts (12-month sum) 2 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 Source US Treasury and Haver Analytics. Page 15 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
24 22 Figure 3. US Business Credit SHORT-TERM BUSINESS CREDIT & INVENTORIES (billion dollars) 1/2 24 22 2 18 C&I Loans Plus Nonfinancial Commercial Paper (nsa) Nov 2 18 16 Manufacturing & Trade Inventories (sa) 16 14 14 12 12 8 8 6 6 4 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Note: Shaded areas denote recessions according to the National Bureau of Economic Research. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 4 2175 1975 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 42 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 6 Figure 31. COMMERCIAL & INDUSTRIAL LOANS (billion dollars, nsa) NONFINANCIAL COMMERCIAL PAPER (billion dollars, nsa) 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 1/2 1/27 2175 1975 1775 1575 1375 1175 975 775 575 42 38 34 3 26 22 18 14 6 Page 16 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
55 525 5 475 45 425 4 375 35 325 3 275 25 225 2 175 125 75 5 25 Figure 32. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: NEW PURCHASE INDEX & SINGLE-FAMILY HOME SALES 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Mortgage Bankers of America. MBA Mortgage Applications Survey Mortgage Applications: New Purchase Index (4-week average, sa) New Plus Existing Single-Family Home Sales (million units, saar) 1/29 8 7 6 5 4 3 12 Figure 33. MORTGAGE APPLICATIONS: REFINANCING INDEX (4-week average, sa) 12 8 8 6 6 4 4 2 1/29 2 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association. Page 17 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Commercial Paper 24 Figure 34. COMMERCIAL PAPER OUTSTANDING (billion dollars, sa) 7 22 6 2 Total 5 18 4 16 14 Domestic Financial Foreign Financial Foreign Bank (nsa) 1/27 3 12 2 1/27 8 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 125 35 1 15 95 Asset Backed Total Financial 1/27 325 3 275 85 Nonfinancial 25 75 225 65 2 55 1/27 175 45 35 125 25 1/27 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 75 Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 18 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Liquid Assets 11.5 11. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 Figure 35. LIQUID ASSETS* (trillion dollars, sa, ratio scale) 1/18 11.5 11. 1.5 1. 9.5 9. 8.5 8. 7.5 7. 6.5 6. 6. 5.5 5.5 5. 5. 4.5 4.5 4. 4. 3.5 3.5 3. 3. 2.5 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 2.5 * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 14 13 12 Figure 36. LIQUID ASSETS* 14 13 12 11 9 8 As a percent of Wilshire 5 (57.3) S&P 5 Market Cap (67.8) 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1/2 1/22 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 7 6 5 4 3 2 * Total savings deposits (including money market deposit accounts), small time deposits, and total money market mutual funds held by individuals & institutions. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Standard & Poor s Corporation, and Wall Street Journal. Page 19 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
85 8 77 73 69 65 6 57 53 49 45 4 37 33 29 25 2 17 13 9 5 Figure 37. INTEREST-BEARING DEPOSITS (billion dollars, sa) US Liquid Assets Savings Deposits (including Money Market Deposit Accounts)* Total Small Time Deposits** 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1/18 1/18 85 8 77 73 69 65 6 57 53 49 45 4 37 33 29 25 2 17 13 9 5 * Included in M2. ** Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 2.8 2.6 Figure 38. MONEY MARKET MUTUAL FUNDS (trillion dollars, sa) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 Held By: Retail* Institutions** 1/18 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.4 1.2 1.2 1. 1..8.6.4 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1/18.8.6.4 * Included in M2. IRA and Keogh account balances are excluded. ** Included in MZM, but not in M1 or M2. Source: Federal Reserve Board. Page 2 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Profits Cycle 13 12 Figure 39. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS Forward Earnings* 1/28 14 13 12 11 US Coincident Economic Indicators (24=) Dec 11 9 8 9 7 6 8 5 7 4 3 6 5 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 2 1 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. 12 Figure 4. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS (yearly percent change) 6 8 4 4 2 1/28-4 Forward Earnings* -2-8 US Coincident Economic Indicators -4-12 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-6 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board. Page 21 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
US Profits Cycle 7. Figure 41. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS 6.5 6. Forward Earnings* (weekly) 1/28 13 5.5 Total New Factory Orders (trillion dollars, saar) Nov 11 5. 9 4.5 7 4. 3.5 5 3. 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 3 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. 45 4 35 3 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 -4 Figure 42. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & NEW FACTORY ORDERS (yearly percent change) S&P 5 Forward Earnings* New Factory Orders (3-ma) 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Nov 1/28 25 2 15 1 5-5 -1-15 -2-25 -3-35 * 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 5 operating earnings per share. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Page 22 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
2 15 1 5 Figure 43. US Profits Cycle S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (yearly percent change) 5 4 3 2 1-5 -1-15 Forward Earnings* US Industrial Production 1/28 Dec -1-2 -3-4 -2 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18-5 * Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 4 Figure 44. S&P 5 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDEX OF AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS (yearly percent change) 1 2 5 1/28-2 S&P 5 Forward Earnings* -5 Aggregate Hours -4 8 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 9 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-1 * 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter. Time-weighted average of current and next year s consensus earnings estimates. Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S. Page 23 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
7 Confidence, Boom Bust Barometer, S&P 5 Figure 45. YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX Boom-Bust Barometer* 19 18 17 6 Consumer Comfort Index 1/3 16 14 5 13 12 1/3 11 4 9 8 3 7 6 2 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 5 4 * CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor. 2 Figure 46. YRI WEEKLY LEADING INDEX & S&P 5 INDEX 22 2 18 16 14 2/3 1/3 2 19 18 17 16 14 13 12 8 S&P 5 Index YRI Weekly Leading Index* 2 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 12 1 9 8 7 6 * Average of Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) and the four-week average of Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims. Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor s Corporation. Page 24 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
4.2 4. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6 Figure 47. GASOLINE PRICES (dollars per gallon) Gasoline Prices & Rig Count National Average Pump Price (weekly) Futures Price (daily)* 26 27 28 29 21 211 212 213 214 215 216 217 1/27 2/3 4.2 4. 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3. 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2. 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1..8.6 * Nearby contract. Source: Oil & Gas Journal and Haver Analytics. 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 8 Figure 48. BAKER HUGHES ACTIVE RIG COUNT (units) Total US (619) Gas (121) Oil (498) 24 22 2 18 16 14 12 8 6 4 2 1/29 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 Source: Baker Hughes Inc. 6 4 2 Page 25 / February 4, 216 / High Frequency Indicators www.
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