Rating Change 1 February 2016



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INDIA Hold Rating Change 1 February 2016 Pharma Improved performance, upgrade to Hold We upgrade (AIL) to Hold from Sell as results are in line with our expectations. Our TP of Rs4,700 (earlier Rs4,360) is based on 24x December 17E EPS of Rs195.9. AIL reported 16% YoY growth in revenues, 30bps improvement in margin to 15.3% and 9% YoY growth in net profit. Five of the company s top brands grew faster than the market and are likely to drive growth. Brand-driven revenue growth: AIL s revenues grew by 16% YoY to Rs6.67bn from Rs5.74bn on good growth in its flagship brands. Of the company s 19 major brands, five grew faster than the market growth rate of 16.6%. We expect these five brands to drive the company s growth. AIL also distributes Novo Nordisk s insulin range of products in the domestic market and derives distribution margin from them. The insulin range of products is under price control. One of the six distributed brands Victoza grew faster than the market growth rate of 16.6%. These insulin brands are likely to drive future growth. Margins improved by 30bps YoY: AIL s EBIDTA margin improved by 30bps YoY to 15.3% from 15.0%, largely due to the decline in personnel costs. The company s material costs grew marginally by 10bps to 56.3% from 56.2%. Other expenses grew by 20bps to 15.4% from 15.2% due to expenses in shifting of the corporate office to BKC. Personnel costs declined by 60bps to 13.0% from 13.6% due to strong sales growth. We expect margin improvement to continue going forward. Net profit growth by 9% YoY: AIL s net profit grew by 9% YoY to Rs704mn from Rs645mn due to margin improvement. AIL s tax rate increased to 36.5% from 31.9% of PBT. The 3.6% increase in price-controlled products in April 15 will improve revenues further. AIL is a debt-free, cash-rich company and its cash/share is at Rs337 as on 30 Sept 15. AIL is poised for rapid growth led by strong brands and marketing thrust. We expect the growth momentum to continue going forward. Recommendation and key risks: We upgrade AIL to Hold from Sell, with a revised TP of Rs4,700 (earlier Rs4,360) based on 24x December 17 EPS of Rs195.9, with a downside of 7.8% over the CMP. We have revised our EPS for FY16E and FY17E upwards by 2% and 3%, respectively. Key upward risk to our assumptions includes higher growth in its major brands in the domestic market, while key downward risk includes slowdown in the domestic market. We recommend a switch to Sanofi or Aurobindo. Y/E Mar (Rs mn) Q3FY16 Q3FY15 YoY (%) Q2FY16 QoQ (%) Q3FY16E % Var. Net sales 6,673 5,737 16.3 6,451 3.4 6,630 0.6 Total Expenditure 5,651 4,877 15.9 5,588 1.1 5,640 0.2 EBIDTA 1,022 860 18.8 863 18.4 990 3.2 EBIDTA Margin (%) 15.3 15.0 13.4 14.9 Other income 124 124 (0.6) 131 155 (20.3) PBDIT 1,145 985 16.3 993 15.3 1,145 0.0 PBT 1,109 948 17.0 955 16.1 1,105 0.4 Prov. For tax 405 303 33.9 338 19.9 365 11.0 % of PBT 36.5 31.9 35.4 33.0 PAT 704 645 9.0 617 14.0 740 (4.9) Target Price Rs4,700 Key Data CMP* Rs5,096 Bloomberg Code BOOT IN Downside 7.8% Curr Shares O/S (mn) 21.2 Previous Target Rs4,360 Diluted Shares O/S(mn) 21.2 Previous Rating Sell Mkt Cap (Rsbn/USDbn) 108.3/1.6 Price Performance (%)* 52 Wk H / L (Rs) 6177.7/3700.2 1M 6M 1Yr 5 Year H / L (Rs) 6177.7/1101.7 BOOT IN (13.6) 14.3 28.1 Daily Vol. (3M NSE Avg.) 4526 Nifty (5.1) (11.4) (14.2) *as on 1 st February 2016 ; Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research Shareholding pattern (%) Dec-15 Sept-15 June-15 Mar-15 Promoter 75.0 75.0 75.0 75.0 FIIs 1.7 1.2 0.6 0.7 DIIs 6.7 7.1 7.9 7.6 Others 16.6 16.7 16.5 16.7 Source: BSE, *as on 1 st February 2016 Trend in EBIDTA margin (%) (%) Source: Company, Centrum Research Trend in material cost (%) (%) 20 16 12 8 4 0 59 58 57 56 55 Source: Centrum Research Earning Revision Particulars (Rs bn) 15.0 11.3 FY16E FY17E New Old Chg (%) New Old Chg (%) Sales 26,387 26,387 0.0 30,997 30,997 (0.0) EBITDA 3,860 3,800 1.6 4,867 4,797 1.5 Ebitda margin (%) 14.6 14.4 bps 15.7 15.5 bps Adj PAT 2,779 2,729 1.8 3,513 3,403 3.2 Source: Centrum Research Estimates 15.1 13.4 15.3 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 56.2 57.9 57.4 57.3 56.3 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 Ranjit Kapadia, Ranjit.kapadia@centrum.co.in; 91 22 4215 9645 Y/E Dec / Mar (Rs mn) Revenue YoY (%) EBITDA EBITDA (%) Net profit YoY (%) DEPS (Rs) RoE(%) RoCE (%) P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) FY14 (15m) 22,969 11.2 2,683 11.7 1,985 47.6 93.4 27.7 25.2 54.6 38.6 FY15 22,886 24.5 3,123 13.6 2,290 15.4 107.7 26.5 24.6 47.3 32.6 FY16E 26,387 15.3 3,860 14.6 2,779 21.4 130.8 27.1 25.2 39.0 26.3 FY17E 30,997 17.5 4,867 15.7 3,513 26.4 165.3 28.5 26.2 30.8 20.4 FY18E 36,882 19.0 6,132 16.6 4,380 24.7 206.1 29.1 26.5 24.7 15.9 Centrum Equity Research is available on Bloomberg, Thomson Reuters and FactSet

Major brands and their performance As per IMS December 15 monthly data, AIL grew by 12.4% YoY slower than the industry growth rate of 16.6%. Nineteen of AIL s brands are listed among top 500 products. Of these, five brands grew faster than the market growth rate of 16.6%. We expect these five brands to drive future growth. AIL s two brands Thyronorm and Eptoin are under price control. Despite this, Thyronorm grew at 14.6% due to strong volume growth of ~11%. These top 19 brands contributed 27% to the company s revenues. The details are as follows: Exhibit 1: Performance of major brands Products (Rs mn) Ther. Category October'15 November'15 December'15 Rs mn Gr. Rate % Rs mn Gr. Rate % Rs mn Gr. Rate % Pharma industry 76,885 18.8 71,504 9.8 75,654 16.6 Company 4,847 16.0 4,407 3.8 4,812 12.4 Thyronorm thyroid hormone 218 14.7 202 19.8 230 14.6 Duphaston gynaecological 107 8.6 94-4.9 110 0.6 Digene antacid 89 19.0 79-6.7 94 7.2 Eptoin anti-epileptic 88 0.6 86 5.6 95 5.9 Vertin anti-emetic 95 22.2 78 1.8 87 10.4 Udiliv cirrhosis of liver 95 20.9 81 5.0 83 4.3 Duphalac laxative 88 17.7 75-1.0 80 6.2 Cremaffin laxative 73 9.7 67-1.6 74 10.6 Pediasure complete nutraceutical 46-3.1 40-14.1 42 (1.5) Cremaffin plus laxative 59 31.7 54 20.0 56 23.8 Zolfresh sedative 49 31.6 46 22.1 49 28.0 Prothiaden antidepressant 41 11.1 37-2.1 44 12.5 Paediasure nutraceutical 49 18.2 42 16.0 47 30.6 Ensure nutraceutical 42 25.3 36 5.2 38 15.5 Creon digestive 31 10.6 30 2.7 35 17.4 Betonin AST vitamins, minerals 39 28.8 29 4.4 25 11.2 Brufen NSAIDs 29 2.4 27-9.8 29 11.5 Similac nutraceutical 54 125.3 53 136.9 58 135.8 Epilex Chrono anti-epileptic Top brands 1,292 1,156 1,276 Source: IMS monthly data-october-december'15 Distribution of Novo Nordisk products AIL distributes Novo Nordisk s insulin range of products in India. These products contributed ~18% to the company s revenues. As per IMS-December 15 data, Victoza, one of the six distributed products of Novo Nordisk, grew faster than the market growth rate of 16.6%, indicating a strong brand image. Human Mixtard is the no.1 insulin brand in the domestic market which grew by 4.1%. Novomix 30 and Novo Rapid Penfill grew at 13.0% and (1.0)%, respectively. Human Actrapid grew at 5.2%. Tresiba and Victoza grew at (2.7)% and 27.1%, respectively, indicating weak demand for antidiabetic products in the domestic market. As these products are under price control (except Victoza) and AIL distributes these only in the domestic market, the company receives a distribution margin from Novo Nordisk. This impacts AIL s overall margin as Novo Nordisk s antidiabetic products contribute 18% to AIL s revenues. 2

Exhibit 2: Performance of Novo Nordisk brands Products Ther. Category October'15 November'15 December'15 (Rs mn) Rs mn Gr. Rate % Rs mn Gr. Rate % Rs mn Gr. Rate % Pharma industry 76,885 18.8 71,504 9.8 75,654 16.6 Company 4,847 16.0 4,407 3.8 4,812 12.4 Human Mixtard 30/70 antidiabetic 403 15.7 375 2.1 413 4.1 Novomix 30 antidiabetic 197 27.6 182 9.1 203 13.0 Novo Rapid Penfill antidiabetic 85 36.1 81 (0.9) 87 (1.0) Human Actrapid antidiabetic 79 29.0 73 5.6 79 5.2 Tresiba antidiabetic 41 6.4 36 (11.7) 42 (2.7) Victoza antidiabetic 37 49.5 36 49.1 31 27.1 Total 842 783 855 Source: IMS monthly data-october-december'15 Recommendations We upgrade AIL to Hold from Sell, with a revised TP of Rs4,700 (earlier Rs4,360) based on 24x December 17 EPS of Rs195.9, with a downside of 7.8% over the CMP. At the CMP of Rs5,096, the stock trades at 39.0x FY16E EPS of Rs130.8, 30.8x FY17E EPS of Rs165.3, and 24.7x FY18E EPS of Rs206.1. We have revised our EPS for FY16E and FY17E upwards by 2% and 3%, respectively. Exhibit 3: Earning Revision Particulars FY16E FY17E Current Earlier Chg(%) Current Earlier Chg(%) Sales 26,387 26,387 0.0 30,997 30,997 (0.0) EBIDTA 3,860 3,800 1.6 4,867 4,797 1.5 EBIDTA margin (%) 14.6 14.4 bps 15.7 15.5 bps Net profit 2,779 2,729 1.8 3,513 3,403 3.2 Source: Centrum Research Estimates 3

Valuation & key risks Exhibit 4: Sensitivity Analysis Sensitivity to key variables FY16E % change % impact on EBITDA % impact on EPS Sales 1 6.8 9.5 Material cost 1 (3.9) (5.4) Exhibit 5: Rolling forward EV/EBITDA chart 21 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 EV/EBITDA Mean + Std Dev Apr-12 Sep-12 Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates Exhibit 7: Comparative Valuations Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 Mean Mean - Std Dev Aug-15 Jan-16 Exhibit 6: Rolling forward P/E chart 25 20 15 10 5 Dec-08 May-09 Oct-09 Mar-10 Aug-10 Jan-11 Jun-11 Nov-11 Apr-12 Sep-12 Feb-13 Jul-13 Dec-13 May-14 Oct-14 Mar-15 P/E Mean Mean + Std Dev Mean - Std Dev Source: Bloomberg, Company, Centrum Research Estimates Aug-15 Jan-16 Company Mkt Cap (Rs mn) CAGR FY15-FY17E (%) EBITDA Margin (%) PE (x) EV/EBITDA (x) RoE (%) Div Yield (%) Rev. EBITDA PAT FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E FY15 FY16E FY17E 108,290 16.4 24.8 23.9 13.6 14.6 15.7 47.3 39.0 30.8 32.6 26.3 20.4 26.5 27.1 28.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 Glaxo SmithKline Ph. 279,256 16.0 20.8 19.0 19.2 19.4 20.8 52.9 58.1 46.6 55.2 47.7 37.8 22.1 26.5 32.9 1.9 1.5 1.7 Pfizer 103,052 15.4 28.3 40.3 20.7 24.1 25.5 57.0 36.3 29.0 25.3 18.3 14.5 13.7 13.8 15.7 0.6 0.9 1.1 Sanofi India 99,835 16.3 31.9 37.6 17.1 21.2 22.0 50.7 35.6 26.8 29.5 20.8 16.9 13.9 18.0 21.4 1.0 1.2 1.3, Prices as on 1 st February 2016 4

Quarterly financials, Operating Metrics and Key Performance Indicators Exhibit 8: Quarterly Financials Particulars (Rs mn) Q5FY14 Q1FY15 Q2FY15 Q3FY15 Q4FY15 Q1FY16 Q2FY16 Q3FY16 P & L Net sales 4,786 5,169 5,774 5,623 5,810 6,233 6,328 6,498 Other operating income 107 84 113 114 199 98 123 175 Total revenues 4,892 5,253 5,887 5,737 6,009 6,331 6,451 6,673 Material cost 2,764 2,990 3,413 3,224 3,479 3,635 3,695 3,757 Personnel cost 685 744 762 781 767 845 855 866 Other expenses 956 818 832 872 1,083 893 1,038 1,028 Total expenses 4,405 4,552 5,007 4,877 5,330 5,373 5,588 5,651 EBIDTA 488 701 880 860 679 958 863 1,022 Other income 109 96 122 124 135 125 131 124 PBDIT 597 797 1,002 985 814 1,082 993 1,145 Interest 0 0 0 0 5 0 4 1 Depreciation 35 35 44 36 34 34 34 36 Profit before tax 562 762 958 948 776 1,049 955 1,109 Tax provision 178 253 320 303 278 363 338 405 PAT before EO items 384 509 637 645 498 686 617 704 EO items 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 PAT after EO items 384 509 637 645 498 686 617 704 Growth (%) Revenues 16.6 19.3 29.9 19.5 22.8 20.5 9.6 16.3 EBIDTA 6.2 65.0 34.4 34.1 39.2 36.7-2.0 18.8 Net Profit 21.1 71.4 41.0 20.7 29.6 34.6-3.2 9.0 Margin (%) EBIDTA 10.0 13.3 14.9 15.0 11.3 15.1 13.4 15.3 Profit before tax 11.5 14.5 16.3 16.5 12.9 16.6 14.8 16.6 Net margin 7.8 9.7 10.8 11.2 8.3 10.8 9.6 10.5 Source: Company, Centrum Research Exhibit 9: Key performance indicators Key performance indicator FY14 (15m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Revenue growth % 11.2 24.5 15.3 17.5 19.0 Material cost (%) 57.9 57.3 57.0 56.7 56.3 Source: Centrum Research Estimates 5

Financials -standalone Exhibit 10: Income Statement Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 (15m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Net Sales 22,969 22,886 26,387 30,997 36,882 -Growth (%) 11.2 24.5 15.3 17.5 19.0 Material Cost 13,309 13,119 15,042 17,590 20,750 % of sales 57.9 57.3 57.0 56.7 56.3 Staff Cost 2997 3054 3460 3945 4615 % of sales 13.0 13.3 13.1 12.7 12.5 Other Expenses 3979 3590 4025 4595 5385 % of sales 17.3 15.7 15.3 14.8 14.6 Operating Expenses 20,286 19,763 22,527 26,130 30,750 % of sales 88.3 86.4 85.4 84.3 83.4 EBIDTA 2,683 3,123 3,860 4,867 6,132 -EBIDTA margin (%) 11.7 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.6 Depreciation 219 149 145 180 225 EBIT 2,464 2,974 3,715 4,687 5,907 Interest Income/(exp.) (1) (5) (6) - - PBT from operations 2,464 2,969 3,709 4,687 5,907 Other non op. income 482 475 520 616 703 PBT 2,946 3,444 4,229 5,303 6,610 -PBT margin (%) 12.8 15.0 16.0 17.1 17.9 Provision for tax 961 1,154 1,450 1,790 2,230 Effective tax rate (%) 32.6 33.5 34.3 33.8 33.7 Net profit 1,985 2,290 2,779 3,513 4,380 Exhibit 11: Key Ratios Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 (15m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Growth Metrices (%) Net sales 11.2 24.5 15.3 17.5 19.0 PBDIT (23.5) 46.0 21.7 25.2 24.7 Adjusted PAT 18.1 44.2 21.4 26.4 24.7 Profitability Metrices (%) EBIDTA margin 11.7 13.6 14.6 15.7 16.6 EBIT margin 12.8 15.1 16.0 17.1 17.9 PAT margin 8.6 10.0 10.5 11.3 11.9 Return ratios (%) ROE 27.7 26.5 27.1 28.5 29.1 ROCE 25.2 24.6 25.2 26.2 26.5 ROIC 90.8 119.7 100.5 119.3 115.6 Turnover Ratios (days) Inventory 62.5 59.8 59.6 58.9 59.0 Debtors 24.9 19.0 19.3 20.0 19.3 Creditors 37.7 40.9 40.4 40.2 39.7 Solvency Ratio (X) Debt-equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt -equity (0.6) (0.7) (0.6) (0.7) (0.7) Liquidity ratio 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.7 Interest coverage NA NA NA NA NA Dividend DPS Rs. 23.0 31.0 40.0 45.0 50.0 Dividend Yield (%) 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.0 Dividend Payout (%) 24.6 28.8 30.6 27.2 24.3 Per share (Rs) Basic EPS (reported) 93.4 107.7 130.8 165.3 206.1 FDEPS (reported) 93.2 107.5 130.5 164.9 205.6 FDEPS(adjusted) 93.4 107.7 130.8 165.3 206.1 BVPS 370.6 441.2 524.2 636.0 782.6 CEPS 103.7 114.8 137.6 173.8 216.7 Valuation metrices (x) P/E 54.6 47.3 39.0 30.8 24.7 P/BV 13.7 11.6 9.7 8.0 6.5 EV/EBIDTA 38.6 32.6 26.3 20.4 15.9 EV/Sales 4.5 4.5 3.8 3.2 2.6 Exhibit 12: Balance Sheet Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 (15m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E Share capital 213 213 213 213 213 Reserves & surplus 7,663 9,163 10,928 13,302 16,418 Total shareholder's fund 7,876 9,376 11,140 13,515 16,631 Deferred tax liability (13) (65) (75) (90) (110) Total capital employed 7,863 9,310 11,065 13,425 16,521 Gross block 2,092 2,157 2,329 2,534 2,784 Accumulated depreciation 1,110 1,197 1,461 1,696 1,976 Net Block 983 960 868 838 808 Capital WIP 13 39 45 55 70 Net fixed assets 995 999 913 893 878 Cash and bank 4,628 6,440 6,867 8,996 10,824 Inventories 3,655 3,844 4,780 5,220 6,700 Debtors 1,092 1,291 1,500 1,900 2,000 Other current assets and loans and advances 1,008 1,098 1,473 1,925 1,944 Total current assets and loans and advances 10,383 12,673 14,620 18,041 21,468 Current liabilities and provisions 3,516 4,362 4,468 5,509 5,824 Net current assets 6,868 8,311 10,153 12,532 15,644 Total assets 7,863 9,310 11,065 13,425 16,521 Exhibit 13: Cash Flow Y/E March (Rs mn) FY14 (15m) FY15 FY16E FY17E FY18E CF from operation Net Profit 1,985 2,290 2,779 3,513 4,380 Depreciation and amortization 219 149 145 180 225 Change in working capital (98) 368 (1,414) (251) (1,284) Deferred tax liability (25) (52) (10) (15) (20) Other non-cash charges (1) - 0 0 0 Net cash generated from operating activities 2,080 2,755 1,500 3,427 3,302 Cash Flow from Investing Activities Capex (123) (153) (59) (160) (210) Net cash from / (used) in investing activities (123) (153) (59) (160) (210) Cash Flow from financing activities Dividends paid (575) (793) (1,012) (1,138) (1,264) Net cash from / (used) in financing activities (575) (793) (1,012) (1,138) (1,264) Net Cash Flow 1,383 1,809 430 2,129 1,827 6

Appendix A Disclaimer Centrum Broking Limited ( Centrum ) is a full-service, Stock Broking Company and a member of The Stock Exchange, Mumbai (BSE) and National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSE). Our holding company, Centrum Capital Ltd, is an investment banker and an underwriter of securities. As a group Centrum has Investment Banking, Advisory and other business relationships with a significant percentage of the companies covered by our Research Group. Our research professionals provide important inputs into the Group's Investment Banking and other business selection processes. Recipients of this report should assume that our Group is seeking or may seek or will seek Investment Banking, advisory, project finance or other businesses and may receive commission, brokerage, fees or other compensation from the company or companies that are the subject of this material/report. Our Company and Group companies and their officers, directors and employees, including the analysts and others involved in the preparation or issuance of this material and their dependants, may on the date of this report or from, time to time have "long" or "short" positions in, act as principal in, and buy or sell the securities or derivatives thereof of companies mentioned herein. Centrum or its affiliates do not own 1% or more in the equity of this company Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein, and our proprietary trading and investing businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. We and our Group may rely on information barriers, such as "Chinese Walls" to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within us, or other areas, units, groups or affiliates of Centrum. Centrum or its affiliates do not make a market in the security of the company for which this report or any report was written. Further, Centrum or its affiliates did not make a market in the subject company s securities at the time that the research report was published. This report is for information purposes only and this document/material should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy, purchase or subscribe to any securities, and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of or be relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document does not solicit any action based on the material contained herein. It is for the general information of the clients of Centrum. Though disseminated to clients simultaneously, not all clients may receive this report at the same time. Centrum will not treat recipients as clients by virtue of their receiving this report. It does not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to all categories of investors. The countries in which the companies mentioned in this report are organized may have restrictions on investments, voting rights or dealings in securities by nationals of other countries. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. Any such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by or on behalf of the Company, Centrum, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. Centrum does not provide tax advice to its clients, and all investors are strongly advised to consult regarding any potential investment. Centrum and its affiliates accept no liabilities for any loss or damage of any kind arising out of the use of this report. Foreign currencies denominated securities are subject to fluctuations in exchange rates that could have an adverse effect on the value or price of or income derived from the investment. In addition, investors in securities such as ADRs, the value of which are influenced by foreign currencies effectively assume currency risk. Certain transactions including those involving futures, options, and other derivatives as well as non-investment-grade securities give rise to substantial risk and are not suitable for all investors. Please ensure that you have read and understood the current risk disclosure documents before entering into any derivative transactions. This report/document has been prepared by Centrum, based upon information available to the public and sources, believed to be reliable. No representation or warranty, express or implied is made that it is accurate or complete. Centrum has reviewed the report and, in so far as it includes current or historical information, it is believed to be reliable, although its accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. The opinions expressed in this document/material are subject to change without notice and have no obligation to tell you when opinions or information in this report change. This report or recommendations or information contained herein do/does not constitute or purport to constitute investment advice in publicly accessible media and should not be reproduced, transmitted or published by the recipient. The report is for the use and consumption of the recipient only. This publication may not be distributed to the public used by the public media without the express written consent of Centrum. This report or any portion hereof may not be printed, sold or distributed without the written consent of Centrum. The distribution of this document in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law, and persons into whose possession this document comes should inform themselves about, and observe, any such restrictions. Neither Centrum nor its directors, employees, agents or representatives shall be liable for any damages whether direct or indirect, incidental, special or consequential including lost revenue or lost profits that may arise from or in connection with the use of the information. This document does not constitute an offer or invitation to subscribe for or purchase or deal in any securities and neither this document nor anything contained herein shall form the basis of any contract or commitment whatsoever. This document is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information, may not be distributed to the press or other media and may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person. The distribution of this report in other jurisdictions may be restricted by law and persons into whose possession this report comes should inform themselves about, and observe any such restrictions. By accepting this report, you agree to be bound by the fore going limitations. No representation is made that this report is accurate or complete. 7

The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of Centrum Broking and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. None of the company or its directors or any other person accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of this document or its contents or otherwise arising in connection therewith. Centrum and its affiliates have not managed or co-managed a public offering for the subject company in the preceding twelve months. Centrum and affiliates have not received compensation from the companies mentioned in the report during the period preceding twelve months from the date of this report for service in respect of public offerings, corporate finance, debt restructuring, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger/acquisition or some other sort of specific transaction. As per the declarations given by them, Mr. Ranjit Kapadia, research analyst and and/or any of his family members do not serve as an officer, director or any way connected to the company/companies mentioned in this report. Further, as declared by him, he has not received any compensation from the above companies in the preceding twelve months. He does not hold any shares by him or through his relatives or in case if holds the shares then will not to do any transactions in the said scrip for 30 days from the date of release such report. Our entire research professionals are our employees and are paid a salary. They do not have any other material conflict of interest of the research analyst or member of which the research analyst knows of has reason to know at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of the public appearance. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, Centrum, its associated companies, their directors and employees are under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent Centrum from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or Centrum policies, in circumstances where Centrum is acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or any certain other circumstances. This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject Centrum Broking Limited or its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. Specifically, this document does not constitute an offer to or solicitation to any U.S. person for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or as an official confirmation of any transaction to any U.S. person unless otherwise stated, this message should not be construed as official confirmation of any transaction. No part of this document may be distributed in Canada or used by private customers in United Kingdom. The information contained herein is not intended for publication or distribution or circulation in any manner whatsoever and any unauthorized reading, dissemination, distribution or copying of this communication is prohibited unless otherwise expressly authorized. Please ensure that you have read Risk Disclosure Document for Capital Market and Derivatives Segments as prescribed by Securities and Exchange Board of India before investing in Indian Securities Market. chart 8100 6100 4100 2100 100 Feb-13 Aug-13 Jan-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Ltd Source: Bloomberg, Centrum Research 8

1 Business activities of Centrum Broking Limited (CBL) Disclosure of Interest Statement Centrum Broking Limited (hereinafter referred to as CBL ) is a registered member of NSE (Cash, F&O and Currency Derivatives Segments), MCX-SX (Currency Derivatives Segment) and BSE (Cash segment), Depository Participant of CDSL and a SEBI registered Portfolio Manager. 2 Details of Disciplinary History of CBL CBL has not been debarred/ suspended by SEBI or any other regulatory authority from accessing /dealing in securities market. 3 Registration status of CBL: Ranjit Kapadia is registered with SEBI as a Research Analyst (SEBI Registration No. INH000001352) 4 Whether Research analyst s or relatives have any financial interest in the subject company and nature of such financial interest 5 Whether Research analyst or relatives have actual / beneficial ownership of 1% or more in securities of the subject company at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the document. Glaxo SmithKline Pfizer Sanofi India 6 Whether the research analyst or his relatives has any other material conflict of interest 7 Whether research analyst has received any compensation from the subject company in the past 12 months and nature of products / services for which such compensation is received 8 Whether the Research Analyst has received any compensation or any other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report 9 Whether Research Analysts has served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company 10 Whether the Research Analyst has been engaged in market making activity of the subject company. No No Yes No Rating Criteria Rating Market cap < Rs20bn Market cap > Rs20bn but < 100bn Market cap > Rs100bn Buy Upside > 20% Upside > 15% Upside > 10% Hold Upside between -20% to +20% Upside between -15% to +15% Upside between -10% to +10% Sell Downside > 20% Downside > 15% Downside > 10% Member (NSE and BSE) Regn No.: CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: BSE: INB011454239 CAPITAL MARKET SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INB231454233 DERIVATIVES SEBI REGN. NO.: NSE: INF231454233 (TRADING & CLEARING MEMBER) CURRENCY DERIVATIVES: MCX-SX INE261454230 CURRENCY DERIVATIVES:NSE (TM & SCM) NSE 231454233 Depository Participant (DP) CDSL DP ID: 120 12200 SEBI REGD NO. : CDSL : IN-DP-CDSL-661-2012 PORTFOLIO MANAGER SEBI REGN NO.: INP000004383 Website: www.centrum.co.in Investor Grievance Email ID: investor.grievances@centrum.co.in Compliance Officer Details: Kavita Ravichandran (022) 4215 9842; Email ID: compliance@centrum.co.in Centrum Broking Ltd. (CIN :U67120MH1994PLC078125) Registered Office Address Bombay Mutual Building, 2nd Floor, Dr. D. N. Road, Fort, Mumbai - 400 001 Corporate Office & Correspondence Address Centrum House 6th Floor, CST Road, Near Vidya Nagari Marg, Kalina, Santacruz (E), Mumbai 400 098. Tel: (022) 4215 9000 9