Foresighting energy research and other observations of energy Saila Seppo, PhD, LicSc (Tech) Programme Manager 1
Foresighting energy research (Energy futures 2030) Target set at 2030 Source: FFRC ebook 1/2013, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen; ENERGY FUTURES 2030 Toward the Neo-Growth Paradigm of the Sixth-Wave Era, ISBN 978-952-249-150-3 2
The four generic scenarios as proposed by Jim Dator: continued growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformation. The broad societal change depicted by three concepts: 1) neo-growth 2) Kondratieff s sixth wave 3) the third industrial revolution. assumption: the importance of immaterial growth will continue to grow Source: FFRC ebook 1/2013, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen; ENERGY FUTURES 2030 Toward the Neo-Growth Paradigm of the Sixth-Wave Era, ISBN 978-952-249-150-3 3
Pre-assignments: 1) Radical sustainable energy solutions 2) Paradox between sustainable development and rising standards of living Source: FFRC ebook 1/2013, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen; ENERGY FUTURES 2030 Toward the Neo-Growth Paradigm of the Sixth-Wave Era, ISBN 978-952-249-150-3 4
The results envision a society of distributed energy of diverse energy solutions local production and consumption local and responsible lifestyles bottom-up power relations. As well as systems-sensitive, pervasive sustainability. Source: FFRC ebook 1/2013, Sirkka Heinonen & Juho Ruotsalainen; ENERGY FUTURES 2030 Toward the Neo-Growth Paradigm of the Sixth-Wave Era, ISBN 978-952-249-150-3 5
Helsingin Sanomat 19 May 2013: Liuskekaasu piirtää nyt maailmaa uusiksi (Shale gas redefines the world) 2 June 2013: Energia sellutehtaan päätuotteeksi (Energy to become main product of pulp factory) Energy makes the world politics go round Today s world is completely dependent on energy Discussion centred on unlearning Preparing for energy disasters Energy systems are solutions not only to energy consumption, but also to the economy, living standards and welfare. Saila Seppo 6
IEA review of Finnish energy policies (23 May 2013) Written in 2012 on the results from 2011. IEA recommends that the Finnish Government maintain its key policy pillars of bioenergy and nuclear energy, which are key to addressing energy security concerns in a comprehensive and sustainable manner. Jan Vapaavuori (Minister of Economic Affairs) 23 May: It s easy to agree with the IEA s analysis that the diversity of energy sources and the effective use of energy are Finland s strengths. Another strength is a broad public understanding of energy policy issues. The various Finnish governments have made far-reaching decisions for energy policy. To maintain this good tradition, I ve proposed that a cross-party parliamentary working group be set up to draft a new energy and climate roadmap for 2050. Source: EK, Mikael Ohlström 7
FINLAND: Total consumption of energy 1,388 PJ (= 386 TWh) in 2011. Renewable energy accounted for 28%. Oil 24% Wood 23% Nuclear energy 17% Coal 11% Natural gas 9% Peat 6% Net imports of electricity 4% Water 3% Other 3% Source: Statistics Finland 8
Source: Demos, Tuuli Kaskinen 9
CHANGE Electric car meet-up in Helsinki on 29 April Many Finnish cottages have solar panels In Germany: at least half of all renewable energy production citizenowned In Norway: half of all cars sold were electric In Germany: 2012 the first time car purchasing declined among under-30s With solar energy and energy storage, do we really need the national grid? Synergy for ventilation and heating EU energy policy is stop-and-go countries take their own paths Saila Seppo 10
We re dealing with a fascinating topic We can t survive without foresighting we need scenarios and networks Energy safety, energy storage We need new paths Let s not bury our heads in the sand We re doing great and going ahead as planned. We re feeling good, until our neighbour outstrips us. Soon, business declines. IBM 1958: There is a world market for about five computers Debate in the 1980s and 1990s: Centralised/decentralised computing? Businesses trained to accept the computer geeks Even today, we re told that young people are different and think differently Energy start-ups Saila Seppo 11
8 out of 10 of the biggest companies are energy companies Climate change A challenging situation forces that oppose change reorganisation for the bigger ones innovation through growing start-ups The solution is provided by a combination of measures. Saila Seppo 12
Affordable energy Energy investment New energy sources New energy solutions Innovation-friendly policy Business models Saila Seppo 13
Emissions target Target for renewable energy Inexpensive energy Energy efficiency Self-sufficiency Joint power-distribution network Source: Professor Markku Ollikainen, University of Helsinki 14
How does Finnish energy differ from that of the rest of the world? Can we get references for exports from Finland? Are the theories formed to suit the modern information society? Are the community structure and the planning suited for decentralised energy? Local energy, considerable change, zero-energy housing Net energy production, efficiency ratio Corruption, subsidies Saila Seppo 15