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1 Pyramid Research Publisher Sample Phone: (US) or or (Int'l) Hours: Monday - Thursday: 5:30am - 6:30pm EST Fridays: 5:30am - 5:30pm EST [email protected] MarketResearch.com

2 SAMPLE PAGES M-Commerce in Sub-Saharan Africa: Making Sense of a Growing Mobile Business Kerem Arsal Manager, Africa & Middle East Severin Luebke Analyst This report is part of Pyramid Research s series of Africa & Middle East Insider Reports September 2014 Edition 2014 Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider

3 Executive summary Although the term m-commerce is widely used in both literature and news media, understanding of this industry is still lagging. This report provides an overview of the growing m-commerce market in Sub-Saharan Africa by looking at four aspects of mobile transactions. This report first outlines the current structure of the m- commerce industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. It looks at two types of m-commerce transactions, distinguishing between transactions completed on a mobile phone and purchases of goods or services using mobile money. The report examines the industry growing around both of these types of transactions. In order to assess the various aspects of the market, we use a four-step framework consisting of product identification, purchase and payment, delivery and post-purchase feedback. The section on product identification looks at the way companies in Africa are able to target consumers based on a set of criteria revealed through the online content viewed on their mobile phones. The second part of the report investigates the existing mobile-payment infrastructures in Kenya and Tanzania. It highlights the differences between the two systems and the potential for a payment platform targeting enterprises. The infrastructure deficit, both domestic and international, is a key cost to African companies looking to set up an m- commerce platform. The third section explores why companies have located in certain countries. The report also focuses on the interaction between companies and consumers, providing an understanding of the existing and potential relationships between the two. Finally, we summarize the key findings of the report and highlight some of the issues that need to be overcome in order for the industry to grow. About the author Severin Luebke is the Pyramid Research Analyst for the Eastern and Southern African regions. He is responsible for producing in-depth analysis, forecasts and reports for all of his designated countries and has contributed to a number of consulting projects on a variety of topics, including wholesale growth, IT services and enterprise market sizing. Severin is also interested in customer retention programs as well as the growth of national broadband strategies. He works out of Pyramid s London office Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 2

4 Key findings Pyramid Research expects mobile-money transactions to continue to become more common across the continent. We believe the key to growth will be an increase in the interoperability of payment systems offered by providers. The combination of mobile money and mobile commerce has the potential to dramatically alter the way commercial transactions are completed in Africa. Improvements in mobile connectivity are increasing the number of potential shoppers online across Sub-Saharan Africa, but the mobile-money infrastructure remains a constraint for the industry Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 3

5 Purchase & payment: Tanzania highlights the potential for interoperability Kenya is a unique case because of the dominance of Safaricom in providing the mobile money infrastructure. The situation in Tanzania is different, and cooperation will increasingly drive growth in this market. Although Tanzania has many mobile subscribers and a significant number of them, about 40%, have mobile-money services, no operator dominates the m-money market. The largest operator in Tanzania, Vodacom, has only about XX% of the market; the other big players, Airtel, Tigo and Zantel, have a combined XX%. Until recently, the most advanced mobile-money transaction service that operators were able to provide was bill payment with a number of partner organizations. This is a common service in Africa, and the number of partners was small. In June 2014, the market was shaken when Airtel, Tigo and Zantel decided to combine their P2P transfer services. The reason the operators are implementing this interoperability is to enable their customers to send money to family members who may not be on the same mobile network. This offers the possibility of creating a payment system that lets consumers pay any merchant with a mobile-money account, regardless of which MNO they use. In September 2014, there were no other markets in Africa with similar interoperability. Although there are still relatively few merchant accounts in Tanzania, this platform could increase the number of companies accepting mobile-money payments significantly. EXHIBIT 18: Mobile market shares in Tanzania by operator, 2014 Operator Vodacom Tanzania Airtel Tanzania Tigo Tanzania Mobile-money service M-PESA Airtel Money Tigo Pesa Source: Pyramid Research (2014) 2014 Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 4 Zantel Tigo Tanzania XX% Airtel Tanzania XX% TTCL Zantel XX% XX% Ezy Pesa Vodacom Tanzania XX%

6 Delivery: Transport cost are a key determinant of m-commerce operations Costal countries have a significant advantage over land-locked countries when it comes to transportation costs. Their port and sometimes rail infrastructure means goods can be delivered faster and cheaper than in landlocked countries. EXHIBIT 25: Cost of importing a 40ft dry container by port or airport (US$) 0 XXX XXX 1,000-1,999 XXX XXX 2,000-2,999 XXX XXX 2,000-2,999 XXX XXX Sources: World Bank (2014), Pyramid Research (2014) The advantage of coastal areas is reflected in the existing and planned footprint of online retailer Jumia, which has focused on countries with relatively low transportation costs. Jumia's only exception is Uganda, where costs are relatively high: its infrastructure is, however, heavily dependent on the Mombasa and Dar es Salaam ports and by extension on the costal infrastructure in East Africa. Furthermore, Uganda s economy has grown rapidly over the past few years and presents a strong long-term opportunity. The costal countries are also likely to have higher GDP per capita, which means there is likely to be more disposable income. This makes them more attractive to e- commerce providers, whose consumers will demand larger and more expensive products, which are hard to source locally. EXHIBIT 26: Countries with an existing or planned Jumia presence 2014 Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 5 Egypt Cameroon Ghana Ivory Coast Kenya Morocco Nigeria Uganda Angola (not active yet) Senegal (not active yet) Tanzania (not active yet)

7 Table of contents Executive summary Introduction Defining mobile commerce Mobile vs. electronic commerce in Africa The role of mobile phones in Africa A framework for mobile-commerce transactions in Africa Product search and identification Purchase and payment Delivery Post-purchase feedback Key findings and recommendations 2014 Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 6

8 Table of exhibits EXHIBIT 1: Household consumption in three markets in Sub-Saharan Africa (current US dollars) EXHIBIT 2: Bank account and mobile-money account penetration in Africa 2012 EXHIBIT 3: Mobile-device transactions and mobile-money transactions EXHIBIT 4: MasterCard Mobile Payment Readiness Index EXHIBIT 5: Activities most often performed on mobile phones in Africa EXHIBIT 6: Most popular e-commerce providers in Africa by website traffic ranking EXHIBIT 7: Level of comfort with mobile advertising EXHIBIT 8: Where do you start product research?* EXHIBIT 9: Website distribution of targeted ads EXHIBIT 10: Age distribution of consumers targeted EXHIBIT 11: Process of delivering m-advertising EXHIBIT 12: ATMs per 100,000 adults in four markets EXHIBIT 13: Conventional use of mobile-money transfers for commerce EXHIBIT 14: Percentage of cashless transactions by country EXHIBIT 15: Overview of mobile-money payment systems EXHIBIT 16: Documents required to open an account EXHIBIT 17: Money transfer flow in an M-PESA merchant transaction EXHIBIT 18: Mobile market shares in Tanzania by operator, 2014 EXHIBIT 19: Merchant payment system duplication in Tanzania EXHIBIT 20: Supplier payment methods of informal businesses EXHIBIT 21: Customer payment methods of informal businesses EXHIBIT 22: Overview of payment options in Kenya EXHIBIT 23: Performance on the International Logistics Performance Index EXHIBIT 24: Cost of importing a 40ft dry container by port or airport (US$) EXHIBIT 25: Countries with an existing or planned Jumia presence EXHIBIT 26: Existing structural deficits in various regions globally EXHIBIT 27: Overview of minimum delivery costs EXHIBIT 28: Jumia basic facts EXHIBIT 29: Jumia s key locations in Nigeria EXHIBIT 30: Number of Facebook users by country EXHIBIT 31: Overview of findings 2014 Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 7

9 Reasons to buy This Insider Report provides a comprehensive examination of the value chain and some of the key companies involved in the growth of the mobile-commerce industry in Sub-Saharan Africa. The report looks at some of the existing m-commerce infrastructure in Africa as well as the industry s potential for expansion. The report looks at a number of the competitors in the sector and assesses their business models and ambitions. The report discusses existing opportunities in the m- commerce market in region, providing a number of actionable recommendations for market participants. The report gives key recommendations on how companies should act if they are interested in this market Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 8

10 Methodology This Telecom Insider Report comprises opportunity and competitive market assessments of m-commerce in Sub- Saharan Africa. Insights and data were captured through primary and secondary research: Primary Research consisted of interviews with key contacts at m-commerce players to gather insights on areas from consumption patterns to a market overview. Secondary, desk-based research ranged from data collection on mobile data services and pricing plans of mobile operators across the selected countries to a review of industry trends; it also drew on Pyramid s proprietary databases for mobile market indicators. Our sources include publicly available documents from market players, including financial statements, quarterly and annual reports, presentations and press releases, as well as information from local and international authorities, online and print media, and publications by infrastructure vendors Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 9

11 Related research Mobile Data Forecast (updated quarterly) A premium version of the Mobile Demand Forecast, Mobile Data tracks current and future demand for mobile data services, within the context of overall mobile demand. Available for 66 markets worldwide, this forecast includes all the same tracking as the standard Mobile Demand Forecast but breaks down mobile data ARPS, revenues and subscriptions at the service level. Data from these Forecasts is available online for subscribers to our DataTracker service. Mobile Financial Services in Africa: Deployment and Configuration Strategies for Operators Globally, 41 mobile money services were launched in 2012, and 43% of forecast deployments are in sub-saharan countries. Operators choose different strategies to address the mobile financial services (MFS) market: One is to deploy services sequentially in each country, with the type of services rolled out determined by a pre-set road map. A less risky strategy is to configure deployments to suit each specific country. This Insider presents two operator case studies: MTN (with its Mobile Money m-money service) and Orange (Orange Money). It concludes with some recommendations. Published for each of the world s most dynamic regions, our Telecom Insiders are packed with trend analysis, industry best practices, market sizing and forecasting, competitor analysis and case studies. Kenya: Steady Growth Expected as Operator Dynamics Set to Change This Country Intelligence Report by Pyramid Research offers a precise, incisive profile of Kenya s mobile and fixed telecommunications markets based on comprehensive proprietary data and insights from our research in the Kenyan market. Published annually, this presentation-quality, executive-level report provides detailed analysis of the near-term opportunities, competitive dynamics and evolution of demand by service type and technology/platform across the fixed telephony, broadband and mobile in addition to a review of key regulatory trends. Smartphone Strategies: How Devices Can Revitalize the Role of Operators in the Mobile Ecosystem Revolution has been sweeping the mobile telecom world for years by the rise of a new ruler the smartphone. In this Thematic Report, Pyramid Research presents strategies for mobile operators to use in response to the challenges brought by the new situation. It examines strategies such as device portfolios, smartphone distribution, subsidies, buy-backs, trade-ins, reverse subsidies, own-branded devices, handset financing, tablets and OTT services. The report examines the device strategies of five mobile operators in depth: AT&T, MTS, Telefónica, China Unicom and Orange. Mobile Financial Services in Africa: Deployment and Configuration Strategies for Operators Globally, 41 mobile money services were launched in 2012, and 43% of forecast deployments are in sub-saharan countries. Operators choose different strategies to address the mobile financial services (MFS) market: One is to deploy services sequentially in each country, with the type of services rolled out determined by a pre-set road map. A less risky strategy is to configure deployments to suit each specific country. This Telecom Insider presents two operator case studies: MTN (with its Mobile Money m-money service) and Orange (Orange Money). It concludes with some recommendations. Published for each of the world s most dynamic regions, our Telecom Insiders are packed with trend analysis, industry best practices, market sizing and forecasting, competitor analysis and case studies Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 10

12 About Pyramid Research ADVISING LEADERS IN THE GLOBAL COMMUNICATIONS INDUSTRIES ON EMERGING MARKETS AND SERVICES OPPORTUNITIES Pyramid Research ( offers practical solutions to the complex demands our clients face in the global communications industry. Its analysis is uniquely positioned at the intersection of emerging markets, emerging technologies and emerging business models, powered by the bottom-up methodology of our market Forecasts for more than 100 countries a distinction that has remained unmatched for more than 25 years. HOW WE COVER COMMUNICATIONS MARKETS Our highly structured analysis closely examines the performance, technology trends, macroeconomic and regulatory environment, of service providers and equipment vendors in each of the more than 100 countries we cover. Using a bottom-up approach, we size market demand across services and countries, and conduct end-user surveys to validate adoption trends and anticipate shifts in demand. Our commitment to intensive, direct interviewing of regulatory authorities, service providers and manufacturers complemented with end-user data ensures the most reliable portrait of every market we examine Pyramid Research Africa & Middle East Telecom Insider 11

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