Q Results Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May 2010

Transcription

1 Q Results Analyst Presentation Henk van Dalen, CFO 3 May 2010

2 Overall trading conditions continue to improve GROUP Operating income 251 million ( 163 million in Q1 20); quarter benefited from four extra working days Profit attributable to shareholders 143 million ( 76 million in Q1 20) Net debt stable versus year-end 20 Vision 2015 implementation as per AGM announcement progressing EXPRESS Development of Express volumes continues to improve Negative year-on-year yield development shows early signs of stabilisation Underlying* operating income 59 million ( 23 million in Q1 20) MAIL Addressed mail volumes in the Netherlands declined by 9.7% (corrected for working days and one-off mailings) Good performance improvement Emerging Mail & Parcels Underlying* operating income 159 million ( 149 million in Q1 20) * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 20 2

3 Consensus pauses for breath Development of forecast consensus GDP growth (%) Dec 08 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan 10 Feb 10 Mar 10 US 2010E consensus Europe 2010E consensus 3

4 Statement of income millions Actual Q Underlying* Q Underlying* Q1 20 Actual Q1 20 Revenues 2,747 2,569 2,444 2,444 EBITDA Operating income (EBIT) Net financial (expense) / income (36) (40) Income taxes (71) (47) Effective tax rate 33.0% 38.5% Profit for the period EPS (in cents) * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 20 4

5 impact of one-off charges and fx millions Q Q1 20 Express Reported EBIT Working days (16) Restructuring related costs 3 Fx (2) Underlying EBIT Mail Reported EBIT Working days (19) Underlying EBIT

6 Express Q1 underlying Volume growth strong; yield pressure continues Improved year-on-year underlying operating margin Core consignments +6.6% (day-count adj); cost per consignment -5.6% millions Q * Q1 20 * Organic Acq Total Revenues 1,488 1, % 2.1% 9.1% EBITDA % 1.3% 42.7% Operating income (EBIT) % -4.3% 156.5% Operating margin 4.0% 1.7% * The underlying figures are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in 2010 and the impact of various one-off charges in 20 6

7 Express 2010 volumes near 2007 levels Volume development Core kilos, year-on-year change, in % 140% 60% 130% 50% 120% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% Road Air Weeks 1, 2 Weeks 3-13 Weeks 1, 2 Weeks versus versus 2007 Volume development improving, however: Yield pressure Cost inflation Core volumes exclude Special Services, Hoau, Mercúrio, Araçatuba and LIT Cargo 7

8 Express yield remains negative year-on-year but stabilising Core revenue quality yield (excluding fuel surcharge) Year-on-year development at respective FX 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 8

9 Express yield development Core revenue quality yield trend (excluding fuel surcharge) Development rebased to Q at respective FX Q1-07 Q2-07 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08 Q4-08 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-10 9

10 Mail Q1 underlying Four extra working days, good performance Emerging Mail & Parcels Drop in volumes: -9.7% underlying (corrected for working days and one-off mailings) Master plan savings 18 million millions Q * Q1 20 Org Acq Total Revenues 1,022 1, % -0.2% -0.4% EBITDA % 1.1% 5.1% Operating income (EBIT) % 1.3% 6.7% Operating margin 15.6% 14.5% * The underlying figures over 2010 are at constant currency and exclude the impact of more working days in

11 Mail NL; addressed mail volumes Volume decline -5.7% or -9.7% (corrected for working days and one-off mailings) Positive mix change bulk versus single item mail 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% -12% Total Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Actual 20 Actual corrected for working days and one-off mailings 11

12 Positive legal outcome on sector labour agreements Towards level playing field Court case Sandd and SelektMail against Ministry of Economic Affairs Ruling that 3.5 years after liberalisation at least 80% of employees must have a labour agreement TNT Post CLA Sandd SelektMail Agreement TNT Post Sector CLA + Administrative Decree Sector CLA implying agreed average wage per hour April years 12

13 Net cash generated, free cash flow million Q Q1 20 FY 2010 remarks Changes in working capital (176) 6 Working capital outflow Cash generated from operations Interest paid (12) (22) Income taxes paid (36) (16) Taxes paid 300 million, including delayed payment of 175 million Net cash from operating activities Interest received 4 11 Net capex (33) (54) Capex around 400 million Free cash flow

14 Net debt development Q Net debt millions 28 Mar Dec 20 Net cash from operating activities Net Capex Acquisitions Other 3 Apr 2010 (1,106) (1,127) (1,722) 31 (33) (5) (14) 14

15 Dividend In cash Interim dividend Final dividend 0.35 or In ordinary shares Premium 2.21% above cash dividend Shareholders who elected a final dividend in shares will receive one new TNT N.V. ordinary share for every 65 dividend rights 51.9% of outstanding capital has elected for dividend to be paid in stock 48.1% of outstanding capital has elected for dividend to be paid in cash 15

16 Volcanic ash disrupts air traffic over Europe, outstanding performance road networks Air traffic severely curtailed Contingency plans put in place relying on a specific road network to replace our air line hauls Priority agreement with Eurotunnel enabled connection to UK Little to no backlogs in TNT locations in Europe, but backlogs experienced outside Europe since there was no alternative to air uplift Extra costs limited 16

17 Growing Emerging Platforms Third B ERF freighter between Europe and Asia Operational Q Outbound from China utilisation virtually 100% Europe Increased demand for intercontinental service Asia Uplift goods from factories Direct feed into TNT s networks around the world 17

18 Vision 2015 next steps DDD Develop detailed implementation plans for four focus areas Implement growth plans Focus on cost leadership Mail Initiate an internal carve out of Mail business and develop equity story Obtain clarity on Mail regulatory position on the Universal Service Obligation in the Netherlands Conduct a full review of alternatives for the Mail business to ensure best positioning for company and stakeholders Seek required approvals and advice from various stakeholders Group Assess organisation and structure Optimise overhead 18

19 Outlook 2010 Overall Modestly improving business environment Global economic recovery remains fragile caution is warranted Focus on costs and cash will continue Express Continuing volume growth with some recovery of weight per consignment and lower cost per consignment Revenues and results expected well above 20 levels The extent of possible pressure because of price/mix, wage increases and cost inflation will influence the magnitude of the improvement Mail Addressed volume decline in the Netherlands of 7-9% Master plan savings of 75 million targeted Results expected to be below 20 levels 19

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21 Warning about forward looking statements Some statements in this presentation are "forward-looking statements". By their nature, forward-looking statements involve risk and uncertainty because they relate to events and depend on circumstances that will occur in the future. These forward-looking statements involve known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors that are outside of our control and impossible to predict and may cause actual results to differ materially from any future results expressed or implied. These forward-looking statements are based on current expectations, estimates, forecasts, analyses and projections about the industries in which we operate and management's beliefs and assumptions about future events. You are cautioned not to put undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, which only speak as of the date of this press release and are neither predictions nor guarantees of future events or circumstances. We do not undertake any obligation to release publicly any revisions to these forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date of this press release or to reflect the occurrence of unanticipated events, except as may be required under applicable securities laws. 21