Financing Drivers and Funding Rapid Growth

Transcription

1 Financing Drivers and Funding Rapid Growth IDEA International District Cooling Symposium October 2007 Mohamed Elshentenawy Palm District Cooling

2 Presentation outline GCC Economic Outlook District Energy Investments in a regional context How are all these projects going to be financed? Critical Success Factors/Challenges The aftermath of the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Future Challenges for Financing Conclusion

3 GCC Economic Outlook The Middle East was the one of fastest growing regions in the world (GDP Growth 5.9%) after China and India last year This Growth is driven by: high oil prices, low interest rates and ample liquidity in the banking system expansionary government fiscal policies That compares to China s 9.4%, the United States 2.9, and a world average of 5 % In the Gulf region, real GDP growth rates are forecasted to maintain their current levels at 5.9% in 2008, supported by firm oil and natural gas prices GCC current account ($ million) Current account surplus will continue to be large Source IMF October 07

4 GCC Economic Outlook September 11th events caused Middle Eastern funds in excess of US$ 1 trillion dollars to cross back to the region from major developed markets such as the US and Europe. Excess funds assisted in the emergence of major Islamic investment banks catering such high risk aggressive clientele. With increased oil revenues GCC governments are enabled to furbish infrastructure projects and minimize sovereign lending. Currency Peg to the US Dollar of major GCC countries, devaluation of the US Dollar against major currencies, and vast fundamental disconnect between GCC economies and the US economy is resulting in artificial importation of inflation.

5 Factors Affecting Economic Outlook GDP real growth Inflation Current Account Surplus of GCC economies Crude Oil Prices (currently US$ 91.8/bbl) EPC costs Geopolitical stability Liquidity

6 District Energy Investments in a regional context GCC Investment Forecast Forecasted total investments in of US$ 45 billion by ,000,000 45,000,000 40,000,000 35,000,000 30,000,000 25,000,000 20,000,000 15,000,000 10,000,000 5,000,000 $50,000,000 $45,000,000 $40,000,000 $35,000,000 $30,000,000 $25,000,000 $20,000,000 $15,000,000 $10,000,000 $5,000,000 Thousand US$ - Jordan Kuwait Qatar Bahrain Oman Saudia Arabia UAE $- Tonnage Estimated Investment US$ Cummulative Investment US$ Source: PDC Market Research

7 District Energy Investments in a regional context Saudi Arabia 5-year ( ) energy investments in the Arab region: US$345 billion according to Apicorp and US$ 1.5 trillion by MEED Qatar Iran Algeria Egypt UAE Kuwait Libya Oman Syria Ir aq Yemen Bahrain Tunisia Sudan Morocco Lebanon Jor dan Mauritania Review: US$210 billion Review: US$260 billion Review: US$395 billion APICORP Research US$ billion

8 How are all these projects going to be financed? Capital Markets Private Equity Investments Bonds and Sukuks Syndicated Debt Markets

9 Success Drivers Robust Project Parameters Execute project contracts that meet the complex due diligence requirements of lenders Proper identification, allocation, and mitigation of project risks Understanding the key Investment criteria or lending criteria to increase access to liquidity sources Availability of Infrastructure (Power, Water and Natural Gas) Control of EPC and operating costs Ability to mitigate increased cost associated with project delays stemming from external factors (master plan changes, infrastructure delays, force majeure events, etc..) Success in implementing appropriate Tariff Structures that meets the demand of freehold End Users while satisfying the requirements of financial institutions and rating agencies Stability of financial and capital markets

10 Ripple effects from the Subprime Mortgage Meltdown Most Middle East businesses had assumed the crisis would bypass the region. Project finance borrowers have discovered otherwise The tightening of the markets has resulted in deals remaining in the market longer than anticipated International banks are re-pricing PF risk (Pricing for transactions have jumped bps) Tightening of financial covenants All these factor resulted in downward revision in project returns as financing costs increased. So far the turmoil caused by the global credit has affect 2 major Qatari transactions the US1.2 billion bond Qafco 5 project was dropped (despite securing an Aa3 rating from Moody s) and the QASCO s US$ 1.3 billion refinancing was cancelled after failure to secure enough interest from banks.

11 Future Challenges for Financing Significant further investment required Increasing size of projects Master developers understanding the contractual requirements of District Cooling providers that would allow access to non-recourse financings Availability of infrastructure for Power, water, sewage and natural gas Shortage of financially robust and technically viable EPC contractors

12 Future Challenges for Financing Further escalation in commodity / raw material prices, compounding increases seen in engineering, procurement and construction costs Increases in project breakevens reducing flexibility to manage future downturns in product pricings Weakening of contractual terms levels of liquidated damages, caps on liabilities, guarantees available, minimum performance specifications, completion testing regimes Acceptance of multiple EPC contracts with no wrap thereby increasing interface risks between contracts; loss of single lump sum turnkey contract, a traditional cornerstone of non recourse project financing

13 Conclusion GCC region is expecting very strong GDP growth and trend is expected to continue for 2008 Currency Peg to the US Dollar causing unwarranted inflationary pressures on GCC economies Continued rise in Oil Prices will further fuel the current economic expansion and Current Account surplus of GCC economies. District Energy Investments is expected to reach US$ 45 billion by 2015 These investments will be competing with US$1.5 trillion of Power, Oil and Gas and infrastructure projects for financing. Bankable Contractual Frame work, creative financial structures, availability of credible EPC contractors, raw Material costs, and Tariffs structure are a few of the Challenges and success drivers to access liquidity The region is not immune for international financial turmoil as most businesses believed.