Presentation To: 22 st Annual Air Monitoring Users Group (AMUG) Meeting

Transcription

1 Presentation To: 22 st Annual Air Monitoring Users Group (AMUG) Meeting NEW NUCLEAR POWER PLANT CONSTRUCTION - WORLDWIDE Ted Quinn, ANS Past President Vice President, Longenecker and Associates, tedquinn@cox.net May 2010

2 Agenda World Overview United States Challenges

3 General Market Overvi ew Based on t he proj ect dat abase, 384 uni t s are current l y pl anned and 70 uni t s are current l y under const ruct i on Number of Uni t s and St at us 384 Comment s Chart shows number of uni t s pl anned and under const ruct i on worl d wi de If construction of a project has started, all units of that projects are counted as under construction Overal l, 70 uni t s are under const ruct i on whi l e an addi t i onal 314 uni t s are in earl i er or l at er pl anni ng st ages Const ruct i on Cont ract si gned Si t e sel ect ed Owner i nt ent i on Count ry i nt ent i on 3

4 The energy problem? global or local? Demand Driven Developed vs developing world 10 fold increase needed in developing world US energy growing at 1% year only Europe energy growth is flat Development vs climate change Externalities and social cost Role of Nuclear 61 Newcomers learning from the past IAEA role Where and how will it really develop? 100 year commitment Govts? Companies?

5 GDP & ENERGY CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA Malaysia Source: Based on International Energy Agency (IEA) data

6 Proposed New Reactors Reactors planned and proposed Septem ber 2009 China (125) Russia (44) India (38) USA (30) South Africa (27) Ukraine (22) UAE (14) Japan (14) Vietnam (10) Italy (10) UK (8) South Korea (7) Canada (7) Thailand (6) Indonesia (6) Poland (5) Brazil (5) Pakistan (4) Kazakhstan (4) Belarus (4) Turkey (3) Sw itzerland (3) Romania (3) Iran (3) Mexico (2) Lithuania (2) Hungary (2) France (2) Egypt (2) Czech Rep (2) Bulgaria (2) Bangladesh (2) Argentina (2) Slovenia (1) Slovakia (1) North Korea (1) Israel (1) Finland (1) Armenia (1)

7 General Market Overvi ew Asi a is f ar ahead of Ameri ca and Europe wi t h regard to t he current new bui l d proj ect s Number of Uni t s Source: Proj ect Dat abase Number of Uni t s in Regi ons Count ry i nt ent i on Owner i nt ent i on Si t e sel ect ed Cont ract si gned Const ruct i on 160 Af ri ca Ameri ca Asi a Europe 7 Comment s Chart shows number of uni t s pl anned and const ruct ed in di f f erent regi ons i ncl udi ng st at us Asi a has by f ar t he most uni t s under const ruct i on as wel l as pl anned ( Russi a i ncl uded in Asi a) Europe and Ameri ca pret t y si mi l ar in t erms of new bui l ds under const ruct i on and pl anned Di f f erence bet ween Asi a and Europe/ Ameri ca if l ooki ng at net capaci t y i nst ead of uni t s is l ess but st i l l more t han t hree t i mes hi gher ( see dat abase)

8 General Market Overvi ew TYPE OF REACTOR SELECTED Number of Uni t s of rel evant React ors in Regi on Number of Uni t s Kerena BSEWR EPR PAWR AP 10 BAWR Source: Proj ect Dat abase Af ri ca Ameri ca Asi a Europe Comment s Chart shows number of uni t s f or rel evant react or t ypes in di f f erent regi ons f or whi ch deci si on has been made All ot her react ors t ypes ( e. g. CPR, VER have been excl uded) Asi a and Ameri ca have a si mi l ar amount of uni t s pl anned Lower number in Europe can be expl ai ned by t he f act t hat t he t echnol ogy deci si on has not been made f or most proj ect s 8

9 Country Global changes in Uranium usage by 2030 Uranium Usage - Current & ~2030 (Ref: FT Sept 2009) Additional Usage by onnes Current Usage US France Japan Russia Korea Germany UK China Ukraine Canada India S Africa

10 US Electricity situation ~1000 GWe Coal 50% 80,000 Water Gas NewCCAPACITY ADDITIONS 70,000 Renew Petro 60,000 Other 50,000 Nuclear Gas 40,000 Coal 30,000 20,000 10,

11 Electricity situation in India ~ 140 GWe Electricity costs commercial user 2 times that in China! Coal is King expensive to mine and transport and dirty Hydro is limited will Himalaya glaciers melt by 2040? Gas is limited and imports face political challenges Wind and solar can be important part of mix Nuclear has potential but many hurdles 10 fold increase needed! Money may not be limiting Innovation will drive future Solutions will be home grown

12 India Six nuclear power units under construction PHWR Kaiga Unit 4, Rajastan Units 5 & 6 VVER - Kudankulam 1 & 2 PFBR Kalpakkam 6 new sites in planning Kudankulam Nuclear Plant Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

13 China Fuqing Units 1 & 2-3 months ahead of schedule 20+ nuclear power units under construction Areva - EPR Westinghouse AP1000 China M310 (CNNC) China CNP1000 (CNNC) China CPR1000 (CGNPC) Atomstroyexport VVER-1000 Fuqing Nuclear Plant Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

14 Korea Six nuclear power units under construction OPR Units Shin Kori Units 1 & 2 and Shin Wolsong Units 1 & 2 APR Units Shin Kori Units 3 & 4 Wolsong Nuclear Plant Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

15 Japan Two nuclear power units under construction MHI Tomari Unit 3 - PWR Hitachi Shimane Unit 3 ABWR Russian Federation Nine nuclear power units under construction VVER1000 Rostov Unit 2 and Kalinin Unit 4 RBMK Kursk Unit 5 KLT-40S Vilyuchinsk 2 Units BN-800 FBR Beloyarsk Unit 4 VVER-1200 Novovoronezh II, Units1 & 2 and Leningrad II, Unit 1 Shimane Beloyarsk Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

16 The solution? global or local? Go EAST! What is the size of the investment needed 100 times $50 Billion! Payback times are measured in decades for main investors Energy security and diversity Demand driven Political issues Will the new countries take the technology lead? Manufacturing and design Future reactors like fast reactors Engineers and human resources

17 Summary and conclusions - International All solutions are needed Energy and water are big business In nuclear you are competing with other big boys awash in gas The big action is in China and India Can they make it happen? Should we do things differently in the US? When new suppliers join the market is it good or bad?

18 United States Perspective

19 G i g a w a t t s - e l e c t r i c The National Interest EIA AEO 2009 reference case has U.S. electricity demand expected to increase ~24% by 2030 Annual CO2 emissions projected to increase by 296 million metric tons to a total of 2,729 Nuclear generation is critical to: Reduce greenhouse gases Meet electricity demand Ensure energy supply security and grid reliability Stabilize energy prices Current nuclear plants retire between New nuclear build rate will not replace plant retirements Cost to replace the current fleet exceeds $600B Steep reduction in emission-free generation Existing reactors reduce burden of new clean electricity that will need to come online Projected Nuclear Power Generation Current reactors, 40 years Current reactors, 60 years New capacity being considered 4 Builds per year starting 2021 Generating capacity with 80-year life 2050

20 DOE Nuclear Power 2010 Based on Near-term Deployment Roadmap and other studies Focused on addressing regulatory, financial, and technical challenges Explore sites for new nuclear plants Demonstrate key untested regulatory processes Early Site Permit (ESP) Combined Construction and Operating Licenses (COL) Develop new light water reactor designs Design certification for new reactors Final design/first-of-a-kind engineering (FOAKE) for new, standardized nuclear plant design Goal was to provide sufficient detail for power companies to receive Public Utility Commission (PUC) approvals and sign Engineering, Procurement, and Construction (EPC) contracts with reactor vendors All NP2010 Awards provided as cooperative agreements with 50/50 Government/industry cost share Program Goal Pave the way for industry decisions to build new, advanced light water reactor nuclear plants in the United States.

21 Energy Policy Act of 2005 Financial Incentives Standby Support Delay Risk Insurance Covers cost of certain regulatory and litigation delays, up to $2 billion Available for first 6 new nuclear reactors Loan Guarantees Covers up to 80% of total project cost for up to 30 years Potentially reduces costs of new reactors Available for new nuclear reactors (up to $18.5 billion) and front-end fuel cycle facilities (up to $2 billion) Production Tax Credits Allows tax credits for electricity production from advanced nuclear power facilities for an 8-year period Allocates 1.8 /kwh with a maximum of $125 million per each 1,000 megawatts allocated per year National megawatt capacity limitation of 6,000 megawatts

22 Challenges for New Nuclear Construction Regulatory Risk Unproven new combined construction and operating license process has yet to be completed including ITAAC process However nuclear energy s prime competitor, coal generation, may now have greater regulatory risk than nuclear generation (i.e. carbon controls and backfitting), and Carbon Capture Systems are still largely unproven. Spent Fuel Disposal A national strategy for high-level waste disposal is still undecided. Construction Cost is the key challenge Natural gas generation and renewable energy sources are emerging as new clean energy competitors to nuclear Ultimately it is a business decision. Nuclear plant options must be competitive with coal, gas, and renewable generation and this won t be a static playing field over next several years.

23 Nuclear Regulatory Commission View New Reactor Applications Under Review [Aug 2008] 11 Combined License Applications Calvert Cliffs, South Texas, Bellefonte, North Anna, Lee, Harris, Grand Gulf, Vogtle, Summer, Callaway, and Levy County 3 Design Certification (DC) Applications General Electric Economic and Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) AREVA Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) Mitsubishi U.S. Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor (US APWR) 1 Amended DC Application Westinghouse AP1000 Certification Amendment 1 Early Site Permit/Limited Work Authorization Vogtle 23

24 Nuclear Regulatory Commission View New Reactor Applications [November 2009] 18 Combined License Applications 3 Design Certification (DC) Applications General Electric Economic and Simplified Boiling Water Reactor (ESBWR) AREVA Evolutionary Power Reactor (EPR) Mitsubishi U.S. Advanced Pressurized Water Reactor (US APWR) 2 Amended DC Applications Westinghouse AP1000 Certification Amendment ABWR Aircraft Impact Amendment (STP) 24 24

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27 One Issue,One Review,One Position DC Review Rulemaking COL -1 Reference Mandatory Hearing COL -2 Mandatory Hearing COL -3 Mandatory Hearing COL Mandatory Hearing

28 NRC GOALS From this point forward, the New Reactor Program goals are: I. By the end of FY2011, the NRC will have completed the review of Design Certifications, Limited Work Authorizations, and Combined Licenses needed for each of the new nuclear projects that are expected to start operating during CY2016-CY

29 NRC GOALS From this point forward, the New Reactor Program goals are: II. By the end of FY2011, the NRC will have developed the necessary construction inspection and support infrastructure (inspectors and training programs) and have under development additional support infrastructure ( license examination programs, simulators, etc.) to implement the construction inspection, operator licensing, and construction oversight programs needed for all of the new nuclear projects that are expected to load fuel during CY2016-CY

30 NRC GOALS From this point forward, the New Reactor Program goals are: III. By the end of FY2011, the NRC will have established an Advanced Reactor Organization capable of conducting the infrastructure development, pre-application review, Design Certification and COL review activities needed for the Congressionally mandated NGNP» and to address generic licensing infrastructure development applicable to additional reactor technologies as they develop. 30

31 NRC GOALS From this point forward, the New Reactor Program goals are: IV. Provided the above expectations can be met, the NRC will assign available resources to the review of Design Certifications, Early Site Permits, Limited Work Authorizations, and Combined Licenses that will be needed for the nuclear projects that are expected to undertake construction with the intent of operating during the CY2016-CY2020 time frame. 31

32 The consideration of future owner contract and control models reflect changes in the EPC marketplace occurring over time Booz & 32 Contract Type & Usage Risk Trade-Off Prior EPC Market Change in Type of Contract Mechanism Used Predominance of Lump Sum / Turnkey Projects Contractual Reallocation of Risk Towards Owner Current EPC Market Reported Current Distribution of Contract Mechanisms (%) Lump Sum / Turnkey 15% High Risk Premium EPC Manages Risk Fixed with Escalation 20% Hybrid Structures 50% Target Price with Incentives 5% Time and Materials 10% High Owner Control and Responsibility Observations: Contract Structure 65% of Observations owners reported and Implications that EPC contractors had become more risk averse Only 15% of owner projects discussed were LS-TK and these were agreements that they could not likely get if negotiated today Increased use of hybrid contract structures that decompose projects into smaller, less risky and better defined elements Increased use of targets with incentives to help align interests Increased focus on building win-win long-term relationships Source

33 The Characteristics of Successful New Nuclear Power Plant Projects Design complete Engaged utility management Regulatory framework understood Customer expectations Clear roles and responsibilities Attention to detail Fully integrated, resource-loaded, logic-tied schedule Better tools Proven processes Qualified and trained workforce Understandable and workable procedures Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

34 The Characteristics of Successful New Nuclear Power Plant Projects Training Engineering on site Site Master Plan Establishment of a Culture of Safety and Quality Communication Construction sequencing parallel, not series Open top construction Heavy lift cranes Modularization Automated welding Management visible Sl Invensys proprietary & confidential

35 Digital Controls for New Nuclear Plants Digital I&C has proven to improve operability and efficiencies of the plant Digital I&C last to be considered in initial license phase Unlike the analog plants digital plants are more complex requiring in depth review earlier in the design Modern technologies need to be applied allow for reduction in operational interruptions reduced surveillances, no calibrations, high level diagnostics advanced testing Lungmen Control Room

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37 Paper Reactors, Real Reactors Characteristics of an Academic Plant It is simple It is small It is cheap It is light It can be built very quickly It is very flexible in purpose. Very little development is required. It will use mostly off the shelf components. The reactor is in the study phase it is not being built now. Characteristics of a Practical Reactor Plant It is being built now. It is behind schedule. It is requiring an immense amount of development on apparently trivial items. Corrosion, in particular, is a problem. It is very expensive It takes a long time to build because of the engineering development problems. It is large It is heavy It is complicated (By Admiral Hyman Rickover, 1953)

38 Thanks! 22 st Annual Air Monitoring Users Group (AMUG) Meeting Ted Quinn, ANS Past President Vice President, Longenecker and Associates,