Methodological pitfalls in analysing TV audiences for sport

Transcription

1 Methdlgical pitfalls in analysing TV audiences fr sprt 8th Cnference f the Eurpean Sprts Ecnmics Assciatin Grningen, September 1, 2016 Prf. Dr. Daam Van Reeth KU Leuven, campus Brussel, Belgium (daam.vanreeth@kuleuven.be)

2 1. Intrductin Quiz: Hw many TV viewers wrldwide fr the final f the 2014 Wrld Cup Ftball? Hw many TV viewers wrldwide fr the tur de France? Hw many TV viewers wrldwide fr the pening ceremny f the Ri Games?

3 Can we believe the rganizers?

4 Prblem It is fairly easy t define the number f peple wh attend a sprts event that takes place within a clsed area (a hall, a stadium, a race track, ). Number f tickets sld Electrnic registratin Estimatin based n a visual cunt It is much harder t determine the number f viewers fr a sprts bradcast n televisin. Measurement prblem: hw t determine accurately the number f viewers fr a prgramme? Prblem in reprting: hw t cmmunicate in a reliable way the number f viewers fr a prgramme?

5 2. Hw are TV audiences measured? Althugh different systems are used arund the wrld, tday TV audiences are typically estimated based n infrmatin btained frm a carefully selected panel f representative husehlds. In every panel husehld, all TV viewing is mnitred autmatically by scalled Peplemeters, i.e. special metering equipment attached t the televisin sets. In rder t determine the number f viewers, residents and guests nly have t register their presence. The devices that gather the infrmatin are cnnected t a phne line r t the internet and uplad the infrmatin autmatically every night t a mnitring institutin, such as Nielsen in the United States, BARB in the United Kingdm r AGF in Germany. In mst cuntries the data are then released in the mrning as vernight r VOSDAL (viewing n same day as live) ratings. In sme cuntries, final r cnslidated data are released a week (+7) and/r a mnth (+28) after the bradcast date, t include delayed viewership. If such efficient measurement techniques are in place, why then is it s difficult t capture the real TV interest fr a sprts prgramme in a single figure?

6 Mst cmmn TV audience measures The average audience f a prgramme is the sum f each audience fr each minute during the prgramme, divided by the duratin f cverage in minutes. The average audience can be expressed as an audience size (number f peple), r as a percentage (frm a ppulatin). The peak audience f a prgramme is the highest audience recrded at any given mment during the prgramme. The reach f a prgramme is the number f persns that watched the prgramme fr a minimum f a stated number f cnsecutive minutes. The share f a prgramme is the audience fr the prgramme expressed as a percentage f the ttal viewing audience watching televisin at that mment.

7 Examples f utput

8 3. Pitfalls in analysing TV audiences fr sprt Pitfall 1: Peplemeters nly register resident (in-hme) viewing. Out-f-hme grup viewing in pubs and thrugh public viewing screens (e.g. in fan znes) is nt included Mre significant fr sprts prgrammes than fr ther TV prgrammes Prbably between 10 and 20% f in-hme audience. (FIFA cmmissined Ipss Marketing t analyse ut-f-hme viewing f the semi-finals and final f the 2014 Wrld Cup and they fund a 9.8% uplift f the in-hme audience. In the United States an ut-fhme audience f 20% was fund fr the Superbwl.) TV-viewers frm ther cuntries are nt included Can be significant in small cuntries with many freign TV channels r in neighburing cuntries with similar languages Fr instance: clse t 20% f all Dutch cycling fans watch prfessinal rad cycling n Flemish TV because f the prfessinal and well-infrmed race cmmentary. These viewers are neither included in the Belgian TV ratings nr in the Dutch TV ratings.

9 Pitfall 2: The difficulties f timeshift viewing and viewing n secnd screens. Technlgical develpments have made it much easier than befre t watch TV prgrammes at a later time. Less significant fr sprts prgrammes than fr ther TV prgrammes Data frm Finland and the Netherlands shw that timeshift viewing fr ftball games is marginal (1-2%). Technlgical develpments have made it pssible t watch TV prgrammes nline and n secnd screens Fr sprts prgrammes, peple at hme are expected t prefer high quality TV screen images abve lw quality small screen images. Online viewing des ffer extra viewing pprtunities thugh fr peple at wrk r peple travelling. Pineering research in the Netherlands n this type f viewing shws the impact is marginal: 42,000 nline viewers fr the Eur 2016 final versus 4,228,000 fr the regular TV bradcast, r 1%.

10 Pitfall 3: N unifrm standards fr reprting Different age limits are used fr the average audience: +3: Germany +4: Belgium, France +6: the Netherlands +12: Austria +16: U.K. The minimum number f cnsecutive minutes a persn has t watch a prgramme t be included in the reach measure differs frm cuntry t cuntry: 3 minutes: U.K. 5 minutes: the Netherlands 15 minutes: Belgium, France

11 Pitfall 4: The misinterpretatin f the average audience measure An average audience f 2 millin fr a 90 minute ftball game des nt mean 2 millin persns actually watched the game. The average audience nly tells us there were 180 millin minutes f viewing in ttal. It culd als imply that 4 millin peple each watched half f the game. Cnsequently, if 2 cnsecutive ftball games each have a 2 millin average audience, it s fair t say the games averaged 2 millin viewers per minute fr 3 hurs, r that the games had 360 millin minutes f viewing, r that 4 millin peple each watched half a game. Example: average viewership fr the pening ceremny f the Olympic Games Ri equalled 26,5 millin peple in the U.S. (-35% cmpared t the Lndn pening). A sharp drp ccurred after the entrance f the United States team in the Parade f Natins that came much earlier this time because the Prtuguese alphabet was used.

12 Pitfall 5: The misinterpretatin f the reach measure Usually, reprts d nt make a difference between grss reach and net reach. Grss reach, smetimes als called cumulative reach, is the sum f all audiences wh have watched a prgramme. But this is a trublesme measure since by ding s the same viewers are cunted multiple times. It implies that games that are split up in different prgrammes have an artificially higher reach than single prgramme games. Therefre, it is better t use net reach ( unique audience ), which is the sum f all audiences wh have watched a prgramme but excluding the duplicatin f viewership. Reach is highly dependent n the minimum number f cnsecutive minutes used fr determining the value f the measure. Therefre, this minimum time frame shuld always be included in the cmmunicatin n the audience reach. There is a relatinship between reach and average audience. The lnger the minimum number f cnsecutive minutes, the clser reach and average audience becme. Average audience divided by reach is the percentage f time f the prgramme the average viewer watched.

13 Pitfall 6: The misinterpretatin f the share measure Share is ften misunderstd as a relevant indicatr f TV ppularity fr a sprts prgramme. Hwever, since market shares are calculated n the basis f the ttal number f TV viewers at a certain mment, they are heavily affected by the airtime f a specific bradcast. The ttal number f viewers shws sme typical peaks and lws during the curse f the day and it is heavily affected by what is bradcast n all f the channels (e.g. children s prgrammes in the early evening). Fr instance: Because the FIFA Wrld Cup 2014 grup stage game Ivry Cast-Japan was bradcast at 3 a.m. at night in Eurpe it had a very small number f nighttime viewers. Hwever, since all the ther peple were asleep, the share f the game was extremely high. In Flanders, the Eur 2016 grup stage games played at 3 p.m. had abut the same amunt f viewers as the games played at 6 p.m. ( ). Hwever, since a lt f children are watching TV in the early evening, the market share was nly 24,5 fr the 6 p.m. games cmpared t 58,6 fr the 3 p.m. games.

14 Pitfall 7: Different prgramme lengths and split bradcasts An imprtant prblem with average audience data fllws frm the fact that it is heavily influenced by the bradcaster s chice f the length f the prgramme. This makes an internatinal cmparisn f TV audiences fr identical events always awkward. Example: ftball games Is the halftime break included r excluded frm the average audience? Is the preview and/r aftertalk included r excluded frm the average audience?

15 Pitfall 7: Different prgramme lengths and split bradcasts Example cycling races (1): If nly the last hur f the race had been bradcast, the average wuld have been clse t which is much mre than the nw reprted average audience f viewers. finish -4h finish -3h finish -2h last hur after Flanders VRT 1 lng bradcast n 1 channel Netherlands NPO 1 lng bradcast n 1 channel France France 3 France 2 France 3 3 bradcasts n 2 channels Italy Rai 3 Rai 3 Rai 3 6 bradcasts n 2 channels RaiSprt 1 RaiSprt 1 RaiSprt Spain Teledeprte La 1 Teledep. 3 bradcasts n 2 channels Example cycling races (2): Hw t cmpare average audiences fr these cuntries? (Stage 7 f 2016 Tur de France) Paradx: the shrter the bradcast, the higher the average audience ratings! Germany ARD 1 shrt bradcast n 1 channel

16 Pitfall 8: The prblem with specialty sprts channels TV ratings fr specialty sprts channels are usually harder t find: In sme cuntries (e.g. France), specialty channels are nt bliged t release TV ratings data, in cntrast t generalistic channels. When specialty channels d cmmunicate, they usually talk abut ptential reach, the number f subscriptins r an ccasinal succesful bradcast TV ratings fr specialty channels are usually relatively lw cmpared t generalistic channels. As a result, their prgrammes dn t shw up in lists with ppular prgrammes. Frm my persnal experience I have learned specialty channels are nt willing t share their TV ratings with researchers. Frm the scarce infrmatin that is available, it is clear that TV ratings fr sprts events n specialty sprts channels are generally lw: Netherlands (Eursprt, free): Classics cycling races viewers versus t n the public channel France (bein, pay): 1,5 millin viewers fr final f Eur 2016 (half f their subscribers) versus 21 millin n public channel Ptential paradx: the mre mney rganizers (try t) make frm selling TV-rights, the less peple are able t see the sprt, endangering the lng term interest in the sprt.

17 4. CASE: the real audience f the Tur de France On its website, Tur rganizer ASO claims 5 billin TV viewers fr ASO events in 190 cuntries.

18 Screensht frm the Tur de France Grand Départ website A wrldwide televisin audience f 3,5 billin peple watch the Tur de France annually. (

19 Screensht frm the website f ne f the main spnsrs f the Tur de France At the Tur de France in 2013 alne, arund 12 millin cycling fans cheered alng the rute, jined by 1,4 billin televisin viewers arund the wrld. (

20 Extract frm an ffical (unpublished) REPUCOM TV reprt The Tur de France accumulated mre than half f the ttal cycling audience n TV (1.981,88 millin)

21 Extract frm an ffical (unpublished) REPUCOM TV reprt Audience (millin) % f ttal audience Live ( prgrammes that cntain live game actin f an event r game ) 309,36 15,6% Sprts ( includes all sprts items airing regularly r irregularly. Sprts prgrammes usually fcus n a certain game r event, e.g. special prgrams featuring certain cmpetitins ) Sprts magazine ( bradcast summaries f different sprts, events r games. They are mstly shwn regularly (daily, weekly) and generally feature n live actin ) News ( includes all sprts items bradcast within prgrammes cvering news ) 225,43 11,4% 265,67 13,4% 1181,42 59,6%

22 Summary fr the Tur de France ASO claims 3,5 t 5 billin viewers Repucm measures a glbal TV audience f almst 1,9 billin viewers (in 15 majr TV markets fr cycling) The live audience is nly 15%, s just ver 300 millin viewers The live per stage average thus is nly abut 15 millin viewers (= 0,5% f the 3 billin ASO claims!) This number crrespnds very well with my persnal bservatins carried ut ver the perid and my claim that WORLDWIDE the Tur de France has a regular TV audience f 20 t 25 millin viewers.

23 Best practices example (Taken frm the Gir d Italia radbk)

24 5. CASE: the real audience f the 2014 FIFA Wrld Cup final On its website, FIFA claims ne billin TV viewers watched the final. Newspaper article frm 2008!

25 Infrmatin frm the FIFA Wrld Cup Brazil Televisin Audience Reprt There is sme ambiguity in cmmunicatin by FIFA: FIFA website: 3.2 billin reach, 1 billin watch final Wrld Cup 2014 FIFA Wrld Cup Brazil Televisin Audience Reprt: best practices example with a great amunt f detailed infrmatin FIFA Wrld Cup Final Audience (millin) Change Remaining In hme + ut f hme reach 1013,0 In hme 1+ minute reach 913,7-9,8% 90,2 In hme 3+ minute reach 840,8-7,2% 83,0 In hme 20+ minute reach 695,0-14,4% 68,6 In hme 30+ minute reach 631,9-6,2% 62,4 Match audience 570,1-6,1% 56,3 Reliable number because the TV audiences I have cllected first-hand crrespnd very well with the numbers mentined here fr cuntries like Germany, France, US,... Perhaps still a small verestimatin fr cuntries where extraplatin and diary methds are used.

26 6. Cnclusin T many stakehlders it is relevant t knw the TV ppularity f a sprts event: event rganizers (success f their event, ), spnsrs (evaluatin f spnsrship efficiency, ), TV channels (evaluatin price f TV-rights, evidence fr rates fr cmmercials, ), gvernments (evaluatin f subsidies, ). All these stakehlders deserve clear infrmatin n the real TV audience fr the events they rganize / finance / supprt / bradcast / and shuld nt be mislead by virtual r unrealistically inflated cumulative audience figures. Therefre, there is an urgent need fr unifrm standards in reprts n TV audiences (same age grups, same definitins f reach, share, ). Academic researchers shuld be very careful when using data n TV audiences, especially when cmparing cuntries r sprt events.