Updating the Gas Target Model

Transcription

1 Dr. Boris Kozlowski PGNiG Sales & Trading GmbH 13th March 2014 Brussels 1

2 Agenda Presentation of the company Main business focus based on traded gas markets Limiting factors for fulfilling our business opportunities What we need 2

3 Presentation of the company 1. History: 21st December 2010 establishment of the company, 2011 preparation for the launch of operational activities 1st January 2012 official begin of operational activity. 2. Current status: PST is currently active in the following markets: Germany: gas and power activities on the wholesale markets(exchange and OTC trading), sales activities, The Netherlands: gas activities on the wholesale market(exchange and OTC trading), The Czech Republic: readiness for activities on the gas wholesale market(otc trading) PST Branch, Austria: readiness for activities on the gas wholesale market(otc trading), sales of gas to end customers since December 2013, Cooperation with PGNIG group: Marketing of gas from Skarv deposit on the wholesale market(germany, the Netherlands) Joint Trading Desk: procurement for Polish gas market 3

4 Main business focus based on traded gas markets Procurement for the Polish gas market Gasdelivery forslp&rlmcustomers,activein followingmarketsin Germany Netherlands Czech Republic Austria Marketing of gas from Skarv (gas production field) on the wholesale market 4

5 Limiting factors for fulfilling our business opportunities I Axes: Y-axis (ordinate) : MW (or MWh/h) X-axis (abscissa): Maturity in calendar days (from trading day until delivery start of the specific product) First indications (OTC forwards regarding aggregated order volumes) Steeply sloping development of liquidity in quarter-products with a liquid time frame ~ 3-4 months ahead. Sloping and slightly cyclical development of season s liquidity (keep in mind, term season contains both summer and winter) with a liquid time window ~12-17 months ahead. Moderately sloping development of calendar year s liquidity with spikes ~1 and ~2 years ahead (additional hedging activity at turn of the year?). 5

6 Limiting factors for fulfilling our business opportunities II Axes: Y-axis (ordinate) : bid-ask-spread /MWh X-axis (abscissa): Maturity in calendar days (from trading day until delivery start of the specific product) First indications (OTC forwards regarding bid-ask-spreads) Bid-ask-spread indicates the liquidity of traded products but is also affected by other factors like banking holidays, current market nervousness etc. The analyzed spreads in relation to its specific remaining time to maturity show a comparable situation of liquidity: ca. 3 months ahead for quarters, ca. 14 months ahead for seasons and ca. 2 years ahead for calendar years. A bid-ask-spread of 0,20 /MWh seems to be a suitable indicator for liquidity. 6

7 Limiting factors for fulfilling our business opportunities III The market depth for Continental Europe follows a typical pattern during the trading day with increasing liquidity from around 10 a.m. until 4 p.m. CET (exceptions: extraordinary global events, banking holidays in UK,NL or D) 7

8 What we need More transparency especially in smaller markets (for example GPL) Stronger market coupling Easier access to the markets; more counterparts trading in physical and financial contracts (incl. banks); the same rules for all (level playing field) More liquidity for forward products and an arbitrage free market (market is not efficient ; example Seasons vs. Cal products) Introduction of EU-Futures with delivery possibilities in Germany, Austria, and Netherlands for the start 8

9 Thank you for your attention!!! 9