10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS

Transcription

1 10th ANIVERSARY SULAMERICA INVESTIMENTOS

2 AGENDA 1. Perú Macro Environment 2. The need for a Pension System Reform 3. The Private Pension System 4. AFP Integra 5. Multifondos 6. The Future 1

3 1. Peru - Macro Environment

4 1. Perú - Macroeconomic Environment Market Demographics Population: 27.9 million GDP: $ 81.8 billion GDP/Capita: $ 2,900 Perú Businesses AFP INTEGRA Pension 31.8% leading market share ING FONDOS Mutual Fund - 2% market share IN VITA Life (minority stake 33.7%) Customer Information Affiliates: 955,000 AUM: $ 4.0 billion Employee Information Office staff (FTE) 277 Field staff (FTE) 874 3

5 1. Perú - Macroeconomic Environment GDP Real Growth (2) Perú GDP Real Growth China Peru World USA 21.1% 20.4% 14.4% 51.2% 6% 4% 4.9% 4.0% 6.2% 4.8% 4.9% Latin America 12.9% UK 12.6% 2% Euro Zone 6.8% Japan 4.8% 0% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0.2% * Source: FMI Source: BCR Exports (US$ millions) Fiscal Balance as % of GDP 15,000 12,000 9,000 6,000 3, * Source: BCR (*) Proyected 6,955 Exports have doubled in the last five years. 7,026 7,714 9,091 12,617 17,000 16, % 0.00% -0.5% -0.40% -1.0% -1.10% -1.5% -2.0% -1.70% -2.5% -2.40% -2.30% -3.0% -3.5% -3.40% -4.0% Source: BCR 4

6 Inflation & Devaluation (12 month % change) Source: BCR Urban Unemployment Rate Source:Macroconsult 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Country Risk EMBI L.A. Source: Bloomberg International Net Reserves US$ Billions Source: BCR * 5 Inflation Ene-01 Jul-01 Ene-02 Jul-02 Ene-03 Jul-03 Ene-04 Jul-04 Ene-05 Jul-05 Exchage Rate (S/. / US$) Ene Perú - Macroeconomic Environment Exchange Rate Inflation As % of Active Laborforce 14% 12% 11.7% 11.2% 10.7% 11.0% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% , , , Jan-01 Feb-01 Apr-01 Jun-01 Aug-01 Sep-01 Nov -01 Jan-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 Jun-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Nov -02 Jan-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 Jun-03 Aug-03 Oct-03 Nov -03 Jan-04 Mar-04 May-04 Jul-04 Sep-04 Nov -04 Dec-04 EMBI Perú at Investment Grade levels. EMBI Peru

7 , The Need for a Pension System Reform

8 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Need for a Private Pension Reform 1. Fertility Rate & Life Expectancy 2. Political and Economic Factors 7

9 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Fertility rate Fertilidad - Mundo ,0 3, , Africa Asia Europa Latino América y Caribe Fuente: División de Población, Naciones Unidas Norte América Oceanía 8

10 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform 8 Fertility rate 7 6 Number of sons ARG BOL COL C R CHI EL SAL MEX PER R DOM URU Source: FIAP

11 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Life Expectancy $ $ $ Mundo % % %! " # Fuente: División de Población, Naciones Unidas 10

12 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Life Expectancy Age ARG BOL COL C R CHI EL SAL MEX PER R DOM URU Source: FIAP

13 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform 25 Rate of Old Age Dependency % ARG BOL COL C R CHI EL SAL MEX PER R DOM URU Source: FIAP

14 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Social Security Debt (PV of the accrued rights of pensioners & workers, under old system) P. Menos Desarr. 33% Italia 120% Alemania 40% Francia 55% USA 30% Canadá 80% Fuente Banco Mundial Porcentaje del PBI 13

15 2. The Need for a Pension System Reform Social Security Debt (PV of the accrued rights of pensioners & workers, under old system) URU PER MEX EL SAL CHI COL BOL ARG % of GDP Source: World Bank Implicit pension debt, transition cost, options, and impact of China's pension reform : a computable general equilibrium analysis, Volume 1 14

16 2. The Need for a Private Pension Reform The Peruvian National Pension System System technically broke. Increasing obligations not self-financed. In 2004, the transfers from the Public Treasury to the NPS represented: 95% of Public Investment. 20% of Tax Income of the Central Government. 14% of Public Budget. 3% of GDP. Inequality between the and regimes, as well as in the treatment of beneficiaries. At PV, the Government faces unfunded pension costs of US$ MM: 65% del GDP. 1.8 times the stock of External Debt. Fuente: MEF, Plan de Acción de los Sistemas de Pensiones en Perú

17 3. The Private Pension System

18 3. The Private Pension System Private Pension System s launchings around the World Chile 1981 Argentina & Colombia 1994 México & Bolivia 1997 Polonia 1999 Bulgaria 2002 El Salvador Perú Uruguay & Kazajstán Costa Rica Rep Dominicana Source: FIAP (members) 17

19 3. The Private Pension System Savings and Individual Capitalization Regime Contributions are placed in individuals accounts of worker s property. Founds are administrated by specialized entities. Equity division between AUM and administrator entity. Workers are free to affiliate and transfer to Pension Administrator of choice. Different retirement modalities. Strict State supervision. 18

20 3. The Private Pension System Impacts of the Pension Reform Benefits for the Economy: Public Finance Capital Markets Savings Benefits for the affiliates Pensions Higher pensions Different options for retirement Minimum pension Early retirement pensions D & S Insurance 19

21 3. The Private Pension System Impacts of the Pension Reform: Benefits for the Economy Public Finance Reduction of fiscal burden PPS implies a Structural change in Economy with a positive long term effect Capital Markets Greater movement of savings Better allocation of resources (New Funds available for investments) Growth and strength in the financial sector (new financial institutions & instruments) Increase in Investment Economic Growth 20

22 3. The Private Pension System Impacts of the Pension Reform: Benefits for the Economy Savings Obligatory contribution increase nation s savings Lower uncertainty about pension s payments Virtual circle between Savings & Investment 21

23 3. The Private Pension System Impacts of the Pension Reform: Benefits for the affiliates Pensions Higher pensions Different options for retirement Annuities One time payment Program retirement Deferred payment Minimum pension Early retirement pensions D & S Insurance 22

24 3. The Private Pension System &'( ) ** + 180, , , , ,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000,-. Renta Vitalicia (pension) Aportes Rentabilidad enero febrero Marzo Abril Mayo Junio Julio /*(* Agosto Setiembre Octubre /) 23

25 3. The Private Pension System Circular flow of internal savings and investment PENSION FUND INVESTMENT GROWTH EMPLOYMENT INTERNAL SAVINGS ECONOMIC GROWTH ECONOMIS & SOCIAL WEALTH 24

26 3. The Private Pension System Affiliattes Evolution Miles de Afiliados 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, % % 1, % 1, % 1, % 1, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 2, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 3, % 4,

27 3. The Private Pension System AUM Evolution Millones de US$ % % % 63.3% % % % 14.4% % % 20.4% % % % 16.3%

28 3. The Private Pension System PPS & Internal Savings 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1, % 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% FONDO (MILLONES $) FONDO/AHORRO INTERNO!"#$"$%$"&%' In 2004, AUM represents the 60% of the Internal savings. 27

29 3. The Private Pension System AUM & GDP 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, % 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% FONDO (MILLONES $) FONDO/PBI!"#$"$%$"&%' 28

30 4. AFP Integra

31 4. AFP Integra Initial years of AFP Integra (founded in June 1993) First challenges: Founders of an industry All competitors started at the same time (from zero). Lack of credibility. Unknown System. Undevoloped Capital Market. 30

32 4. AFP Integra AFP Integra - Today Leadership Funds: Market leaders in the 13 years since the industry creation. - More than USD 4,000 MM in AUM % market share Return: Market Leaders - Higher Cumulative Return since the beginning of the System. - Nominal: 15.43% (annualized) - Real: 9.22% (annualized) - First place in 12 of the 13 official return rankings. 31

33 4. AFP Integra Brand Positioning - Integra Brand recognized as one of the strongest in the market (30-35% of top of mind). Affiliates: - More than 970,000 affiliates % market share. Only AFP that exports know-how: Mexico, Colombia, Brazil, Argentina and Dominican Republic. 32

34 4. AFP Integra Annualized Return Rankings (August 2006) 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years 5 years 6 years years 8 years 9 years 10 years 11 years 12 years 13 years

35 5. Multifondos

36 5. Multifondos Structure of Multifondos PROFILE OF EACH FUND S PORTFOLIO 100% 80% 30% BY ASSET CLASS 20% 5% 15% 60% 40% 40% 60% 80% 20% 0% 10% 40% Fondo Tipo I Fondo Tipo II Fondo Tipo III RV RF CP RV = Equity RF = Fixed Income CP = Short Term Instruments 35

37 5. Multifondos 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% 36 Dic-05 YTD Return Ene-06 Feb-06 Mar-06 Abr-06 May-06 Jun-06 Jul-06 Ago-06 Sep-06 F1 F2 F3

38 6. The Future

39 6. The Future Create a Pensionary Culture Increase information to affiliates: - Benefits of the PPS - Generate consciousness that the PPS generates higher returns Multifondos Flexibility in Foreign Investment Limit 38

40 6. The Future Increase coverage of the System: - Increase effectiveness of collection: - Collection methods - Consciousness -Structural Problem - Percentage of workers in the System - Informality - Unemployment Promote voluntary contributions - Tax Benefits 39

41 2006 () *+$,-# $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 $6,000 $4,000 $2,000 $0 Fuente: BCRP.GOB.PE The Future AFP total stock -$./0)

42 6. The Future PPS Investment in Debt as a Percentage of Debt Stock 50% 47.0% 45% 43.4% 40% 36.2% 39.7% 36.2% 40.0% 40.2% 39.6% 35% 30% 30.5% 25% 20% 18.9% 15% ' !"#$"$%$"& 1%)2) 41

43 6. The Future # + *+ ' 3% 342+,& 94 : 3$4#% 3;#:;5 3<94: 3:,+)! 3"25 3< < 3% 3"2) &7 38) 3++! 3, 3" 3 # 42