PASTA IN EUROPE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR MANUFACTURERS

Transcription

1 PASTA IN EUROPE: OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES FOR MANUFACTURERS UNAFPA/SEMOULIERS AND IPO BOARD MEETING 23 MAY LYON ILDIKO SZALAI SENIOR ANALYST

2 EUROMONITOR INTERNATIONAL About Euromonitor International Global provider of Strategic Market Intelligence 12 Regional offices analysts in 80 countries Cross-country comparable data and analysis Consumer focused industries, countries and consumers 5-10 year forecasts with matching trend analysis All retail channels covered Subscription services, reports and consulting London Chicago Singapore Shanghai Dubai Vilnius Cape Town San7ago Tokyo Sydney Bangalore Sao Paulo 2

3 MARKET ENVIRONMENT ADDING VALUE TO PASTA LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE KEY TAKEAWAYS

4 MARKET ENVIRONMENT 2014 Expected to Be Turning Point in Real GDP Growth Globally 4 World: % Real GDP Growth % 3.2% 3.0% 3.6%

5 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Modest Recovery Expected in GDP Growth in Europe by % Year on Year Real GDP Growth by Region % y-o-y growth Asia Pacific Australasia Eastern Europe Latin America Middle East and Africa North America Western Europe

6 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Pasta Volume Growth Remain Slower & Lower than Overall Food 6 World: Retail Volume Sales of Packaged Food Versus Pasta % y-o-y growth Packaged Food Pasta

7 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Underwhelming Growth in Western Europe 7 % y-o-y growth Pasta: Retail Volume Sales Growth Eastern and Western Europe Eastern Europe Western Europe World

8 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Value Growth Outpace Volume in Global Pasta 8 US$ bn rsp Global Pasta Market Size by Category Value Dried Pasta Chilled/Fresh Pasta Canned/Preserved Pasta 5.8% CAGR '000 tonnes 20,000 10,000 0 Global Pasta Market Size by Category Volume Dried Pasta Chilled/Fresh Pasta Canned/Preserved Pasta 1.4% CAGR

9 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Europe Contributes Little to Global Pasta Value Growth up to Global Pasta Retail Value: US$27.9 billion 2018 Global Pasta Retail Value: US$31.3 billion Absolute Market Value Growth by Region ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Middle East and Africa Latin America Eastern Europe Asia Pacific North America Australasia Western Europe

10 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Only Two European Markets Ranks in Global Top US$ mn rsp Pasta: Top 10 Markets Absolute Market Value Growth % CAGR Absolute Market Value Growth (US$ mn rsp) % CAGR

11 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Top Growth Markets in Europe United Kingdom 0.9% Belarus 3.9% Germany 2.2% Austria 3.7% Ukraine 3.3% % CAGR , retail value terms, 2013 fixed exchange rate, US$ million Serbia 2.7%

12 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Still Dried Pasta Generates Most of European Growth 12 Absolute Market Value Growth US$ mn rsp Top 10 European Pasta Markets Growth Prospect by Category Germany Russia UK Austria Norway Ukraine Poland Belarus Serbia Portugal Canned/Preserved Pasta Chilled/Fresh Pasta Dried Pasta

13 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Market Value Contraction in European Markets Five European Markets Negative Growth Prospects US$ mn rsp Italy Spain Switzerland Romania France Absolute Market Value Growth (US$ mn rsp)

14 MARKET ENVIRONMENT Moderately Consolidated but Private Label Dominated Europe 14 Axis Title 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Western Europe Pasta Competitive Landscape Top 10 Companies Private Label Others Axis Title 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Eastern Europe Pasta Competitive Landscape Top 10 Companies Private Label Others

15 STILL UNSTABLE MARKET ENVIRONMENT ADDING VALUE TO PASTA LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE KEY TAKEAWAYS

16 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Pasta Opportunities in the Gloomy Economy 16 Convenience Big Night- In Health Credentials

17 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Time Scarcity Drives Need for Convenient Shopping Western Europe: Pasta Distribution Channel Breakdown 2008/2013 Supermarkets % sales Hypermarkets Discounters Independent Small Grocers Smaller outlets lose share % sales Eastern Europe: Pasta Distribution Channel Breakdown 2008/ Supermarkets Hypermarkets Discounters Independent Small Grocers Supermarkets/ hypermarkets stand up to discounters

18 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Pasta Meals: Convenient Cooking - Preparation 18 Pasta dish promotions Cooking time promoted front of package Single portion on-the-go consumption

19 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Premium Price of Healthy Pasta Offers Dynamic Growth but on Small Scale 19 % y-o-y growth Western Europe: Pasta Growth Performance by HW Category Gluten-Free Pasta NH High Fibre Pasta Organic Pasta Pasta Western Europe: Pasta Retail Value Sales by Category ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 10,000 Gluten-Free Pasta NH High Fibre Pasta Organic Pasta "Standard" Pasta

20 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Dried Pasta Eating into Share of Foodservice 20 US$ billion Western Europe: Total Retail Value Sales through Full-Service Restaurants % of total chilled ready meals % Italian Chilled Ready Meal Austria Germany Challenging economy underpins home cooking trend Italian cuisine grows in popularity

21 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Chilled Formats Thrive on Quality and Price in Germany 21 Natural ingredients Variety of vegetable fillings No preservatives Euro / 400 g pack Variety of Retail Formats Dried vs Chilled/Fresh Pasta Unit Prices through Supermarket vs Discounter Germany Austria Germany Austria Dried Pasta Supermarket Discounter Chilled/Fresh Pasta

22 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Dried pasta outperformed chilled/fresh formats in the UK 22 Benefits from television cooking New shapes, even for children Dried formats are the real Italian style Wholegrain and organic lines tap into health trend Price Dried Pasta Big night in occasions

23 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Strongest Western European Growth for Pasta - the Austrian Way 23 Austrian brands dominate Pasta for less than 1 per kg Innovation targets food intolerance consumer group Nostalgia in packaging

24 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Increased Travel to Italy Inspires Eastern European Pasta Sales 24 1,500 Tourism Arrivals from Eastern Europe in Italy trips 1, Arrivals from Poland Arrivals from Russia Travelling to Italy is expected to increase significantly because of safety concerns in competitor markets like Egypt and Tunisia. Italian-travelled consumers in Eastern Europe are more receptive to pasta offerings than the rest of the population.

25 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Russia: Pasta Dynamically Growing Source of Carbohydrate tonnes 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2, ,000-4,000-6,000-8,000 Pasta Versus Rice and Potato in Russia. Retail Volume Growth Potatoes Pasta Rice Total Volume, 2013 % CAGR % CAGR

26 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Eastern Europe: Expansion In Independent Groceries a challenge 26 % of pasta sales through Independent Small Grocers Pasta Sales Through Independent Small Grocers Russia Hungary Poland Consumers continue to be quite price sensitive and trade down to side dish staples during periods of economic duress Low, competitive price at independent groceries is necessary

27 ADDING VALUE TO PASTA Europe: Producers Target Wider Consumer Range 27 The health conscious Wholemeal, free-from, organic, fortified The price conscious Diverse distribution channel Pasta for less than 1 per kg The time conscious Promote short cooking time/easy pasta recipes The taste conscious Continuous expansion of premium fresh pasta offerings, e.g lamb-filled wine flavoured chilled pasta

28 STILL UNSTABLE MARKET ENVIRONMENT ADDING VALUE TO PASTA LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE KEY TAKEAWAYS

29 LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE Middle East and Africa & Latin America Drive Global Growth 29 Absolute Market Value Growth by Region 2013/ US$ mn rsp ,825.1 Latin America Middle East and Africa Europe Others

30 LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE Versatility and Adaptability the Key to Success 30 Latin America Proven specially popular among less affluent consumers. Middle East & Africa Adoptable to a variety of traditional cuisine with sauces and fillings Mexico Pasta Beyond Europe Versatility is a key driver of sales in the Mexican market. Iran Diversification of products on store shelves & withdrawal of bread subsidies

31 STILL UNSTABLE MARKET ENVIRONMENT ADDING VALUE TO PASTA LESSONS FROM BEYOND EUROPE KEY TAKEAWAYS

32 KEY TAKEAWAYS Winning Strategies in Europe 32 Western Europe: Largest Potential in Premium formats Eastern Europe: Strike Balance between Quality and Price Tailor and market offering to wide range of consumer segments Retail Expansion is Key for Reaching New Consumers

33 THANK YOU FOR LISTENING Ildikó Szalai Senior Analyst Euromonitor International (0) EXT 2406