WORLD CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK A New Approach to Upstream and Downstream Drivers of Crude Oil Markets

Transcription

1 WORLD CRUDE OIL OUTLOOK A New Approach to Upstream and Downstream Drivers of Crude Oil Markets November 2009 Published by: A division of

2 AUTHOR: TURNER, MASON & COMPANY CHAIRMAN: Malcolm Turner PRESIDENT: Michael W. Leger WORLD CRUDE OUTLOOK TEAM LEADER: John R. Auers PRINCIPAL AUTHORS: John R. Auers and John M. Mayes About Turner, Mason & Company Turner, Mason provides engineering and management consulting services for the petroleum and petrochemical industries. Founded in 1971, the firm serves a wide variety of clients worldwide, including petroleum refining and marketing companies, oil producers and industry associations, as well as legal, investment and government institutions. Turner, Mason is headquartered in Dallas, Texas. For more information, contact: 2100 Ross Avenue, Suite 2920 Dallas, Texas Tel: (1) CHAIRMAN: Raja W. Sidawi VICE CHAIRMAN: Marcel van Poecke PRESIDENT: Thomas E. Wallin EDITOR: Niamh Kenny PRODUCTION MANGER /D ESIGN : Terry King COVER DESIGN : Agnes Lukasiak C O P Y E D I T O R S : Chris Raine, Matt Zeidel Energy Intelligence PUBLICATIONS: Petroleum Intelligence Weekly, Energy Compass, Energy Intelligence Briefing, International Oil Daily, Energy Intelligence Finance, Jet Fuel Intelligence, LNG Intelligence, Natural Gas Week, Nefte Compass, Oil Daily, Oil Market Intelligence, Uranium Intelligence Weekly and World Gas Intelligence. H E A D O F F I C E : 5 East 37 th Street 5 th floor New York, NY Tel.: (1) Fax: (1) W E B S I T E : Photocopying or reproduction in any form is strictly limited to licensed usage terms. MMIX Energy Intelligence Group, Inc. and Turner, Mason & Company. Copyright Copyright 2009 Energy Intelligence Group and Turner, Mason & Company. Unauthorized copying of the World Crude Oil Outlook is prohibited by US copyright law and international law. For additional copies or expanded access, please contact the Circulation Department at EIG s New York office, Tel: (1) , Fax: (1) ; customerservice@energyintel.com.

3 Contents Introduction Executive Summary Section 1: The World Crude Oil Outlook Chapter 1: Background Chapter 2: Current Worldwide Reserves and Production Crude Oil Reserves Crude Oil Production Crude Oil Movements Chapter 3: World Crude Oil Production Forecast World Summary Regional Summaries North America US Mexico Canada Central/South America Brazil Venezuela Other Central/South America Europe Norway United Kingdom Other Europe Middle East Iran Iraq Saudi Arabia Other Middle East Former Soviet Union Russia Other FSU Africa Nigeria Angola Other Africa Asia-Pacific China Other Asia-Pacific Crude Types Light Sweet Crude Light Sour Crude Medium Crude Heavy Crude World Spare Production Capacity Chapter 4: Refinery Capacity Expansions Chapter 5: World Crude Oil Balance Chapter 6: Conclusions Section 2: Appendix

4 Tables and Figures Executive Summary Figure 1.1 World Crude Oil Reserves, 2008, by Region and Type Figure 1.2 Years of Production Remaining Figure 1.3 World Crude Oil Production, Figure 1.4 Change in World Crude Oil Production, Figure 1.5 World Crude Oil Refinery Runs, Figure 1.6 Change in World Refining Capacity, Figure 1.7 Worldwide Refinery Capacity Surplus (over 2008 levels) Figure 1.8 Maya Discount to WTI Section 1: The World Crude Oil Outlook Chapter 2: Current Worldwide Reserves and Production Figure 2.1 World Crude Oil Reserves, Figure 2.2 World Oil Reserves by Crude Type, Figure 2.3 Major Undiscovered Recoverable Oil Reserves Figure 2.4 World Crude Oil Production by Location, Figure 2.5 World Crude Oil Production by Crude Type, Table 2.1 Oil Reserves of Top Eight Countries, Table 2.2 Oil Production of Top Eight Countries, Table 2.3 World Crude Oil Refinery Runs, Table 2.4 Net Crude Imports (Exports), Chapter 3: World Crude Oil Production Forecast Figure 3.1 Total Crude Production by Type Figure 3.2 Change in Share of World Crude Production, Figure 3.3 Crude Production by Grade, North America Figure 3.4 Mexican Crude Oil Production Figure 3.5 Projected Mexican Crude Oil Production Figure 3.6 Crude Production by Grade, Central/South America Figure 3.7 Projected Venezuelan Crude Oil Production Figure 3.8 Crude Production by Grade, Europe Figure 3.9 Crude Production by Grade, Middle East Figure 3.10 Historical and Projected Iraqi Crude Oil Production Figure 3.11 Crude Production by Grade, FSU Figure 3.12 Historical and Projected Russian Crude Oil Production Figure 3.13 Crude Production by Grade, Africa Figure 3.14 Crude Production by Grade, Asia-Pacific Figure 3.15 Forecast Increase in Crude Production by Type, Figure 3.16 Increase in Crude Production by Hemisphere, Figure 3.17 World Light Sweet Crude Production Figure 3.18 World Light Sour Crude Production Figure 3.19 World Medium Crude Production Figure 3.20 World Heavy Crude Production Figure 3.21 World Spare Production Capacity

5 Tables and Figures Chapter 3: World Crude Oil Production Forecast (cont.) Table 3.1 Crude Price Summary Table 3.2 World Crude Oil Production Table 3.3 Crude Oil Production, North America Table 3.4 Crude Oil Production, Central/South America Table 3.5 Crude Oil Production, Europe Table 3.6 Crude Oil Production, Middle East Table 3.7 Crude Oil Production, FSU Table 3.8 Incremental Russian Crude Oil Production Table 3.9 Crude Oil Production, Africa Table 3.10 Crude Oil Production, Asia-Pacific Table 3.11 World Light Sweet Crude Oil Production Table 3.12 World Light Sour Crude Oil Production Table 3.13 World Medium Crude Oil Production Table 3.14 Major New Heavy Crude Fields Table 3.15 Western Hemisphere Heavy Crude Production Table 3.16 Eastern Hemisphere Heavy Crude Production Chapter 4: Refinery Capacity Expansions Figure 4.1 World Announced Refining Capacity Expansions, , by Type Figure 4.2 World Announced Refining Capacity Expansions, , by Region Figure 4.3 Refinery Capacity Expansion, , Light Sweet and Light Sour Figure 4.4 Refinery Capacity Expansion, , Medium and Heavy Table 4.1 Selected Major Projects Through Table 4.2 Selected Major Projects From Table 4.3 Refinery Crude Capacity Changes in Chapter 5: World Crude Oil Balance Figure 5.1 Cumulative Refinery Capacity Surplus (over 2008 levels) Table 5.1 Change in Total World Crude Oil Balance, Chapter 6: Conclusions Figure 6.1 Years of Production Remaining Figure 6.2 Maya Discount to WTI Figure 6.3 Heavy Crude Processing Capacity Surplus, ( 000 b/d) Figure 6.4 Incremental Heavy Crude Production, ( 000 b/d)

6 Tables and Figures Section 2: Appendix Table 1-1 Recoverable/World Crude Oil Reserves Table 1-2 Major Crude Grades By Country Table 1-3 World Crude Oil Production, Table 1-4 Opec Crude Oil Production, Table 1-5 Regional Net Imports (Exports), Table 1-6 Regional Crude Oil Runs, Table 2-1 World Crude Production Forecast, Table 2-2 World Natural Gas Liquids Production Forecast, Table 2-3 World Total Liquids (Crude and NGL) Production Forecast, Table 2-4 World Crude Oil Production by Grade, Table 2-5 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-6 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-7 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-8 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-9 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-10 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-11 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-12 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-13 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-14 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-15 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-16 World Crude Oil Production, Table 2-17 Regional Crude Oil Production Growth (Decline) Table 2-18 Selected New Crude Oil Field Production Table 3-1 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-2 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-3 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-4 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-5 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-6 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-7 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-8 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-9 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-10 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-11 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-12 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 3-13 Worldwide Crude Oil Supply-Demand Analysis, Table 4-1 Planned Refinery Projects, Table 4-2 Refinery Construction Outlook Through 2015 Effect on Crude Capability..108 Table 4-3 Refinery Construction Outlook Through 2015 Effect on Crude Capability..108 Table 4-4 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, US Table 4-5 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Other North America Table 4-6 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Europe Table 4-7 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Central/South America Table 4-8 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Middle East Table 4-9 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Africa Table 4-10 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Former Soviet Union Table 4-11 Planned Refinery Projects Through 2015, Asia-Pacific