Construction Employment in the Twin Cities April 14, 2016

Transcription

1 Minnesota Department of Employment and Economic Development Construction Employment in the Twin Cities April 14, 2016 Tim O Neill Regional Analysis & Outreach Unit Minnesota Dept. of Employment & Economic Development Labor Market Information Office

2 Labor Market Information Office Each state produces employment and economic statistics in cooperation with U.S. Department of Labor s Bureau of Labor Statistics LMI includes employment statistics, unemployment rates, wages and salaries, job projections and more LMI is the foundation for informed, market-responsive planning

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4 National Numbers - March Healthy employment growth US adds 215,000 jobs in March* Growth lead by retail trade, construction, and health care Job losses occurred in mining and manufacturing Unemployment steady at 5.0% Labor force participation rate at 63.0% Wages up 2.3% over-the-year

5 Minnesota Numbers - February Employment growth steady in 2016 MN gains 9,000 jobs in February 42,137 jobs over-the-year (1.8% growth) Unemployment steady at 3.7% Labor force participation rate at 70.9% Wages up 1.7% over-the-year

6 Jan-76 Aug-77 Mar-79 Oct-80 May-82 Dec-83 Jul-85 Feb-87 Sep-88 Apr-90 Nov-91 Jun-93 Jan-95 Aug-96 Mar-98 Oct-99 May-01 Dec-02 Jul-04 Feb-06 Sep-07 Apr-09 Nov-10 Jun-12 Jan-14 Aug-15 Labor Force Participation Rate Labor Force Declining Peaked at 75.6% in Baby Boomers leaving the workforce Minnesota United States

7 Regional Unemployment Rates Region February 2016 Unemployment Rate Anoka Co. 4.1% Carver Co. 3.7% Dakota Co. 3.7% Hennepin Co. 3.4% Ramsey Co. 3.7% Scott Co. 3.6% Washington Co. 3.6% Minnesota 4.4% United States 5.2% Not Seasonally Adjusted

8 Record Job Vacancies

9 Construction Employment

10 Jan-00 Nov-00 Sep-01 Jul-02 May-03 Mar-04 Jan-05 Nov-05 Sep-06 Jul-07 May-08 Mar-09 Jan-10 Nov-10 Sep-11 Jul-12 May-13 Mar-14 Jan-15 Nov-15 Construction Employment Construction , , , , ,000 90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 2,900,000 2,850,000 2,800,000 2,750,000 2,700,000 2,650,000 2,600,000 2,550,000 2,500,000 Total Nonfarm Employment Total Nonfarm Construction

11 Monthly Employment Data: CES (Current Employment Statistics) Description: Monthly survey of nonfarm businesses for estimating industry employment, hours and earnings for the 50 states and 250 Metropolitan Statistical Areas. Data source: The CES program is a federal-state cooperative program between the BLS and state agencies. This program is the largest survey of its kind, consisting of of 400,000 businesses nationwide and 5,900 businesses in Minnesota. What it provides: A look at the health of the economy through industry employment numbers, earnings trends and other data. Data limitations: Not available for small, local areas, and data are revised monthly and benchmarked annually.

12 And for Local Areas? QCEW (Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages) Description: Quarterly census of employers for compiling employment and wage statistics. Data are available by industry, ownership type, states, regions, counties and minor civil divisions. Data Source: All establishments covered under the Unemployment Insurance (UI) program are required to report wage and employment statistics. What it provides: Industry employment and wage information at the state, regional, county and minor civil division levels. These data are used for state revenue forecasting, employment density studies, and economic planning and development. Data limitations: Six month time lag and some data confidentiality.

13 Metro Industry Trends Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Prof., Sci., & Technical Services Accomm. & Food Services Manufacturing Retail Trade Management of Companies Arts & Entertainment Wholesale Trade Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Other Services Finance & Insurance Admin. & Support Services Transp. & Warehousing Public Administration Educational Services Utilities Mining Agriculture Information-2, ,822 4,769 4,037 3,613 3,604 2,925 2,439 2,040 1, ,114 11,374 11,296 10,882 18,090 36,509-5, ,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

14 Metro Industry Trends Hennepin Ramsey Dakota Anoka Scott Washington Carver -11,828-5,078-4,154-4,574-1,906-2,254-4,834-1,578-1,032-2, , ,576 4,046 2,127 1, ,994-15,000-10,000-5, ,000 10,

15 Occupational Employment Stats Geography Employment 25 th Percentile Wage Median Wage 75 th Percentile Wage Metro Area 1,691,650 $13.02 $20.49 $32.76 Minnesota 2,730,020 $12.12 $18.65 $29.27 U.S. 135,128,260 $11.25 $17.42 $28.28 According to DEED s Cost of Living Calculator, the basicneeds budget for a typical family in the Metro is: $60,072/year This equates to an hourly wage of $19.25 for each adult worker* *The typical family includes 1 full-time and 1-part-time worker, with 1 child. Construction Occupations Metro Employment Metro Median Wage Total Construction Jobs 47,550 $29.38 Carpenters 5,940 $27.73 Electricians 5,700 $31.64 Plumbers 5,350 $37.98 Construction Laborers 4,530 $24.50 Construction Equipment Operators 3,590 $32.13 Managers of Construction Workers 2,980 $34.53 Painters, Construction & Maintenance 2,370 $18.68

16 Hiring Demand & Characteristics: JVS Description: A semi-annual survey of employers to estimate hiring demand and job vacancy characteristics by industry and occupation. Data Source: Information is gathered through the survey of a stratified sample of about 10,000 firms in 13 regions of Minnesota. Firms excluded include private households, personnel service industry establishments and businesses with no employees. What it provides: A measure of hiring demand for workers and an analysis of the characteristics of job vacancies, including wages and benefits, education and experience requirements, and the location of openings. Data limitations: Point-in-time survey.

17 Construction Vacancies Construction Vacancies 3,000 56,071 60,000 2,500 49,281 2,337 50,000 2,000 1,500 1,000 15,037 34,401 1,746 40,000 30,000 20,000 Total, All Vacancies , Total, All Vacancies Construction Vacancies 0

18 Graduate Employment Outcomes

19 Metro Construction Demographics (Quarterly Workforce Indicators) Age Category Percent of Total Change % Change All Industries % Change Total, All Workers 100.0% -7, % +4.1% years 7.2% -4, % -20.5% years 24.1% -3, % -5.7% years 25.9% -3, % -10.3% years 24.9% % +1.5% years 15.3% +3, % +52.0% 65 years and over 2.6% % +74.1%

20 Metro Construction Demographics (Quarterly Workforce Indicators) Age Category Percent of Total Change % Change All Industries % Change Total, All Workers 100.0% -7, % +4.1% White Alone 94.3% -8, % +0.9% Black or African American 2.6% % +27.1% Native American 0.7% % +14.1% Asian Alone 1.3% % +24.7% Two or More Race Groups 1.0% % +42.7% Hispanic or Latino 3.5% % +20.9%

21 Metro Construction Demographics (Quarterly Workforce Indicators) Health Care & Social Assistance Admin. & Support Services Accomm. & Food Services Manufacturing Transportation & Warehousing Retail Trade Other Services Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Information Public Administration Fianance & Insurance Arts & Entertainment Educational Services Prof., Sci., & Technical Services Management of Companies Wholesale Trade Agriculture Construction Mining 75.1% 77.3% 80.3% 82.6% 84.4% 85.6% 85.7% 86.5% 88.2% 88.3% 88.8% 89.1% 89.1% 89.7% 89.9% 91.8% 92.0% 94.3% 97.6% 24.9% 22.7% 19.7% 17.4% 15.6% 14.4% 14.3% 13.5% 11.8% 11.7% 11.2% 10.9% 10.9% 10.3% 10.1% 8.2% 8.0% 5.7% 2.4% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% Percent White Percent Minority

22 Metro Construction Demographics (Quarterly Workforce Indicators) Construction Mining Transportation & Warehousing Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Agriculture Information Admin. & Support Services Prof., Sci., & Technical Services Public Administration Arts & Entertainment Real Estate, Rental, & Leasing Retail Trade Management of Companies Accomm. & Food Services Fianance & Insurance Other Services Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance 85.2% 85.0% 72.8% 70.4% 68.0% 58.4% 58.0% 56.8% 52.5% 51.6% 51.0% 50.4% 50.0% 48.6% 48.2% 44.3% 43.1% 32.4% 23.7% 14.8% 15.0% 27.2% 29.6% 32.0% 41.6% 42.0% 43.2% 47.5% 48.4% 49.0% 49.6% 50.0% 51.4% 51.8% 55.7% 56.9% 67.6% 76.3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Male Female

23 MN Employment Outlook With the labor market fully recovered from the recent recession, current projections show a more balanced outlook through 2022 Job growth over the next decade will average 0.7% a year, a slower pace than previous projections National projections at 1.0% a year The key macroeconomic assumptions driving the national industry projections are: Demographic changes drive demand for healthcare & related services Labor force growth will slow below 0.5% annually (baby-boomers leaving) GDP projected to increase at an annual rate of 2.6% Economy will reach full-employment by 2022

24 MN Industry Outlook Health Care & Social Assistance Construction Prof. & Technical Services Admin. & Waste Services Retail Trade Accommodation & Food Services Finance & Insurance Wholesale Trade Educational Services Other Services Arts & Entertainment Real Estate, Rental, Leasing Management of Companies Agriculture Mining Trans. & Warehousing Utilities Manufacturing Information -1,079-4,077-4,126 23,685 18,905 16,966 10,820 10,318 8,737 6,101 5,148 4,998 4,243 4,047 2, ,796-20, ,000 40,000 60,000 80, ,000

25 MN Industry Outlook (New & Replacement Openings) Carpenters Construction Laborers Electricians Operating Engineers and Other Construction Equipme Plumbers, Pipefitters, and Steamfitters Painters, Construction and Maintenance First-Line Supervisors of Construction Trades and Cement Masons and Concrete Finishers Highway Maintenance Workers Sheet Metal Workers Roofers Brickmasons and Blockmasons Construction and Building Inspectors Paving, Surfacing, and Tamping Equipment Operators Structural Iron and Steel Workers 1, ,240 3,790 3,260 2,510 2,190 2,070 6, ,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

26 Let me know how I can help Tim O Neill Twin Cities Labor Market Analyst Phone: (651) Timothy.oneill@state.mn.us Department of Employment and Economic Development