A Labour Economic Profile of New Brunswick

Transcription

1 A Labour Economic Profile of New Brunswick January 2016

2 Table of Contents New Brunswick Highlights Current Business Environment GDP Snapshot Employment in New Brunswick Productivity and Business Size Human Resources Profile Demographics Top Occupations Wage and Salary Information Regional Highlights Employers Employees Business Outlook GDP Forecast Employment Forecast Links for Additional Information New Brunswick Sectors For the purposes of this document, New Brunswick s economy is divided into fifteen sectors: 1 Natural Resources (NAICS 11, 21) 2 Utilities (NAICS 22) 3 Construction (NAICS 23) 4 Manufacturing (NAICS 31-33) 5 Retail and Wholesale Trade (NAICS 41, 44-45) 6 Transportation and Warehousing (NAICS 48-49) 7 Information, Culture and Recreation (NAICS 51, 71) 8 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing (NAICS 52, 53) 9 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services (NAICS 54) 10 Business, Building and Other Support Services (NAICS 55, 56) 11 Educational Services (NAICS 61) 12 Healthcare and Social Assistance (NAICS 62) 13 Accommodation and Food Services (NAICS 72) 14 Other Services (NAICS 81) 15 Public Administration (NAICS 91) Funded by the Government of Canada and the Province of New Brunswick through the Canada-New Brunswick Labour Market Development Agreement Prepared by: 1 Note: This profile includes data from a variety of sources, using different methodologies that are subject to periodic and retroactive revisions. As a result, data from one source may not match with data from other datasets. Information about the sources and methodologies used are available upon request.

3 New Brunswick Highlights 353,900 Employed in the province in 2014, a 1.7% increase since 2004 The Retail and Wholesale Trade Sector had the highest level of employment (57,200) in 2014 $26.06 Billion Real GDP For the province in 2014: a 6.8% increase since 2004 The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Sector accounted for the largest proportion (17.9%) in % Wage Increase In New Brunswick since 2004, compared to 32.5% for all of Canada The Utilities Sector had the highest average hourly wage ($33.43) of all sectors in % of NB Workers Employed in one of the top 5 occupations in the province Retail salespersons was the most common occupation in New Brunswick in % Male Percentage of those employed in the province who were male in 2014 The Construction Sector employed the highest proportion of males (92%), while the Healthcare and Social Assistance Sector employed the highest proportion of females (84%) Projected Growth For both real GDP (18.8%) and Employment (5.5%) The largest real GDP increase is forecasted for the Natural Resources Sector (33.3%), while the largest employment increase is forecasted for the Healthcare and Social Assistance Sector (17.3%) 2

4 Billions of Dollars Current Business Environment Proportion of New Brunswick Real GDP by Sector: % 3.9% Natural Resources 3.4% Utilities 5.4% Construction GDP Snapshot In 2004, NB s real gross domestic product (GDP) was $24.10 Billion 1 By 2014, real GDP rose to $26.06 Billion 1, a 6.8% increase from 2004 The Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Sector accounted for the largest proportion of New Brunswick real GDP in 2014, at 17.9% 2 The Other Services Sector accounted for the smallest proportion of New Brunswick real GDP in 2014, at 2.0% 2 80% 60% 11.7% 10.9% 4.7% 3.9% 17.9% Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information, Culture and Recreation Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 28 Real GDP at Basic Prices for New Brunswick 1 (Chained 2007 Dollars) 40% 3.4% 4.3% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Business, Building and Other Support Services % Educational Services 20% 9.6% Healthcare and Social Assistance % 2.0% Accommodation and Food Services Other Services % Public Administration 0% 1

5 Thosuands of People Employment in New Brunswick 2014 by the Numbers 3,4,5 Population: 754,600 Labour force: 393,000 Employed: 353,900 (84.1% full-time, 15.9% part-time) 39,100 unemployed Unemployment rate: 9.9% The highest level of employment is within the private sector The Retail and Wholesale Trade Sector accounted for the largest proportion of employment in New Brunswick (16.2%) The Utilities Sector accounted for the smallest proportion of employment in New Brunswick (1.1%) 100% 80% 60% Proportion of New Brunswick Employment by Sector: % 1.1% 8.0% 7.9% 16.2% 4.6% 3.1% 4.2% Natural Resources Utilities Construction Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information, Culture and Recreation Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Historical Employment Levels in New Brunswick 5 4.9% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services % 5.5% Business, Building and Other Support Services % Educational Services % Healthcare and Social Assistance % 6.8% Accommodation and Food Services % Other Services Self-employed Public sector Private sector Total 4 6.4% Public Administration 0% 1

6 Millions of Hours Productivity and Business Size Productivity Total of 629,225,000 hours worked in for all jobs in the province Hours worked in the province have fluctuated a fair amount since Labour Productivity 1,6,7 (2013): A measure of productivity based on GDP per hour worked $41.44 output per hour of work in the province Compensation 6 (2013): $17.23 Billion per year for all jobs in the province $27.39 is the average hourly compensation in the province Total Hours Worked for All Jobs in New Brunswick Labour Productivity (Output per Hour) in New Brunswick by Sector: ,6,7 All Industries Natural Resources Utilities Construction Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation & Warehousing Info, Culture & Rec. Finance, Insurance, & Holding Companies Real Estate, Rental & Leasing Professional, Scientific & Technical Services Admin. & Support, Waste Management & Remediation Services Educational Services Healthcare and Social Assistance $41.44 $41.21 $23.04 $47.23 $33.18 $34.64 $54.29 $54.30 $37.59 $21.09 $28.82 $54.04 $ $ Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Public Administration $14.44 $16.98 $56.90 $0 $100 $200 5

7 Thousands of People Business Size 4,8 Businesses with less than 20 employees were responsible for the largest proportion of New Brunswick employment in 2014 (38.8% of total employees) Businesses with more than 500 employees accounted for the smallest proportion of New Brunswick employment in 2014 (8.8% of total employees) There has been some change in employment between 2004 and 2014: There has been a slight increase (1.7%) in the number of jobs in the province Overall, there has been an increase in employment for smaller businesses (less than 20 employees and 20 to 99 employees) and a decrease in employment for larger businesses (100 to 500 employees and more than 500 employees) Businesses with 20 to 99 employees experienced the greatest relative increase in employment Number of Employees by Employment Size in New Brunswick Less than 20 employees 20 to 99 employees 100 to 500 employees More than 500 employees 6

8 Employment Size Breakdown in New Brunswick by Sector: % 75% 50% 36.2% 20.3% 48.6% 27.0% 20.0% 29.8% 55.7% 15.9% 38.4% 30.1% 30.7% 34.9% 25.7% 26.5% 25.8% 15.1% 39.6% 35.5% 29.7% 25.7% 37.8% 56.3% 29.4% 8.7% 40.6% 4.0% 15.0% 81.0% 38.3% 33.8% 25% 43.5% 24.3% 50.2% 27.1% 17.2% 45.7% 39.2% 39.4% 47.7% 45.3% 34.8% 18.0% 32.8% 50.7% 27.9% 0% Less than 20 employees 20 to 99 employees More than 100 employees 7

9 Human Resources Profile Demographics Gender Breakdown 4 In 2014, 393,000 people were part of the labour force in New Brunswick: 203,600 men 179,300 (or 88.1%) were employed 189,400 women 174,600 (or 92.2%) were employed Gender Breakdown of New Brunswick Employment by Sector: All Industries Natural Resources Utilities Construction Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information, Culture and Recreation Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Business, Building and Other Support Services Educational Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Public Administration 50.7% 79.0% 74.4% 92.2% 74.3% 51.7% 70.6% 59.1% 43.6% 55.7% 55.8% 32.8% 16.3% 30.3% 40.8% 48.4% 49.3% 21.0% 25.6% 7.8% 25.7% 48.3% 29.4% 40.9% 56.4% 44.3% 44.2% 67.2% 83.7% 69.7% 59.2% 51.6% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Male Female 8

10 Age Distribution 4 Employment in New Brunswick by Age: 2004 vs The working population of the province has become older since 2004, with a higher proportion of employees aged 55 and older and fewer employees aged The Accommodation and Food Services Sector had the highest proportion employed in the age range (36.1%) in 2014 The Educational Services Sector had the highest proportion employed in the age range (73.9%) in 2014 The Natural Resources Sector had the highest proportion employed in the 55 and older age range (30.4%) in % 60% 40% 20% 0% 71.8% 65.3% 15.5% 12.8% 12.9% Ages Ages Ages % Age Distribution of New Brunswick Employment by Sector: Natural Resources 8.1% 61.5% 30.4% Utilities 2.6% 69.2% 28.2% Construction 8.9% 67.7% 23.4% Manufacturing 10.7% 67.9% 21.4% Retail and Wholesale Trade 21.1% 58.6% 20.2% Transportation and Warehousing 4.3% 70.1% 25.6% Information, Culture and Recreation 18.0% 66.7% 15.3% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 5.3% 69.3% 25.3% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 9.8% 68.2% 22.0% Business, Building and Other Support Services 14.2% 65.0% 20.8% Educational Services 6.2% 73.9% 19.8% Healthcare and Social Assistance 9.0% 68.5% 22.5% Accommodation and Food Services 36.1% 48.5% 15.4% Other Services 12.4% 60.4% 27.2% Public Administration 7.5% 73.0% 19.5% 0% 25% 50% 75% 100% Ages Ages Ages 55+ 9

11 Top Occupations % of those working in New Brunswick are in one of the five National Occupational Classification (NOC) occupations listed below 20% of occupations account for 74.5% of employment in New Brunswick Most Common Occupations in New Brunswick: Occupation NOC Retail salespersons 6421 Other customer and information services representatives 6552 Cashiers 6611 Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 3012 Retail and wholesale trade managers 0621 Occupation Statistics by Sector in New Brunswick: Sector % of Sector Employment in the Five Most Common Occupations Natural Resources 34.4% Utilities 39.0% Construction 47.1% Manufacturing 22.6% Retail and Wholesale Trade 55.9% Transportation and Warehousing 46.2% Information, Culture and Recreation 23.9% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing 40.1% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services 26.2% Business, Building and Other Support Services 56.5% Educational Services 63.6% Healthcare and Social Assistance 49.0% Accommodation and Food Services 71.0% Other Services 41.5% Public Administration 24.0% 10

12 Most Common Occupation by Sector in New Brunswick: Sector Most Common Occupation % of Those Employed in Most Common Occupation within the Sector Natural Resources Fishermen/women 9.4% Utilities Power engineers and power systems operators 14.7% Construction Carpenters 16.9% Manufacturing Labourers in food, beverage and associated products processing Retail and Wholesale Trade Retail salespersons 22.2% Transportation and Warehousing Transport truck drivers 29.5% Information, Culture and Recreation Other customer and information services representatives 8.4% Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Customer services representatives - financial institutions 11.6% Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Financial auditors and accountants 6.9% Business, Building and Other Support Services Other customer and information services representatives 26.6% Educational Services Elementary school and kindergarten teachers 25.2% Healthcare and Social Assistance Registered nurses and registered psychiatric nurses 15.6% Accommodation and Food Services Food counter attendants, kitchen helpers and related support occupations 4.8% 26.0% Other Services Hairstylists and barbers 15.2% Public Administration Non-commissioned ranks of the Canadian Forces 8.4% 11

13 Wage and Salary Information 10 Wages in New Brunswick were 15.1% lower than the national average in 2014, but have increased proportionally more since 2004 Of the fifteen sectors listed below, the Utilities Sector had the highest average hourly wage in 2014, while the Accommodation and Food Services Sector had the lowest Average Hourly Wage Change in New Brunswick and Canada: Region 2014 Average Wage % Change (Since 2004) New Brunswick $ % Canada $ % Average Hourly Wages by Sector in New Brunswick: All Industries Agriculture Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Quarrying, Oil and Gas Utilities Construction Manufacturing Retail and Wholesale Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information, Culture and Recreation Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing Professional, Scientific and Technical Services Business, Building and Other Support Services Educational Services Healthcare and Social Assistance Accommodation and Food Services Other Services Public Administration $20.82 $24.51 $15.07 $16.38 $22.30 $34.99 $33.43 $36.92 $22.14 $20.27 $26.84 $24.66 $16.24 $18.60 $20.65 $21.69 $24.10 $23.27 $22.99 $27.94 $26.38 $30.85 $16.85 $18.57 $26.48 $30.94 $22.43 $25.38 $12.71 $14.14 $17.56 $21.13 $27.24 $

14 Thousands of People Regional Highlights Employers 11 Regional distribution of the 27,028 companies active in the province in 2014: Northeast (NE) = 22.0% Southeast (SE) = 28.4% Southwest (SW) = 21.6% Central (C) = 16.4% Northwest (NW) = 11.6% NW C NE SW SE Number of Employers in New Brunswick by Economic Region: NE SE SW C NW Unknown Number of Employers in New Brunswick by Employment Size: ,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 Region Total NE 4,554 1, ,799 SE 5,478 1, ,492 SW 4,154 1, ,694 C 3,088 1, ,337 NW 2, ,075 Unknown TOTAL 20,080 5, ,028 Employees 12 Regional distribution of the 353,900 employed in the province in 2014: Northeast (NE) = 17.3% Southeast (SE) = 30.4% Southwest (SW) = 24.1% Central (C) = 17.9% Northwest (NW) = 10.2% Number of Employees in New Brunswick by Economic Region NE SE SW C NW 13

15 New Brunswick Employment Breakdown by Economic Region and Sector: % 30.6% 15.4% 21.6% 16.4% 16.2% 9.8% 10.9% 10.7% 9.2% 12.2% 17.2% 20.2% 19.2% 18.3% 20.9% 75% 12.8% 25.5% 28.9% 33.0% 41.1% 40.0% 40.3% 30.5% 38.8% 24.6% 29.0% 29.6% 31.4% 26.2% 50% 19.4% 23.1% 33.3% 25.9% 24.6% 23.0% 22.1% 23.6% 28.2% 27.0% 30.6% 21.5% 25.9% 23.8% 20.7% 16.4% 25% 0% 13.1% 13.8% 30.8% 7.7% 16.0% 11.0% 11.1% 18.9% 17.3% 10.5% 12.3% 14.7% 28.2% 19.1% 16.1% 13.8% 6.4% 4.7% 5.2% 4.6% 27.3% 14.2% 19.6% 9.4% 10.7% 7.9% 17.2% 28.9% 12.4% 7.6% Northeast (NE) Southeast (SE) Southwest (SW) Central (C) Northwest (NW) 14

16 Thousands of People Billions of Dollars Business Outlook GDP Forecast 9 In 2015, real GDP in the province is forecasted to be $27.77 Billion It is forecasted that in 2024, real GDP will rise to $33.00 Billion an18.8% increase from 2015 Forecasted Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in New Brunswick Employment Forecast In 2015, 354,808 individuals are forecasted to work in the province It is forecasted that in 2024, 374,470 individuals will work in the province a 5.5% increase from 2015 With annual attrition (deaths and retirements) expected to remain stable, but trend slightly down from 2015 to 2024, total job openings will fluctuate with job growth in the Sector 400 Forecasted Employment in New Brunswick 9 19,000 Forecasted Job Openings in New Brunswick ,000 9,000 4,000-1, Openings due to Attrition Job Growth Total Job Openings 15

17 Forecasted New Brunswick Employment and Real GDP Statistics by Sector 9 Sector Forecasted % Change in Real GDP ( ) Forecasted % Change in Employment ( ) Forecasted Proportion of Total Employment in 2024 Forecasted Job Openings in 2024 Natural Resources +33.3% +2.1% 4.4% 469 Utilities +12.5% -0.6% 1.1% 142 Construction +27.4% +8.0% 8.3% 885 Manufacturing +16.9% -4.7% 6.9% 570 Retail and Wholesale Trade +21.8% +6.7% 16.4% 1,741 Transportation and Warehousing +19.9% -9.5% 3.9% 479 Information, Culture and Recreation +22.8% +7.5% 3.4% 367 Finance, Insurance, Real Estate and Leasing +20.7% +5.1% 4.2% 501 Professional, Scientific and Technical Services +25.6% +8.0% 5.0% 556 Business, Building and Other Support Services +24.9% +7.4% 5.7% 536 Educational Services -4.1% -5.0% 6.4% 740 Healthcare and Social Assistance +18.4% +17.3% 16.6% 2,714 Accommodation and Food Services +21.3% +6.7% 6.8% 476 Other Services +19.7% +5.4% 4.5% 483 Public Administration +7.1% +5.2% 6.3% 866 All Industries (TOTAL) +18.8% +5.5% 100.0% 11,570 16

18 Links for Additional Information Government Sources NBjobs.ca Labour Market Information New Brunswick Department of Finance Sector Definitions - North American Industry Classification System, 2012 (NAICS) Classification of Occupations - National Occupational Classification, 2011 (NOC) For Additional Information Contact: New Brunswick Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour lmi@gnb.ca Data Sources 1 Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table The New Brunswick Department of Post-Secondary Education, Training and Labour 10 Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table Statistical Registers and Geography Division, Statistics Canada Special Run 12 Statistics Canada, CANSIM, Table