Reliance Industries. (CMP/TP: `732/1,006) (Buying Range: `732 to `747)

Transcription

1 (CMP/TP: `732/1,006) (Buying Range: `732 to `747) Core business margins to stabilise: RIL reported robust refining margins of US$10.2/bbl in 1HFY2012. However, during 3QFY2012, Singapore gross refining margins (GRMs) have declined to US$7-8/bbl. Nevertheless, we do not expect gross refining margins to fall below the current level consequent to higher demand from the emerging economies. RIL v/s Benchmark Singapore GRMs (US $/bbl) QFY09 3QFY09 4QFY09 1QFY10 2QFY10 RIL GRMs Source: Company, Angel Research 3QFY10 4QFY10 1QFY11 2QFY11 3QFY11 4QFY11 Singapore GRMs 1QFY12 2QFY12 Ramp-up in KG-D6 could re-rate the stock: RIL s upstream segment still has significant upside in store, considering the huge untapped resources. Although RIL is producing natural gas below its potential 80mmscmd from KG-D6 due to constraints over reservoir pressure, we believe it will ramp up its production over the medium term with the help of BP s technical expertise. Also, RIL has recently concluded several three-year exploration phases on the prospective eastern coast and is expected to commence with the development phase soon. RIL expects to commence significant E&P activities from CY2014. Foray into newer businesses: RIL has been eyeing inorganic routes for diversifying its asset portfolio by entering into newer ventures, such as retail and telecom, on the back of significant cash pile (`61,490cr as on September 30, 2011) and treasury stocks. Initiatives such as shale gas acquisitions, with in-place reserves of ~12TCF, could prove to be a potential trigger for the stock in the long term.

2 Outlook & Valuation: RIL s extant businesses (refining and petrochemicals) continued to perform well during the quarter. However, there are some concerns on the KG basin gas output. t Nevertheless, ertheless we believe RIL s deal with BP is a positive one, as the combined expertise of both the parties will result in optimization of producing blocks and enhancement of resources in exploratory blocks. Thus, the ramp-up in producing fields would improve investor confidence. We maintain our Buy view on RIL with an SOTP-based target price of `1,006. Valuation Snapshot Valuations based on SOTP Business segment `/share Refining (EV/EBITDA 7x) 432 Petrochemical (EV/EBITDA 7x) 92 KG-D6 Gas (DCF) 168 KG-MA Oil (DCF) 45 NEC-25 (EV/boe 5.5x) 5 54 D3 (EV/boe 5.5x) 60 D9 (EV/boe 5.5x) 35 Shale Gas ventures (EV/boe 3.5x) 60 Other prospective basins 30 Retail 15 Investment/Others 36 Total EV 1,029 Net debt (23) Equity Value (`) 1,006 Y/E Sales OPM PAT EPS ROE P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA EV/Sales March (` cr) (%) (` cr) (`) (%) (x) (x) (x) (x) FY2012E 316, , FY2013E 328, ,

3 Profit & Loss Statement (Consolidated) Total operating income 203, , , ,147 % chg Balance Sheet (Consolidated) SOURCES OF FUNDS Equity Share Capital 2,978 2,981 2,981 2,981 EBITDA 30,894 38,961 40,969 44,172 Reserves& Surplus 138, , , ,038 (% of Net Sales) Shareholders Funds 141, , , ,021 Depreciation& Amortisation 10,946 14, ,967 12,542 Total Loans 64, ,106 62,500 54,830 Interest & other Charges 2,060 2,411 2,150 1,792 Deferred Tax Liability 10,678 11,071 12,714 14,839 Other Income 2,185 2,543 3,450 3,795 Total Liabilities 216, , , ,492 (% of PBT) APPLICATION OF FUNDS Recurring PBT 20, ,972 30, ,633 Gross Block 224, , , ,371 Extraordinary Income/Exp 8,606 (917) - - PBT (reported) 28,680 24,055 30,302 33,633 Tax 4,256 4,783 7,272 8,072 (% of PBT) PAT (reported) 24,424 19,272 23,029 25,561 Minority interest (MI) PAT after MI (reported) 24,503 19,294 23,063 25,602 ADJ. PAT(core) 18,572 18,976 23,063 25,602 % chg Less: Acc. Depreciation 63,934 80,193 92, ,702 Net Block 160, , , ,668 Capital Work-in-Progress 17,034 29,742 15,000 17,172 Investments 13,112 21,596 21,596 21,596 Current Assets 69,106 98, , ,100 Current liabilities and provisions 42,586 57,445 61,085 62,046 Net Current Assets 26,520 40,634 51,047 58,054 Mis. Exp. not written off Total Assets 216, , , ,492

4 Cash Flow Statement (Consolidated) Profit before tax 28,680 24,055 30,302 33,633 Depreciation 14,001 16,820 11,967 12,542 Change in Working Capital (5,939) (13,501) (260) 654 Less: Other income (1,786) (1,722) (1,300) (2,003) Direct taxes paid (3,140) (4,243) (7,272) (8,072) Cash Flow from Operations 31,815 33,338 33,437 36,755 (Inc.)/ Dec. in Fixed Assets (23,017) (33,604) (1,938) (22,570) (Inc.)/ Dec. in Investments 2,645 (8,102) - - Key Ratios Valuation Ratio (x) P/E (on FDEPS) P/CEPS P/BV EV/Sales EV/EBITDA Per Share Data (`) EPS (fully diluted) (Inc.)/ Dec. in loans & adv. (19) - 16 Cash EPS Other income 2,160 9,666 3,450 3,795 DPS Cash Flow from Investing (18,231) (32,040) 1,511 (18,759) Book Value Issue of Equity Returns (%) Inc./(Dec.) in loans (5,822) 20,701 (21,606) (7,670) ROCE (Pre-tax) Dividend Paid (Incl. Tax) (2,219) (2,431) (2,683) (2,981) Angel ROIC (Pre-tax) Others (14,907) (8,378) (507) 317 ROE Cash Flow from Financing (22,436) 14,950 (24,796) (10,334) Turnover ratios (x) Inc./(Dec.) in Cash (8,851) 16,248 10,152 7,661 Inventory / Sales (days) Opening Cash balances 22,742 13,891 30,139 40,291 Receivables (days) Closing Cash balances 13,891 30,139 40,291 47,953 Payables (days)

5 Research Team Tel: Website: DISCLAIMER This document is solely for the personal information of the recipient, and must not be singularly used as the basis of any investment decision. Nothing in this document should be construed as investment or financial advice. Each recipient of this document should make such investigations as they deem necessary to arrive at an independent evaluation of an investment in the securities of the companies referred to in this document (including the merits and risks involved), and should consult their own advisors to determine the merits and risks of such an investment. Angel Broking Limited, its affiliates, directors, its proprietary trading and investment businesses may, from time to time, make investment decisions that are inconsistent with or contradictory to the recommendations expressed herein. The views contained in this document are those of the analyst, and the company may or may not subscribe to all the views expressed within. Reports based on technical and derivative analysis center on studying charts of a stock's price movement, outstanding positions and trading volume, as opposed to focusing on a company's fundamentals and, as such, may not match with a report on a company's fundamentals. The information in this document has been printed on the basis of publicly available information, internal data and other reliable sources believed to betrue, butwedonot representthatitisaccurateorcompleteanditshouldnotbereliedonassuch, as this document is for general guidance only. Angel Broking Limited or any of its affiliates/ group companies shall not be in any way responsible for any loss or damage that may arise to any person from any inadvertent error in the information contained in this report. Angel Broking Limited has not independently verified all the information contained within this document. Accordingly, we cannot testify, nor make any representation or warranty, express or implied, to the accuracy, contents or data contained within this document. While Angel Broking Limited endeavours to update on a reasonable basis the information discussed in this material, there may be regulatory, compliance, or other reasons that prevent us from doing so. This document is being supplied to you solely for your information, and its contents, information or data may not be reproduced, redistributed or passed on, directly or indirectly. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may seek to provide or have engaged in providing corporate finance, investment banking or other advisory services in a merger or specific transaction to the companies referred to in this report, as on the date of this report or in the past. Neither Angel Broking Limited, nor its directors, employees or affiliates shall be liable for any loss or damage that may arise from or in connection with the use of this information. Note: Please refer to the important `Stock Holding Disclosure' report on the Angel website (Research Section). Also, please refer to the latest update onrespectivestocksfor the disclosure status in respect of those stocks. Angel Broking Limited and its affiliates may have investment positions in the stocks recommended in this report. Disclosure of Interest Statement Reliance Industries 1. Analyst ownership of the stock No 2. Angel and its Group companies ownership of the stock No 3. Angel and its Group companies' Directors ownership of the stock Yes 4. Broking relationship with company covered No Note: We have not considered any Exposure below ` 1 lakh for Angel, its Group companies and Directors.