SOHO China (410) Buy Nov 20, Company update. 4 Acquisitions within 6 Months. Samson Man, CFA (852) samson.man@firstshanghai.com.
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1 SOHO China (410) Company update Buy Nov 20, Acquisitions within 6 Months Purchase Nexus Centre in Beijing. SOHO China announced to acquire Nexus Centre in Beijing. Total GFA is 103,340 sqm. Total consideration is RMB 2,340m, of which RMB 1,050m is loan repayment. Therefore, average cost is RMB 22,643/sqm. The company plans to sell this project next year. Occupancy rate is 30% and average rental is RMB /sqm/day. SOHO China expects ASP for office and retail shop in Nexus Centre are RMB 40,000 per sqm and RMB 56,000 per sqm, respectively. Samson Man, CFA (852) samson.man@firstshanghai.com.hk Industry China Properties 740,000 sqm land replenishment last 6 months. SOHO China acquired 4 projects in past 6 months. Land bank is enlarged by 0.74m sqm to 1.95m sqm. Except 80k sqm land bank in Shanghai, all of them are located in Beijing, especially around CBD area. Other projects of 250,000 sqm are under negotiation. Investment amount is estimated to be RMB 6.7bn. Price HK$ 4.20 Target price HK$ 6.81 (+62.0%) RMB 11.3bn contracted sales YTD. SOHO China achieved a contracted sales amount of RMB 11.3bn YTD or 94.2% of full year target of RMB 12bn. Majority of pre-sales is contributed from Sanlitun SOHO. The company plans to launch SOHO Nexus Centre, SOHO Exchange and Galaxy SOHO next year. Sales target will be RMB 15bn in Adjust 2010 forecast upward. On the one hand, sale in Beijing SOHO Residence and Zhongguancun SOHO is less than our expectation. On the other, sale in Nexus Centre will contribute 2010 earning. Therefore, we have revived our earnings forecasts by -6.9%/15.1%/-3.2% to RMB 1.8bn, RMB 2.8 bn and RMB 2.8 bn in 09-11E respectively. Meanwhile, we introduce our end-10 NAV per share to be HK$9.77. Applying a30% discount to GAV, target price is HK$6.81. Upside potential is 62%. Maintain as BUY HK$1=RMB0.88 Stock code 410 Market cap. HK$21,790mn O/S shares 5,188mn 52wk high/low HK$ 5.4/2.25 NAV per share HK$9.77 Major shareholder Marita Pan & Pan Shiyi (66.5%) Earning Summary Year-end 31 Dec FY07A FY08A FY09E FY10E FY11E Turnover (RMB m) 6,954 3,121 10,867 16,477 14,430 Growth (%) 300 (55) (12) Net Profit (RMB m) 1, ,787 2,811 2,768 Growth (%) 476 (80) (2) EPS (RMB) Growth (%) 424 (84) (2) PER (x) DPS (RMB) Yield (%) Source: Company information, FSSL Price Performance HK$ /08 12/08 1/09 2/09 3/09 4/09 5/09 6/09 7/09 8/09 9/09 10/09 Source: Bloomberg First Shanghai Securities Limited
2 Acquire a building in Beijing with GFA of 103k sqm Nexus Centre Acquisition SOHO China announced to acquire Nexus Centre in Beijing. The building is a 37-storey office and retail complex which is situated at East Third Ring Road. Total GFA is 103,340 sqm and total saleable GFA is 82,165 sqm. Total consideration is RMB 2,340m, of which RMB 1,050m is loan repayment to ICBC. Based on total GFA, average cost is RMB 22,643 per sqm. It is expected that the transaction will be completed on 1 December 2009 and presales will commence next year. In prime location The building is adjacent to both CBD and Sanlitun. It is completed in February Currently, about 30% of space is leased out. Spot rental is around RMB per sqm per day. SOHO China will rename the building as SOHO Nexus Centre after the transaction is completed. There are about 76,000 sqm of office space, 5,700 sqm of shopping arcade and 21,000 sqm of car park in Nexus Centre. Fetch RMB 1.5bn gross profit The company will leverage in expertise in strong sale force and good relationship with customers. Presales of Nexus Centre will be launched next year. It consists of strata-titled units ranging in sizes from 100 sqm to 500 sqm. ASP is expected to be RMB 40,000 per sqm for office and RMB 56,000 per sqm for retail. These selling prices are closed to that in Sanlitun SOHO. If the company successfully sells all units in Nexus Centre, the company can fetch RMB 1,519m gross profit. 35%+ IRR Office rental yield is about % based on spot rental rate and ASP of RMB 40,000 per sqm. Return is reasonable and closed to rental yield of other Grade-A office in Beijing. Furthermore, SOHO China estimates IRR of this acquisition is more than 35%
3 Acquired 4 projects, 1 in Shanghai, 3 in Beijing Acquired 740k sqm land bank In the past 6 months, SOHO China acquired 4 projects with total land bank of 738,540 sqm. Total acquisition cost is RMB 10.6bn. Except SOHO Exchange in Shanghai, other 3 projects are in Beijing and some are situated at CBD area. Around 2m sqm land bank Land bank increases to 1.95m sqm now, compared with 1.2m sqm at the beginning of The company is still negotiating with other parties for another 3 completed buildings acquisition. Total saleable area of these 3 projects is 251,000 sqm. If SOHO China successfully purchases them, gross profit is estimated to be RMB 4,250m. Table 1: Acquisitions in Past 6 Months Date Project Total GFA (sqm) Consideration (RMB m) Av. Cost (RMB/sqm) 15/5/09 Qianmen 54,691 1,768 32,327 18/8/09 SOHO Exchange 80,509 2,450 30,431 3/9/09 Wangjing B29 plot 500,000 4,000 8,000 18/11/09 SOHO Nexus Centre 103,340 2,340 22,644 Total 738,540 10,558 14,296 Source: Company - 3 -
4 Contracted Sales RMB11bn YTD Achieved 94% of 09 target SOHO China achieved a contracted sales amount of RMB 11.3bn YTD, or 94.2% of 09 full year sales target. Pre-sales mainly is contributed by Sanlitun SOHO. Contracted sales amount from Sanlitun SOHO is RMB 7.4bn YTD. Given RMB 4.3bn un-booked contracted sales from Sanlitun SOHO by end-08, about RMB 11.7bn sales proceeds from Sanlitun SOHO will be booked in 2009 and In coming year, the company plans to launch three new projects, such as SOHO Nexus Centre, SOHO Exchange and Galaxy SOHO. Sales target in 2010 is RMB 15bn. Table 2: YTD Contracted Sales Amount Project Amount (RMB m) Sanlitun SOHO 7,400 Zhongguancun SOHO 940 Chaoyangmen SOHO Phase 1 1,220 Chaoyangmen SOHO Phase 2 1,300 Beijing SOHO Residences 310 Other 130 Total 11,300 Source: Company, FSSL - 4 -
5 Financial Analysis On the one hand, sales in Beijing SOHO Residence and Zhongguancun SOHO are less than our expectation. Contracted sales for Beijing SOHO Residence and Zhongguancun SOHO in 2009 are RMB 310m and RMB940m respectively. On the other hand, sale in Nexus Centre will contribute 2010 earning. Therefore, we have revived our earnings forecasts by -6.9%/15.1%/-3.2% to RMB 1,787m, RMB 2,811m and RMB 2,768m in 09-11E respectively. Table 3: Earnings Revision Fiscal Net Profit (RMB m) (%) EPS (RMB) (%) Year Old New Change Old New Change 2009E 1,919 1, % % 2010E 2,442 2, % % 2011E 2,860 2, % % Source: FSSL HK$6.81 target price Meanwhile, we introduce our end-10 NAV per share. Assuming 9.2% WACC, 8% cap rate and 0.88 RMB-HKD exchange rate, we estimate end-10 NAV per share to be HK$9.77. The counter is trading at 57.0% discount to NAV or 6.8x 10E PE. Valuation is undemanding. We are applying a 30% discount to Gross Asset Value, target price is raised to HK$ 6.81 from HK$6.36. Upside potential is 62%. Maintain as BUY. Table 4: 10 NAV estimation (HK$ m) NAV per share (HK$) % of NAV Remark Properties under development 43, % WACC of 9.2% Investment Property 7, % 8% cap rate Gross Amount 51, % Less: Net debt (529) (0.10) -1% Dec-10 NAV 50, % Source: FSSL End-10 exchange rate: HK$ 1=RMB
6 Completion schedule Source: Company - 6 -
7 Financial Summary Income statement Key statistics and ratios Year end Dec 31 (RMB m) E 2010E 2011E Year end Dec E 2010E 2011E Turnover 6,954 3,121 10,867 16,477 14,430 Growth (%) COSG (3,157) (1,577) (5,808) (8,339) (6,575) Turnover 300 (55) (12) Gross profit 3,797 1,544 5,059 8,138 7,855 Operating profit 344 (68) Other revenue Net profit 476 (80) (2) SGA (461) (582) (728) (1,351) (1,039) EPS 424 (84) (2) Operating profit 3,427 1,080 4,421 6,877 6,906 Margins (%) Interest expenses (36) (128) (138) Gross profit Associated Operating profit Exceptional items Net Profit Pre-tax profit 3,757 1,149 4,385 6,749 6,767 Others (%) Tax (1,769) (726) (2,509) (3,807) (3,827) Effective tax rate After-tax profit 1, ,876 2,942 2,940 Payout ratio Minority interest (22) (24) (89) (131) (172) ROE Net profit 1, ,787 2,811 2,768 ROA Core earnings 1, ,787 2,811 2,768 Current ratio Dividends (523) (519) (623) (934) (1,038) Valuation Retained earnings 1,442 (120) 1,164 1,877 1,730 PE (x) P/B (x) EPS (RMB) P/Cash flow (x) 7.7 N.A. N.A N.A. DPS (RMB) Dividend yield (%) Balance sheet Cash flow statement Year end Dec 31 (RMB m) E 2010E 2011E Year end Dec 31 (RMB m) E 2010E 2011E Cash & deposits 13,749 9,909 7,795 7,398 5,452 Operating Profit 3,427 1,080 4,421 6,877 6,906 Trade debtors ,000 1,400 Depreciation Inventories 7,286 13,898 22,000 25,000 30,000 Change in wc 1,056 (1,932) (8,170) (2,800) (4,800) Other current assets Taxation (316) (1,333) (2,429) (3,907) (4,027) Intangible assets Others (2,213) 67 4, Other LT assets 1, ,020 CF from Operation 1,982 (2,095) (1,966) 1,171 (1,477) Associated Fixed assets ,600 2,900 3,480 Capex (604) (1,617) (1,934) (340) (125) Total assets 23,458 26,071 33,975 37,178 41,422 Associated investments Others (777) (531) 82 (100) (200) ST debt 1,000 1,233 1,800 1, CF from Investing (1,382) (2,147) (1,852) (440) (325) Trade creditors 2,342 2,724 2,800 3,200 3,800 Other current liabilities 4,343 4,890 6,400 7,600 8,800 Equity raised 11,382 (114) LT borrowings 1,000 3,000 7,464 7,464 8,464 Change of Debts 1, ,567 (600) 600 Deferred taxation Dividend paid (106) (576) (519) (623) (934) Other LT liabilities Others (85) (12) (2) Total liabilities 8,840 11,946 18,584 19,584 21,984 CF from Financing 12,392 (240) 2,046 (1,208) (324) S'holders' funds 14,456 13,988 15,256 17,444 19,278 Change in Cash 12,991 (4,482) (1,772) (477) (2,126) Minorities FX Change (324) (380) (20) (20) (20) Total 23,458 26,071 33,975 37,178 41,422 Cash at the beginning 1,081 13,749 8,887 7,095 6,598 Cash at the end 13,749 8,887 7,095 6,598 4,452 Net gearing Net Cash Net Cash Adj: OD or others 0 1, ,000 BVPS (RMB) Cash at BS 13,749 9,909 7,795 7,398 5,452 Source: Company information, FSSL - 7 -
8 First Shanghai Securities Limited 19/F Wing On House 71 Des Voeux Road Central Hong Kong Tel: (852) Fax (852) This publication is prepared by First Shanghai Securities Limited ( FSSL ) and is intended for private circulation only. Any unauthorized use or disclosure is prohibited. This report is solely for information purposes only and does not constitute an offer, solicitation, representation or warranty with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. It has no regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. Neither this report nor anything contained in it shall form the basis of or relied upon in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. While reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not untrue or misleading at the time of publication, FSSL makes no representation as to its accuracy or completeness. Opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions expressed by other subsidiaries or affiliates of FSSL as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Neither FSSL nor any officer or employee of FSSL accepts any liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this publication or its contents. FSSL and/or its affiliates may from time to time, perform investment, advisory or other services for companies mentioned herein. Copyright 2009 First Shanghai Securities Limited. All rights reserved
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