Scenario Analysis Including SWOT Analysis. A Baltic Gateway report Work Package 1 September 2005

Transcription

1 Scenario Analysis Including SWOT Analysis A Baltic Gateway report Work Package 1 September Project Part-financed by the European Union Report produced with assistance from TetraPlan A/S in co-operation with ÅF-Infraplan AB, Bjerkemo Konsult AB and Jan-Evert Nilsson, BTH

2 Scenario Analysis 1 Scenario Analysis including SWOT analysis prepared by TetraPlan A/S in co-operation with Infraplan ab, Bjerkemo Konsult and Jan-Evert Nilsson, BTH Table of Contents 1 Introduction Summary of scenarios Liberalisation scenario General Infrastructure development Regulation Scenario General Infrastructure development TREND scenario Three scenarios TREND scenario Economic development Social development Ecological development Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Improve accessibility Improve interoperability of transport systems Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Liberalisation Scenario Economic development Social development Ecological development Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Improve accessibility Improve interoperability of transport systems Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Regulation Scenario Economic development Social development Ecological development Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Improve accessibility Improve interoperability of transport systems Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport SWOT analysis Sustainable development Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Improve accessibility Improve interoperability... 43

3 Scenario Analysis Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Annex 1. Summary table of scenarios Annex 2: Description of base level Description of base line Data elements Socio-economic data elements Trade and traffic flows Infrastructure and transport Accessibility in time and cost between sub-regions Flows on selected inter-regional network links Regulation Logistics Environmental data elements Cohesion and remoteness data elements Annex 3: SWOT analysis for ports and cities SWOT analysis for ports Port of Karlskrona Port of Karlshamn Port of Trelleborg Port of Ystad Port of Travemünde and Lübeck Port of Rostock Port of Sassnitz/Neu Mukran Port of Swinoujscie and Szczecin Port of Gdansk Port of Gdynia Port of Baltiysk Port of Klaipeda Port of Liepaja

4 Scenario Analysis 3 1 Introduction The overall aim of the Baltic Gateway project is to develop strategic initiatives to promote economic growth and a sustainable development in the South Baltic Sea area (SBSa) by improved use and availability of transport resources in accordance with the joint political statement signed in Malmö, April Preparation of implementation and financing of intermodal transport system improvements is a prioritized task. It has been decided that one of the end results from the project should be a Baltic Gateway Quick Start Programme (BG-QSP) listing prioritized intermodal infrastructure projects, as well as intelligent transport solutions and service oriented projects in the SBSa of European and Baltic Sea value. Goals and strategic initiatives to promote economic growth and a sustainable development are set up based on political statements related to the Baltic Gateway project, and specific interests of the partners in the project. The scope of the work is: To describe present and future freight and passenger transport developments (at road, rail, and sea) in the SBSa conducted via scenario analysis (up to year 2020). To define appropriate measures and selection criteria s to include in the BG-QSP matrix and subsequently in the final Quick Start Program. To conduct regional impact assessment (RIA) based on three transport development scenarios The present paper describes the scenarios. Three different scenarios are developed for the year The scenarios are labelled Trend, Liberalisation and Regulation. The most important differences between the three scenarios concerning transport system development will be attributable to the combined effect of economic growth and the degree of regulation. The scenarios are further described below.

5 Scenario Analysis 4 Figure 1.1. The Baltic Gateway Area including partner ports, twinning arrangements, corridors and regions. The QSP evaluation requirements have been set forth and approved at the April 2005 meeting in Malmö. These requirements relate to: 1. Trans-national relevance 2. Sustainable development in SBSa. 3. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation. 4. Improve accessibility. 5. Improve interoperability of transport systems 6. Strengthen the competitiveness of intermodal transport and provide a framework for improved logistic solutions The development scenarios define the setting in which these requirements are evaluated. The report contains three annexes. In the first there is a summary in table format of the three scenarios. Annex 2 is describing the base case 2003, and the Annex 3 is describing the SWOT analysis for other areas than the overall Baltic Gateway area.

6 Scenario Analysis 5 2 Summary of scenarios The scenarios have been developed based on assumptions concerning the future development of the European Union. Two different development paths are identified: The British path, laying the foundation for the liberalisation scenario. In this scenario (LIB) cost effectiveness and market forces are assumed to have a considerable impact on the development in the Baltic Gateway area up to The French path, laying the foundation for the regulation scenario. In this scenario (REG) EU attaches great weight to the environmental impact and the Kyoto protocol. Regulation is necessary to force the development in the right direction. Between these two paths is the TREND scenario, consisting of a balanced mix of the two abovementioned scenarios. It is a basic assumption that economic development in the Baltic Gateway area is more or less the same in the different scenarios. There is, however, a tendency to a slightly higher economic development in the Baltic Gateway area in LIB, and a slightly lower economic development in REG, as pointed out below. 2.1 Liberalisation scenario General EU has developed fast until Institutions are being refurbished reflecting the development within EU. Ratification of the service directive in 2008 ensured the free movement of labour. This has lead to an increase in employment in EU in general but in the Baltic Gateway in particular. Unemployment rate has dropped to 3 %. Workers from Poland and the Baltic states are employed in great numbers in the agricultural and construction sector in Sweden, Denmark and Germany. The overall higher employment creates a higher income in society and also a higher mobility. The regional development is characterized by a dispersed urban location based on residential location in the suburbs and rural areas and employment concentration in urban and other commercial centres. EU s agricultural funds have been abolished. Therefore, EU is a player on the world market and trade is carried out under the WTO regulations. This applies to all commodities.

7 Scenario Analysis 6 Russia has begun a democratic process and the special Russian region, the exclave of Kaliningrad, has obtained a certain self-government where the Kaliningrad duma can make decisions on the infrastructure development in the area. Activities are being carried out based on decisions supported by cost effectiveness. Development of infrastructure competes with development projects within other sector, and if it is more cost effective to invest in elderly peoples homes money will be directed to these. EU s structural funds have been converted to infrastructure funds. A number of Structural fund projects around the millennium showed that cohesion was best obtained with investments in infrastructure projects across major economic, social or demographic rifts. EU has therefore since 2014 supported investments in this type of infrastructure. Priorities are set based on cost efficiency analysis and cohesion improvement. Use of infrastructure is considered a public benefit. Therefore, all infrastructure investments are carried out for public funds. User charges related to operation and maintenance of infrastructure and transport are maintained, meaning each mode of transport pays its own costs. Important ferry links manage the competition with the land transport on routes where major savings are obtained in terms of drivers and resting time. Routes with small ferries cannot create the necessary cost efficiency. The routes which have survived are the routes with a big potential like Trelleborg Rostock, Ystad Swinoujscie, and routes from the Blekinge ports towards central Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. In this scenario bottlenecks and congestion are not accepted. However competition for limited capacity occurs and has resulted in invention of new transport solutions. The effect of the development is a slightly stronger economic development than foreseen in the TREND scenario, i.e. Economic development in old EU Baltic Gateway countries is about 2.5% per annum, development in new EU Baltic Gateway countries about 6% and unemployment in the whole Baltic Gateway area about 3% Infrastructure development The liberalisation scenario is dominated by a high growth of border crossing traffic related to both the increased trade but also to increased passenger travel resulting from the service directive guaranteeing the free flow of persons in and out of the labour market in the individual EU countries. The main flow is carried out by car, but also air transport accounts for a considerable part of the passenger transport within the Baltic gateway area. Development of infrastructure is based on the development plans available from the different Baltic Gateway countries. The maps of the main networks for road and rail in 2020 in the liberalisation scenario are shown below.

8 Scenario Analysis 7 Figure 2.1. Road infrastructure projects, LIBERALISATION scenario : Motorway : Expressway, dual carriageway Figure 2.2 Rail infrastructure projects, LIBERALISATION scenario : New rail projects

9 Scenario Analysis Regulation Scenario General EU has a proper size and apart from Bulgaria and Romania no new members are admitted into the EU. EU maintains high tolls against competition from the outer world. This relates to agricultural products, fish, textiles and machinery. In Russia, a quasi-democracy with a strong president has developed. All EU countries have ratified the Kyoto protocol and are invoking means to reduce the CO2 emissions to the levels foreseen in the protocol. In order to be able to monitor emissions regulation is necessary. This is particularly the case for the transport sector where reduced emissions are strongly related to the modal shift and limitations on transport. EU has decided to continue the existing common agricultural policy (CAP). This means that Poland, Lithuania and Latvia are main receivers of support whereas Denmark, Sweden and Germany are net payers of this support. The service directive has not been approved, meaning that labour cannot move unhindered across the borders. The structural funds continue and the co-operation across borders is supported by these funds. In the new member countries institutions are being established with the same content and purposes as the existing institutions in the old EU countries. Therefore, fees and dues related to transport infrastructure are maintained, also as a possible mean for transferring traffic from road to alternative transport modes. Subsidies for sea transport have been introduced in order to motivate a shift from long distance land transport driving to shorter road trips and long distance sea transport. Subsidies are also used to ensuring that inter modal transfer costs are kept to a minimum. Ferry routes are eligible for support provided the ferries fulfil requirements for low emission of CO2, other gases and particles. Congestion and bottlenecks in the road system are accepted and the alleviation of these is related to improvement of the rail and sea transport systems. Operation of rail services and other public services are negotiated with public transport offices and a certain amount of subsidy is provided for the so-called social transport tasks. Private financing of infrastructure is part of this scenario. However, acceptance of projects eligible for private financing has to be found. The authorities are particularly keen on establishing environmental effects before an acceptance can be obtained. The effect of the development is a slightly weaker economic development than foreseen in the TREND scenario, i.e. Economic development in old EU Baltic Gateway countries is about 1.5%, development in new EU Baltic Gateway countries

10 Scenario Analysis 9 about 3% and unemployment in the whole Baltic Gateway area about 6% Infrastructure development The regulation scenario attaches in its development goals to the railway and the intermodal centres connecting road transport with sea and rail transport. Therefore, the emphasis in this scenario is placed on the development of the rail system. Figure 2.3 Rail infrastructure projects, REGULATION scenario : New rail projects

11 Scenario Analysis 10 Figure 2.4 Road infrastructure projects, REGULATION scenario : Motorway : Expressway, dual carriageway 2.3 TREND scenario The TREND scenario is a balanced mixture of the two above mentioned scenarios. The TREND scenario could be characterized by a prolongation of the actual development trends up to The scenario contains a balanced mixture of liberalisation issues and regulation issues.

12 Scenario Analysis 11 3 Three scenarios In the following chapter are assumptions concerning the different scenarios set out in detail. The development paths related to the different scenarios are substantiated with data about the existing situation. These data are available in annex 2 of this report. Annex 1 summarises the different assumptions made, in order to compare similarities and differences for the scenarios. The description is linked strongly to the evaluation requirement applied in selection of the Quick Start Programme. However, it should be kept in mind that the QSP consist of different projects and evaluation of projects is different from description of scenarios. 3.1 TREND scenario Economic development. GNP growth Annual economic growth in GNP in the TREND scenario is about 2% in the western part of the area, increasing to about 5% per annum in Latvia, Lithuania and Kaliningrad. Economic development is interrelated with the structure of the society and the framework conditions. Economic development is also interrelated with development in the surrounding areas and thus, local, regional and international trade. The oil price of 80 US$ per barrel in 2000 prices has resulted in development of renewable energy sources, and less dependence on oil as the only energy source. All Baltic Gateway countries except Russia are members of the European Monetary Union and using Euro as their currency. Trade World trade is in 2020 dominated by the Chinese and US economies which have grown with an average of 5% per annum since An important trade flow between China and Europe passes via Minsk into the Baltic Gateway area and is spread to Germany, UK and Scandinavia. Russian trade with the Baltic area is also growing. Russian oil is shipped via the Baltic Sea terminals to west Europe and United States. Productivity is rising in Russia, and there are increasing investments from EU-countries in Russia. The special status of the Kaliningrad exclave in the Russian Federation has created a development potential in the transport and logistics area. Belarus has taken steps in a democratic direction, and relations with Poland, Latvia and Lithuania has improved.

13 Scenario Analysis 12 Trade between countries in the Baltic Gateway area constitute about 18% of total trade in value carried out by the countries. This is an increase compared to 2003 (15%). The recovery of the German economy and the steep growth in the polish economy ensure a major trade potential in the region. Trade, however, is developing fast across the Baltic Sea. In terms of tons the intra Baltic Gateway trade volumes have increased with 75%. Approximately 280 m. tons are shipped between the countries. Trade flows with other parts of the world has increased to new high levels (1,600 m. tons from 1,225 m. tons in 2003). Oil transit via the Russian ports in the Finnish Bay has reached approx. 200 m tons every year from 37 m tons in A certain oil transit is still carried out through the ports of Ventspils, Butinge, Klaipeda and Gdansk. Volumes through Ventspils are about the same as in 2003, whereas volumes through the Lithuanian and Polish ports have doubled. In total 70 m. tons of oil are shipped via these ports Social development. Population The 2003 population of the Baltic Gateway area was approximately 23 m. people. In 2020 population in the Baltic Gateway area has declined slightly to just below 23 m. people. In the western part of the area and particularly in Scania, in Sealand around Copenhagen and in Schleswig- Holstein north of Hamburg there is a positive population development. In the eastern part of the area development is negative except in Warmia-Mazuria and in Pommerania. Population growth is most visible in the suburbs to major functional centres (e.g. Berlin, Sczcecin, Gdansk- Gdynia, Malmö-Lund) with a multitude of functions including universities and administration. Population in the centres of big cities in the area is decreasing. Population is also increasing in medium sized functional centres like Kristianstad, Olsztyn and Potsdam. Figure 3.1. Regional population projection 2020 Population movement from rural areas towards urban or semi-urban areas results in a higher urbanisation throughout the area. Urbanisation

14 Scenario Analysis 13 was already in 2003 quite high in Germany, Sweden and Denmark. The graph below shows that a certain urbanisation is going to take place in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Russia up to Development is, however, moderate. Figure 3.2. Development of share of urban population Employment Car ownership Emissions Structural change in employment has led to a slight increase in industrial occupation in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. Industries have moved from West Europe to the new EU-countries and the industrial sector has continued the transformation to modern and rationalised industries begun in the early 1990 ies. In 2020 the industrial sector s output has doubled in fixed prices but employment is about the same as in Unemployment has declined for the Gateway area seen as a whole (from 9% to about 5%), but has increased in rural areas of the Polish regions, Lithuania and Latvia, because of the transition from agriculture, mining and forestry to administration and services. This has, as indicated above, resulted in a growth in population and employment in the major functional centres. Particularly rural areas located at a distance from main transport corridors or tourism areas are having difficulties in maintaining work places. Income development has resulted in an increase in car ownership. The number of vehicles in the Baltic Gateway area is about 12.5 m. in 2020 of which about 10.7 m. are passenger cars. Each person in the Gateway area is expected to make 2.2 trips per day Ecological development. Development of industrial capacity in the world and the resulting use of fossil fuel have lead to an increase in global emission of CO 2. The quota system introduced in the Kyoto agreement has been initialised and trade with CO 2 quotas has changed the price of CO 2. Production is less polluting and less dependent on fossil solutions. The attitude of purchase

15 Scenario Analysis 14 Noise Accidents and discharge has been regulated to a certain extent of the price of CO 2. The car industry has improved engines and truck construction, but the use of energy and thus, emission of CO 2 (approx 45 m. tons per year related to vehicles in the Baltic Gateway area) constitute a major problem related to use of road vehicles. Other emittants do also expose a problem. NOx, SOx and particles have been drastically reduced in emissions because of technological advances. Some of the advances are related to cleaner technology, reducing emissions from transport modes. Modern road technology has developed fast because of restrictions meant to regulate emissions particularly in central city areas. Emission thresholds are also applicable to ships in ports and to railways not powered by electricity. Also use of new and less polluting fuels for the automotive industry (e.g. electrical fuel cells and hydrogen fuel) is advancing. But commercial use in a big scale is still to be seen. However, in % of passenger cars in the Baltic Gateway area are non-emission cars compared to 25% of all passenger cars in California. Rail propulsion technology is mainly based on electricity, thus making it possible to utilise renewable energy forms for production of electricity. The shipping sector has been slow to follow the road and rail sector in change of technology. EU has established specific norms applicable to the Baltic Sea. Ships not fulfilling these norms are not allowed to use the EU seaports in the Baltic Sea, but they may still use the Russian ports. Sweden was the first country to introduce environmental graduated port dues, but the system is now commonly used in all ports except in Russia. This has particularly improved the emissions from ferries and RORO ships. But many traditional tankers, bulk ships and general cargo ships are still using old technology, particularly ships serving the Russian ports. CO 2 emissions related to ship transport is about 35 m tons. Noise is a particular problem along major roads and in cities. Regulations have been introduced in order to diminish the problem. Regulations include speed limits on motorways through urban areas in order to reduce noise impact, construction of noise screens and use of noise reducing surface layers. However, use of mitigating measures is expensive and progress in curbing the noise problem is counteracted by increase in car ownership. In the Baltic Gateway area environmental regulations have for a long time been applied in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Within the last few years noise reducing measures have also been introduced in Lithuania and Poland. Accident rates are generally related to condition of and traffic in the road system. Fatalities have dropped considerable in Sweden and Denmark. In Germany congestion of the road system has prevented the full effect. However, recent introduction of general speed limits in Germany is expected to provide the wanted result in terms of a reduction of fatali-

16 Scenario Analysis 15 ties. In Poland car ownership is rising, but improvement of the road system has lead to a marked reduction in fatalities. This is also true for Lithuania and Latvia. General Öresund Germany Poland Eastern Gateway Baltic Sea Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Passenger flows across the borders have been increasing. Improved accessibility to the coast of Poland and the Baltic States has increased tourism flow. Cost of rental of summer cottages and hotel charges are still attractive to visitors from the west, and increased wealth in urban areas in Poland, Lithuania and Latvia has created a segment of tourists to Sweden and Denmark which is continuously growing. Main flows across the borders stem from commuters and shoppers. In the Öresund region commuting has reached more than people per day, and total annual traffic across Öresund is about 55 m passengers. Co-operation across Öresund is further increased, integrating timetables, fares and operating systems for buses and trains. New train services have been established between Copenhagen and a number of Swedish cities, among them Karlskrona after electrification of The coast Rail. There are 6 departures per hour per direction between Malmö and Copenhagen and transit time has been reduced to 30 minutes after opening of the Citytunnel. Passages across the Polish German border have increased. Traffic has increased particularly between Berlin and Szczecin, where a new rail service has been introduced with 2 passenger departures per hour in each direction and a number of freight trains providing intermodal traffic between Berlin and Szczecin. Trans-national co-operation is increasing between Warmia-Mazuria and Kaliningrad and between Kaliningrad and Lithuania. Easing of visa requirements for crossing of the border has meant a considerable increase in people moving across the borders in the region. Connections across the Baltic Sea have been improved in the western part of the area with establishment of the fixed link across Fehmarn Belt and new bus operations between Copenhagen and Lübeck, Kiel and Hamburg. But also frequencies of the ferry routes have been improved mainly serving the fast increasing freight market, but also providing better access for passengers. Low cost flights are giving easy access between a number of destinations in the Baltic Gateway area Improve accessibility Accessibility has two dimensions, one is to provide access to main functional centres, the other is to ensure sufficient access to remote areas. Therefore, accessibility has to do with availability and operation of infrastructure, including time and costs for travel between two places. Infrastructure Development of infrastructure depends on investment capacity. With the same economic development potential different scenarios may as-

17 Scenario Analysis 16 Road infrastructure sume different investment capacities. Further, investment capacities may be utilized in different ways, thus creating different framework conditions for the future freight transport business. Investment capacity and its utilization will therefore impact on future infrastructure investments. The baseline for the different scenarios regarding infrastructure investments is indicated below. Infrastructure investments have been carried out according to existing plans. Therefore, the motorway and expressway systems in Poland have seen an immense improvement ensuring fast and efficient transport both in the north south and east west direction of the country. The Fehmarn Belt fixed link has been established with the necessary road and rail investments. In Germany, Denmark and Sweden general road pricing has been in existence for several years. In Germany the revenue has been used for significant investments in road and rail infrastructure and terminals. In Denmark and Sweden road user charges are seen as general taxes and used as such. In the context of United Nations Development Account Capacity Building Project on Interregional Transport linkages the link Kaliningrad Minsk is part of the new development of the Europe Asia road connection. Certain parts of the road have been finalised. A number of smaller projects have been established, among them the improvement of E22 in Sweden. But also a number of bypasses have been constructed along the Via Hanseatica, among them bypasses round Slupsk and Koszalin.

18 Scenario Analysis 17 Figure 3.3. Road infrastructure projects, TREND scenario Rail infrastructure Green roads are road projects implemented in the TREND scenario. Also improvement of rail infrastructure is progressing, the pace, however, is slower than development of the road network. After a decline in rail transport in the beginning of the century there is now (2020) recorded a moderate growth because of a change from national towards international traffic. Main projects which have been implemented include the Baltic rail from Riga via Vilnius to Warsaw, the rail link between Katowice and Gdansk and the rail link Warsaw Gdansk. Also, the Fehmarn Belt link with rail extensions to Copenhagen, Hanover and Bremen has been carried out. Other rail projects which have been achieved by 2020 are: Upgrading of the coast line from Kristianstad to Karlskrona. Upgrading of the mainline from Rostock to Berlin. Upgrading of the main line from Berlin to Sczcecin. Upgrading of the main line from Swinoujscie to Wroclaw Also connections to ports have been improved, this is particularly valid for Klaipeda, Liepaja and Kaliningrad (Baltijsk).

19 Scenario Analysis 18 Concerning the north-south relations the main axis Hamburg- Rhein/Main constitutes a major bottleneck. Apart from that no significant network bottlenecks are identified. Figure 3.6 Rail infrastructure projects, TREND scenario Ports Red lines indicate implemented rail projects in TREND scenario. Freight transport by ship has experienced a significant rise, too. Ports in the south of Sweden, especially Karlshamn, Trelleborg, Ystad and Malmö, have experienced large terminal investments in order to handle expanding amount of goods from rail and ship in an efficient manner. In Denmark only the ports of Copenhagen and Aarhus are influential players with respect to international ship transports. Other ports in Denmark, especially in the southern parts of Denmark, have not expanded due to competition from Copenhagen-Malmö Port, Swedish and German ports and the Fehmarn Belt fixed link. The proposed development of a major container hub in the south western part of Sealand or in the Fehmarn Belt south of Rödby has not materialized. In Germany the ports of Travemünde, Lübeck and Rostock have experienced major investments and operate as important gateways to the continent in the north-south relation. However, serious competition is experienced from the Polish ports located close to the German border like Szczecin and Swinoujscie, particularly because the railway linking Szczecin and Berlin has been reinstated and upgraded. As a result of the competiton from both the fixed link and the other ports the route between Trelleborg and Sassnitz has been closed down. In Poland the ports of Szczecin and Swinoujscie close to the border of Germany and Gdynia are playing important roles. Development of the

20 Scenario Analysis 19 Sea transport Travel time port of Gdynia as an important container hub in the south eastern part of the Baltic Sea has been concluded as part of the integration of Motorways of the Sea and land transport. This has also involved improvement of the hinterland connections. The port of Hamburg is still one of the most important key players in the sea transport system in 2020 and the envisaged enlargement of Bremerhaven is not affecting the overall picture of the distribution pattern in the northern parts of Europe, but has of course resulted in an increased competition in the area and lower handling prices as a consequence. Port development is taking place in Kaliningrad, Lithuania and Latvia. The need for a bigger capacity has been sparked by economic development in Russia. In Kaliningrad a deep-sea port at Vostochny (Baltiysk) has been developed mainly for ferry and container traffic. These types of traffic require fast turn-a-round times and that is not obtainable in the old port of Kaliningrad accessible only via a 42 km long and 9 m deep canal. Ferry transport between Baltijsk and Ust-Luga has increased in volume, and the other leg of the route (Baltijsk Mukran) is also of increasing importance. Other port development is typically linked to import or export of bulk goods like the oil terminals constructed in the Finnish Bay and at Butinge 35 km north of Klaipeda. In relation to port development it is also evident that hinterland connections to ports require attention. Access to the ports in Kaliningrad, Lithuania and Latvia has been improved both concerning roads and railways. Motorways of the Sea have been implemented providing an efficient connection from the Finnish Bay to Gdynia, and also providing flexible and guarded routes from the Finnish Bay to the North Sea. Goods by ship passing the Danish Straits and the Kiel Canal are about 550 m. tons per year corresponding to about 170,000 ships per year. Deepening of the Kiel Canal allowing an increase of the 2003 draught of 9.5 m to 10.5 m has diverted about 10% of the ships passing through the Danish waters to the Kiel Canal. The canal fees remain fixed. A possible deepening of the Drogden allowing draughts up to 9.5m from the existing 7.7 m has not yet been financed. A possible dredging and deepening of the canal leading to Kaliningrad may make Kaliningrad a more viable option for Russian import and export. Access to the Kaliningrad port is however a problem. Use of infrastructure Travel times have improved between Sweden, Denmark and Germany due to the Fehmarn Belt fixed link. Travel time by car and truck across land-based borders has also improved considerable. Travel times on the ferry links across the Baltic Sea have not changed. Therefore, in general

21 Scenario Analysis 20 Travel cost Infrastructure charges Regulations the relative time distance across the sea has increased in comparison with the non sea based time distance. Travel costs have increased for freight transport, both because a diesel price of EUR 1.6 per litre, and because of the user charges for heavy trucks of EUR 0.35 per km for trucks. The latter is only valid in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Poland and the Baltic States are still using a vignette, but are considering introducing an automatic user charge system. Infrastructure charges for the use of road, rail and ports and canals are now fully implemented. The high fuel costs combined with the CO 2 quota system has meant a dramatic increase in transport costs. This has resulted in difficult transport conditions for remote areas, and location close to important corridors has been more of a competition issue than it was in the beginning of the century. Road user charges have been extended to the complete network to avoid the negative effects of haulers trying to avoid payment of the motorway charges. Therefore, the use of main arteries and motorways are relatively cheaper than using the underlying network. This policy has concentrated the traffic on the main roads. Revenues from infrastructure charging are used as a general tax in Sweden and Denmark. In Germany, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia the revenue is being used for the transport sector. About 50% are used for improving the road infrastructure, whereas the remainder is used for improving conditions for inter modal transport. Rail infrastructure charges have been reduced in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania to cover only the marginal costs of use of infrastructure. This has increased the competitiveness of the railways. The use of infrastructure charging has improved the viability of the Motorways of the Sea. Another way of ensuring equal and fair competition between transport modes is enforcement of regulations. This is particular valid for the road haulage sector, but is also of overwhelming importance in the context of seaworthiness of oil tankers and other ships carrying dangerous goods. The railways are also maintaining a system of certifying rails and equipment in order for the equipment to pass borders and operate in other railway systems. Harmonisation of the rail sectors of different countries has not been fully accomplished in 2020, but a number of main lines have been certified for the most common types of equipment and unit loads. Enforcement policies within the road sector have been facilitated of GPS technology which makes it possible to automatic monitoring a huge number of lorries in context of driving times, speed limits and other traffic and regulation offences. This has further reduced the number of accidents involving heavy trucks.

22 Scenario Analysis 21 General Modal split Rail systems Toll collection systems Improve interoperability of transport systems Interoperability of transport systems is a requirement for changing the modal split from road based solutions to transport solutions involving other transport modes. Interoperability between sea transport and land based transport is established in ports. Slightly less than 40% of import and export to and from the Baltic Gateway countries is carried by ship. Due to construction of the Fixed Link across Fehmarn Belt, the infrastructure improvement program carried out in Poland and the Baltic States and the user charges levied on truck transport rail transport has been able to maintain its modal share of about 13% of the goods transport between the Baltic Gateway countries. Road transport has increased, but to a lesser extent than experienced in the period Road pricing and increased control of driving regulations have had a negative impact. Development of the rail sector has led to increasing (local) distribution from terminals. All together road transport has increased resulting in more congestion (despite road pricing), and road congestion is considered a serious bottleneck in In 2010 the use of modular carriage (25.5 m combinations) was allowed on specific links. In the Baltic Gateway area it is in all Sweden and on the motorway system in Denmark, between Travemünde/Lübeck and the port of Hamburg, between Berlin and Szczecin and between Gdynia and Gdansk. Rail transport is still suffering from lack of harmonisation and lack of interoperability. The mixture of passenger transport and freight transport is hampering the free flow of freight by rail. Also the different rail gauges applicable in the Baltic Gateway area makes the smooth operation of rail transport across the borders difficult. This problem is considerable between Poland on one side and the Baltic States and Kaliningrad on the other side. Freight freeways have been established between Riga, Warsaw and Katovice, between Szczecin and Berlin, between Gdynia and Katowice and between Rostock and Duisburg. Also a freight freeway has been established from Halsberg in Sweden to Hamburg and the Ruhr area via the fixed Fehmarn Belt link. From Rostock a rail service linking the Mediterranean and the Baltic Sea has been established and is in increased use. Other freight freeways are being negotiated between Klaipeda and Minsk, and Kaliningrad and Minsk. Route guidance, law enforcement and automatic road charge payments are now part of the operation of the on-board equipment installed in all trucks operating in EU. The implemented user charge collection systems have been established based on different systems. Germany is applying the Tollcollect system, and Denmark has implemented a similar system. Sweden Tango collect

23 Scenario Analysis 22 has been implemented in another system design. Other systems are also applied throughout Europe. Poland and the Baltic States are presently considering which system to introduce. Intermodal operation Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport In 2020 the transport business has been deregulated in all EU-countries. At the same time there has been a tendency to concentration. The transport scene is dominated by 5-6 big players, having established international networks comprising mainly logistical services related to transport chains and their execution. Haulers and other transport providers are contracted by the big logistic companies. Intermodal transport, both rail and ship, have increased considerably due to improved quality, efficiency and interoperability and thus a reduced price for transport compared to unimodal transports. The improved operations on the German rail network have been one of the major reasons for that. Intermodal operations have mainly been strengthened in north-south relations whereas the intermodal development in the west-east relation has been more modest because of strong competition from the trucking industry. Intermodal operations by rail in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Kaliningrad are hampered by an undermaintained infrastructure network. However, main lines running north - south and east west have been upgraded and provide an efficient network with terminals located in the main centres e.g. Gdynia, Poznan and Warsaw. EU regulations on railway operations have been implemented for a long time. However, harmonisation issues are still required to be solved particularly at the borders to Russia and Belarus to obtain a better intermodal operation. Already in 2003 an intermodal rail service connected Klaipeda and Odessa, and the development of trade up to 2020 has seen an intensified use of this corridor. Transports to and from Sweden are for a big part using ferries and RORO ships from south of Sweden to Germany or Poland, even though a Fehmarn Belt fixed link is present in High infrastructure charges and insufficient terminals in Denmark have kept many intermodal transports away from Denmark in the north-south relation. Increased rail transport (as a part of an intermodal transport) has been obtained through a successful development of efficient production systems to bundle volumes through gateways and hubs, i.e. fewer but more specialised terminals. As a result a concentration of rail freight goods have been experienced, and the transport is to be found in corridors where shuttle trains and block wagons are the dominating concept. Due to this specialisation and concentration of goods in corridors, the start/end distribution by (smaller) trucks has increased. Systems for better utilising spare capacity in trucks and ensuring an efficient pick-up and delivery system in distribution and consolidation haulage has added to the efficiency and thus to lowering costs of the transport chains. Also construction of major terminals has concentrated flows and provided better opportunities to utilise available capacity.

24 Scenario Analysis 23 Terminals Containerisation The change in trade structure has lead to an increased focus on major hubs in the south Baltic Sea. Container transport hubs have been developed in the Baltic Sea, and this has been combined with regular calls of intercontinental ships. Transport terminals are experiencing an increasing specialisation. This is mainly related to the type of equipment they are able to handle, and inter modal solutions to be presented at each terminal. An important aspect is concentration of flows in order to make terminal to terminal transport by rail operable. Transport terminals are also specialising in different fields. Among the specialisations are handling of dangerous goods, cold storage, and terminals serving one type of commodity or one type of store. Some transport terminals have grown to mega terminals. In order to create economic operations these terminals have established secondary hubs in which stripping of containers and other terminal facilities can be accommodated, and in order to move goods fast in and out of the mega terminals. Hamburg has developed to a mega terminal and Gdynia is also developing towards a mega terminal handling major shares of the north south goods flows in the eastern part of the Baltic Sea. Unfortunately, many terminals will be bottlenecks in this new set-up, since not all inter modal terminals have carried out sufficient investments in order to keep up to the increasing volumes. Containerisation is growing. Use of containers has now spread to a considerable amount of goods which previously was not considered fit for containerisation. However, the major part is continuously manufactured products. Containerisation is an advantage for intermodal transport, and therefore use of containers has been an important prerequisite for improvement of intermodal transport by rail. The use of 45 containers were abolished in the EU in However, after negotiations the use was again allowed in Use of combination of semi-trailers and rail wagons for intermodal transport has been supported by the Commission via the Marco Polo programme. In order to avoid road charges these types of transport have gained a visible market share on routes from Gdynia/Gdansk to the Warsaw and Katowice areas, and also on the routes from Rostock to the Berlin and Ruhr areas. 3.2 Liberalisation Scenario GNP growth Economic development. The Liberalisation scenario (LIB) is based on a development in EU promoting free market and free flow of goods, information and labour across the borders. Also quota systems and tariff walls are done away with. Therefore, EU is open to world market competition. This framework condition results in an economic development in the western part

25 Scenario Analysis 24 Trade Population of Baltic Gateway area of about 2.5 % annual increase in GDP, and a 6 % annual increase in GDP in the eastern part of the area. The world market is developing fast due to free market conditions. The cost effectiveness of investments ensures that production is carried out in areas and regions where there is a proper balance between labour force skills and salaries, availability of raw materials and energy and sufficient transport resources. Therefore, certain production industries have moved from the Baltic Gateway area to other parts of the world. Research and development, distribution and production of certain high value commodities are maintained or increased in the Baltic Gateway area. Ukraine and Belarus are negotiating association agreements with EU. The closer relationship with these two countries has increased trade flows between Poland, Lithuania and Germany on one side and Ukraine and Belarus on the other side. Compared to the TREND scenario trade in value between the Gateway countries has declined and makes up 15% of the countries total trade in value. Trade with non Gateway countries, particularly Ukraine and Belarus and countries in the third world, has grown fast. Intra Baltic Gateway trade volumes constitute about 260 m tons. Trade flows with other parts of the world are up to about 2,000 m tons. Valueweight ratio for goods traded between the Gateway countries is higher than it is for goods traded with other countries. This was also the case in the beginning of the century. Improvement of refinery capacity and improved extraction methods have resulted in a price of oil at 50 US$ per barrel in 2000 prices. New pipelines have been established between Russia and China. Oil volumes shipped through the Baltic area is at the same level as in TREND scenario, slightly less than 300 m tons per year Social development. Total population of the area is slightly higher than 23 m people. There has been a migration towards the area, because the area offers vivid historic cities with cultural events, a breathtaking nature along the coast line and in the sea lands in Mecklenburg, Brandenburg and Warmia- Mazuria. Some people like to escape from the congested living conditions in central Europe and settle in the more peaceful Baltic Gateway area. The socio-economic development has lead to dispersed location of settlements. Mobility is high and distance work has grown in importance. The increased population in rural areas has lead to new employment opportunities. This scenario is characterized thus by a more equal development between urban and rural population, and also between different groups in urban societies. Agriculture, particularly in Poland, is reorganised and productivity is increased strongly. Car ownership shows a strong increase in the area.

26 Scenario Analysis 25 Employment Car ownership Emissions Noise Accidents The socio-economic development has lead to a faster shift in employment from the primary economic sector to the tertiary economic sector. The free movement of labour has lead to a high mobility in the job market. Vacancies are filled quickly. Commuting increases, and this is true for both daily and other types of commuting facilitated by the free movement of labour. Wage differences are obvious in the Baltic Gateway area and there is a certain mobility towards the higher wages. Rural areas are used for agricultural business and particularly in the Polish regions of the Baltic Gateway area are a number of intensive production units established, like pig farms, chicken farms and milk farms. These farms create a solid income in the areas where they are located. A high share of jobs in the tertiary sector is related to research and development making the Gateway area an important centre for development in biotech, agrotech and transport and logistics. The higher income in the population creates basis for an increased import. However, also the construction sector supporting national demand is thriving. Income is increasing and fuel prices are stable compared to This has resulted in a total amount of vehicles in the Gateway area of about 15 m. and an average number of trips per person per day of 2.4. The carownership is particularly growing in Poland, and there is also a tendency to cars being bigger and thus more fuel consuming Ecological development. Manufacturers of vehicles are advancing the development of less polluting engines, but this is counteracted by relatively low fuel costs and a growing mobility on one side and number and size of cars on the other side. Low price of fossil fuel and growing demand for fast and efficient connections across the Baltic Sea has led to re-introduction of fast ferries on long distance trips across the Baltic Sea. Although technology has been improved compared to fast ferries from the beginning of the century the ferries use considerable more fuel than an ordinary ferry, thus increasing emission of CO 2. In general however, CO 2 emission in the Baltic Gateway area is considered at about the same level as in TREND, but transport is accounting for a bigger share (in total about 100 m. tons per year). Nuclear power is increasing its potential for the development of the Baltic Gateway area. New power plants are commissioned and old power plants are improved for a higher utilisation. Similar to the TREND scenario except traffic is increasing because the number of cars is 25% higher. This results in heavier noise loads. More roads are being subjected to speed limits. Number of accidents related to transport are higher than in the TREND scenario because of increased number of cars.

27 Scenario Analysis 26 General Öresund Germany Poland Eastern Gateway Baltic Sea Cohesion and trans-national co-operation The free flow of labour has led to an increase in the demand for border crossing transport. Use of car is more common than in the TREND scenario. This is also reflected in border crossing transport. It is more common to visit other neighbouring countries than in the TREND scenario. Tourism increases, both one day and multi day tourism. The uniform currency allows for easy comparison of prices and there are still good bargains travelling from one country to the other. The first transborder municipality has been created between Elsinore and Helsingborg. Train services in the Öresund area are maintained although patronage has fallen compared to the TREND scenario. In stead the number of cars using the Öresund fixed link and the Fehmarn Belt fixed link is and respectively per weekday. This is partly caused by the reduction of tolls reflecting that only maintenance and operation is being paid for by the motorists. This has on the other hand led to a sharp reduction in the car ferry transport between Elsinore and Helsingborg. The joint municipality of Elsinore Helsingborg are seeking state and EU support for the construction of a fixed link in order to knit the two communities closer together. The number of persons living on one side of Öresund and working on the other side has also increased. Only the Copenhagen Malmö Kristianstad link and the Copenhagen Malmö Helsingborg link have a viable passenger potential for a private operating rail link. Construction of a better road system around Szczecin and establishment of a tunnel between the two parts of Swinoujscie have created a better integrated transport system between Germany and Poland. This is being utilised and the traffic between Germany and Poland is increasing on the northern part of the border. The rail service between Szczecin and Berlin is more modest than in the TREND scenario. The tourism development in Warmia-Mazuria and in Kaliningrad has been facilitated by development of the road system. A number of bus services have been established, mainly linking urban areas in Kaliningrad with the main functional centres in Warmia Mazuria, Elblag and Olsztyn. The main road connecting Kaliningrad city with Gdansk via Elblag has been reconstructed. There are rather big flows of people working in one country and living in another country in the eastern gateway. The Fehmarn Belt link is growing in importance for both business and leisure trips. A certain interaction is also developed between the Öresund region and the universities in Kiel and Hamburg. Travel time between Gedser and Rostock has been reduced because the ferry port in Warnemünde has been reinstated, and two new high speed ferries are in operation cutting crossing time to 45 minutes. This has raised the number of travellers, and increased travel frequency between Copenhagen on one side and Rostock, Berlin, south Germany and the Czeck Republic on the other side.

28 Scenario Analysis 27 Use of fast ferries between Trelleborg and Rostock and Trelleborg and Neu Mukran has also reduced the travel time between Sweden and north Germany. This is also the case with the fast ferry operating between Gdynia and Karlskrona doing the trip in 6 hours. Low cost flights are extended compared to the TREND scenario. A number of routes are operated in the Baltic Gateway area. The close cooperation between the Copenhagen and Malmö airports has provided good opportunities for development of low-cost flights from the Öresund region to other important Baltic Gateway regions. Road infrastructure Improve accessibility Accessibility has two dimensions, one is to provide access to main functional centres, the other is to ensure sufficient access to remote areas. Infrastructure In the LIB scenario infrastructure is a public investment, while the maintenance and operation of the infrastructure is being paid for by the users. Mobility will increase both in terms of a higher car ownership than in the TREND scenario but also because higher income produces more trips. Infrastructure investments are carried out by public bodies. All types of investments compete for the public funds, and infrastructure investments are carried out if they are cost-effective in relation to other projects. Private projects are being carried out, e.g. the north south harbour tunnel in Copenhagen relieving congestion in Copenhagen. However, the main long distance road projects are carried out as public projects. EU has changed the structural funds to Infrastructure funds providing supporting finance to the execution of investment projects. This has created an important new source for financing infrastructure development. The Fehmarn Belt link has been carried out as a road-only project. The railway investment was not found feasible, and therefore the fixed link is a road project with a number of bus connections serving the two sides of the fixed link. The A27 providing an east of Hamburg connection across the river Elbe and the A20 providing an Elbe crossing west of Hamburg has relieved congestion for the transit traffic passing Hamburg. A new motorway is established from the A20 via Anklam and Swinoujscie to Koszalin where it meets Via Hanseatica from Szczecin to Gdansk which has also been improved to expressway status. Via Hanseatica is also extended from Elblag to Kaliningrad and further to Riga. The important agricultural production in Poland also demands an improvement of the the minor rural roads and this is being established.

29 Scenario Analysis 28 Figure 3.4. Road infrastructure projects, LIBERALISATION scenario Rail infrastructure Red roads are motorways and Yellow roads are expressways. Railroad development is slow in this scenario. Investment in rail infrastructure is expensive and the amount of traffic to serve has to be of an important size. The Baltic Gateway area does not provide the big population agglomerations for intensive rail operation. Operation on certain cross-border railway links has been taken over by private enterprises who are introducing specific measures to increase the patronage. Rail freight operation has been liberalised for many years. However, rail freight companies have not been successful entering the market, primarily because harmonisation and homologisation of railroads has been lacking behind. In the LIB scenario certain freight freeways have been developed by private investors, and the EU-Commission has eased approval procedures for railway operations. Freight freeways have been developed between Rostock and Duisburg, between Rostock and Munich and further to the Mediterranean via Berlin, between Gdynia and Katowice and further to the Mediterranean and between Klaipeda and Minsk and further to Odessa. A freeway from Swinoujscie to Poznan/Wroclaw and further to Kiev is being considered.

30 Scenario Analysis 29 Figure 3.7 Rail infrastructure projects, LIBERALISATION scenario Ports Sea transport Red lines indicates implemented rail projects. In order to improve competitiveness, freight transport is concentrated on major ports developing efficient connections to the hinterland. The small commercial ports have only a limited importance mainly as bulk ports, or as industrial ports linked to one or two companies using sea transport. Freight flows and passenger flows are bigger in this scenario than in the TREND scenario. It means that flows are concentrated to main ports in the Baltic Gateway area: Liepaja, Klaipeda, Gdansk, Gdynia, Szczecin, Rostock, Lübeck/Travemünde, Copenhagen Malmö port and Karlshamn. Beside flows are also concentrated on the important ferry ports in the area. Development of the ports in Szczecin and Gdynia has progressed faster than in the TREND scenario, and Gdynia is now the most important container port in the Baltic Sea. This development has further been enhanced by integration of the Baltic Motorway of the Sea with the ports of Gdynia, Szczecin, Rostock and Travemünde. The motorway of the Baltic Sea is being integrated with land transport and the Motorway of the Mediterranean through land transport connections in Gdynia, Szczecin, Rostock and Travemünde. In order to improve links across the Baltic Sea fast ferries have been introduced on a number of routes providing fast access particular between Poland and Sweden. Services are rather expensive, and are therefore only used for passenger transport. Freight transport is continuously using the ferry and RORO services operating in a dense network across the Baltic Sea.

31 Scenario Analysis 30 Travel time Travel cost Regulations General Modal split The route between Gedser and Rostock has been reinstated in its old pattern serving Warnemünde and Gedser. A motorway is leading direct to the ferry port of Warnemünde. Use of infrastructure Transport time with road has improved in comparison with the TREND scenario. Travel time for passenger transport across the Baltic Sea has improved considerable due to the use of fast ferries. Particularly on the link between Gedser and Rostock has travel time been reduced due to a move of the ferry port in Germany to Warnemünde and use of fast ferries. Transport costs for road transport are considerable lower than in the TREND scenario. Fuel price is about 1 EUR per litre diesel and the road charge is about 0.2 EUR per km. For rail the transport costs, however, is higher compared with the TREND scenario. Use of fast ferries is expensive. Therefore, the fast ferries are mainly used for passenger transport. Infrastructure is basically seen as a public good, but private financing and toll collecting is accepted in areas where public investment has other priorities or cost-effectiveness is failing. Development of a freight freeway based on PPP financing is being investigated from Kaliningrad via Vilnius to Minsk. In this corridor there are many congestion problems and the infrastructure in Kaliningrad Oblast is worn down. Another way of ensuring equal and fair competition between transport modes is enforcement of regulations. This is particular valid for the road haulage sector, but is also of overwhelming importance in the context of seaworthiness of oil tankers and other ships carrying dangerous goods. The railways are also maintaining a system of certifying rails and equipment in order for the equipment to pass borders and operate in other railway systems. Harmonisation of the rail sectors of different countries has not been fully accomplished in 2020, but a number of main lines have been certified for the most common types of equipment and unit loads. Enforcement policies within the road sector have been facilitated of GPS technology which makes it possible to automatic monitoring a huge number of lorries in context of driving times, speed limits and other traffic and regulation offences. This has further reduced the number of accidents involving heavy trucks Improve interoperability of transport systems Interoperability of transport systems is a requirement for changing the modal split from road based solutions to transport solutions involving other transport modes. Interoperability between sea transport and land based transport is established in ports. Low transport costs for road and slow development of interoperability in the rail system have favoured development of uni-modal transport by road. Ports are the main centres for import and export and rail develop-

32 Scenario Analysis 31 Rail systems Toll collection systems ment between ports and hinterland terminals have facilitated the fast move of goods from port areas to hinterland terminal areas. The Hamburg port is not able to handle all container based import and export to and from the Baltic Gateway area, and the freight transport industry has developed a very efficient freight freeway between Rostock and Duisburg. The development of the A20 has also provided an opportunity for road traffic to serve Bremerhafen in an easier way. Long distance land transport is carried out with trucks and it is allowed to use modular carriage with 60 tons, 25.5 m trucks on the motorway systems in the Baltic Gateway countries. Use of railway has dropped from 13% in 2003 to 7% in Change in socio-economy and production has led to a slight increase in bulk transport which has led to a decline in ships transport s share in the intra Baltic Gateway trade, from 40% to 30%. The extra Baltic Gateway trade however, is still mainly being carried by ship, which means ship transport overall has more than doubled its volume since Harmonisation of rail infrastructure has not succeeded in Wide gauge is still used in Lithuania and Latvia. A few operations have been eased, e.g. use of drivers from one country on other countries rail networks. The integration of the Motorways of the Sea has lead to privately established freight freeways serving Gdynia Katovice, Szczecin Poznan, Rostock Berlin Munich, and Travemünde Hamburg. Many different toll collection systems are in operation. No common guidelines have been agreed on. Therefore each country develops a system which is unique for this country. General collection systems are in operation in Germany, but in other countries the maintenance and operation of the infrastructure is paid via taxes and license fees related to the annual driving Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation The intermodal operations have been improved compared to However, the costs of truck transport make it very difficult to establish transport chains at a competitive price level. Therefore, intermodal transport has not developed much except in a few relations where congestion of the road network and related costs of waiting and delay makes it possible for intermodal transport to provide a better and more punctual service. Terminals Development of major transport terminals is carried out similarly to the TREND scenario. Terminals are placed close to main functional centres and close to major junctions in the motorway system, but locations in or close to ports are also important. A number of the big terminals are served by train, but the costs of providing unimodal transport make the rail solution less viable. A few terminals have developed into mega centres where the economy of scale has had a major impact on the development of services related to the terminals.

33 Scenario Analysis 32 Containerisation Sea transport and road transport are the two main types of freight transport and this has created a situation where the major parts of the Intermodal loading units applied are either sea containers of 40 or 45 or semi-trailers in land transport and RORO transport. Use of Swap bodies has almost disappeared. The semi-trailers applied in the corridors served by freight freeways are reinforced for easy transfer from road to rail. 3.3 Regulation Scenario GNP growth Trade Economic development. The regulation (REG) scenario assumes an active EU involvement in fulfilling the Kyoto sustainability targets concerning emission of green house gases and other emittants. Therefore, EU has agreed to regulate a number of activities in society which without regulation would jeopardize the general targets set up. EU has not agreed on the service directive and EU maintains trade restrictions against the outer world, which does not take the same interest in the Kyoto protocol. Based on this the development the GNP in the western part of the Baltic Gateway area is expected to grow with 1.5% per annum and in the eastern part of the area with 3% per annum. The fast industrialisation of India and China has resulted in a fast increasing oil price (110 US$ a barrel (2000-prices)). Introduction of a sustainable national and regional planning emphasizing the need to act environmentally sound in production, location and transportation has resulted in a different weighting of development initiatives. Germany and Poland uses the Euro. All the other countries use their local currencies. High oil price has led to considerable changes in the structure of world trade. The input of transport in commodities has decreased because the high price for transport and the EU trade restrictions. This has lead to goods being produced in the Baltic Gateway area maintain its competitiveness in relation to goods from third world countries. EU has not been extended but agreements of co-operation have been reached with Ukraine and Belarus. The main content of the agreements is that trade between the countries is liberalised, but certain types of goods, produced in a non-sustainable manner, is not allowed to pass without severe customs dues. Trade in volume between the Baltic Gateway countries has dropped because quite big volumes of oil and coal trade have disappeared. Volumes traded are down to 180 m tons or almost the level of Also trade with other countries has dropped to the level of 2003, about 1,300 m tons. Oil has become a relative expensive commodity and development of renewable energy sources has made a big leap forward, both in terms of many 6 MW wind mills established in the Baltic Sea, but also in terms of electricity generation by waves and tidal water. The priority is to phase out fossil fuel electricity plants. At the same time there is a politi-

34 Scenario Analysis 33 cal wish to phase out nuclear power generation. However, this has a second priority, but demand from the population makes ecological power generation look as the only viable alternative. CO2-emissions have been reduced drastically. Dependence on oil and coal has been reduced dramatically and the Russian oil trade via the ports in the Baltic Sea has dropped to about 100 m tons a year. The facilities in Ventspils and Butinge only serves the local demand for refined oil products. Population Employment Car ownership Social development. Population in the Gateway area is about 23 m people. The sustainable national and regional planning emphasizing the need to act environmentally sound in production, location and transportation has lead to development of sustainable urban areas. The emphasis on reduction of CO2 has lead to a concentration of population in sustainable urban areas with efficient public transport systems. Small urban areas lying outside the main areas see population decrease and a reduction of service. Agricultural production is regulated both in terms of use of land, the amount of animals per unit of land and use of pesticides. National and regional planning is very restrictive in allowing development of industries and other employment centres outside zones designated for the specific purpose. Location of employment clusters are sought to be as close as possible to areas with public transport. Commuting is not as significant as in TREND. A more uniform labour market with smaller differences in wages as compared to TREND and high transport costs create the basis for a commuting mainly carried out with public transport. Employment is shifting from the primary sector to the tertiary sector. Because of high transport costs local production is increasing in areas of a certain sustainable size. A high share of jobs is found in the public sector and in development of renewable energy sources. Eco-tourism at the coast of the area coupled with historic cities and beautiful sea regions attract visitors and create the basis for another important income source in the area. Unemployment has declined for the Gateway area seen as a whole in relation to 2003, unemployment is higher than in TREND (6% as against 5%). Particularly rural areas of the Polish regions, Lithuania and Latvia, have experienced only marginally reduced unemployment because of the transition from agriculture, mining and forestry to administration and services. This has, as indicated above, resulted in a growth in population and employment in the urban centres. Higher general costs have lead to a redistribution of household expenditures, leaving less room for purchase and use of vehicles. Passenger car ownership is back to the 2000 level overall, with about 9 m. passenger cars in the Baltic Gateway region and 10.6 m vehicles overall. Travel frequency per person is about 2 trips per person per day which is lower than in the TREND scenario. The car fleet contains about 10% emis-

35 Scenario Analysis 34 sion-free cars, mainly small cars applicable in urban transport and using either electricity or bio-fuel. General Emissions Noise Accidents General Öresund Germany Poland Ecological development. Fees and dues are regulating transport demand in the REG scenario and therefore use of cars has diminished relative to the TREND scenario. Emission free cars are paying fewer fees. Regulation of use and emissions from fuel is an important theme in society. Therefore, there is a high awareness of emissions of CO 2 and other harmful gases and particles. Filters are obligatory for both industries and vehicles and a number of both fiscal and other measures have been taken in order to cut the use of fuel and force through a change of technology. 10% of the vehicle fleet is powered by electricity or hydrogen. Emissions of CO 2 (about 55 m tons) and other gasses from road transport and ships are considerable reduced compared to TREND. Another emission reducing mean is the general speed limits of 100 kph for passenger cars and 70 kph for heavy vehicles introduced throughout the EU. Car ownership is lower than in the TREND scenario. Because of high costs of using cars roads are utilised much less than in the TREND scenario. This combined with the general reduction of driving speeds has lead to a dramatic reduction of traffic noise both along major roads and in urbanised areas. Number of accidents and transport related accident rates are lower than in the TREND scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation National public transport systems have been extended across the borders based on rail transport in case of big flows and on buses in other cases. Tourism has increased but because of high costs for using cars and air planes tourism has turned towards trains and buses. Persons commuting across Öresund in the public transport system is increasing and development of the Elsinore Helsingborg fixed link has increased commuting further. A total of 60 m people are travelling across Öresund each year. The Rail system connecting the Danish and the Swedish side of Öresund are being further extended, and construction of the rail link between Elsinore and Helsingborg has increased capacity of the Öresund rail system. The system is being supplemented with a fast train system connecting the Öresund area to Stockholm, Gothenburg, Oslo and Hamburg, the latter via the Fehmarn Belt fixed link. Border crossing public transport has been extended in comparison with the TREND scenario. The rail system on the island of Usedom is extended to the ferries connecting the two sides of the Swine river, thus making an easy transfer from the German to the Polish rail system in Swinoujscie. The Szczecin Berlin rail link is extended to include also Swinoujscie, creating a

36 Scenario Analysis 35 Eastern Gateway Baltic Sea Road infrastructure smooth operating system between Berlin and the Polish Baltic Sea coast. A major point of discussion has been a refurbishment of the Lithuanian and Latvian railway systems from the Russian wide gauge to the European normal gauge. This development is encouraged by EU, meaning a major reconstruction work on the railways in Latvia and Lithuania. This has left Kaliningrad as an island in the European rail system. A normal gauge transit line is built through Kaliningrad Oblast connecting the Baltic states with Poland on a direct link along the coast. Passenger operations have been resumed on the link between Kaliningrad city and Kaunas/Vilnius. The number of travellers is not impressive. Bus services supplement the rail services in directions where demand is limited. A new train system connecting Hamburg and Copenhagen has been established across the Fehmarn Belt fixed link, which has been opened for rail transport only. Travel time is reduced to 3 hours, and important links towards Kiel, Berlin and Rostock can be reached in Lübeck and Hamburg. Similarly, important links can be reached in Copenhagen towards the north. Development of ferry and RORO ship types which are less fuel consuming and less emitting has been speeded up. Therefore, the services operating on the Baltic Sea are less polluting than in 2003, but the operating speed is also lower than it was in Low cost flights are reduced to a minimum, but are still providing necessary services particularly for the business community Improve accessibility Infrastructure The sustainable society has prioritized introduction of traffic reducing measures in terms of road pricing. Road pricing is being collected by use of GPS, and price for using the network depends on the congestion level, time of day and geographical location. The economic growth facilitates development of transport infrastructure which supports sustainable transport. Also development of inter-modal transport modes are facilitated, particularly, development of ports. Road network development is not as fast as in the TREND scenario. Therefore, some of the expected road links in the TREND scenario will not be available by This is illustrated on the map overleaf. Some of the main projects not yet constructed are: The fixed road link across Fehmarn Belt A great number of planned Polish motorways and expressway including A2 from Katowice to Gdansk. Only parts of the Baltic motorway are constructed. A20 to the west of Lübeck and across the Elbe

37 Scenario Analysis 36 Private financing of infrastructure is part of this scenario. However, acceptance of projects eligible for private financing has to be found. The authorities are particularly keen on establishing environmental effects before an acceptance can be obtained. Figure 3.5. Road infrastructure projects, REGULATION scenario Rail infrastructure Red roads are motorways and yellow roads are expressways. Rail development has its focus on facilitating both passengers and trade flows. The rail link connecting Kristianstad and Höör in Scania has been carried out, as has improvement of the connection from Neu Mukran via Rostock to Lübeck and the link from Swinoujscie via Anklam to Greifswald.

38 Scenario Analysis 37 Figure 3.8 Rail infrastructure projects, REGULATION scenario Ports Sea transport Travel time Red lines indicate implemented rail projects. Port development is facilitating the rather dispersed production, resulting from high transport costs. This means that local ports are maintaining a certain importance as a base for import and export to and from the hinterland for the particular port. However, some ports have a much bigger hinterland, and this is obviously reflected in turnover of the ports. Motorways of the Sea have been implemented providing an efficient connection from the Finnish Bay to Gdynia, and also providing flexible and guarded routes from the Finnish Bay to the North Sea. Goods by ship passing the Danish Straits and the Kiel Canal are about 550 m. tons per year corresponding to about 170,000 ships per year. Deepening of the Kiel Canal allowing an increase of the 2003 draught of 9.5 m to 10.5 m has diverted about 10% of the ships passing through the Danish waters to the Kiel Canal. The canal fees remain fixed. A possible deepening of the Drogden allowing draughts up to 9.5m from the existing 7.7 m has not yet been financed. A possible dredging and deepening of the canal leading to Kaliningrad may make Kaliningrad a more viable option for Russian import and export. Access to the Kaliningrad port is however a problem. Use of infrastructure Transport time by rail has improved in comparison with the TREND scenario. Travel time by road has increased due to introduction of general speed limits in order to limit the use of fuel.

39 Scenario Analysis 38 Travel cost Regulations General Modal split The scenario shows improved access to the main functional centres, both in terms of rail transport and bus transport. Bus transport is also able to improve service to remote areas. Rail and inland waterway systems are being improved and promoted. Transport costs for road are considerable higher than in the TREND scenario. Fuel price for heavy road vehicles is about 2.5 EUR per litre while the infrastructure charge is about 0.5 EUR per km. Travel costs by rail has increased but service on the freight freeways has improved considerable, thus cost increases have been offset by improvement in precision in arrival etc. Another way of ensuring equal and fair competition between transport modes is enforcement of regulations. This is particular valid for the road haulage sector, but is also of overwhelming importance in the context of seaworthiness of oil tankers and other ships carrying dangerous goods. The railways are also maintaining a system of certifying rails and equipment in order for the equipment to pass borders and operate in other railway systems. Harmonisation of the rail sectors of different countries has not been fully accomplished in 2020, but a number of main lines have been certified for the most common types of equipment and unit loads. Enforcement policies within the road sector have been facilitated of GPS technology which makes it possible to automatic monitoring a huge number of lorries in context of driving times, speed limits and other traffic and regulation offences. This has further reduced the number of accidents involving heavy trucks Improve interoperability of transport systems Use of sea, inland waterway and rail transport is promoted in this scenario. Therefore, a widespread system of terminals has been developed in order to serve the need for long distance transport by ship and rail and short distribution transport by truck. No centres are mega centres, but the main ports are of major importance, providing main inlets into the area. However, a number of smaller ports are also serving both local and regional transport needs. Truck transport is on a much lower scale than it is in the LIB scenario. Modal share for rail transport has grown to 25%. Interoperability of transport systems is a requirement for changing the modal split from road based solutions to transport solutions involving other transport modes. Interoperability between sea transport and land based transport is established in ports. The continuous pressure to reach the targets in the Kyoto protocol has lead to increased interest in efficient utilisation of sustainable transport modes. The increased use of intermodal/combined transport has lead to an increase of the share of rail transport to 25 % in the Baltic Gateway area. Use of capacity management systems to improve (train) load fac-

40 Scenario Analysis 39 Rail systems Toll collection systems Intermodal operation Terminals Containerisation tors and more efficient production systems to bundle volumes are important parameters which has supported the development. Road transport s share of the intra Baltic Gateway trade has declined to 35%, while sea transport has maintained its share of 40%. The concept of a sustainable society facilitates development of multimodal infrastructure and concepts, which require public financing. Road pricing fees are being used for improvement of the most sustainable transport modes. Fast development of sea transport and harbours as well as multimodal links accessing them is prioritized. Interoperability in the rail network has been a success and efficient rail safety technology has improved capacity in rail networks. Many freight freeways have been established serving both the northern and southern side of the Baltic Sea. The competitive situation for rail is good because of high prices for road transport. A uniform toll collection system is being applied on all roads in EU. Income generated from this system is mainly used for improvement of sustainable transport modes and environmental standards including vehicle technology, terminals, rail transport and sea transport Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operations have increased to a high level due to changed cost structures for road, rail and sea transport, making costs of establishing transport chains economic favourable over using unimodal truck transport. The REG scenario is characterised by many small terminals. However, the major flows which also exist in the REG scenario are served by bigger terminals. Because there are many terminals a high degree of specialisation has come into existence. Therefore, there is also a variety of different players in the market co-operating around terminals. Terminals have a positive impact on the area in which they are located, they are adding value to the area. The 45 sea transport container has been abolished in European transport since Therefore the biggest sea transport container handled outside the ports is 40. The many freight freeways and the easy transfer between rail and road required in order to carry out the many transport by rail has led to an intensified use of swap-bodies and also of reinforced semi-trailers.

41 Scenario Analysis 40 4 SWOT analysis The SWOT analysis is established based on the indicators above. Indicators are for the three scenarios are compared to the situation in For each indicator a qualitative label is provided indicating whether the indicator is improving or not in comparison with the 2003 situation. The SWOT analysis is carried out on the Baltic Gateway area. The system however, can be used also on lower geographic levels which are: Port and cities, twinning arrangements, corridors and regions. Specific studies will be carried out on corridors and regions. 4.1 Sustainable development TREND LIB REG GNP growth Trade Population Employment Car ownership Reduction of emissions Reduction of noise Reduction of accidents Seen in context of sustainable development the TREND and LIB scenarios are best in terms of trade and positive effects related to increasing income. Therefore aspects like car ownership increases most in the LIB scenario providing an overall higher mobility to the population in the gateway area. Costs for economic development are an increase in emissions, and other related environmental indicators. The REG scenario uses taxes, fees and dues to reduce mobility and environmental indicators. This development is paralleled by a higher input into research and development of renewable energy sources.

42 Scenario Analysis Cohesion and trans-national co-operation TREND LIB REG General Öresund, road Öresund, rail Germany Poland, road Germany Poland, rail Eastern gateway Baltic Sea, road Baltic Sea, rail Baltic Sea, ferry Baltic Sea, air Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. This is evident because most of the countries are members of EU and co-operation agreements has been made with Russia facilitating easy transfer across the borders to Kaliningrad for passengers and goods. Looking at the details in the scenarios there are differences between TREND, LIB and REG. The LIB scenario has got the most positive consequences for road, air and ferry transport. Number of departures is higher than in the other scenarios and travel time is reduced for transport across the Baltic Sea because fast ferries are being used for transport. In the REG scenario ferry traffic remains at the 2003 level. The majority of the border crossing travellers with road, rail and ferries are either holiday makers or shopping tourists. In the LIB scenario, however, the free movement of labour across the borders in EU create a high mobility in the labour force, which also results in a higher commuting, both daily and weekly. In the Öresund region the number of commuters is substantial in all scenarios. In the LIB scenario a new cross border municipality has been created between Elsinore and Helsingborg, boosting transport across Öresund even further. In the REG scenario commuting between Denmark and Sweden has been further enhanced by extension of the rail system including a new tunnel between Elsinore and Helsingborg and reduced travel time between Helsingborg and Copenhagen. The REG scenario envisages a decline in air transport compared with 2003 between the two sides of the Baltic Sea. The LIB scenario sees the opposite development with a multitude of low cost airline departures serving the Gateway area.

43 Scenario Analysis Improve accessibility TREND LIB REG Road infrastructure Rail infrastructure Ports Sea transport Travel time savings, road Travel time savings, rail Travel cost savings, road Travel cost savings, rail Regulations In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. As for port development the LIB scenario foresees development concentrated on a few important ports, where the REG scenario foresees a more evenly spread development. The development of the infrastructure leads to a decrease in travel time, and therefore travel time savings compared to 2003 in the TREND scenario. Because of congestion in the road network, mainly close to the main functional centres the LIB scenario foresees travel times comparable to the TREND scenario even though the network has been extended. Travel time in the road system in the REG scenario is expected to increase compared to 2003, leading to negative travel time savings. The reason is the introduction of general speed limits of 100 kph for passenger cars and 70 kph for trucks on the motorways mainly to save fuel and reduce noise emission from tyres and engines. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but in LIB at a level comparable to Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Number of departures are highest in the REG scenario indicating the biggest travel time savings overall, particularly because waiting and transfer times are reduced for passengers and because a multitude of dedicated freight transport lines are being developed and utilised for freight transport. In the LIB scenario dedicated services are also envisaged but only in a small scale in the most heavy transport corridors, e.g. Berlin Hamburg and Rostock Ruhr. In this

44 Scenario Analysis 43 scenario rail services have to compete with both cheap airlines and cheap road transport. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Port and sea transport development is quite similar in the three scenarios, except fast ferries are in operation across the Baltic Sea in the LIB scenario. This improves travel time considerable for passenger transport. In the REG scenario emission from ferries and RORO-ships are considerable lower than in the TREND scenario. 4.3 Improve interoperability TREND LIB REG Modal split, more rail transport Rail systems Compatibility of toll collection systems Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. Interoperability is related to intramodal and intermodal operability. Intramodal operability is related to harmonisation across borders of operation of a particular transport mode. Intramodal operability for rail relates to harmonising gauge width and profiles, safety and security systems, education, insurance, etc. Harmonisation of rail operations is assumed to be improved in all scenarios, but the most efficient and adequate harmonisation is assumed in REG, where undisturbed rail operation is assumed across borders. As the road transport sector applies ICT in increased proportion there develops a need for intramodal operability concerning software and hardware for toll collection, speed and rest time recordings, transfer of engine data etc. In the TREND scenario 2003 conditions are prolonged into the future with few major suppliers of onboard units and related software. In the LIB scenario a development is foreseen where a number of different suppliers are working in the market, developing many different applications. In the REG scenario the development of hard and software is carried out in a joint government effort in EU, ensuring full compatibility between systems and applications. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail and sea mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail and sea mode increases its share in the REG scenario.

45 Scenario Analysis Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport TREND LIB REG Intermodal operation Terminals Containerisation Intermodal operation in the different scenarios has been mentioned in the chapter above. The main aspects of intermodal operation is availability of intermodal services in the rail and sea transport networks, terminals for transfer of loads, and effiecient intermodal load units (ILU) which can easily be transferred from one mode to another mode. In the TREND scenario a certain development of new terminals has been assumed. In the LIB scenario the freight flows are concentrated on major terminals which it is assumed to be constructed at ports and close to ports in the hinterland or in other main centres where transport flows in different directions meet. Number of terminals compared with 2003 is expected to decrease but turnover per terminal is expected to increase considerable. In the REG scenario an opposite development direction is assumed, based on small to medium sized terminals located close to production and consumption markets and with good and efficient access for rail, inland waterway and sea transport where appropriate. Containerisation is assumed to increase in all scenarios. In the LIB scenario the 45 container is the preferred box size. Possibility of using modular haulage has made the transport of this container easier by road.

46 Scenario Analysis 45 Annex 1. Summary table of scenarios This annex provides a summary table where the different aspects of the scenarios are shortly repeated. Existing (2003) TREND LIB REG Sustainable development GNP growth 2 % p.a. in west, 5 % p.a. in east 2.5 % p.a. in west, 6 % p.a. in east Oil Price per barrel 40 US $ 80 US $ 50 US $ 110 US $ Currency Mixture EURO EURO Mixture Restrictions on Yes Yes No Yes trade Intra BG trade (m tons) Extra BG trade (m. 1,225 1,600 2,000 1,300 tons) % of trade in value being intra BG Oil transit (m. tons) Population (m.) Unemployment 8 % 5 % 3 % 6 % 1.5 % p.a. in west, 3 % p.a. in east Vehicle fleet (m m m m m. vehicles) Of which passenger 9.0 m m m. 9.0 m. cars (m.) Adherence to Kyoto No No No Yes protocol Emissions CO 2 70 m. tons 80 m. tons 100 m. tons 55 m. tons Noise Base level high very high Unchanged Accidents Base level low unchanged very low Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Structural funds available Increased infrastructure funds available Yes Yes No Yes No No Yes No Labour force Base level unchanged very high Low across borders Tourism Base level high very high Unchanged Öresund, m. travellers Germany - Poland Base level Improved rail operation Berlin Szczecin As TREND + Road tunnel and motorway Swinoujscie Anklam As TREND + improved rail operation Swinoujscie Anklam - Greifswald Eastern Gateway Base level Baltic Sea Base level Fehmarn Belt road Fehmarn Belt road Fehmarn Belt rail +

47 Scenario Analysis 46 Improve accessibility Road infrastructure Rail infrastructure Ports Sea Transport and rail TEN-T priority program, BVWP necessary and international projects, Polish road development plan, Swedish road investment plan, Danish investment plan TEN-T priority program, BVWP necessary and international projects, Polish rail development plan, Swedish rail investment plan, Danish investment plan Investments in Karlshamn, Trelleborg, Ystad, CMP, Lübeck/Travemünde, Rostock, Neu Mukran, Szczecin, Swinoujscie, Gdynia, Gdansk, Baltiysk, Klaipeda, Liepaja Motorways of the Baltic Sea integration in Gdynia, deepenig of Kiel + improvement Gedser Warnemünde and fast ferries As TREND + A20 Lübeck Elbe Crossing, Greifswald Koszalin, Via Hanseatica (Szczecin Gdansk - Kaliningrad Riga) Swinoujscie Szczecin Poznan, Gdansk Katowice, Part of Baltic Rail in Poland and Lithuania Concentration on main ports. Ferry route Sassnitz Trelleborg is abolished. As TREND + integration of MOS in Szczecin, Rostock and Travemünde. Canal. Travel time Base level Reduced Reduced for road in comp. with TREND Diesel price (EUR per litre) Road toll (EUR per km) in DE, 0.02 in DK and SE (Vignette) DE, DK, SE, 0.05 PL, LA, LT (Vignette) new cohesive rail operation system SE, DK, DE, PL Most important TEN-T roads, BVWP necessary projects, agreed Motorway extension projects around Copenhagen As TREND + Elblag - Kaliningrad Vilnius, Swinoujscie Greifswald, Neu Mukran Rostock Lübeck, Höör Kristianstad, Ystad Malmö Investments are spread over all ports in the BG area. As LIB Increased for road in comp. with TREND, reduced for rail 0.20 in all EU 0.50 in all EU Rail charges Base level Reduced to marginal As TREND As TREND costs Subsidies for alternative Yes Yes No Yes modes Regulations Base level Increased control As TREND As TREND Improve interoperability of transport systems Modal split Between BG countries: Sea: 40% Rail: 13% Road: 47% Between BG countries: Sea: 40% Rail: 13% Road: 47% Between BG countries: Sea: 30% Rail: 7% Road: 63% Between BG countries: Sea: 40% Rail: 25% Road: 35% Rail system gauge DK, DE, SE, PL: DK, DE, SE, PL: DK, DE, SE, PL: DK, DE, SE, PL,

48 Scenario Analysis 47 Normal normal, LA, LT, RU: Wide LA, LT, RU: Wide Freight freeways Riga Warsaw Katovice, Szczecin - Berlin, Gdynia Katovice and Rostock - Duisburg, Halsberg Ruhr Toll collection systems 2 3 Different systems Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation Base Level Improved DE rail operation Increased North south IM traffic Increased IM traffic Klaipeda Odessa Intercontinental container lines from Gdynia Terminals Base level Concentration of flows in main terminals and ports. Development of mega-terminals in Hamburg and Gdynia. Specialization of certain terminals Containerisation Base level Increasing containerisation also of bulk products. Use of 45 sea containers. IM transport with semi-trailers has gained market shares. Normal LA, LT, RU: Wide Gdynia Katovice, Rostock - Duisburg, Halsberg Ruhr Country specific systems Transport chain costs higher comp. to TREND, unimodal costs lower. As in TREND, location of terminals in ports and in major motorway junctions. Many ILU types, overweight of 40 and 45 sea containers and semitrailers in IM LA, LT: normal, RU: Wide Riga Warsaw Katovice, Szczecin - Berlin, Wroclav Szczecin - Ystad - Copenhagen, Gdynia Katovice and Rostock - Duisburg, Halsberg Ruhr and a number of others Uniform system over Europe Transport chain costs lower comp. to TREND, unimodal costs higher. Many terminals, specialization. Many market players. Swap-body and semi-trailers are widely used. 40 container is the biggest allowed in Europe.

49 Scenario Analysis 48 Annex 2: Description of base level

50 Scenario Analysis 49 1 Description of base line This appendix describes the base line for the scenarios. The base line relates to available data for The scenarios are described taking into account the complete area of analysis. The geographical coverage is indicated on the map in figure 2.1. Figure 1.1. Map indicating the geographical coverage of the Baltic Gateway Project. In details the project covers following geographical areas: Baltic Gateway partner ports and cities: Sweden Karlskrona, Karlshamn, Ystad, Trelleborg

51 Scenario Analysis 50 Germany Travemünde, Lübeck, Rostock, Sassnitz/Neu Mukran, Poland Szczecin/Swinoujscie, Gdansk, Gdynia Russia Baltijsk Lithuania Klaipeda Latvia Liepaja Special focus on the Baltic Gateway twinning arrangements between: Karlskrona-Gdynia Karlshamn-Klaipeda Trelleborg-Rostock Ystad-Swinoujscie Specific transport corridors: Copenhagen-Karlskrona-Klaipeda-Minsk Copenhagen-Gedser-Rostock-Berlin-Prague Copenhagen-Malmö-Ystad-Szczecin-Wroclaw Administrative regions in the South Baltic Sea area: Sweden Blekinge, Skåne, Kalmar, Kronoberg Denmark - Copenhagen, Storström, West sealand Germany - Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Berlin-Brandenburg Poland - Western Pomerania, Pomerania, Warmia-Mazuria Russia Kaliningrad Lithuania Vilnius, Klaipeda, Kaunas Latvia Kurzeme region SBSa as a whole The gateway function

52 Scenario Analysis 51 2 Data elements 2.1 Socio-economic data elements Socio-economic data has been obtained from national statistical bureaus in the SBSa, and from other available sources. In all the SBSa countries, databases comprising regional data are available at varying levels of geographic detail. The maximum level of geographic detail used for the indicators (e.g. population) is LAU1 (former NUTS4), except for Germany, where NUTS3 is the highest level of detail publicly available from the DESTATIS office. This results in a division of the SBSa into approximately 60 sub-regional units. Socio-economic forecasts have been obtained mainly from regionally supported studies, i.e. for regional population. Population The chosen data elements for population are: Population per sub-region Population development per sub-region Urban and rural population The population development experienced from 1998 to 2003 shows two different directions in the western and in the eastern part of the Gateway area, as indicated in Figure 2.1.

53 Scenario Analysis 52 Figure 2.1. Population development by subregion in the Gateway area, In west, there is a population increase. The increase is concentrated in the Öresund region and in the greater Hamburg area in south Holstein. Also smaller urban centres in the vicinity of Berlin experience a population growth. Mecklenburg Vorpommern, West Pomerania, Pomerania and Warmia-Mazuria experience decline in the population. The big cities in the region, particularly the major conurbation Gdansk/Gdynia and Szczecin have growing population figures. The fast change of employment from the primary sector to the tertiary sector provides the basis for an influx to the cities and their suburbs and a decline of population in the countryside. The same picture is repeated in Lithuania, however only Vilnius and Kaunas have positive population development. Economy The chosen regional economic data elements are: Production (Regionalised GDP, adjusted for purchasing power differences) Unemployment rate per sub-region Employment rate per sub-region

54 Scenario Analysis 53 Employment by industry sector Figure 2.2. Regionalised GDP per capita 2002, adjusted by Purchase Power Parity. It is evident that there is a definite distinction between Sweden, Denmark, Schleswig-Holstein and Berlin on one side, and the other regions in the Baltic Gateway area on the other side. The further east the less is the GDP/capita compared to the EU25 index of 100. Vilnius is an exception, with a GDP per capita at the same level as in the East German states. Table 2.1. Labour force, unemployment and employment ratio for the Baltic Gateway countries, Labour force Unemployment Employ/pop ratio Sweden 4,450, % Denmark 2,860, % Germany 42,630, % Poland 16,920, % Kaliningrad n.a. n.a. Lithuania 1,640, % Latvia 1,180, % In the regional context unemployment is very high especially in Western Pomerania, Pomerania, and Warmia-Mazuria, with more than 20% unemployment rate.

55 Scenario Analysis 54 In eastern Germany, Berlin has also an unemployment rate of 20%, and both Mecklenburg- Vorpommern and Brandenburg have unemployment rates above 15%. In Poland and Germany, the unemployment is especially high among women and youth. The best situation can be found in the Swedish and Danish parts of the SBSa, with unemployment rates below 5%. (Source: Eurostat Yearbook 2004). The employment is distributed on agriculture, industry and services in the Baltic Gateway countries as indicated below (2003). Table 2.2. Employment by Baltic Gateway country and economic sector, Primary trades Secondary trades Tertiary Trades Sweden 2.4% 23.3% 74.4% Denmark 3.3% 22.5% 74.1% Germany 2.4% 27.8% 69.7% Poland 19.3% 28.6% 52.0% Kaliningrad Lithuania 17.6% 27.5% 54.9% Latvia 15.1% 24.4% 60.5% The primary trades include agriculture, forestry, fishery and extraction of natural resources (mining and quarrying). The secondary trades include industry and public supply services (e.g. electricity production). The tertiary trades include transport, commerce, and public and private services. Figure 2.3. Regional employment by sector, 2003 The regional employment data by trade indicate that employment in the tertiary sector is overrepresented in relation to the national average in West Pomerania, Pomerania and Warmia-Mazuria, and that employ-

56 Scenario Analysis 55 ment in primary trades are underrepresented. In Germany employment in the tertiary sector is overrepresented in Schleswig-Holstein and Berlin, while employment in Mecklenburg Vorpommern and in Brandenburg almost follows the national average, however, with a slightly higher employment rate in agriculture and forestry. Balance data elements The data elements chosen for the balance objective are: Population per age group and sub-region. Population per gender and sub-region Female employment rate Regional differences in population and economic development. With a balanced age structure the economically active population should be able to economically support children, students, retired and other economically inactive. The SBSa, like the rest of Europe, is facing a challenge when the share of older population increases. In the Baltic Gateway area, the highest shares of older population can be found particularly in the Swedish part, but also Germany and Denmark have high shares. Further, shares of older people are growing rapidly in Sweden and in eastern Germany, mainly due to low fertility rates and low migration. The eastern Baltic Gateway regions have relatively low shares of older population, but particularly Latvia and Lithuania have rapidly growing shares of older population. Female employment is high in Denmark, Sweden and Germany and somewhat lower in Poland, Latvia and Lithuania. Car ownership rates The accessibility to cars shows the same pattern as the economic indicators, see Figure 2:2, with a relatively sparse, but rapidly increasing car fleet in the eastern parts of the area and high car ownership rates in the western parts. The number of passenger cars in Poland has increased by in average 5% annually since between 1992 and 2003, but Poland still has only 294 cars per 100 inhabitants, which is less than half the car ownership rate of Germany. Looking at the rapid increase of car ownership in eastern Germany since the reunification, Poland may also follow that trend after the inclusion in the EU. Compared to the economy of the countries, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia already have more cars per GDP unit than then European average. Based on the regional available data on carownership and vehicle fleets it can be estimated that the total amount of passenger cars in the Baltic Gateway area is about 9 m. vehicles and the total vehicle fleet is about 10.6 m. vehicles. The difference comprises mainly small commercial vehicles and small trailers. Big trucks, trailers and semis are making up about 4% of the total vehicle fleet.

57 Scenario Analysis 56 Figure 2.4. Increase of car ownership rate in the SBSa countries. 2.2 Trade and traffic flows Trade and transport flows Trade and transport flows are important data elements for description of cohesion of countries. Trade flows in the south Baltic Area have been established in the work report 1: The Sea transport infrastructure. This report assesses the total intra trade flow between the South Baltic Sea countries to about 158 million tons in 2001, and the trade with the surrounding countries to about 1,225 million tons. It should be remembered that important countries like Germany, Poland and Russia have other borders than those skirting the Baltic Sea. Trade between regions in the South Baltic Sea area is obviously of a much lesser extent than the total trade between the Baltic Gateway countries. Further regional trade data does not exist in any statistical yearbook. Therefore available data from goods transport models can provide a certain framework for the goods transport. Trade between neighbouring regions are often more developed than trade between regions located far from each other. Therefore, trade between East Denmark and Schleswig-Holstein, Mecklenburg Vorpommern and Brandenburg is more developed than between East Denmark and Bayern. This is also true to a certain extent for Scania and Blekinge. However, at the same time the tendencies of concentration and globalisation are gradually producing trade flows distributed more evenly across the countries. At the same time there is a change in commodity flows. As manufacturing of raw materials becomes a process requiring both energy and hu-

58 Scenario Analysis 57 man power at a low cost these processes move to areas with low wages. Therefore, during the last 10 years production in Europe has been moving towards east, and long distance haulage of manufactured and semimanufactured products has become part of every day life. Recent studies of the trade flows in tonnes like the TEN-STAC, the Capacity 2015 and the Chelem model have indicated a strong growth in commodity groups well adapted for unitised transport. Percentage of trade per region within the Baltic Gateway region As already indicated it is not possible to establish trade data per region. However the trade between the main countries in the region is established in following table based on the OECD trade statistics. Table 2.3. Distribution of trade among the SBS-countries, 2003, based on trade in value (US $). Country Trade in US $, 2003 Trade with SBS countries (% of total trade) Trade with Germany (% of total trade) Trade with Poland (% of total trade) Trade with Sweden (% of total trade) Trade with Russian Federation (% of total trade) Germany 1,350 8% - 3% 2% 2% Poland % 28% - 3% 5% Sweden % 14% 2% - 1% Russia % 11% 4% 2% - Denmark % 20% 2% 12% 1% Lithuania 19 49% 14% 5% 4% 18% Latvia 18 50% 16% 4% 8% 8% Source: OECD trade statistics, 2003 It is evident that the smaller the countries are, the more do they trade in the neighbourhood. Germany is by far the most international of the countries, exchanging only 8% of their trade with the other SBS countries. 20% of the Russian Federation trade takes place with the SBScountries. For Sweden it is 26%. About 50% of the Lithuanian and Latvian trade take place with the SBS-countries.

59 Scenario Analysis 58 Figure 2.5. Trade flows in billion US $ between Baltic Gateway countries Looking at the volumes there are clear indications that the volumevalue ratio is much higher for export from Latvia, Lithuania and Russia than from the other countries. This indicates that the exports from the mentioned countries are mainly bulk products of low value, whereas the opposite is the case for export from Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Poland is in between. In 2001 the total intra Baltic Gateway trade amounted to 158 M tons. Port turnover The port turnovers in the Baltic Gateway area have been indicated in the report Geography of flows in the South Baltic Sea area and their implications for regional growth.

60 Scenario Analysis 59 As is clearly illustrated above the main ports in the area for dry bulk are Szczecin, Gdansk, Ventspils and Rostock. The main wet bulk ports are Gdansk, Ventspils and Butinge and finally, most important container port in the area is Gdynia. Transport flows in tons by commodity group The main transport flows are as already indicated between neighbouring countries and regions, and the most important flows in the area are oil transport from Russia to Germany and Poland and considerable amounts of dry bulk in terms of coal between Russia and Poland. The trade between Russia and Germany is the biggest trade flow in tonnes, mainly because of the import from Russia of almost 40 m. tons of oil, gas and coal. Another important flow is import to Germany from Poland where the total amount is well above 23 m. tonnes in % of this import is coal and oil, and 20% are machinery and other manufactured products. Other main flows in the region are import to Poland from Germany (7.9 m. tons) of which almost 40% are semimanufactured and manufactured products, Export from Sweden to Germany (5.1 m. tons of iron ore, 3.7 m. tons of manufactured products), import to Sweden from Russia (7.9 m. tons of which 5.3 m. tons are oil and gas).

61 Scenario Analysis 60 Use of modalities The main modalities in transport between the countries are ship, pipe and truck. The railway transport is very limited. The following table illustrates the development in trailer transports across the south Baltic Sea from 1990 to Table 2.4. Development in trailer transport across the south Baltic Sea, No. of lorries DK DE (%) SE DE (%) SE PL (%) In the period from the number of trucks, trailers and other units on the ferries operating between the north and south shore of the Baltic Sea has more than doubled. At the same time there has been a change of the route choice from the traditional shortest routes between Denmark and Germany and Sweden and Germany towards other routes indicating the emergence of new markets and new trade patterns. The routes between Denmark and Sweden on one side and Germany on the other side carried 89% of the truck traffic in the south Baltic Sea in 1990, but only 60% in The use of the Swedish - Polish routes has almost doubled (from 7% to 12%) and other routes have developed from a market share of 4% in 1990 to 28% in The development of rail wagons transferred across the south Baltic Sea has shown a steep decline from 281,000 wagons in 1990 to 110,000 in The main reason is the rerouting of rail wagons via the Great Belt and the Öresund fixed link. The number of wagons transferred on the German Swedish and German - Polish routes in 1990 and 2004 there has been a decline from 151,000 wagons to the mentioned 110,000, a drop above 25%. Rail transfer on the Ystad Swinoujscie route has remained almost unchanged since 1990, while the route via Sassnitz in particular has lost traffic. There are reasons to believe the development in rail transport has not been able to keep the pace compared with road transport. Total rail transport between Scandinavia and the Continent has been reduced from about 10 m. tons in 1990 to about 8 m. tons in Market conditions have changed and rail transport has been submitted to stronger competition from the road transport sector. Further, the rail infrastructure is in poor condition due to lack of resources for the maintenance and upgrading of the important routes. In all regions in the Baltic Gateway does truck has a dominant position for the internal distribution and consolidation of goods. Ship is not a main transport mode in the national transport, although a certain amount of ship transport is carried out particularly in Germany from the Baltic Sea coast via the Kiel Canal to the North Sea ports. Rail has also a significant importance in national transportation in Germany and Poland particularly of major quantities of bulk products like coal, oil, iron

62 Scenario Analysis 61 ore, etc. But the main growth is related to commodity groups of manufactured or semi-manufactured goods, which require the use of trucks. Passenger flows between regions Passenger flows between the regions are obviously rather important within the national transport systems. Passenger flows across the borders are limited, with an exception between Denmark and Sweden, where the number of border crossing passengers in 2004 amounted to more than 28 m. passengers. In the report on Geography of the flows in the SBSa following map is being presented concerning the trans-national passenger flows across the Baltic Sea and the Öresund. Figure 2.6. Passenger flows across the Baltic Sea, 2003 A comparison of the development from 2002 to 2003 show the following picture.

63 Scenario Analysis 62 Figure 2.7. Changes in passenger flows on the routes in South Baltic Sea. Most of the routes crossing from Scandinavia to the continent remain stable, that is, within ±10% in passenger loads from 2002 to However the routes between Trelleborg and Mecklenburg Vorpommern have experienced an increase above 10%. This is also the case with the routes between Copenhagen and Gdynia, and between Karlshamn and Klaipeda. Looking at the development from on the ferry routes crossing the south Baltic Sea following picture emerge Table 2.5. Development in passenger transport across the south Baltic Sea, No. of pax (m.) DK DE (%) SE DE (%) SE PL (%) There is a rather stable pattern in passenger transport across the south Baltic Sea. The effect of removal of tax free sales in 1999 is obvious, and the effect of the tight competition between different routes across Öresund combined with cheap tickets on the Rödby Puttgarden ferry is also seen. The most important aspect however, is the growth of passenger transport on other routes than the Danish - German and Swedish German routes. From a market share of 6% in 1990 these have grown to 13% in 2004 indicating a possible future slightly more diversified travel pattern.

64 Scenario Analysis Infrastructure and transport Infrastructure has been described in the basis for the Quick Start Programme. However, based on available data on the road network and the rail network following very broad data concerning the infrastructure can be established. Figure 2.8. Infrastructure in the Baltic Gateway area, 2001 Based on the map of road infrastructure the km of motorways and other roads can be accounted for in Table 2.6. Km of motorways, other important roads and roads in the Baltic Gateway area, 2001 Other important Motorways (km) roads (km) Germany 1,884 20,376 Denmark 369 2,641 Lithuania 386 6,973 Latvia 0 1,108 Poland 21 15,302 Russia 0 3,166 Sweden ,564 Total 2,956 64,130 Development of the road infrastructure is being carried out fast at present, and therefore the length of motorways has already improved further.

65 Scenario Analysis 64 Table 2.7. Km of main railways and other railways in the Baltic Gateway area, 2001 Railways (km) Germany 7,290 Denmark 897 Lithuania 783 Latvia 87 Poland 5,054 Russia 666 Sweden 1,508 Total 16,285 The seaways in the Baltic Gateway area are dominated by the main Baltic Sea route, allowing drafts of up to 19 m. Ships of this size can pass through the Great Belt (the T-route). The other main accesses to the Baltic Sea are via Öresund (allowed draught 7.7 m) and the Kiel canal (allowed draught 10.5 m). The distribution of traffic in 2000 through the accesses is roughly 20,000 vessels in Great Belt, 40,000 vessels in Öresund and 40,000 vessels in the Kiel Canal. Inland waterways play a role in the Baltic gateway area. Most important are the use of the rivers Elbe, Odra and Wisla and the canals in Germany and Poland (e.g. Trave Elbe canal, Mittelland canal, Ober Havel canal, Gdansk Bydgoszcz canal). Port characteristics The ports in the Baltic Gateway area comprises a wide variety of ports, some being the main import and export ports of the countries, and other serving more regional purposes. In total there are 61 ports in the Baltic Gateway area. 17 of these ports have one or more ship calls per day in average. 16 of the ports are also designated ferry and RORO terminals. Further 3 ferry ports with no other commercial traffic have been identified. The Butinge terminal is the port receiving the biggest ships with a size of more than DWT in average. In Butinge, Ventspils and in Gdansk is the allowed draught 15 m. Ownership of infrastructure The road infrastructure and the rail infrastructure are in general owned and operated by public bodies like the state, the regions and the municipalities. There are a few road links privately owned and operated, and this is also true for rail tracks. However sidings are more often privately owned, connecting industrial or terminal areas with the main infrastructure. A few pieces of infrastructure are owned and operated by private companies, some however with state participation. This accounts for the Great Belt fixed link and the Öresund fixed link. The Warnow tunnel and motorway is owned and operated by a fully private company.

66 Scenario Analysis 65 In Germany the toll charging system is operated by a private company on behalf of the government. This organisational model is expected to develop further in the future. The majority of the ports are owned by municipalities or regions in which they are located. Some ports, mainly ferry ports or ports serving a specific type of good are privately owned. The port operation is in general subcontracted to stevedoring and other handling agents which in general are private companies but sometimes publicly owned. Ferry routes linking the infrastructure on the sides of the Baltic Sea are in general owned by private companies. A number of routes are served by former state owned ferry companies, now united in Scandlines and Scandlines Hansa owned by different public bodies in Denmark, Germany and Sweden Accessibility in time and cost between sub-regions The distance in time and costs between main areas in the Baltic Gateway area is established based on the networks above and on assumptions concerning the speed and operating costs related to the truck driving. As for the speed it is assumed that the general condition of the road network is good on the motorways, is reasonable on the other important roads, and varies according to country on the remaining network. Operating costs have been investigated in a number of different studies, and these costs are applied assuming costs related to East European drivers in Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Russia, and costs related to Danish drivers in Germany, Denmark and Sweden. Use of ferries is related to the sailing time and ferry costs for the possible alternatives, including the rebates to be obtained Flows on selected inter-regional network links Road network flows Flows on the road networks in terms of total load of vehicles in 2003/04 are being established. In general it is established that the traffic load on the road network is light. However, around all the big cities in the area congestion problems are being experienced. As for bottlenecks certain road links have a tendency to getting congested. This relates in particular to road links being interrupted by e.g. ship passages like the B96 between Stralsund and Sassnitz. However, a thorough picture of all bottlenecks in the Baltic Gateway area does not exist. Vägverket in Sweden has indicated that even with low traffic volumes problems may arise in the small urban areas along the important roads, because the through traffic has a tendency to drive faster than allowed, thus increasing the possibilities for accidents and the road may constitute a barrier in the local community.

67 Scenario Analysis 66 It is also evident that at certain times of the year certain areas are more loaded than at other times. This is true for the Baltic Sea coast during in the holiday seasons and in arable areas at times when agricultural equipment uses the road infrastructure. Maritime flows Maritime flows have been established by Mariterm based on the Lloyds Fairplay databases. These data provide a good picture of the rather heavy traffic taking place along the Baltic Sea in both the East-West direction and in the north south direction. The number of passages through the Danish waters was in 2003 about and the number of passages through the Kiel Canal was about The amount of goods carried through the Danish waters and the Kiel Canal has been assessed to about 260 m. tons in As is already indicated in the presentation of the ports the main volumes are wet and dry bulk. However, a considerable amount of container transport is shipped through the Kiel Canal Regulation User charges Charges for the use of infrastructure have been proposed by the EUcommission in order to establish a regime where the users of the infrastructure pay the costs they inflict on the surrounding society. Since January 1 st, 2005 general user charges are being applied in the road sector in Germany for trucks with gross weight above 12 tons. All trucks irrespective of nationality have to pay this charge. However, the charge is only applicable on motorways and routes parallel to motorways. Truck drivers who want to avoid the charge therefore uses the underlying network, in this way creating congestion and safety hazards. The collected fees are in Germany being used for improving the road and rail infrastructure. The German government has decided that 50% of the revenue is allocated for the motorway network, and the remaining funds are being used for the rail network. A similar discussion is on going in Denmark and Sweden. In both countries the governments stand point is that the revenues are to be considered as taxes, and as such they cannot be allocated to specific purposes like improving the infrastructure. In Poland general user charges on the road network has not yet been introduced. Certain expressways are toll roads. In Poland the petrol taxes is being used for infrastructure development, managed by the National Road Fund. User charges for the rail system have been implemented in all Baltic Gateway countries except Russia. Germany and Poland apply the EICIS system for evaluating the charges. Denmark and Sweden assesses the marginal costs and establish the charges based on these evaluations. Latvia is also using a system based on average costs, but in a less complicated way than the German and Polish system. The goal is to establish full cost recovery for maintenance and operation of the rail infra-

68 Scenario Analysis 67 structure. using a system similar to the Danish and Swedish system, but strives to establish full cost recovery. The Lithuanian system has been introduced in March The basic charges applied on the main international lines for a 1000 tons freight train (about 500 tons of goods) are shown in the table below. Table 2.8. Infrastructure charges for rail, 2005 Cost per train km for freight trains Germany Denmark Sweden Poland Latvia Lithuania 2.27 EUR 1.23 EUR 0.36 EUR 5.53 EUR 6.36 EUR Na The table clearly indicates the very diversified charges applied throughout the Baltic Gateway area, with Sweden having the lowest charges and Latvia and Poland the highest charges. The charging level per 20 ton load on the railway in Latvia is the double of the charge levied on a truck load using the German motorway system. Port charges have been established for a long time. Using a port results in charges related to the call, and unloading and loading ships results in commodity charges, related to the type of commodity. A similar system operates for ferries, where a passenger and a vehicle fee are paid for every person or vehicle on board. A comparison of port charges are difficult to establish, because some ports integrate charges in the operators charges while other ports distinguish the different charges. Legislation and regulation Legislation and regulations are partly invoked by the EU-commission and partly a question for the national governments. The EU-commission has mainly been dealing with legislation supporting the free and unhindered competition between the different transport modes and the different countries. This relates to aspects like working hours, speed restrictions on vehicles, uniformity rules for international trucks, etc. The national governments establish their own rules as to the size and weight of the trucks. Therefore, in the Baltic Gateway area a multitude of different regulations exists on the truck size and truck weight, including axle loads. Sweden allows 25.5 m trucks, whereas the longest vehicles in the other countries are about 19m. Germany allows heavier and bigger ve-

69 Scenario Analysis 68 hicles on the landbridge between Hamburg and Lübeck/Travemünde, in order to establish a feeder system to and from Hamburg. In the railway sector the harmonisation of aspects of the border crossing railway transport is still lacking. An important aspect of regulation is an international agreement on the types of International loading units to be applied in the area. As it is the EU-commission is set to forbid the use of the 45 maritime container in EU. The maritime business community is strongly opposed to this. On the other hand the EU tries to persuade the transport industry to use the Loading unit invented by the commission. However, this loading unit is not compatible with other loading units, and therefore the maritime industry does not favour this. Control The establishment of the rules and regulations for the transport industry requires a national control of the adherence to these regulations. There are a number of different control areas of which to be mentioned: The police, ensuring the traffic rules are obeyed Toll enforcement, ensuring that heavy lorries actually pay their charges for using the motorway system Inspection bodies ensuring ships are in a seaworthy condition before taking off. Inspection bodies are also ensuring that trucks and railway wagons are in a good operable condition. Safety measures In the most recent time measures have been invoked in order to protect ships in ports against terrorist attacks. Such measures could become more important in the future, and also raise costs for using terminals and ports Logistics Services and distribution pattern The logistic services in the Baltic Gateway area are linked to the type of transport demanded. The demand can be divided into national/regional demand and international demand. Further it is reasonable to divide the commodities into wet bulk, dry bulk and other types of commodities. Wet bulk and dry bulk is typically served by specific ships and trains running between the important production and consumption places. Other type of commodities are linked to either big companies or to major distribution and consolidation terminals either in ports or located in the inland. The feeder service is a good example of a transport concept designed to fulfil the requirements of the general cargo in containers. Finally it should be recognised that the truck transport is important for connecting points of production and consumption with terminals and also in many cases for the transport between the terminals. Terminal types

70 Scenario Analysis 69 Different types of terminals are considered for the goods flows. As already indicated the different commodity types require different types of terminals. Further, the tendency has in the latest years been concentration meaning that even bulk commodities are being concentrated at big installations serving as a hub for goods distribution. The terminals can be designated: International terminals, serving a big part of Europe National terminals, serving national customers Regional terminals, serving regional customers Local terminals In the Baltic gateway area there are some international terminals serving the Baltic Sea area, e.g. the Toyota car centre in Copenhagen Malmö Port. Also the oil terminals in Butinge and Ventspils are international terminals serving the international community. There are several national terminals in the area. Gdansk, Gdynia and Szczecin are the main im- and export places in Poland. Also the German Baltic Sea ports are important national terminals. 2.2 Environmental data elements Indicators for ecological development can be viewed in terms of the overall changes of society caused by the Baltic Gateway development, but a more narrow definition based on the transport level is applied here. Ecological development can be expressed in terms of change in energy usage, CO2 and other emissions and noise, related to the development. Environmental data related to transport is very sensitive to the amount of driving. Based on very rough assumptions concerning the utilisation of the road network the total number of truck km in the Baltic Gateway area is assumed to about 9 b. truckkm in With an average driving of 2.5 km per L fuel, the total emission of CO2 is about 10 m tons attributable to truck transport. This figure relate to all truck traffic in the Baltic Gateway area including transit traffic. The passenger car traffic in the Baltic Gateway area is evaluated to emit about 33 m tons of CO2. The environmental effect of ship transport is a question which also needs to be addressed in the Baltic Gateway area. The area is traversed by a large number of ships using heavy bunker fuel. International conventions (MARPOL) have appointed the Baltic Sea to a special sensitive area, and this means that special rules apply to the fuel used by the ships. Most important, the content of sulphur must not exceed 1.5%. The Swedish government has introduced differentiated charges for ships regularly calling Swedish ports, in order to encourage shipowners to install catalysts on the exhaust in order to reduce nitrogen oxide emission and also to use fuel with a very low content of sulphur.

71 Scenario Analysis 70 Evidently, the emissions and fuel consumption for the ships operating in the Baltic Gateway area is difficult to assess, but based on a detailed calculation carried out for all ships in Danish waters in 2000, a rough figure 17 m. tons of CO2 can be assessed for the Baltic Gateway area, indicating that ships are discharging more CO2 than the trucks. This is not surprising, because only small fractions of the main road network are included in the Baltic Gateway area, while the most important Baltic Sea link is running through the Baltic Gateway area in its full length. Based on the same sources the emission of Sulphuroxide is assessed to about tons per year, and emission of NOx is about the double. Ferry and RORO transport amounts to a rather big emission of a magnitude of about 11 m. tons of CO2. Rail transport is to a large extent based on electrical traction. The emission of CO2 is therefore related to the electricity production and it has not been possible to obtain a justified figure for this emission. Neither has it been possible to evaluate the CO2 emissions from the air routes serving the Baltic Gateway area and the routes flying in transit across the area. 2.3 Cohesion and remoteness data elements Accessibility can be seen from two angles 1) creating better access to the main centres of the region, and 2) creating better access from the remote areas to the regional hubs. The data elements should support both requirements. Distance in time and costs to the main functional centres in the regions in the Baltic Gateway area. For passengers with person cars, air plane and public transport, for freight transport with truck and intermodal transport. Number of inhabitants within a 3 hour limit. Remoteness is proposed to combine structural weakness and accessibility deficiency. The structural weakness is established in terms of unemployment or population development. Accessibility deficiency could be defined by e.g. comparing real travel time to a standard travel time for the link in question and combining this with the accessibility improvement which can be achieved.

72 Scenario Analysis 71 Annex 3: SWOT analysis for ports and cities

73 Scenario Analysis 72 3 SWOT analysis for ports The SWOT analysis is carried out for port and cities in the Baltic Gateway area. Following ports are included: Karlskrona, Karlshamn, Ystad, Trelleborg Travemünde, Lübeck, Rostock, Sassnitz/Neu Mukran, Szczecin/Swinoujscie, Gdansk, Gdynia Baltijsk Klaipeda Liepaja 3.1 Port of Karlskrona Karlskrona is the regional centre of Blekinge in Sweden. Karlskrona is a city with educational institutions, a number of public and private administrations and some industries. Karlskrona municipality has about 61,000 inhabitants and Karlskrona with about 32,000 people is by far the biggest population agglomeration on the south east coast of Sweden. Karlskrona is the main gateway from Sweden to the Pommerania province in Poland. The ferry line Gdynia Karlskrona has been in operation since the early nineties, and has been growing in importance. In 2004 the number of shipped tons was up to 0.8 m. Sustainable development Sweden will continue its investments in improved living conditions for its citizens. In the LIB scenario population in Karlskrona is expected to increase over the development foreseen in the TREND scenario, whereas population is expected to remain stable in the REG scenario, being a result of a migration from rural areas in Blekinge into Karlskrona, and a migration from Karlskrona towards the main urban areas in south west Sweden. Employment shows the same development. The income proxy in terms of car ownership is expected to continue its increase in TREND, further grow in LIB and result in a reduction in REG. There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions stemming from both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is

74 Scenario Analysis 73 offset by growth in the LIB scenario and is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Karlskrona this aspect has particular importance in two ways, 1) the improvement of the railway between Kristianstad and Karlskrona creates a direct electrified connection towards Copenhagen 2) the ferry link between Karlskrona and Gdynia is being further developed. In the REG scenario travel time with rail to Copenhagen is further reduced due to construction of the rail link between Kristianstad and Höör. In the LIB scenario access to Gdynia is improved by use of fast ferries able to make the trip from Karlskrona to Gdynia in 6 hours in stead of the present 10.5 hours. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Ronneby airport as a hub. Ronneby is located about 30 km from Karlskrona and serves as the main airport for both Karlskrona and Karlshamn. In the LIB scenario access to the airport is facilitated by the new motorway linking Karlskrona to Malmö on a direct high class road, including motorway from Karlskrona to Ronneby. The REG scenario envisages a decline in air transport compared with 2003 from Ronneby airport. In stead an improved rail connection makes it easy to reach Copenhagen and Sturup airports. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Karlskrona is the construction of the new motorway/expressway Karlskrona Kristianstad Malmö in the LIB scenario and introduction of road user charges of different magnitudes on the main road (E22) in all scenarios. In LIB the road user charges reflect maintenance and operation of the road, whereas the road user charges in the REG scenario has been estimated taking the environmental and road safety aspects into consideration. The development of the rail infrastructure is ongoing, and this will be further improved in the REG scenario with the construction of the direct link between Kristianstad and Höör. No new development is expected in the port, except a new berth area is foreseen in the LIB scenario for the ferry link between Karlskrona and Gdynia. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to other areas in Sweden, and to Copenhagen and Germany. Karlskrona and thus Blekinge will be more integrated in the regional development in south Sweden with the improved infrastructure. There are not foreseen any congestion problems on the main roads leading to and from Karlskrona in the different scenarios.

75 Scenario Analysis 74 In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferry to railwagons is envisaged. Use of rail ferry transfer is not foreseen in any of the scenarios. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In the REG alternative rail goods are being transferred to the ferries operating between Karlskrona and Gdynia. Compatibility of rail systems will in general improve, because Karlskrona will be linked directly to the Öresund train system in the near future. Toll collection systems for the road transport will be introduced at a national level. The location of Karlskrona may increase road costs relatively more than to other regions. However, Karlskrona is on the direct line to Pommerania. The shortest route between the Swedish production and consumption areas and the province of Pommerania is via Karlskrona. This may turn out to be an advantage in the future. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation and the ferry road interface is well established in the Karlskrona. This interface will be improved in the LIB scenario because of better accessibility to the ferry port. In the REG scenario the interface between rail and ferry will be improved in order to handle semi trailers, swap bodies etc. on the ferry and transfer these units to rail wagons. The Verkö terminal will be improved to handle considerable volumes of rail goods being transferred by the ferries. The terminal will also serve East Blekinge, providing an efficient transfer point for national goods in Sweden.

76 Scenario Analysis Port of Karlshamn Karlshamn is an important industrial centre of Blekinge in Sweden. Karlshamn has the biggest port in Blekinge, mainly dealing with bulk products, both liquid and dry, and also serving a RORO route between Sweden and Lithuania. Blekinge Technical University is located in Karlshamn. The municipality of Karlshamn has about 30,000 inhabitants with a falling tendency. Karlshamn is the biggest conventional port on the south coast of Sweden. The port turnover is about 5.1 m. tons in Karlshamn is presently developing a major transport centre in relation to an extension of the commercial port. This transport centre will provide a focal point for the development of intermodal transport and bulk transport. The RORO line Klaipeda Karlshamn has been in operation since the early nineties, and has been growing in importance. There is, however, a stiff competition with several other routes serving east Sweden and the Baltic countries. Sustainable development Karlshamn is a small city which is not expected to develop in the three different scenarios. Transport, however, will gain an increasing share of the employment market as will also education. Industrial development will be reduced. Car ownership will increase in TREND and LIB and decrease in REG. There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions related to both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Karlshamn this aspect has particular importance in two ways, 1) the improvement of the railway between Kristianstad and Karlskrona creates a direct electrified connection from Karlshamn to Copenhagen 2) development of the transport centre opens up the possibility of further consolidating unit loads to be sent to the Baltic countries and beyond and eventually Poland. In the REG scenario travel time with rail to Copenhagen is further reduced due to the new construction of the rail link between Kristianstad and Höör improving cohesion. In the REG scenario transport of ILUs makes up an important aspect of the RORO transport to the Baltic countries. Therefore, trans-national cooperation concerning the rail RORO rail is being improved. In the LIB scenario a similar development is seen except that it is road RORO road which is improved. There are not foreseen any changes in transport time with the RORO ships, presently hours. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Ronneby airport as a hub. Ronneby is located about 30 km from Karlshamn and serves as the main airport for Karlshamn. In the LIB scenario access to the airport is facilitated by the new motorway/expressway linking Karlskrona to Malmö on a direct high class road, including expressway standard from Karlshamn to Ronneby.

77 Scenario Analysis 76 The REG scenario envisages a decline in air transport compared with 2003 from Ronneby airport. In stead an improved rail connection makes it easy to reach Copenhagen and Sturup airports. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Karlshamn is the construction of the new motorway/expressway Karlskrona Kristianstad Malmö in the LIB scenario and introduction of road user charges of different magnitudes on the main road (E22) in all scenarios. In LIB the road user charges reflect maintenance and operation of the road, whereas the road user charges in the REG scenario has been estimated taking the environmental and road safety aspects into consideration. The development of the rail infrastructure is ongoing, and this will be further improved in the REG scenario with the construction of the direct link between Kristianstad and Höör. Construction of the transport centre and improvement of transfer facilities will reduce travel time and travel costs via the centre. This may attract further goods from the counties to the north of Karlshamn including Gothenburg. In the LIB scenario Karlshamns turnover on the port is expected to increase considerable. In the REG scenario, the development is expected to take place in many areas, and Karlshamn is not expected to gain more goods that in the TREND scenario. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to other areas in Sweden, and to Copenhagen and Germany. Karlshamn will be more integrated in the regional development in south Sweden with the improved infrastructure. There are not foreseen any congestion problems on the main roads leading to and from Karlshamn in any of the scenarios. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the TREND and REG scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In all alternatives RORO opera-

78 Scenario Analysis 77 tions are considered to be important means of transport in the traffic between the Baltic countries and Sweden. Improved road infrastructure along the south shore of the Baltic Sea in the LIB scenario may divert traffic from the RORO routes to road traffic. Development of the transport centre is expected to reduce this transfer of transport to the road network in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario the transport centre serves both as a point of transfer for rail goods and for road based goods. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport The transport centre and its intermodal nature will allow Karlshamn to grow into an important intermodal node in the future. Interface road RORO route will be improved in the LIB scenario because of better accessibility to Karlshamn. In the REG scenario the interface between rail and RORO route will be improved in order to handle semi trailers, swap bodies etc. on the RORO ships and transfer these units to rail wagons. 3.3 Port of Trelleborg Trelleborg is the main gateway for road goods entering Sweden from Germany and the European market. About 10.8 m. tons of goods were dispatched in 2004 with the ferries serving Travemünde, Rostock and Sassnitz. Trelleborg has also for many years been an important rail goods ferry port serving presently about 2.7 m. tons of rail goods, distributed between the two routes Trelleborg Sassnitz (2.0 m. tons) and Trelleborg Rostock (0.7 m. tons). Trelleborg has been the main gateway towards south since the beginning of the nineteen century. Trelleborg has extended the ferry port as the need has grown. Trelleborg municipality has about inhabitants, mainly employed in public service, transport and industry. Many, however, are also commuting to the greater Malmö area. Malmö is located only 35 km from Trelleborg. Trelleborg is continuously developing the port area. The motorway to Trelleborg stops at Vellinge and the last 12 km is the road a wide 2 lane highway. In the TREND and LIB scenarios this road is foreseen being extended as motorway to the ferry port. Sustainable development Trelleborgs proximity to Malmö makes the city a growth area for the population. Commuting will increase fast in the LIB scenario, and Trelleborg could be expected to have a considerable population growth. The city s location on the main railway line makes it also possible for Trelleborg to upkeep a population increase in the REG scenario. This development is a continuation of the on-going population development. Employment in Trelleborg will increase in the three scenarios, but not in the same pace as population development. Therefore, commuting will increase, with cars in the LIB scenario and with bus and train in the REG scenario. Car ownership will increase in TREND, grow even further in LIB and remain at the 2003 level in REG.

79 Scenario Analysis 78 There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions stemming from both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is offset by growth in the LIB scenario and is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Trelleborg this aspect has particular importance in two ways, 1) the improvement of the railway and road connection to Malmö creates a faster and more direct way towards Copenhagen 2) the ferry links between Trelleborg and Germany are being further developed. Competition from the parallel Fehmarn Belt fixed link may create difficult conditions for the port of Trelleborg. However, the location of Trelleborg on the route to the continent is good ensuring that resting time can be observed, or that unaccompanied trailers and containers can be sent off at reasonable prices and saving a rather long distance of land transport. Improvement of connections between Poland and Germany will aslo improve the potentials of the Trelleborg routes. With motorway from Rostock to Szczecin and to Poznan is the route via Trelleborg a competitive route in comparison with Ystad - Swinoujscie. Fast ferries will further improve the competitiveness of the routes. In all scenarios Trelleborg is better integrated into the Öresund rail system, ensuring fast and efficient connections with Copenhagen. Therefore, Trelleborg is also prone to become a residential area for residents working in Copenhagen. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Sturup and Kastrup airports. Co-operation between the two airports ensures an efficient airport in south Scandinavia able to compete with the Hamburg and Berlin airports. Sturup is located 30 km from Trelleborg. In the REG scenario there is a decline in air transport but also a consolidation of departures on the main airports. This is an advantage for Trelleborg, which is close to the important airports in the region. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. Both the motorway between the port of Trelleborg and Vellinge and the railway between Trelleborg and Malmö will be upgraded and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Trelleborg, constituting a threat, is the development of the Fehmarn Belt fixed link. In the LIB scenario the Fehmarn Belt fixed link is a road only link, whereas in the REG scenario it is a rail only link. The fixed link will reduce travel time to the Continent. However, a stricter enforcement of driving regulations may show to be an advantage for Trelleborg, which is the port for important ferry and RORO routes bypassing the Fehmarn Belt link, and ensuring the neces-

80 Scenario Analysis 79 sary resting times for drivers. However, more and more efficient planning of the driving may result in the ferries being less attractive. In the LIB scenario the Fehmarn Belt competition has reduced the traffic on the Trelleborg Travemünde link. Fehmarn Belt fixed link is seen as a piece of public infrastructure and the tolls to be paid reflects the costs of operation and maintenance of the fixed link. Therefore competition gets very hard between the ferry routes and the fixed link. Traffic on Rostock route has improved due to the construction of the A20 and construction of a new main north south axis from Wismar via Magdeburg to the south circumventing Berlin and Hamburg. Rail traffic on the Trelleborg Sassnitz link has been reduced to a level where the operation of the route is not cost-effective any more. Therefore the oldest of the routes between Sweden and the Continent has been closed down for full year operation. In the REG scenario the Trelleborg links are also losing traffic mainly because of improved time schedules for rail traffic across the Fehmarn Belt. Another important reason is that railway capacity in Denmark in this scenario has been improved, permitting availability of the required channels. However, the rail ferry operation to Sassnitz is maintained, as is the operation to Travemünde and Rostock with a smaller volume than in TREND and LIB. There are not foreseen any congestion problems on the main roads and railways leading to and from Trelleborg in the three scenarios. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. This will be further developed in Trelleborg because this is one of the strong points in the port: Efficiency in loading and unloading the ferries and RORO ships. This is valid for both road and rail transport. Toll collection systems for the road transport will be introduced at a national level. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB sce-

81 Scenario Analysis 80 nario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation and the ferry - road and ferry rail interfaces are well established in Trelleborg. Both interfaces will be improved in the TREND scenario. In the REG scenario further development of the ferry rail interface is initiated in competition with the Fehmarn Belt fixed link. 3.4 Port of Ystad Ystad is a municipal centre on the south coast of Sweden. Ystad has about 17,000 people living in the city, and in the municipality there are about 27,000. There has been a growing tendency for population increase. The main employment in Ystad is within public service and industry. Commuting from Ystad is bigger than commuting to Ystad, mainly because the distance from Ystad to the Malmö-Lund conurbation is only 60 km. Ystad is the main gateway from Sweden to the West Pommeranian province in Poland. The ferry lines Swinoujscie Ystad have been in operation for many years, and has been growing in importance despite the more severe competition from other routes. In 2004 a total of about 2 m. tons, of which.4 m. tons were rail goods, were shipped on this route. Sustainable development In the TREND and LIB scenarios population is expected to increase, most in the LIB scenario, where Ystad will develop into a sub-urban community linked to the greater Malmö area. Even in the REG scenario population is expected to grow, mainly because Ystad has got good rail and bus connections to the greater Malmö area. Employment in Ystad is expected to increase but not as fast as population development. This is valid for all the scenarios. Car ownership in the TREND scenario is higher than it is today, and stable in REG. An increasing number of cars are fuelled by bio-fuel and electricity. There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions related to both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is offset by growth in the LIB scenario and is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Ystad, the integration in the Öresund traffic system will be reached in the REG scenario. This will provide an efficient route to Copenhagen. Already today a specific rail and bus route exists which runs directly from Ystad ferry port to Copenhagen carrying passengers from Bornholm to the rest of Denmark.

82 Scenario Analysis 81 Ferry connections to Poland are a mixture of conventional and fast ferries in the LIB scenario. The transport time across the Baltic Sea is reduced from 8 hours to 5 hours for the fast ferries. Further, passenger rail services are being improved from Swinoujscie to Szczecin which means that it is possible to reach from the Malmö Copenhagen area to Szczecin in 7 8 hours. The construction of a tunnel between Usedom and Swinoujscie ferry port for road traffic also facilitates the easy access to the German Baltic coast via Swinoujscie. Therefore the Ystad Swinoujscie line is expected to have a reasonable potential in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario rail access to the Swinoujscie ferry port is improved, and this combined with the connections from Ystad northwards make the Ystad Swinoujscie a good alternative to other routes between Sweden and the Continent. Ystad is located in the catchment area of the Sturup airport. Therefore improvement of the air connections foreseen in both LIB and REG scenarios will be an advantage for Ystad and improve cohesion with countries on the other side of the Baltic Sea. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Ystad in the LIB scenario is the construction of a new motorway between Skurup and Ystad and improvement of road 13 from Ystad to Höör and introduction of road user charges on the main road (E65) in all scenarios. No new development is expected in the port, except a new berth area is foreseen in the LIB scenario for the fast ferries between Ystad and Swinoujscie. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to other areas in Sweden, and to Copenhagen. There are not foreseen any congestion problems on the main roads leading to and from Ystad in the different scenarios. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferry to railwag-

83 Scenario Analysis 82 ons is envisaged. The transfer of goods wagons is limited in this scenario and ceased in both LIB and TREND scenarios. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In the REG alternative rail ferry operations are considered to be of importance in the traffic between Poland and Sweden. This is a possibility already today, but the amount of goods transferred on the routes is limited. In the REG scenario rail ferry interfaces will be improved. Toll collection systems for the road transport will be introduced at a national level. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation and the ferry - road and ferry rail interfaces are well established in Ystad. The ferry road interface will be improved in the LIB scenario because of better accessibility to the ferry port from both E65 and route 13. In the REG scenario the interface between rail and ferry will be improved in order to handle semi trailers, swap bodies etc. on the ferry and transfer these units to rail wagons. 3.5 Port of Travemünde and Lübeck Travemünde and Lübeck are two almost integrated urban areas located at the banks of the river Trave. Lübeck is a main commercial and administrative centre in Schleswig-Holstein, and a number of important forwarding and haulage companies are located here. The port of Lübeck and Travemünde is the most important ferry and RORO port on the German Baltic coast with a total turnover of about 26 m. tons and connections to Sweden, Finland, Russia and the Baltic States. The number of inhabitants in Lübeck Travemünde is about 215,000. The population has been fairly stable around this number since In 2003 there were about 80,000 working in Lübeck-Travemünde, and unemployment was about 13 %. Lübeck serves as an important workarea for Ost-Holstein. The number of commuters to the city is about the double compared to the people commuting from the city. Hamburg is only 60 km away, and there is an important cargo flow between Lübeck and Hamburg, a land-bridge hauling goods for port of Hamburg to and from the Baltic coast in Lübeck.

84 Scenario Analysis 83 Sustainable development In Schleswig-Holstein the economic development will continue with a pace which is about the average for the Federal republic. Lübeck, which is located close to Hamburg, the growth locomotive of the region, will experience a decreasing population in the TREND scenario (to about 200,000 inhab.), a population at the same level as in 2003 in the LIB scenario, and a population increase in the REG scenario caused by a clustering of people in the major urban areas with efficient public transport. In the LIB scenario employment rises to about 90,000 jobs. The influx of workers from other EU-countries makes it possible to fill a number of vacancies which could not be filled in Unemployment has fallen drastically. In the REG scenario the influx of people is not balanced with the creation of sufficient jobs. Therefore, unemployment is still on a high level although not comparable with the 13 % in Car ownership in the TREND scenario is at about the same level as in 2003 i.e. 450 passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants. In the LIB scenario this figure is about 500 and in the REG scenario around 400, comparable to the level of There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions related to both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is offset by growth in the LIB scenario and is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Lübeck this aspect has particular importance concerning the development of the Fehmarn Belt fixed link and development of parallel competing ferry services to Sweden. Lübeck will take advantage of the development and maintain its importance as a centre for transport services consolidating the volumes from the Baltic Sea to and from the intercontinental port of Hamburg. Lübeck will continue its development as a hinterland centre for Hamburg, taking some of the pressure of the port of Hamburg. The creation of the fixed link establishes a high frequent rail time table between Hamburg and Copenhagen with stopover in Lübeck. In the TREND scenario there are 12 departures per day in each direction. In LIB the rail connection does not exist, but in REG number of daily departures are 18. The rail services are supplemented with bus services providing access across the fixed link between smaller urban areas on both sides of the Belt. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Lübeck Blankensee as a regional hub. The airport is already used by Ryan Air, and access to other parts of the Baltic Gateway area will be established using this airport as a hub. There will be fast bus services from Lübeck station to the airport. In the REG scenario the importance

85 Scenario Analysis 84 of Blankensee is limited. Traffic is concentrated on the Hamburg airport with high class public transport serving it. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Lübeck is extension of the A20 towards the west in the LIB scenario, providing a new motorway connection to Neumünster and the northern suburbs of Hamburg. This will be combined with development of a motorway connection across Fehmarn Belt to Denmark. In the LIB scenario the A27 from Kiel to Lüneburg will be constructed. This will provide another good access to the south from Lübeck bypassing Hamburg. In the REG scenario only the A27 will be constructed. The construction of a fixed Fehmarn Belt rail link in the REG scenario provide an efficient rail link for both passenger and goods between Scandinavia and the Continent. This rail link will attract considerable goods because of the regulated road and rail costs. A major terminal is constructed in Lübeck for consolidation of goods for both ferries and rail links. The freight shuttle operating between Hamburg and Lübeck will be extended. In the LIB scenario this will happen with both rail and road services, while in the REG scenario the present road service will be replaced with an intensive rail service. Tracks will be constructed for this particular service. The port of Lübeck and Travemünde will be extended in the LIB scenario to cater for the major influx of trade with Russia and the Baltic countries. This will also be part of the Motorway of the Baltic Sea. The improved road and rail system is not sufficient to avoid congestion. In the TREND scenario congestion is expected on the Hamburg - Lübeck motorway, and on the railway in the important nodes in Hamburg. In the LIB scenario congestion will be even bigger with increasing transport costs as a consequence. In the REG scenario congestion will be reduced in both the road system and in the rail system. The regulated transport costs, however, are high. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB except in the big cities, like Hamburg and Lübeck where congestion enforces a higher price for using the infrastructure. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility

86 Scenario Analysis 85 concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferry to railwagons is envisaged. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In the TREND scenario the present development will be continued, that is using special trains and mega carriers for hauling transit flows across the land bridge Lübeck Hamburg. The port is expected to serve about 40 m. tons in 2020 in the TREND scenario. In the LIB scenario 35 m. tons are expected to pass the port. The Fehmarn Belt fixed link creates a strong competitive situation and so does the new coast motorway from Lübeck to Riga. In the REG scenario there is 30 m. tons shipped through the port, mainly because of smaller volumes and competition from the Fehmarn Belt fixed rail link. The toll collection systems for the road transport will be extended to cover more roads than the motorways. This will be the case in all scenarios. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario (although the volumes on rail increases) and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ship and ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation in big scale is being carried out in Travemünde and Lübeck ports. This development will continue. A major terminal is foreseen in the Lübeck area in all scenarios making it possible to consolidate goods to and from the Nordic market in Lübeck. 3.6 Port of Rostock Rostock is the biggest city in Mecklemburg-Vorpommern with about inhabitants (2004). It is an important administrative and logistical centre on the Baltic Sea coast, and has a considerable industry. Public service is the biggest employer. The city of Rostock has been declining in number of inhabitants whereas the suburban areas around Rostock are increasing. Unemployment is higher in Rostock (about 19%) than in Lübeck (about 13%), indicating that the average income is also lower. Car ownership is about 410 passenger cars per 1000 inhabitants. Rostock is located rather isolated, but with easy access to Berlin along the motorway system. The rail line to Berlin is old and needs rehabilitation.

87 Scenario Analysis 86 Rostock has an important port with a turnover of about 21.6 m. tons (2003) of which about 11 m. tons in ferry traffic. There are regular connections and ferry services to Sweden, Finland and Denmark. Sustainable development The GNP growth in the Federal republic is expected to increase from the present very low growth rates. It is also important that the growth in the TREND scenario is distributed over the whole of the republic, meaning that Mecklenburg-Vorpommern will benefit from the growth. For Rostock to regain some momentum in its development it is required with a positive growth in terms of employment opportunities and income generation. This will happen in all scenarios. The economic impact is expected to be biggest in the LIB scenario. Traffic to, from and in Rostock will increase. It is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions related to both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is offset by growth in the LIB scenario and the improvement is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Rostock the cohesion is linked to development of the ferry routes serving the city, and to the development on the German Polish border in terms of new links and new rail services. Construction of the A20 leads to a better cohesion internally in Mecklenburg- Vorpommern but will also lead to improved access to Swinoujscie and Szczecin. In the LIB scenario use of fast ferries improve cohesion across the Baltic Sea. Fast ferries are expected to operate on the link to Gedser and to Trelleborg. Also in the LIB scenario access to Swinoujscie is improved via a motorway link from Anklam to Swinoujscie, including a tunnel under the Swina river. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Rostock-Laage airport as a hub. Rostock Laage is located about 30 km from Rostock with good access on the motorway. The REG scenario envisages a decline in air transport compared with 2003 from Rostock-Laage airport. In stead an improved rail connection makes it easy to reach Berlin within 1.5 hours from Rostock. Also in the REG scenario a rail link connecting Rostock with the westbank of the Swina river via Stralsund and Anklam will make access to Poland easier. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Rostock is the finalisation of the A20, construc-

88 Scenario Analysis 87 tion of a new road linking Usedom and Swinoujscie with the A20 near Anklam in the LIB scenario and in the REG scenario a new rail to Swinoujscie via Anklam. Rostock will have access to the Baltic Motorway of the Sea, and will be in tough competition with Lübeck concerning the goods to transit to the intercontinental ports. The tight relationship between the port of Hamburg and the port of Lübeck is not matched in a similar relationship in Rostock. However, in the REG scenario a freight freeway is established between Rostock and the main Rhine-hub Duisburg. This connection makes it possible to bypass the congested areas around Hamburg and access Rotterdam and Antwerp via Duisburg. Rostock is also having an advantage against Lübeck in the direct rail link to the Mediterranean. In the REG scenario this link is expected to offer seamless services. In the LIB scenario it is expected that the ferry line between Rostock and Gedser is moved to the old location in Warnemünde. This will provide a better competitive situation against the Fehmarn Belt fixed link, which could carve some traffic from the Rostock Gedser link. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to Berlin, Swinoujscie and Szczecin. There are not foreseen any congestion problems but local problems on the main roads leading to and from Rostock in the TREND and LIB scenario. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls, but at a very moderate level in LIB except in the big cities, like Rostock, where congestion forces a higher price for using the infrastructure. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the TREND and REG scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferry to railwagons is envisaged. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In the TREND scenario the present development will be continued, that is shifting rail goods in the port of Rostock to the ferries on the Trelleborg link. The system is well developed, and in the REG scenario further rail goods will be shifted. The main volumes in the LIB scenario will be road haulage and transfer of semi-trailers to the ferries and RORO ships. Rostock as a transport hub is expected to increase its importance as the economies in central Europe gain more power. However, the port needs to constantly im-

89 Scenario Analysis 88 prove in the competition with the port of Swinoujscie/Szczecin and Gdansk/Gdynia. The toll collection systems for the road transport will be extended to cover more roads than the motorways. This will be the case in both TREND and REG scenarios. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario (although the volumes on rail increases) and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ship and ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation will continue in the port of Rostock. 3.7 Port of Sassnitz/Neu Mukran Sassnitz and more specific the ferry port in Neu Mukran is a main rail ferry port serving both Trelleborg, Russia (Baltijsk and St. Petersburg) and Klaipeda. Neu Mukran has the possibility to reaxle rail wagons, which makes it one of the possible places for entering Russian type wagons into the Normal European railway system. Sassnitz is a small town of about people, mainly engaged in transport, public service and tourism. The ferry port is the biggest rail ferry port in Germany. Sassnitz is located on the island of Rügen, and the connection to the mainland is a bridge which is open to ships about 5 times a day. In the season this creates long queues and makes the road traffic difficult to plan. Rail traffic is also cut during the opening hours of the bridge, but that is planned for in the time tables. Sustainable development Population on the island of Rügen is decreasing and this is mainly because employment opportunities are limited. There is a major influx of tourist in during summer but at other times of the year Rügen is quiet. Income formation is slow, and therefore car ownership in Rügen is developing slowly in the TREND scenario. In the LIB scenario the population decreases faster, because of limited possibilities in the rural areas. In the REG scenario mainly public transport is improved, but the policy is to establish good conditions for the development of rural areas, and this reverses the trend of migrating towards the mainland. Sassnitz has a positive population development, and employment increases. There is expected to be a continued reduction of emissions related to both improved vehicle technology and rules and regulations concerning emissions from ships including ferries. This improvement is offset by growth in the LIB scenario and is further advanced in the regulation scenario due to use of taxes, fees and dues.

90 Scenario Analysis 89 Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. Sassnitz, as the ferry port for smallest of the routes between Trelleborg and Germany, is threatened with a possible closing down. In the TREND scenario the route is still available, but in the LIB scenario the route is closed down, because the traffic can be taken over by Rostock. In the REG scenario the route is still in operation, and the transfer of railgoods is increasing. The route, however, is in a continuous competition with the Fehmarn Belt fixed link, and the use of the Sassnitz line is mainly seen as a possibility to avoid congested rail lines. The use of the ferry port as a bridgehead for the routes from Lithuania and Russia continues in the TREND and in the REG scenarios. Construction of the Via Hanseatica in the LIB scenario makes the routes abundant, and all ferry traffic is closed down in this scenario. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Sassnitz is the construction of the B96 crossing of Strelasund which improves traffic conditions considerable for both road and rail. Another important point is the construction of the Via Hanseatica in the LIB scenario which leads to a closing down of the ferry traffic on the port of Neu Mukran. No new development is expected in the port. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to other areas in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. Rügen will be more integrated in the state of Mecklenburg-Vorpommern. With the new crossing and a new motorway connecting to A20 no congestion problems are foreseen on the main road network in TREND and LIB scenarios. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls on the full road network. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation for regional passenger transport is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Freight transport by rail is reduced in the TREND scenario, and abolished in the LIB scenario. Only in the REG scenario rail freight transport via Sassnitz is preserved to a greater extent. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in 2003.

91 Scenario Analysis 90 Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. As already indicated the port of Sassnitz is one of the few places where reaxling can be carried out. This makes interoperability between rail gauges a possibility in Sassnitz. Improvement of interoperability between the rail systems in Lithuania, Kaliningrad, Poland and Germany may render the ferry line obsolete. The toll collection systems for the road transport will be extended to cover more roads than the motorways. This will be the case in both TREND and REG scenarios. It is assumed that the rail mode will lose market shares in the traffic via Sassnitz in the TREND and LIB scenario, and will obtain a higher market share in the REG scenario. On the Trelleborg route there will be no rail traffic in the LIB scenario. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Sassnitz is to be considered a ferry port and not an intermodal terminal. However, the practise of transporting semi-trailers will continue, but there will be no repacking and no value-added to this type of transport. 3.8 Port of Swinoujscie and Szczecin Szczecin and Swinoujscie are two cities located approx. 90 km apart. The port of Szczecin and Swinoujscie is, however, one company, serving both cities. Actually the port also is the administrative body for the port in Police about 100 km to the east of Swinoujscie. Szczecin is the biggest city in West Pommerania with about 415,000 people. Szczecin is the provincial capital. The number of employed person is about 150,000. Unemployment is high, about 16% and it has been growing during the last years. More than half of the employed persons are engaged in private market services. About 25% are employed in Industry and construction. The port of Szczecin located in the mound of the Odra river handles about 8.6 m. tons, mainly coal, other dry bulk and general cargo. Swinoujscie is located on the Baltic Sea coast at the outlet of the Swina river. Swinoujscie is a small city with 41,000 inhabitants. The major part of the city is located on the island of Usedom, but the port is located on the island of Wolin, where the ferries to Denmark and Sweden embark. It is also on the island of Wolin that the commercial port is located. The commercial port turnover is about 5.9 m tons of which the major part is coal. The ferry port turnover is about 1.5 m tons. Located at the shore of the inland Stettiner sea is Police with about 20,000 people, and a turnover of about 2.4 m tons, mainly other bulk products. Sustainable development GNP and trade in Poland have high growth rates in the TREND scenario, and increase is even bigger in the LIB scenario. Population is in

92 Scenario Analysis 91 general decreasing in Poland, but will remain stable in the Szczecin Swinoujscie corridor in the TREND scenario. In The LIB scenario population is expected to increase in this corridor, while it is expected to decrease slightly in the REG scenario. Employment will develop fast mainly because the employment frequency will be increasing from the present 60% to the expected 70% in Also income is expected to raise, and therefore car ownership will increase substantial in the LIB scenario, but also in the two other scenarios. Emissions are expected to increase the corridor in the TREND scenario, and even further in the LIB scenario. Only in the REG scenario are emissions expected to decrease. Noise will be increasing with the traffic flow, and therefore noise will be an environmental problem in the LIB scenario. As for traffic accidents they are assumed to increase slightly in the corridor in the TREND scenario, but increase even more in the LIB scenario. Traffic accidents will be reduced in the REG scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Szczecin Swinoujscie is the main improvement related to rehabilitation work on the existing railway from Berlin to port of Szczecin and improvement of the motorway from Berlin to Szczecin. Presently no car traffic is allowed to enter Swinoujscie from Usedom. In the TREND scenario this condition is maintained. But in the LIB scenario a new link across the Odra river from the eastbank to Police is expected to be constructed, and also a new tunnel taking traffic from the eastern part of Swinoujscie to the western part of the city below the Swina river will be constructed. In The REG scenario rail connection to the west bank of the Swina river will be improved, and the cohesion between the German railway network and the Polish network around Szczecin will be improved. This will result in frequent departures with regional trains between Berlin and Szczecin, and possibilities to dispatch freight trains between the port of Szczecin and Berlin. The improved railway line is in competition with the improved railway line between Berlin and Rostock. Ferry lines will be improved, and in the LIB scenario fast ferries will be operating on the route to Ystad. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Szczecin Goleniow airport as a base. Szczecin Golenoiw airport is located 30 km to the north east of Szczecin. Ryan air is operating from the airport. The access road to the airport is in good condition. Rail service is established to Goleniow 7 km from the airport. In the LIB scenario the new link across the Odra river will provide another easy access to the airport, serving mainly the western part of the city. The REG scenario envisages an unchanged use of the airport compared to Improve accessibility

93 Scenario Analysis 92 In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Szczecin Swinoujscie is improvement of the E65 from Swinoujscie to the Prague and development of the main road from szczecin to Poznan. In the LIB scenario further the road from Gdynia along the coast to Szczecin (Via Hanseatica) will be improved. The development of the rail infrastructure is ongoing, and the railway system will be in a good working condition in the TREND scenario. In the REG scenario small pieces will be added which particularly joins the Polish network with the German network. Port capacity will be extended in the TREND scenario. The development of the ports enhance the competition between Rostock and its hinterland connections and Szczecin Swinoujscie and its hinterland connection. Both ports could serve the Czeck Republic and Austria. Szczecin also serves as an inland waterway linked to the Odra river and a number of Canals both in Germany and in Poland. This aspect is being furthervenhanced in the REG scenario. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to important places like Poznan, Wroclaw and Berlin. In the LIB scenario congestion problems could be forseen on some stretches of the main road system. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls applicable to all roads. They will be compatible with the tolls applied by the public private enterprises constructing a number of the Polish expressways. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferries to rail wagons is envisaged. Use of rail ferry transfer is not foreseen in the LIB scenario. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. In the REG alternative rail ferry operations are considered to be of importance in the traffic between Poland and Sweden. Compatibility of rail systems will in general improve. An improvement of the administrative regulations concerning trains

94 Scenario Analysis 93 will be a big advantage, and may result in more goods on the railways crossing the land borders of Poland and less traffic on the ferries. Toll collection systems for road transport will be introduced at a national level. Presently systems ae in operation on certain toll roads, but this system will be extended to the complete country. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. The ferry transport will be of importance in all the scenarios. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation and the ferry - road and ferry rail interfaces are well established in Swinoujscie. The ferry road interface will be improved in the LIB scenario because of better accessibility to the ferry port from E65. In the REG scenario the interface between rail and ferry will be improved in order to handle semi trailers, swap bodies etc. on the ferry and transfer these units to rail wagons. 3.9 Port of Gdansk Gdansk is the administrative, industrial and commercial centre of Pommerania. Gdansk has about 460,000 inhabitants and is located close to Sopot with 40,000 people and Gdynia with 250,000 People. The Gdansk/Gdynia conurbation is an important urban area in Poland. Population in Gdansk has been decreasing while population gas grown in the suburbs and rural areas close to the city. Employment in Gdansk has fallen from 1995 and unemployment is about 10%. The port of Gdansk is the biggest port in Poland with a turnover in 2004 of 23.3 m tons. About 12 m tons are liquid fuel, and this type of commodity has grown considerable from 6 m tons in Sustainable development GNP and trade in Poland have high growth rates in the TREND scenario, and increase is even bigger in the LIB scenario. Population is in general decreasing in Poland, but will remain stable in the Gdansk in the TREND scenario. In The LIB scenario population is expected to increase in the city, while it is expected to decrease slightly in the REG scenario. Employment will develop fast mainly because the employment frequency will be increasing from the present 60% to the expected 70% in Also income is expected to raise, and therefore car ownership will increase substantial in the LIB scenario, but also in the two other scenarios. Emissions are expected to increase the city in the TREND scenario, and even further in the LIB scenario. Only in the REG scenario are emissions expected to decrease. Noise will be increasing with the traffic

95 Scenario Analysis 94 flow, and therefore noise will be an environmental problem in the LIB scenario. As for traffic accidents they are assumed to increase slightly in the city in the TREND scenario, but increase even more in the LIB scenario. Traffic accidents will be reduced in the REG scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Gdansk is the main improvement related to rehabilitation work on the existing railway to Warsaw and the railway to Katowice and improvement of the motorway from Gdansk to Katowice. Cohesion will mainly be improved with the Kaliningrad area via the Via Hanseatica being constructed in the LIB scenario. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Gdansk Lech Walesa Airport as a base. The airport is located 30 km to the west of Gdansk close to the motorway from Gdynia. The access road to the airport is in good condition. No rail service is foreseen, but bus services are working in the TREND, LIB and REG scenarios. The REG scenario envisages an unchanged use of the airport compared to Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Gdansk is improvement of the E75 (A5) from Gdansk to Katowice and development of the main road from Gdansk to Warsaw. In the LIB scenario further the road from the border of Kaliningrad region via Elblag (Via Hanseatica) is improved. The development of the rail infrastructure is ongoing, and the railway system will be in a good working condition in the TREND scenario. In the REG scenario small pieces will be added which particularly leads up to the Kaliningrad Region. Port capacity will be extended in the TREND scenario. The development of the port is necessitated by the increasing trade also with the countries behind Poland, Ukraine and Belarus. Gdansk will work as a possible import export port also for these countries. Gdansk is connected to the Baltic motorway of the Sea. The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to important places like Warsaw, Poznan and Katowice. In the LIB scenario congestion problems could be foreseen on some stretches of the main road system. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls applicable to all roads. They will be

96 Scenario Analysis 95 compatible with the tolls applied by the public private enterprises constructing a number of the Polish expressways. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. Gdansk is mainly a national transport hub taking care of liquid and fluid bulk in and out of Poland. Therefore, interoperability is mainly a national question in Gdansk. It is foreseen that the compatibility of rail systems will in general improve in the TREND and particularly in the REG alternative. An improvement of the administrative regulations concerning trains will be a big advantage, and may result in more goods on the railways crossing the land borders of Poland. Toll collection systems for road transport will be introduced at a national level. Presently systems are in operation on certain toll roads, but this system will be extended to the complete country. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Intermodal operation is mainly a national issue in Gdansk Port of Gdynia Gdynia is a city with 250,000 inhabitants located in the same geographical region as Gdansk. Gdynia is a university city and is also an important transport hub for intermodal transport. The port has a turnover of 10.4 m tons of which nearly 7 m tons are related to container trade. Sustainable development GNP and trade in Poland have high growth rates in the TREND scenario, and increase is even bigger in the LIB scenario. Population is in general decreasing in Poland, but will remain stable in the Gdynia area in the TREND scenario. In The LIB scenario population is expected to increase in this area, while it is expected to decrease slightly in the REG scenario. Employment will develop fast mainly because the employment frequency will be increasing from the present 60% to the expected

97 Scenario Analysis 96 70% in Also income is expected to raise, and therefore car ownership will increase substantial in the LIB scenario, but also in the two other scenarios. Emissions are expected to increase in the area in the TREND scenario, and even further in the LIB scenario. Only in the REG scenario are emissions expected to decrease. Noise will be increasing with the traffic flow, and therefore noise will be an environmental problem in the LIB scenario. As for traffic accidents they are assumed to increase slightly in the area in the TREND scenario, but increase even more in the LIB scenario. Traffic accidents will be reduced in the REG scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cohesion and trans-national co-operation is in general promoted in all scenarios. For Gdynia the main improvement is related to rehabilitation work on the existing railway to Warsaw and the railway to Katowice and improvement of the motorway from Gdansk to Katowice. Cohesion will mainly be improved with the Kaliningrad area via the Via Hanseatica being constructed in the LIB scenario. In the TREND scenario the ferry link between Karlskrona and Gdynia is being further developed. In the LIB scenario access to Karlskrona is improved by use of fast ferries able to make the trip from Karlskrona to Gdynia in 6 hours in stead of the present 10.5 hours. In the LIB scenario a number of airline routes are developed using Gdansk Lech Walesa Airport as a base. The airport is located 30 km south of Gdynia close to the motorway. The access road to the airport is in good condition. No rail service is foreseen, but bus services are working in the TREND, LIB and REG scenarios. The REG scenario envisages an unchanged use of the airport compared to Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. The major difference on the LIB and REG scenario is that LIB foresees development of road infrastructure in a bigger scale than development of rail infrastructure, whereas it is opposite in REG. The main development of importance for Gdynia is improvement of the E75 (A5) from Gdansk to Katowice and development of the main road from Gdansk to Warsaw. In the LIB scenario further the road from Gdynia to Szczecin (Via Hanseatica) is improved. The development of the rail infrastructure is ongoing, and the railway system will be in a good working condition in the TREND scenario. In the REG scenario small pieces will be added which particularly leads up to the Kaliningrad Region. Port capacity will be extended in the TREND scenario. The development of the port is necessitated by the increasing trade also with the countries behind Poland, Ukraine and Belarus. Gdynia will work as a possible import export port for unitised goods also for these countries. Gdynia is connected to the Baltic motorway of the Sea.

98 Scenario Analysis 97 The improved accessibility will result in reduced travel time to important places like Warsaw, Poznan and Katowice. In the LIB scenario congestion problems could be foreseen on some stretches of the main road system. In the REG scenario a higher flexibility concerning transfer of unaccompanied units from the ferry to railwagons is envisaged. Use of rail ferry transfer is not foreseen in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario travel time by road will be reduced slightly because of the new stricter speed limits. Transport costs for road transport increase in the TREND scenario, remain unchanged relative to 2003 in LIB and increase sharply in REG. All scenarios envisage road tolls applicable to all roads. They will be compatible with the tolls applied by the public private enterprises constructing a number of the Polish expressways. Fuel prices are expected to increase in TREND and REG. Tolls and fuel prices are highest in the REG scenario and transport costs increases the most in this scenario. Rail operation is generally improved in the three scenarios because the rail infrastructure is improved. Transport costs with rail in the REG scenario is expected to be lower than in Improve interoperability Interoperable transport systems facilitate development of transport chains and use of intermodal transport. Gdynia is the most important container hub in Poland and interoperability is important both in the context of Ssea Land and Land land transport. It is foreseen that the compatibility of rail systems will in general improve in the TREND and particularly in the REG alternative. An improvement of the administrative regulations concerning trains will be a big advantage, and may result in more goods on the railways crossing the land borders of Poland. Toll collection systems for road transport will be introduced at a national level. Presently systems are in operation on certain toll roads, but this system will be extended to the complete country. Intermodal operability ensures that a unit load can be transferred without any problem from one mode to another mode. This is the key to success for the intermodal transport, and has an effect on the modal split. It is assumed that modal split in the TREND scenario is close to the existing situation, that the rail mode loses market shares in the LIB scenario and that the rail mode increases its share in the REG scenario. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport Being the most important intermodal hub in Poland the competitiveness is increased by a more efficient handling of the intermodal uints. In The TREND scenario it is foreseen that there is an increase in intermodal operations and improvement of the terminals. It is foreseen that Gdynia

99 Scenario Analysis 98 will handle about 2 m. TEUs in 2020, and facilities have to be established for doing so Port of Baltiysk Baltyisk is located to the west of Kaliningrad on the Baltic Sea coast at Vistula Spit at the entrance into Kaliningrad Gulf. Accessibility to Baltijsk is better than to Kaliningrad, because the long trip through the canal (42 km) is not necessary. Baltijsk, however, is still a military area with restricted access. This hampers the development of the municipality and the port. The Russian government made Kaliningrad a special Economic Zone in 1992 because the development in Kaliningrad was lacking the Russian development in general. Baltijsk has not been able to benefit from this economic status due to the presence of the military in the Municipality. There is a potential for development of the port because it is possible to save the long trip in the Kaliningrad Canal. The Kaliningrad ports had a turnover in 2004 of 14 m. tons. Baltijsk is a small city of 30,000 people (2004). The workforce is about 13,000, and the major part of the employed persons is military personnel. Official figures for unemployment are low, but it is believed that this does not reflect the actual situation. A new ferry port has been planned north of Baltijsk, with ferry connections direct to Ust-Luga near St. Petersburg. Both conventional ferry services (48 hours service time) and fast ferry services (15 hours service time) are being planned. Sustainable development The economic development in Kaliningrad is expected to be around 5% in the TREND scenario. As an exclave in Russia Kaliningrad region has some specific advantages in relation to the rest of Russia, mainly linked to establishing industries and transport companies which can serve both the Russian and European market. Military presence has been reduced, making the exclave less a military stronghold and rather more a business area for new businesses establishing themselves in Russia. Therefore, Kaliningrad is extremely dependent on availability of good infrastructure both in terms of physical and economic infrastructure. It is foreseen that in 2020 this is well underway in the TREND scenario, and has developed even further in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario there has been established a board of co-operation with the surrounding countries and this has resulted in the development of a normal gauge rail line from north to south through Kaliningrad region. The wide gauge railway from Baltijsk to Minsk and Smolensk has been preserved through Lithuania, providing an easy access between Kaliningrad and Belarus and Russia. Due to the decrease in military presence in Baltijsk population has been reduced to 20,000 in the TREND and LIB scenarios. In the REG scenario the population decrease is not as big as in the TREND. Employ-

100 Scenario Analysis 99 ment is increasing in all scenarios, most in the LIB scenario and least in the REG scenario. Car ownership is increasing in all scenarios, but most in the LIB scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Baltijsk s location on the coast of the Baltic Sea makes it an ideal place for ferry connections to other regions in the Baltic Sea and further. The ferry route between Ust-Luga and Baltijsk and further on to Neu Mukran was initiated in 2006, and in the TREND scenario this ferry route has grown in importance, making a direct link between Russia and Germany. The route is expected to be in operation in all scenarios. A new route linking Baltijsk and Karlshamn is also in operation in all scenarios, improving direct connection between Kaliningrad and Sweden. Baltijsk is located far from the important land borders with Poland and Lithuania, but after improvement of the road network to Kaliningrad it is easier to reach the other countries. Improve accessibility The present condition of the A193 access road between Baltijsk and Kaliningrad needs improvement in order for the ferry port to be in proper operation. In all scenarios this road has been improved and provides good access to Baltijsk. This is also valid for improvement of the railway. Therefore it is possible to send rail goods with ferry boat to both Ust-Luga and Neu Mukran. In Neu Mukran there is re-axling equipment for changing boogies. In the LIB scenario the Via Hanseatica has been established. This creates a very fast access to and from Kaliningrad via the road network, but at the same time erodes on the ship transport between Baltijsk and Neu Mukran, which can easily be served by the new highway. In the REG scenario the rail network has been improved and is now able to provide an efficient service linking Kaliningrad to Klaipeda and Elblag via a European gauge railway. This leaves Baltijsk as the main port for loading and unloading goods from wide gauge rail material. Local transport is being managed mainly with buses in this scenario. Operating costs for road transport reflect the diesel price which increases considerable in TREND, remain at the 2003 level in LIB and is very high in REG. Use of road infrastructure remains free in Kaliningrad in all scenarios for Russian vehicles. A charge is levied for using the main transit highways and railways. This applies to all scenarios. The port of Baltijsk has been improved in all scenarios to take over some of the goods which were shipped to Kaliningrad in In the REG scenario a major distribution/consolidation terminal for the south Baltic area has been constructed near Klaipeda, and this terminal provide goods and services to both Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus and Kaliningrad. The port of Baltijsk has, however, its own terminal mainly for use in the Russian import and export.

101 Scenario Analysis 100 Improve interoperability Baltijsk is an obvious location for development of transport chains. And the concept of transport chains is well-developed in Russia in All scenarios foresee a strong development in interoperability around the port of Baltijsk. This will be valid for both road sea road and rail sea rail. Russian rail transit has gained in importance, and particular the direct rail link from Baltijsk Kaliningrad area to Minsk and Smolensk has developed a considerable potential. The development in the Klaipeda mega terminal in the REG scenario has meant that the port of Klaipeda has gained more importance in the East Baltic goods distribution. However, containers destined for Russia are also shipped in great numbers through the port of Baltijsk. In the REG scenario negotiations with EU has resulted in construction of a transit line through Kaliningrad Oblast connecting the Baltic states with Poland on a direct link along the coast. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport As is indicated above the use of terminals is being favoured by construction of a new ferry terminal in Baltijsk. The linking of the different transport modes is therefore made easy and competitiveness of intermodal transport is being strengthened Port of Klaipeda Klaipeda is the biggest city in the Klaipeda region, and the third largest city in Lithuania. Population in Klaipeda is about 190,000 in 2005 and the population has been declining for the last 15 years. Klaipeda is the main centre on the Baltic coast, and the gateway to the enormous beach area lying to the south of the city. Klaipeda has a workforce of about 80,000 and an unemployment of 14 % in During million tons of cargo was handled in Klaipeda port, i.e. by 4.5 % less than in % of the turnover was loaded, while only about 25% was unloaded. 6.4 million tons of oil products were handled in Klaipeda port in 2004, i.e. by 3 % less than in Handling of oil products was influenced by discontinuity of oil products supply from Russia. Handling of metals and ferroalloys, scrap-iron, perishable products increased in 2004 in comparison with the year The reason for this is supposed to be the earlier (among the Eastern Baltic ports) establishment of veterinary inspection stations in Klaipeda port meeting EU requirements. Goods through the port of Klaipeda are mainly Lithuanian goods (2/3) and Belarussian goods (20%). This is a major change from 1997 where Russian transit goods made up about 50% of the goods shipped through Klaipeda. The main reason for the decrease of transit cargo is the Russian policy of diverting its cargo to Russian ports and applying different

102 Scenario Analysis 101 railway tariffs for the cargo transported to Russian ports and to the ports of other countries. About 7,000 railway wagons are shipped via Klaipeda to Neu Mukran in The number of vehicles and semi-trailers were about 150,000 on destinations to Germany, Sweden and Denmark. The port handled about 170,000 containers in 2004, and there seems to be a steep increase in this segment. Sustainable development The economic development in Lithuania is expected to around 5% in the TREND scenario. Klaipeda is geared for exploiting the economic possibilities set in the scenarios. Therefore, the general economic development in Klaipeda is faster than for Lithuania as such. In the TREND scenario an economic growth of 6 % is expected, whereas this growth increases further to 8 % in LIB. The major focus on Kyoto protocol in REG reduces the growth to about 5%. The population is expected to continue its decrease in the TREND scenario. The high economic growth in the LIB stimulates the fertility and the population starts to grow. This is also helped by the prosperity of the Klaipeda region. In the REG scenario there is a movement of people from the rural areas towards the city, and therefore, the population remain stable on the 2005 level. Employment is also developing. The high unemployment known in the beginning of the century has decreased in all scenarios. In the LIB scenario a number of national and foreign companies have established themselves in Klaipeda. In the REG scenario the development of the service sector create a major impetus for employment. Car ownership is increasing in all scenarios, but most in the LIB scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Klaipeda s location close to Kaliningrad and Latvia makes the city s prosperity dependent not only on the national development but also on the development in the neighbouring countries and the possibilities to trade unhindered across the border. In the TREND scenario communication and cohesion with Latvia is improved, but is still lacking with Kaliningrad. In both the LIB and the REG scenarios the cohesion is improved also with Kaliningrad, including easier access because of major infrastructure investments, but also because of reduction of the regulation at the borders in terms of visa and other types of papers. Klaipeda is expected to maintain its ferry connections to Denmark and Sweden in all scenarios. In the LIB scenario the ferry link between Mukran and Klaipeda is replaced with road transport along the new via Hanseatica motorway. Palanga airport is served by a number of low cost airlines in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario there are still a few airlines left, but the major international travel to and from Klaipeda is carried out by rail and bus.

103 Scenario Analysis 102 Improve accessibility The present condition of the A1 and A2 motorways are good, but the motorways are used not only by motorised vehicles. However, the linking of the motorway system with Klaipeda and particularly the port of Klaipeda needs improvement. This is also the case for the rail infrastructure. In the TREND scenario the Baltic rail link and the Baltic road link has been established. In the LIB scenario both the Baltic road link and the Via Hanseatica have been established. This creates a very fast access to and from Klaipeda via the road network, but at the same time erodes on the ship transport between Klaipeda and Neu Mukran and Rostock, which can easily be served by the new highway. In the REG scenario only limited resources have been used for development of the road network. In stead the rail network has been improved and is now able to provide an efficient service linking Klaipeda both to the major national nodes and also providing efficient access to Minsk and Kaliningrad and further. Local transport is being managed mainly with buses in this scenario, but express trains are serving the main route from Klaipeda to Vilnius. Operating costs for road transport reflect the diesel price which increases considerable in TREND, remain at the 2003 level in LIB and is very high in REG. The policy pursued in the beginning of the century of toll roads has been abolished in the LIB scenario, but a general payment system for road charges have been introduced in Lithuania based on GPS technology. In the REG scenario the general GPS system has been introduced and the road charges are high reflecting the need to limit emissions of CO2. Therefore, there is also a graduation of the charges related to the fuel system in the different vehicles. In all scenarios rail infrastructure charges are being used. The charges introduced in 2005 (average cost charges) are preserved in the LIB scenario, that means the rail transport pays for investments, maintenance and operation of the system. In the TREND scenario this has been modified in line with other EU countries charging only for the marginal costs of maintenance and operation. And in the REG scenario the rail transport mode is obtaining subsidies in order to make the rail transport a viable alternative to road transport. The port of Klaipeda is being improved in all scenarios in order to facilitate the growing demand for import and export in Lithuania and Belarus. In the REG scenario a major distribution/consolidation terminal for the south Baltic area has been constructed near Klaipeda, and this terminal provide goods and services to both Lithuania, Latvia, Belarus and Kaliningrad. Improve interoperability Klaipeda is an obvious location for development of transport chains. Therefore all scenarios foresee a strong development in interoperability around the port of Klaipeda. This will be valid for both road sea road and rail sea rail. Already in the beginning of the century an intermo-

104 Scenario Analysis 103 dal shuttle concept (Viking) were invoked on the link between Klaipeda and Odessa. This has been further developed in all scenarios. Russian rail transit has dwindled, but has been replaced with transit from Ukraine and Belarus, two countries with fast growing production and trade in the LIB scenario. In the REG scenario Klaipeda has still a role to play in the goods transport for these two countries, but because of trade restrictions the volumes are smaller. The development in the Klaipeda mega terminal in the REG scenario has meant that the port of Klaipeda has gained more importance in the East Baltic goods distribution. Container traffic is developing fast and Klaipeda is an important containerhub for the east Baltic trade. A major point of discussion has been a refurbishment of the railway system from the Russian wide gauge to the European normal gauge. In the REG scenario this development is encouraged by EU, meaning a major reconstruction work on the railways in Latvia and Lithuania. This also leaves Kaliningrad as an island in the European rail system. A transitline is built through Kaliningrad Oblast connecting the Baltic states with Poland on a direct link along the coast. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport As is indicated above the use of terminals is being favoured by construction of a new transport centre in Klaipeda. The linking of the different transport modes is therefore made easy and competitiveness of intermodal transport is being strengthened Port of Liepaja Liepaja is the third biggest city in Latvia. The Liepaja region with about 140,000 people consitute almost half of the population in the Kurzeme region. Liepaja it self has about 85,000 inhabitants (2005). The population has been declining over the last 15 years. In 2002 the number of employees were about 30,000. Unemployment in Liepaja is about 13% (2003). Liepaja has an important port with a turnover of about 4.9 m. tons in Cargo sent by railway from Liepaja amounts to about 5.3 m. tons. The major volumes are distributed nationally. The most important employment sectors in Liepaja is manufacturing, public and private service and transport. Liepaja has regular ferry and RORO connection with Rostock and Karlshamn. Sustainable development Liepaja is geared for exploiting the economic possibilities set in the scenarios. Therefore, the general economic development in Liepaja is faster than for Latvia as such. In the TREND scenario an economic growth of 6 % is expected, whereas this growth increases further to 8 % in LIB. The major focus on Kyoto protocol in REG reduces the growth to about 5%.

105 Scenario Analysis 104 The population is expected to continue its decrease in the TREND scenario. The high economic growth in the LIB stimulates the fertility and the population starts to grow. This is also helped by the prosperity of the Liepaja region. In the REG scenario there is a movement of people from the rural areas towards the city, and therefore, the population remain stable on the 2005 level. Employment is also developing. The high unemployment known in the beginning of the century has decreased in all scenarios. In the LIB scenario a number of foreign companies have established themselves in Liepaja. In the REG scenario the possibilities for developing bio-fuel and other non-emitting power supply are being investigated and converted into production. Car ownership is increasing in all scenarios, but most in the LIB scenario. Cohesion and trans-national co-operation Cross-border cohesion is related to the development of the ferry routes and to the improvement of connections between Liepaja and Palanga in Lithuania. In the TREND scenario it is foreseen that the existing ferry routes is in operation. It is envisaged that the increase in trade between Latvia and Scandinavia has lead to increased frequencies. In the LIB scenario the main roads from Liepaja to both Riga and Palanga have been improved, thus creating good opportunities for easy access across the Latvian Lithuanian border. The construction of Via Hanseatica and the easier transfer across the borders of Kaliningrad have resulted in road transport having taken over the traffic which was formerly using the Liepaja Rostock route. A certain concentration has also happened at the new transport centre in Klaipeda, which has eroded some of the port traffic in Liepaja. However, the general economic development has lead to an increase in the turnover on the port in this scenario. Passenger transport is facilitated by a number of low cost air routes. The Liepaja airport has a number of routes to Germany and Scandinavia. In the REG scenario passenger transport is facilitated with the development of rail and bus connections. The railway system has been improved and is able to offer attractive connections to Lithuania and further to Poland and Germany. The ferries operating across the Baltic Sea are still in operation. Improve accessibility In all scenarios the infrastructure will be extended and improved. In the TREND scenario the Baltic rail link and the Baltic road link has been established. In the LIB scenario both the Baltic road link and the Via Hanseatica have been established. This creates a very elaborated highway system in the Baltic states on which the Liepaja and Kurzeme region is also attached via a new road from Liepaja to Daugavpils. In the REG scenario only limited resources have been used for development of the road network. In stead the rail network has been improved and is now able to provide an efficient service linking Liepaja both to the ma-

106 Scenario Analysis 105 jor national nodes and also linking Liepaja to major international nodes in Lithuania, Poland and Germany. Local transport is being managed mainly with buses in this scenario. Operating costs for road transport reflect the diesel price which increases considerable in TREND, remain at the 2003 level in LIB and is very high in REG. The policy pursued in the beginning of the century of toll roads has been abolished in the LIB scenario, but a general payment system for road charges have been introduced in Latvia based on GPS technology. In the REG scenario the general GPS system has been introduced and the road charges are high reflecting the need to limit emissions of CO2. Therefore, there is also a graduation of the charges related to the fuel system in the different vehicles. In all scenarios rail infrastructure charges are being used. The charges applicable in 2003 (average cost charges) are preserved in the LIB scenario, that means the rail transport pays for investments, maintenance and operation of the system. In the TREND scenario this has been modified in line with other EU countries charging only for the marginal costs of maintenance and operation. And in the REG scenario the rail transport mode is obtaining subsidies in order to make the rail transport a viable alternative to road transport. The port of Liepaja is being improved in all scenarios in order to facilitate the growing demand for import and export in Latvia. However, in the REG scenario a major distribution/consolidation terminal has been constructed near Klaipeda in Lithuania, and this terminal provide goods and services to both Latvia and Kaliningrad. Improve interoperability Liepaja is an obvious location for development of transport chains. Therefore all scenarios foresee a strong development in interoperability around the port of Liepaja. This will be valid for both road sea road and rail sea rail. The development in the Liepaja Special Economic Zone is facilitated by the development of a terminal able to handle rail goods, port goods and road goods. In 2003 about 5.3 m. tons of rail goods were handled on this terminal, but this has increased in the TREND scenario to an amount of 10 m. tons. In he LIB scenario there is still an interaction between the three transport modes, however, the majority of the goods is sent by road. In the REG scenario the Liepaja terminal acts as a sub terminal to the major cargo centre in Klaipeda. But the turnover on the Liepaja terminal is considerable. A major point of discussion has been a refurbishment of the railway system from the Russian wide gauge to the European normal gauge. In the REG scenario this development is encouraged by EU, meaning a major reconstruction work on the railways in Latvia and Lithuania. This also leaves Kaliningrad as an island in the European rail system. A transitline is built through Kaliningrad Oblast connecting the Baltic states with Poland on a direct link along the coast. Strengthen competitiveness of intermodal transport

107 Scenario Analysis 106 As is indicated above the use of terminals is being favoured by construction of new terminals and transport centres in Liepaja and Klaipeda. The linking of the different transport modes is therefore made easy and competitiveness of intermodal transport is being strengthened.