Cruise Baltic MARKET REVIEW 2016

Transcription

1 Cruise Baltic MARKET REVIEW 2016

2 Introduction Cruise Baltic is a network of 10 countries with 29 cruise destinations in the Baltic Sea. Three additional destinations (St. Petersburg, Kiel and Riga) have been included in the analysis to achieve a full view of the entire region. The purpose of this report is to present an updated view of the developments in the cruise sector in the Baltic Sea Region, including data on passengers, calls and turnarounds. The information presented in this report is based on a collection of data among ports in the Baltic Sea Region as of February The report presents the actual developments until 2015 and the expected numbers for 2016.

3 Summary In 2015 cruise business in the Baltic Sea had an increase in the number of passengers visiting the region, amounting to a total number of pax. The region experienced negative growth rates within calls and turnarounds. In 2015: - The total number of passengers increased by 0,5% - The total number of calls decreased -8,7% - The total number of turnarounds decreased by -3,1% Estimates for 2016 are positive, predicting increase in all figures. In 2016: - The total number of passengers will increase by 2,0% - The total number of calls will increase by 1,2% - The total number of turnarounds will increase by 11,1%

4 Passengers The number of passengers visiting the Cruise Baltic destinations in 2015 increased by 0,5% compared to number of passengers in NUMBER OF PASSENGERS From the number of passengers increased by an average annual rate of 9,7% per year (from 1,1 mill. in 2000 to 4,3 mill. in 2015). Expected number of passengers in 2016 is increasing (2,0%) compared to 2015 with an increase of pax % ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN NUMBER OF PASSENGERS Average annual growth rate: 9,2 pct. p.a. 40% 15% 22% 7% 1% 19% 14% 16% 4% 8% (est) 1% 2% -2% -1% -2% (est)

5 Calls NUMBER OF CALLS The number of calls decreased in 2015 by -8,7% from in 2014 to in From the number of calls increased by an average annual rate of 2,6% per year (from in 2000 to in 2015) (est) The Cruise Baltic ports anticipate an increase of 1,2% in the total number of calls and expects calls in % ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN NUMBER OF CALLS 30% 26% Average annual growth rate: 2,5 pct. p.a. 20% 10% 0% 5% 8% 16% 5% 4% 8% 6% 1% 1% -10% -20% -4% -6% -4% -7% -5% -9% (est)

6 Turnarounds The number of turnarounds decreased by -3,1% from 2014 to 2015, from a total of 420 to 407 turnarounds. An increase of 11,1% is expected in 2016 (from 407 in 2015 to an estimated 452 in 2016). From the number of turnarounds increased by an average annual rate of 6,9% per year (from 106 in 2000 to 422* in 2015). * Turnaround numbers from Kiel and Lübeck-Travemünde unavailable for the parts of the period are therefore not included in this average annual growth rate calculation % 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -5% -11% 37% -10% NUMBER OF TURNAROUNDS ANNUAL GROWTH RATE IN NUMBER OF TURNAROUNDS 37% 30% 2% 14% 0% 11% 9% 4% 0% -5% -3% (est) Average annual growth rate: 7.1 pct. p.a. 11% (est)

7 Cruise Baltic Segments Small (0-24 calls) Gdansk (24), Aalborg (21), Rønne (21), Lübeck-Travemünde (19), Skagen (16), Mariehamn (11), Malmö (10), Helsingborg (10), Turku (8), Arendal (6), Saaremaa (5), Karlskrona (2), Kalmar (3), Fredericia (3), Elsinore (1), Kemi (1), Kotka (0) Medium (25-49 calls) Visby (49), Klaipeda (48), Gothenburg (35), Aarhus (26) Large ( calls) Rostock (184), Kiel (140), Oslo (78), Riga (61), Kristiansand (59) X-Large (200+ calls) Copenhagen (304), Tallinn (282), St. Petersburg (281), Stockholm (250), Helsinki (243) Based on 2016 calls. Compared to 2015 Gothenburg, Klaipeda and Visby who moved from the large segment to the medium segment. Gdansk moved from the medium segment to the small segment. Kristiansand moved up from the medium segment to the large segment.

8 Top 5: Most Passengers 2015 Copenhagen is the largest port in terms of passengers though it has experienced a -8,4% decrease in passengers in 2015 compared to Stockholm has had the highest growth rate of 12,8% growing from passengers in 2014 to passengers in Tallinn also experienced positive growth rates of 4,5% moving from passengers in 2014 to passengers in Rostock, St. Petersburg and Copenhagen experienced declines in Tallinn (500,622) St. Petersburg ( ) (-1,4%) Stockholm ( ) (12,8%) Copenhagen ( ) (-8,4%) (4,5%) Expectations for 2016 are positive, only Tallinn is expecting a decrease by -0,1%. Stockholm will remain stable while Rostock, St. Petersburg and Copenhagen will grow (5,6%, 0,9% and 9,3%). Rostock ( ) (-4,7%)

9 Top 5: Most Calls 2015 The number of calls in 2015 decreased in all five of the Top 5 ports. Copenhagen decreased the most with -9,6%, St. Petersburg by -9,5%, Tallinn by -5,7%, Stockholm by -5,3% and Helsinki decreased by -2,7% is expected to be more stable, Copenhagen, Tallinn and Stockholm will grow with respectively 7,4%, 0,7% and 0,4%. St. Petersburg will decrease by -1,4% and Helsinki will decrease the most by -4,3%. Helsinki (254) Tallinn (280) (-5,7%) Copenhagen (283) (-9,6%) St. Petersburg (285) (-9,5%) The Top 5 ports amount to calls out of the total calls in 2015, accounting for 62,1% of all calls. Stockholm (249) (-5,3%) (-2,7%)

10 Top 5: Most Turnarounds 2015 The Top 5 turnaround ports are the same in 2015 as they were in Copenhagen has experienced a slight decrease of -3,1%, Rostock had a decrease of -4,0% and Malmö had a decrease of -30,0% (3 calls). Kiel grew by 8,3% while Stockholm grew the most by 26,2% (9 calls). Expectations for 2016 will increase in all of the ports. 11,2% for Copenhagen, 10,2% for Kiel, 4,2% for Rostock, 5,7% for Stockholm and 14,3% for Malmö. Aarhus expects to have 14 part-turnarounds in 2016 which would make them the fifth biggest turnaround port. Malmö Stockholm (53) (26,2%) Rostock (95) (-4,0%) Including 57 part turnarounds Kiel (118) (8,3%) Including 15 part turnarounds Copenhagen (125) (-3,1%) Including 32 part turnarounds (7) (-30,0%)

11 The Large Segment ( calls) The Large segment consists of Rostock (184), Kiel (140), Oslo (78), Riga (61) and Kristiansand (59). The segment grew in passenger numbers 0,3% in 2015 and is expected to increase 0,1% in Rostock decreased by -4,7%, Oslo by -15% and Kristiansand by -42,3%. Kiel increased by 29,6% and Riga by 14,8%. Between them, the destinations had 516 calls in 2015 and will increase with 1,2% in 2016 to 522 calls. Rostock, Oslo and Kiel had turnarounds in 2015 respectively 95, 2, and 118. In 2016 only Rostock (99) and Kiel (130) will have turnarounds. PASSENGER GROWTH est. 50% 25% 0% -25% -5% 5% -15%-22% 30% -2% 24% 18% 15% -50% -42% Rostock Oslo Kiel Kristiansand Riga

12 The Medium Segment (25-49 calls) The medium segment consist of Visby (49), Klaipeda (48), Gothenburg (35) and Aarhus (26). The segment decreased in passenger numbers by -8,1% in 2015 but expect to increase 5,3% in Gothenburg decreased by -7,4% and Visby by -30,6%. Klaipeda and Aarhus both grew by 4,2% and 10,9%. Between them, the destinations had 162 calls in 2015 and will decrease with -2,5% in 2016 to 158 calls. 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% PASSENGER GROWTH est. 30% 4% 11% -7% 167,7% -17% -39% -31% Gothenburg Klaipeda Aarhus Visby

13 The Small Segment (0-24 calls) STRONG GROWTH IN % The small segment consists of Gdansk (24), Aalborg (21), Rønne (21), Lübeck-Travemünde (19), Skagen (16), Mariehamn (11), Malmö (10), Helsingborg (10), Turku (8), Arendal (6), Saaremaa (5), Karlskrona (2), Kalmar (3), Fredericia (3), Elsinore (1), Kemi (1), Kotka (0). Turku (0 to 7.500) Aalborg (1.499,6%, 793 to ) Arendal (733,33%, 630 to 5.250) Fredericia (462,0%, to ) Kemi (395,0%, 505 to 2.500) Skagen (189,4%, to 21,888) Overall the passenger figures in the small segment increased by 11,2% in The segment is characterized by great variation with 6 destinations growing more than 100% and 8 destinations decreasing. Passenger numbers for 2016 overall is expected to grow by 11%. The segment had 145 calls in 2015, a -7,1% decrease from Calls are expected to go up in 2016 by 11,0% to 161 calls. GROWTH IN 2015 Helsingborg (39,6%, to 6.700) Lübeck-Travemünde (5,4%, to ) DECREASE IN 2015 Elsinore (-88,2%, to 200) Karlskrona (-81,4%, to 600) Kalmar (-78,1%, to 328) Rønne (-74,4%, to 7.885) Saaremaa (-51,7%, to 3.623) Gdansk (-27,8%, to ) Mariehamn (-15,0%, to 5.500) Malmö (-2,5%, to )

14 Definitions and Terminology What is a cruise? A Cruise is a voyage of at least 60 hours by a seagoing vessel, mainly for pleasure. No cargo/rolling stock will be transported but only passengers with tickets that should include accommodation and all meals. The Cruise voyage must include at least two visiting ports apart from the starting and ending port. This definition is based on Cruise Europe s definition. Number of passengers Counted according to Cruise Europe s definition, i.e. turnaround passengers count double and stopovers count single. Terminology When a ship enters a port, it "calls". The number of calls in a port is hence the number of ships visiting that port. A call is called a turnaround*, if the passengers leave the ship at the port and new passengers board the ship. A cruise tourist is a person buying a cruise trip. A cruise includes visits to several cities/ports; each time the tourist is counted as a passenger in that city/port (a passenger visit). If the cruise tourist stays on the ship for 7 nights and visits 5 cities/ports, he or she is counted as 1 tourist, but as a passenger 5 times with 7 bed-days (on board the ship). In this report we look at passengers and port visits. *Turnarounds also include part-turnarounds. A call is defined as a part-turnaround if at least 25%, but not all of the passengers leave the ship and new passengers board.

15 Contact Information Cruise Baltic Nørregade 7B DK-1465 Copenhagen K Denmark Phone: