Investment in developing countries' food and agriculture: Assessing agricultural capital stocks and their impact on productivity

Transcription

1 Investment in developing countries' food and agriculture: Assessing agricultural capital stocks and their impact on productivity Gustavo Anriquez (FAO), Hartwig de Haen, Oleg Nivyevskiy & Stephan von Cramon Taubadel (University of Göttingen) FAO Expert Meeting, June 24 26,

2 Outline 1. Objective 2. Approaches to measuring the agricultural capital stock 3. Results 4. The agricultural capital stock and productivity 5. Main conclusions 2

3 Objective To assess capital stocks and capital formation in developing countries food and agriculture A comprehensive measure of the ACS would include physical and human capital on farms in relevant infrastructure in agricultural research, education and technology dissemination in up and downstream industries 3

4 Approaches to measuring the ACS 1) Based on physical inventories in FAOSTAT First use in WAT 2010 exercise (1995) for selected countries, later extended to all countries Covers land, livestock, machinery and structures Land = arable + permanent crops + irrigated Livestock = 9 different types Machinery = tractors, harvesters, milking machines & hand tools Structures based on livestock numbers Quantities multiplied with 1995 US$ prices taken from FAOSTAT, country reports, trade data We have updated and extended (1975 to 2007) 4

5 Approaches to measuring the ACS 2) Based on national accounts Developed by Crego et al. (1998) (57 countries from 1967 to 1992) Covers fixed capital in agriculture, treestock and livestock Capital stock = weighted sum of past investments using the perpetual inventory method Livestock = quantity * regional unit export value Treestock = present value of discounted future net revenues Replicated and extended by Anriquez & Daidone to cover 76 countries from 1967 to

6 Approaches to measuring the ACS 1) FAOSTAT inventory approach global balanced panel but: constant prices essentially a volume index only considers assets covered in FAOSTAT 2) National accounts approach theoretically consistent, broader coverage an attempt to estimate the value of capital in each year but: incomplete coverage over countries and time an unbalanced panel 6

7 Approaches to measuring the ACS Number of countries covered by... Region National accountsbased estimates FAOSTAT based estimates East Asia & Pacific 4 42 Europe & Central Asia 6 25 Latin Am. & Caribbean Near East & North Africa 7 22 South Asia 3 7 Sub Saharan Africa High income OECD High income non OECD 6 7 Total

8 Results: 1) The fixed capital stock in primary agriculture has been growing at a declining rate over the last three decades (1.1% p.a. from ; 0.5% p.a. from ) Total ACS (billion 1995 US$) Developing countries Developed countries

9 Results: 2) The gap between higher rates of ACS growth in developing countries and lower rates in developed countries grew in the 1980s and 1990s, but is closing 2,0 Average annual rate of growth (%) 1,5 1,0 0,5 0,0 0,5 1, World Developed Developing 9

10 Results: 3) Rates of growth in the stock of improved agricultural land continue to decline while rates of growth in other components are increasing since the mid/late 1990s 2,0 Total Land Livestock Machines Structures Average annual rate of growth (%) 1,5 1,0 0,5 0, ,5 10

11 Results: 4) ACS growth has lagged behind growth of the agriculture working population in Sub Saharan Africa and South Asia, leading to falling capital/labour ratios Region annual rate of growth of capital stock in agriculture population active in agriculture...capital stock/person active in agriculture Latin America & Caribbean 1.29% 0.09% 1.37% Near East & North Africa 1.39% 0.86% 0.52% Sub Saharan Africa 1.57% 2.03% 0.46% East & Southeast Asia 1.75% 1.01% 0.74% South Asia 1.15% 1.43% 0.27% 11

12 Results: 5a) ACS growth has lagged behind growth of the agricultural working population in the countries with the highest prevalence of hunger Hunger prevalence category (only developing countries) annual rate of growth of capital stock in agriculture population active in agriculture...capital stock/person active in agriculture 1 (<5%) 1.21% 0.27% 0.93% 2 (5 9%) 1.88% 0.11% 2.00% 3 (10 19%) 1.83% 1.55% 0.28% 4 (20 34%) 1.22% 1.48% 0.25% 5 (>34%) 1.29% 2.16% 0.85% China (9%) 1.71% 0.96% 0.74% 12

13 Results: 5b) ACS growth has lagged behind growth of the agricultural working population in the countries with the highest depth of hunger Hunger depth category (only developing countries) capital stock in agriculture Annual rate of growth of population active in agriculture...capital stock/person active agriculture 1 (gap <7% of MDER) 0.73% 1.98% 2.76% 2 (7 9%) 1.53% 0.83% 0.69% 3 (10 12%) 1.53% 0.94% 0.59% 4 (>13%) 1.47% 1.77% 0.30% China (12.6%) 1.71% 0.96% 0.74% 13

14 Results: 6) Progress towards the WFS target of halving the number of hungry is positively correlated with growth in ACS per agricultural worker Madagascar Kenya DR Congo Countries making most progress towards WFS target Pakistan India Indonesia Tanzania Peru Yemen Ghana DPR Korea Viet Nam Thailand China Nigeria Countries with largest setbacks vis à vis WFS target Brazil Annual rate of growth in ACS per worker in agriculture (%) 14

15 Results: 7) Government expenditure on agriculture is positively correlated with ACS growth in a sample of 44 developing countries* 2,5 Growth in ACS/worker ( , in %) 2 1,5 1 0,5 0 Rep. of Korea Regression without Korea ,5 1 Government expenditure on agriculture per worker ( , in 1995 US$ logarithmic scale) * Data derived from IMF Government Finance Statistics and kindly made available by S. Fan 15

16 Results: 8a) Different approaches to estimating the ACS produce different results. Estimates based on national accounts are higher and more volatile 5000 Total ACS in developed countries (billion 1995 US$) 4000 Billion 1995 US$ National accounts FAOSTAT

17 Results: 8b) There is evidence of selection bias in the sample of countries covered in the national accounts based estimates of the ACS Hunger prevalence category # of countries in sample National accounts approach FAOSTAT inventories approach (full sample) FAOSTAT inventories approach (same countries as national accounts)

18 ACS and productivity: 1) Global agricultural TFP growth averaged 1.7% per annum between 1976 and 2001, with considerable variability between regions* Efficiency Technical change change TFP change World World (Rao et al., 2004) North America & Oceania Europe Transition North Africa & Near East Sub Saharan Africa Latin America Asia w/o China China * Calculations including data kindly made available by D.S.P Rao, T.J. Coelli and M. Alauddin. 18

19 ACS and productivity: 2) Higher rates of growth in the ACS per worker in agriculture are associated with higher rates of TFP growth for regional aggregates Annual rate of TFP growth ( , in %) Sub Saharan Africa 1 Asia w/o China 0 China N. America & Oceania Near East & N. Africa Latin America Transition countries Annual rate of growth in ACS per worker in agriculture ( , in %) Europe 19

20 Main conclusions 1. The fixed capital stock in primary agriculture has been growing at a declining rate over the last three decades 2. The gap between high rates of ACS growth in developing countries and low rates in developed countries grew in the 80s and 90s, but is closing 3. Capital/labour ratios have been falling in the countries with the highest prevalence and depth of hunger 4. Progress towards the WFS target of halving the number of hungry is positively correlated with growth in ACS per agricultural worker 5. Government expenditure on agriculture is positively correlated with ACS growth in a sample of 44 developing countries 6. Different approaches to estimating the ACS produce different results. A concerted effort to refine and reconcile different estimates is needed Thank you 20

21 Average annual worldwide rates of TFP growth ( , in %)* Efficiency Technical TFP change change change (Rao et al. 2004) * Calculations including data kindly made available by D.S.P Rao, T.J. Coelli and M. Alauddin (Rao et al., 2004) 21

22 Countries in hunger prevalence category 4 in both the national accounts and FAOSTAT datasets only in the FAOSTAT dataset 1. Bolivia 10. Grenada 19. Sudan 2. Botswana 11. Nicaragua 20. Cambodia 3. Dominican Rep. 12. Yemen 21. Timor-Leste 4. India 13. Cameroon 22. DPR Korea 5. Kenya 14. DR of Congo 23. Mongolia 6. Malawi 15. Djibouti 24. Bangladesh 7. Niger 16. Gambia 8. Pakistan 17. Guinea-Bissau 9. Sri Lanka 18. Senegal 22

23 Gross and net investment* in the ACS in developing countries (billion 1995 US$) * Net investment is the increase in the ACS from one year to next. Gross investment assumes a 5% annual rate of depreciation. 23

24 Components of the total ACS (billion 1995 US$) 24

25 Annual rates of ACS growth five year averages by region (%) Total period World Developed North America Western Europe Oceania Transition Developing Latin America & Carrib Near East & North Africa Sub-Saharan Africa East & Southeast Asia South Asia