c Sweden 12 May 2005

Transcription

1 c Sweden Strategy Update Swedish market focus Week 20 Sweden research Christian Wierup christian.wierup@carnegie.se Our expectations at Scania s presentation in Sao Paolo next week. What we think will be said on SKF s capital markets days. A short preview of our thoughts ahead of Atlas Copco s presentation in Sao Paolo next week. Macro - Our top-down macro profit indicators suggest profit growth will slow to 5 10% in There is still scope for profits to grow faster in 2005 and 2006 than the nominal GDP, as profit margins are below historical peaks and it will take longer than usual for a wage increase to pick up. Please see disclosures at the back of this report Carnegie Securities Research

2 Performance Sweden relative Nordic 280 Sweden relative Europe M J J A S O N D J F M A M Stockholm all share MSCI Nordic 190 M J J A S O N D J F M A M Stockholm all share MSCI Europe Source:Carnegie Research Source:Carnegie Research Sweden relative US Sweden relative world M J J A S O N D J F M A M Stockholm all share S&P 500 Source: Carnegie research 190 M J J A S O N D J F M A M Stockholm all share MSCI World Performance Absolute snapshot 1W 1M 3M 6M 12M Carnegie small cap (SE) % Carnegie large cap (SE) % Stockholm all share % MSCI Nordic % MSCI Europe % MSCI World % S&P 500 % CSXSE % CSXNORDIC % Carnegie Securities Research

3 Swedish focus areas Capital market days in Sao Paolo Next week, Atlas Copco, SKF and Scania will hold capital market days in Sao Paolo, Brazil. We do not expect any significant news from Atlas Copco, as only its regional managers and the CFO will be present, and as the area represents only a few percent of sales. The relative importance of the area for SKF is similar to that of Atlas Copco but the entire management team will be represented, thus there is a possibility that important news will be announced. We do not expect SKF to announce any changes to its targets or to change its outlook for Q2(05). It is more likely that the company will tackle specific areas of importance such as the growth strategy for the new product area Lubrication Systems. Latin America has relatively high importance for Scania, representing 16% of sales, with Brazil being an important production hub for sourcing to other emerging markets. Top management will not be present, thus no strategic news is likely to be announced, but comments on the Brazilian and Argentinean truck and bus market outlook could drive Scania s shares. Carnegie Securities Research 3

4 Weekly Macro Single-digit profit growth The US is in a phase of slowing productivity growth, which leads to slower profit growth. Our top-down macro profit indicators suggest profit growth will slow to 5 10% in There is still scope for profits to grow faster in 2005 and 2006 than the nominal GDP, as profit margins are below historical peaks and it will take longer than usual for a wage increase to pick up. Corporate profits are a leading indicator of economic activity and decisive for capex. Profits cannot grow faster than nominal GDP in the long term, but huge deviations from the trend are possible in the short term. Reducing costs in the early phases of recovery is easy, leads to a leap in productivity and, consequently, profit growth. Productivity growth slows later in recovery, as companies increase labour, as currently in the US: a better labour market also tends to increase wages, adding pressure to profit margins. We think there is still scope for profit growth in 2005, and probably 2006, above the nominal GDP. This is supported by our top-down indicators, which signal 5 10% profit growth. It is possible to increase profit margins further, as profits to GDP are below historical peaks. Total profits have climbed to 11.6% of GDP, compared with the historical average of 10.5% and the typical peak of ~13%. There are arguments suggesting profits could exceed historical peaks, as the threat of outsourcing will control wages for some time. Profits to GDP should therefore reach historical peak levels, at least. The consensus expects EPS growth for S&P500 companies of 12% in 2005 and 10% in Nominal average GDP growth in these years should be around 6%. So the market assumes profit growth almost double nominal GDP growth, which is too optimistic. Unit labour costs (ULC) take into account changes in productivity and wages, so have the strongest correlation with profits. Productivity growth slowed to 2.7% Y/Y in Q1 as companies began hiring, and wage costs increased due to higher benefit costs. ULC are currently up 2.3% Y/Y, suggesting profit growth will slow to 5 10% and indicating downside risk to earnings estimates. Productivity growth will not slow further in We think employers will be wary of increasing their labour forces due to the weaker order inflow and less certain economic outlook. Productivity is therefore likely to remain at 2.5% in 2005, and ULC will level out at current levels if our expectations for flat wage growth are realised. The slope of the yield has proved a reliable indicator for the profit trend and suggests profit growth of 5 10% in It therefore suggests the consensus view on corporate earnings is too optimistic. Our profit indicator, compiled from the ISM survey, holds up better, mainly due to the high price sub-index. It currently suggests Y/Y growth of an impressive 20%. However, we think this will fall if there is less price pressure, as indicated by another ISM sub-index namely suppliers delivery times. The profit indicators therefore suggest single-digit profit growth, in 2005 and 2006 compared with double-digit growth in Carnegie Securities Research

5 Coming events Carnegie Swedish Events Notice Board 16 May Atlas Copco, presentation in Sao Paolo May SKF, Capital Markets Day in Sao Paolo 18 May Scania, presentation in Sao Paolo 17 May Lundbeck, one-on-one meetings May Telecom tour to Sao Paolo, Mexico City, Dallam San Antonia 23 May Coop Norden, lunch presentation (11.30) CFO Mr Erik Skånsberg Carnegie Securities Research 5

6 EPS and rating revisions EPS Company Year Date Prev. EPS Curr. EPS Price JC May May May Mekonomen May May May NCC May May May May May Nibe May May May Rottneros May May May May SEB May May May Wihlborgs May May May May May May Ratings Company Date Prev. Rating rel sector Curr. Rating rel sector Price ABB 28/04/2005 Neutral Outperform 6.15 Alfa Laval 02/05/2005 Neutral Outperform Atlas Copco 12/04/2005 Neutral Underperform Biotage 20/04/2005 Outperform Neutral Cardo 12/04/2005 Neutral Underperform CloettaFazer 20/04/2005 Not Rated Underperform Ericsson 13/04/2005 Neutral Outperform Getinge 19/04/2005 Outperform Neutral Gunnebo 29/04/2005 Outperform Neutral Handelsbanken 20/04/2005 Neutral Outperform JM 29/04/2005 Not Rated Outperform Latour 29/04/2005 Underperform Neutral Millicom 22/04/2005 Neutral Outperform Netonnet 26/04/2005 Outperform Underperform Q-Med 28/04/2005 Neutral Underperform Sandvik 12/04/2005 Underperform Neutral Swedish Match 12/04/2005 Outperform Neutral Teleca 27/04/2005 Neutral Outperform Carnegie Securities Research

7 Swedish sector rankings Sector Underperform Neutral Outperform Capital Goods Atlas Copco(-) Alfa Laval SAAB Negative Cardo(-) Sandvik (+) Scania Gunnebo(-) SKF Skanska Volvo Assa Abloy ABB(+) Alfa Laval(+) JM Commercial Services & Supplies Positive Securitas Consumer Discretionary Eniro Autoliv Clas Ohlson Negative JC Electrolux Nobia Trelleborg Modern Times Group Lindex Wedins New Wave Group Ticket Netonnet(-) Capona Metro Int TV 4 Hennes & Mauritz(+) Consumer Staples Sardus Axfood Karlshamn Negative Cloetta Fazer Oriflame Swedish Match(-) Financials OMX FöreningsSparbanken Nordea Positive Industrivärden Lundbergs Investor SEB Investment AB Kinnevik Skandia Wihlborgs Latour Handelsbanken(+) Health Care Maxim Gambro AstraZeneca Positive Q-Med(-) Nobel Biocare Capio Active Biotech Biacore Bioinvent Elekta Karo Bio(-) Medevir Biotage(-) Getinge(-) Materials Höganäs SSAB Holmen Positive Rottneros Stora Enso SCA Bilerud Billerud Software & Services WM-data TietoEnator Intentia Neutral IBS IFS Orc Software HIQ Cybercom Telelogic Teleca (+) Technology Hardware & Equipment Nokia Audidev Micronic Negative Anoto Group Ericsson (+) Telecom Services Tele2 TeliaSonera Neutral Millicom(-) Transportation Negative SAS (+) = Upgraded since 11 April 2005 (-) = Downgraded since 11 April 2005 Carnegie Securities Research 7

8 Screening 1 week perf 1 month perf 6 months perf 1 year perf Perf YTD 05 Best Best Best Best Best Billerud 11.0% HiQ 21.0% JC 75.4% JC 167.5% Capio 45.6% Netonnet 7.1% Studsvik 20.3% HiQ 69.5% HiQ 120.6% IBS 43.1% Wedins 6.7% Capona 13.5% BioInvent 60.1% JM 100.0% Kungsleden 39.0% Anoto Group 6.0% Nokia 10.3% Capio 59.7% NCC 87.9% Elekta 36.8% Capona 5.9% Ericsson 8.3% IBS 59.0% Kungsleden 81.8% JC 32.1% Worst Worst Worst Worst Worst Wallenstam -79.7% Wallenstam -79.5% Wallenstam -65.2% Maxim -85.4% Wallenstam -68.1% Wihlborgs -16.5% Intentia -27.6% Wedins -39.4% Wedins -81.4% Maxim -44.0% Nibe -11.4% AudioDev -25.5% Maxim -37.9% Karo Bio -54.8% Wedins -41.1% Poolia -8.2% Nobia -21.9% AudioDev -30.5% Wallenstam -52.2% AudioDev -35.7% Ainax -7.6% Billerud -21.5% Billerud -28.2% AudioDev -48.3% Medivir -32.8% P/E 04 P/E 05 P/E 06 Highest Highest Highest TV Q-Med 76.5 Anoto Group 59.6 Poolia 56.5 Metro 68.4 Rottneros 41.9 Teleca 55.7 Studsvik 36.0 Fabege 27.9 Skandia 52.7 Billerud 35.1 Gambro 27.5 IBS 50.2 Millicom 35.0 Nobel Biocare 27.0 Lowest Lowest Lowest Wallenstam 1.9 IBS 2.4 SAS 5.8 SSAB 4.8 Gambro 3.8 SSAB 7.5 TietoEnator 6.8 SSAB 4.0 TV4 8.8 Boliden 6.8 Boliden 7.6 Finnveden 8.9 Kungsleden 7.1 SAS 8.0 Trelleborg 9.0 P/E Adj 04 P/E Adj 05 P/E Adj 06 Highest Highest Highest TV Studsvik 93.4 Anoto Group 59.6 Teleca 55.7 Q-Med 76.5 Q-Med 45.4 IBS 50.2 Metro 68.4 Rottneros 41.9 Rottneros 46.1 Billerud 35.1 Fabege 27.9 Nobel Biocare 42.0 Nobel Biocare 34.0 Gambro 27.5 Lowest Lowest Lowest Boliden 5.5 SSAB 4.0 Wedins 5.0 SSAB 6.3 Boliden 7.6 SAS 5.8 Wallenstam 7.4 SAS 8.0 Finnveden 7.3 Finnveden 8.2 Finnveden 8.5 SSAB 7.5 Kungsleden 8.3 Wallenstam 8.9 Ticket Carnegie Securities Research

9 P/BV 04 P/BV 05 P/BV 06 Highest Highest Highest Metro 29.3 Active Biotech 48.6 Active Biotech 18.4 Nobel Biocare 12.0 Metro 19.9 Metro 10.0 HM 9.5 Nobel Biocare 9.1 HM 7.5 Oriflame 8.6 HM 8.5 Nobel Biocare 7.4 Clas Ohlson 8.2 Clas Ohlson 6.8 Clas Ohlson 5.7 Lowest Lowest Lowest Rottneros 0.7 Rottneros 0.7 Wallenstam 0.7 Wallenstam 0.7 Wallenstam 0.7 Rottneros 0.7 Maxim 0.8 Boliden 0.9 SAS 0.8 Boliden 0.9 SAS 0.9 Boliden 0.8 SAS 1.0 Holmen 1.0 SCA 1.0 EV/EBITA adj 04 EV/EBITA adj 05 EV/EBITA adj 06 Highest Highest Highest TV Q-Med 68.5 Anoto Group 52.8 WM-data 34.2 Studsvik 27.9 Q-Med 34.0 Gambro 33.6 Nobel Biocare 25.5 Biotage 27.6 Nobel Biocare 32.8 Billerud 24.8 Rottneros 24.3 IBS 25.2 AudioDev 21.0 Nobel Biocare 20.1 Lowest Lowest Lowest Karo Bio 0.2 SSAB 2.8 Ticket 3.1 SSAB 4.0 Ticket 4.6 SAAB 4.6 SAAB 5.5 SAAB 5.3 TV4 5.0 Electrolux 6.3 Electrolux 7.4 Cybercom 5.5 Nolato 7.0 Axfood 7.4 SSAB 5.5 EV/Sales 04 EV/Sales 05 EV/Sales 06 Highest Highest Highest Active Biotech 18.0 Maxim 14.1 Active Biotech 13.1 Wihlborgs 12.0 Active Biotech 13.7 Hufvudstaden 11.4 Hufvudstaden 11.4 Hufvudstaden 11.8 Capona 11.0 Capona 10.8 Capona 11.4 Wihlborgs 10.6 Nobel Biocare 10.5 Wihlborgs 11.3 Kungsleden 9.6 Lowest Lowest Lowest Ticket 0.1 Ticket 0.0 Ticket 0.0 Maxim 0.1 Skanska 0.2 Skanska 0.2 Skanska 0.2 Axfood 0.3 Axfood 0.3 NCC 0.2 NCC 0.3 NCC 0.3 Axfood 0.3 Proffice 0.3 Proffice 0.3 Carnegie Securities Research 9

10 EBITA Margin 04 EBITA Margin 05 EBITA Margin 06 EBITA Margin 07 Highest Highest Highest Highest Nobel Biocare 32.6% Nobel Biocare 33.2% Nobel Biocare 34.0% Nobel Biocare 34.7% Millicom 27.9% OMX 28.8% OMX 30.7% Biacore 29.2% Swedish Match 27.8% Millicom 27.5% Millicom 27.7% OMX 28.8% Micronic 27.4% Eniro 24.9% Biacore 25.1% Millicom 28.7% Eniro 25.6% AstraZeneca 24.2% Eniro 25.1% AstraZeneca 26.6% Lowest Lowest Lowest Lowest Maxim % Proffice 0.9% Ticket 1.0% Ticket 1.1% Karo Bio % Ticket 0.9% Rottneros 1.8% Proffice 2.8% Active Biotech % Wedins 2.2% Proffice 2.8% Skanska 3.1% Medivir % Rottneros 2.5% Skanska 3.0% NCC 3.3% BioInvent % Peab 2.8% Peab 3.0% Electrolux 3.8% EBITA Margin 04 EBITA Margin 05 EBITA Margin 06 Highest Highest Highest Kungsleden 59.2% Hufvudstaden 65.2% Hufvudstaden 66.3% Wihlborgs 59.1% Castellum 62.9% Castellum 63.2% Hufvudstaden 55.6% Kungsleden 62.3% Kungsleden 61.7% Castellum 55.4% Wihlborgs 60.4% Wihlborgs 61.6% Nobel Biocare 32.6% Nobel Biocare 33.4% Nobel Biocare 34.2% Lowest Lowest Lowest Lindex 0.5% Rottneros 0.0% Ticket 1.2% TV4 1.8% Metro 0.5% Proffice 2.5% Netonnet 2.1% Ticket 1.0% Netonnet 2.5% Peab 2.4% Netonnet 2.0% Rottneros 2.6% Poolia 2.4% Wedins 2.2% Peab 3.0% ROIC Adj. Aft-Tax 04 ROIC Adj. Aft-Tax 05 ROIC Adj. Aft-Tax 06 Highest Highest Highest Nokia 96.2% Nokia 98.3% Intentia 96.3% HM 90.4% Nobel Biocare 53.1% Metro 92.6% Oriflame 59.1% Clas Ohlson 48.5% Nokia 67.8% Clas Ohlson 50.1% MTG 47.6% Nobel Biocare 60.2% Nobel Biocare 45.2% Intentia 47.1% MTG 58.8% Lowest Lowest Lowest Rottneros 0.1% Rottneros 0.0% Rottneros 1.8% ABB 2.0% Billerud 3.0% Biotage 3.7% Gambro 2.5% Metro 3.4% Billerud 3.9% Teleca 3.5% Stora Enso 3.5% Hufvudstaden 4.1% Studsvik 3.7% Studsvik 3.5% Wihlborgs 4.5% 10 Carnegie Securities Research

11 Dividend Yield 04 Dividend Yield 05 Dividend Yield 06 Highest Highest Highest AudioDev 8.6% AudioDev 9.4% AudioDev 10.4% Karlshamns 8.1% Wallenstam 8.7% Wallenstam 9.8% Billerud 7.8% Axfood 6.7% Axfood 7.0% Wallenstam 7.6% Scania 6.1% Skanska 6.9% Hufvudstaden 7.2% Skanska 5.8% Lindex 6.5% FCF Yield 04 FCF Yield 05 FCF Yield 06 Highest Highest Highest NCC 26.6% IBS 43.0% SAS 15.0% SSAB 19.0% Wihlborgs 16.0% Ticket 13.7% Swedish Match 14.6% SSAB 15.6% NCC 11.7% Hufvudstaden 13.0% SAS 13.1% Finnveden 11.3% Billerud 11.5% Boliden 12.3% SSAB 11.1% Lowest Lowest Lowest HiQ 0.1% Q-Med 0.9% Anoto Group 0.6% Cybercom 0.4% Capio 1.5% Q-Med 1.2% Lindex 0.7% Biacore 1.7% Netonnet 1.4% SAAB 0.8% Teleca 1.7% Gambro 2.6% JC 1.0% Hufvudstaden 2.0% Clas Ohlson 2.7% Carnegie Securities Research 11

12 Per Sales CAGR Price Market Performance YTD Forecast EBITA Margin (local curr.) Cap 1W 1M 6M 12M 05 3Y Capital Goods (Sector view: Negative) ABB % 2.6% 11.0% 14.5% 24.9% 6.7% 5.2% 7.6% 8.2% Alfa Laval % -11.9% -0.5% -4.6% -3.3% 5.3% 9.6% 7.9% 9.7% Assa Abloy % -4.5% -10.4% 8.9% -16.3% 5.1% 14.7% 15.2% 15.7% Atlas Copco % -3.1% 8.8% 31.4% 10.8% 2.2% 14.8% 17.0% 16.1% Cardo % -1.2% -4.5% -0.6% -10.2% 1.4% 5.8% 6.6% 8.8% Haldex % -5.0% 18.9% 8.4% 5.2% 8.4% 5.1% 5.8% 6.1% Hexagon % 1.0% 37.6% 64.4% 22.6% 11.3% 8.2% 8.6% 8.3% Munters % -6.7% -4.1% -5.2% -13.3% 5.7% 7.4% 8.2% 9.6% NCC % 5.3% 32.1% 87.9% 23.9% n.a 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% Nibe % -20.3% 27.0% 53.0% 3.5% 16.6% 11.6% 11.1% 11.5% Peab % -2.7% 36.2% 71.3% 23.1% 6.0% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% SAAB % -1.3% 6.0% 12.8% -0.9% 3.7% 10.1% 9.4% 9.9% Sandvik % -6.2% -1.6% 17.1% 2.4% 6.5% 13.8% 14.2% 14.6% Scania % -12.8% -4.9% 17.5% -0.6% 6.1% 11.5% 12.7% 12.6% Skanska % 0.0% 10.5% 41.6% 8.8% n.a 3.8% 3.6% 3.0% SKF % -13.3% -1.0% 15.9% -1.7% 3.4% 10.2% 10.6% 10.8% Volvo % -5.4% 5.7% 19.2% 12.0% 9.6% 7.4% 8.2% 7.7% Commercial Services & supplies ( Positive) Securitas % 1.7% 9.6% 27.0% 5.3% 4.5% 6.7% 7.0% 7.4% Consumer Discretionary (Negative) Autoliv % 2.2% 4.0% 8.8% 3.3% 10.7% 8.4% 7.9% 8.1% Capona % 13.5% 5.9% 62.8% 4.0% 11.4% Clas Ohlson % -9.2% 20.7% 38.1% 7.2% 18.4% 14.8% 15.1% 15.0% Electrolux % -12.3% 2.8% 2.1% -4.3% n.a 4.0% 2.5% 3.3% Eniro % -7.5% 27.4% 38.4% 18.0% 1.2% 25.1% 24.9% 25.1% HM % -2.1% 19.8% 45.1% 9.7% 12.5% 19.9% 22.3% 22.2% JC % -13.0% 75.4% 167.5% 32.1% 1.5% 2.9% 5.4% 6.1% Lindex % -5.1% 39.2% 52.0% 14.8% n.a 0.5% 7.3% 9.0% Mekonomen % -15.1% -17.8% -5.0% -22.8% 8.5% 10.0% 8.7% 10.1% Metro % -14.9% 5.4% 9.2% -9.9% 30.4% n.a 0.5% 11.5% MTG % -0.7% 26.2% 80.8% 22.4% 7.7% 15.5% 15.4% 18.3% Netonnet % 0.0% -23.5% -35.3% -20.2% 25.4% 2.1% 2.0% 2.5% New Wave Group % -15.6% -2.1% 24.6% -10.6% 16.1% 11.5% 11.7% 11.9% Nobia % -21.9% 14.8% 32.3% -1.4% 9.2% 8.5% 7.9% 8.5% Ticket % -5.7% 7.3% 10.5% 13.3% 5.8% n.a 1.0% 1.2% Trelleborg % -11.4% 0.9% -17.4% -3.5% 9.5% 8.3% 7.0% 7.6% TV % -4.6% 4.0% 16.5% -11.8% 4.7% 1.8% 10.6% 15.3% Wedins % -12.2% -39.4% -81.4% -41.1% 0.9% n.a 2.2% 4.3% Consumer staples ( Negative) Axfood % -4.2% -21.2% -4.5% -24.0% 0.6% n.a 3.5% 3.7% Karlshamns % -5.6% 28.6% 45.3% 20.9% 7.5% n.a 6.1% 6.2% Oriflame % -2.6% 2.1% -39.3% -3.9% 5.4% n.a 13.6% 14.7% Swedish Match % -1.7% 8.8% 13.4% 13.0% 0.6% n.a 17.7% 19.2% Sardus % -6.8% -9.4% -7.2% -9.4% 5.1% n.a 7.9% 8.1% Financials (Positive) Bure % -7.4% 47.1% 37.9% 14.9% Castellum % 3.8% 21.6% 53.9% 8.6% 4.7% 55.4% 62.9% 63.2% Fabege % -18.8% 5.4% -0.9% 0.0% n.a FöreningsSparbanken % -3.1% 9.6% 28.1% 3.3% Handelsbanken % -5.6% 0.3% 14.5% -6.6% Hufvudstaden % 5.7% 23.3% 65.7% 16.6% 0.3% 55.6% 65.2% 66.3% Industrivärden % -8.5% -1.6% 15.6% -8.3% Intrum Justitia % -14.2% 18.7% 24.4% 0.0% 0.2% 15.6% 17.2% 17.6% Kinnevik % -13.5% -2.0% -12.0% -14.1% Investor % -2.3% 14.4% 32.6% 13.0% JM % 0.0% 49.1% 100.0% 28.5% 7.8% 7.9% 7.6% 7.5% Kungsleden % 5.9% 39.9% 81.8% 39.0% 10.7% 59.2% 62.3% 61.7% Latour % -11.3% 2.9% 14.9% -0.3% LjungbergGruppen % -2.4% 33.9% 71.0% 27.5% 1.1% Lundbergs % -12.6% 1.8% 25.4% 1.6% Nordea % -5.6% 5.5% 35.3% 0.7% OMX % 0.6% -5.9% -9.8% -2.4% 4.9% 20.7% 27.8% 29.3% Ratos % -12.8% 12.0% 39.5% 7.0% SEB % -7.3% 2.8% 22.6% -0.8% Skandia % -6.2% 23.0% 25.6% 5.1% Svolder % -4.1% -1.0% 12.1% 2.1% SäkI % 1.8% 33.7% 52.7% -6.4% Wallenstam % -79.5% -65.2% -52.2% -68.1% 13.1% Wihlborgs % -18.7% 8.8% 43.3% 1.1% 12.6% 59.1% 60.4% 61.6% Öresund % 1.7% 7.7% 25.5% -1.6% 12 Carnegie Securities Research

13 P/E P/E Adj P/BV PEG Capital Goods (Sector view: Negative) n.a ABB Alfa Laval Assa Abloy n.a Atlas Copco Cardo Haldex Hexagon Munters n.a 2.3 NCC Nibe Peab SAAB Sandvik n.a n.a Scania n.a n.a n.a Skanska SKF n.a Volvo Commercial Services & supplies ( Positive) Securitas Consumer Discretionary (Negative) Autoliv n.a n.a 5.1 Capona Clas Ohlson n.a n.a 0.5 Electrolux Eniro Hennes & Mauritz JC n.a n.a n.a Lindex Mekonomen n.a n.a Metro International Modern Times Group Netonnet New Wave Group Nobia Ticket Trelleborg TV4 n.a n.a 14.2 n.a Wedins n.a n.a Axfood n.a n.a Karlshamns n.a n.a n.a Oriflame n.a n.a n.a 2.1 Swedish Match n.a n.a Sardus Financials (Positive) Bure n.a n.a 4.5 Castellum n.a n.a 7.2 Fabege n.a n.a FöreningsSparbanken n.a Handelsbanken n.a 5.7 Hufvudstaden Industrivärden Intrum Justitia Investment AB Kinnevik Investor JM n.a n.a n.a Kungsleden Latour LjungbergGruppen Lundbergs Nordea OMX Ratos n.a SEB Skandia SäkI n.a n.a 3.1 Wallenstam n.a Wihlborgs Svolder Öresund Carnegie Securities Research 13

14 Per Sales CAGR Price Market Performance YTD Forecast EBITA Margin (local curr.) Cap 1W 1M 6M 12M 05 3Y Healthcare (Positive) Active Biotech % -2.7% 1.6% -16.3% 6.8% >100% n.a n.a n.a AstraZeneca % 6.5% 4.4% -14.3% 28.6% 10.0% 21.2% 24.2% 25.0% Biacore % -8.3% 14.8% -10.9% 16.5% 5.2% n.a 20.3% 23.9% BioInvent % -12.9% 60.1% 24.7% 30.2% 1.6% n.a n.a n.a Biotage % -10.4% 29.2% -2.5% 2.1% 14.6% n.a n.a.6% 5.0% Capio % 1.8% 59.7% 67.9% 45.6% 12.5% 8.6% 8.9% 9.6% Elekta % -0.6% 37.9% 77.0% 36.8% 17.1% 12.6% 10.8% 13.8% Gambro % -7.1% 2.7% 42.3% -0.5% n.a 8.5% 70.3% 11.9% Getinge % -0.9% 30.2% 26.3% 27.5% 10.9% 16.1% 16.0% 16.8% Karo Bio % -14.2% -19.4% -54.8% -27.2% 3.8% n.a n.a n.a Maxim % -11.3% -37.9% -85.4% -44.0% 27.8% n.a n.a n.a Medivir % -10.5% -27.2% -33.7% -32.8% n.a n.a n.a n.a Nobel Biocare % -8.0% 27.7% 41.3% 22.4% 19.3% 32.6% 33.4% 34.2% Q-Med % -14.5% 7.7% -9.8% 2.7% 22.1% n.a 6.4% 10.7% Materials (Neutral) Billerud % -21.5% -28.2% -26.0% -29.7% n.a 10.9% 3.8% 5.4% Boliden % -17.7% 3.6% 6.8% 0.0% 24.7% 10.2% 9.6% 7.0% Holmen % -8.8% -18.1% -9.6% -16.5% 3.5% 11.9% 11.4% 14.0% Höganäs % -7.8% 6.6% 9.2% 3.4% 7.2% 15.6% 14.7% 15.5% Rottneros % -12.9% -11.1% -35.4% -15.2% 0.3% n.a 0.0% n.a SCA % -4.4% -7.9% -12.3% -12.2% 3.6% 7.7% 7.6% 9.2% SSAB % 0.3% 11.0% 38.3% 7.2% 13.0% 19.6% 20.3% 9.9% Stora Enso % -7.5% -12.0% -6.9% -9.7% 7.0% 6.4% 4.7% 7.4% Software & Services (Neutral) BTS % -0.7% 18.1% 40.0% 8.1% 27.2% 14.4% 14.0% 14.7% Cybercom % -2.6% 8.1% 20.9% -2.6% 21.3% 3.7% 7.5% 9.2% HiQ % 21.0% 69.5% 120.6% 25.5% 27.3% 13.9% 18.3% 16.9% IBS % -1.6% 59.0% 38.8% 43.1% 1.6% 2.8% 28.0% 5.8% IFS % -9.0% 2.3% -43.0% 29.7% n.a n.a 8.4% 10.2% Intentia % -27.6% -2.4% 33.9% -12.6% n.a n.a 7.1% 10.5% Orc Software % 2.8% -1.4% -30.7% -5.2% 6.0% 11.9% 11.9% 18.6% Teleca % -4.4% 17.8% -17.4% 1.4% 12.5% 4.0% 7.7% 9.5% Telelogic % -16.9% -11.2% 20.7% -8.9% 18.0% 16.8% 17.0% 19.4% WM-data % -0.5% 26.8% 19.9% 29.9% 11.7% 3.2% 5.8% 6.5% TietoEnator % -11.1% 0.6% 2.0% 2.4% 8.9% 16.3% 9.5% 10.8% Technology Hardware & Equipment (Negative) Anoto Group % -1.7% 35.7% -22.2% 3.6% 5.1% n.a n.a 11.7% AudioDev % -25.5% -30.5% -48.3% -35.7% n.a 9.6% 5.5% 12.3% Ericsson % 8.3% -1.3% 13.8% 4.7% 11.4% 18.6% 19.3% 18.3% Nokia % 10.3% 2.2% 13.6% 12.7% 1.2% 15.1% 13.8% 13.2% Micronic % -4.7% 24.6% 20.3% 6.4% 45.6% 15.1% 12.1% 13.5% Telecom services (Neutral) Millicom % -14.8% -19.5% -22.0% -16.6% 22.2% 27.9% 23.2% 27.0% Tele % -6.8% -10.4% -30.1% -13.8% 11.0% 10.0% 8.1% 8.4% TeliaSonera % -9.7% -5.9% 28.1% -3.8% 12.7% 22.3% 22.1% 24.0% Transportation (Neutral) SAS % -6.9% 22.1% 4.2% 12.9% n.a n.a 5.0% 6.1% 14 Carnegie Securities Research

15 P/E P/E Adj P/BV PEG Healthcare (Positive) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Active Biotech AstraZeneca n.a n.a n.a Biacore n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a BioInvent n.a n.a 23.6 n.a n.a Biotage n.a 0.8 Capio Elekta n.a n.a 0.2 n.a Gambro Getinge n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Karo Bio n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Maxim n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Medivir Nobel Biocare n.a n.a n.a 0.3 Q-Med Materials (Neutral) n.a n.a 0.4 Billerud n.a Boliden Holmen Höganäs n.a n.a n.a 46.1 n.a n.a Rottneros SCA n.a n.a SSAB n.a 0.4 Stora Enso Software & Services (Neutral) BTS Cybercom HiQ n.a IBS n.a n.a 10.8 n.a IFS n.a n.a Intentia n.a Orc Software n.a Teleca Telelogic WM-data n.a 1.7 TietoEnator Technology Hardware & Equipment (Negative) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Anoto Group n.a AudioDev Ericsson n.a n.a Nokia n.a 0.8 Micronic Telecom services (Neutral) n.a Millicom n.a 0.6 Tele TeliaSonera Transportation (Neutral) n.a n.a SAS Carnegie Securities Research 15

16 ROCE Adj. Pre-Tax ROE Adj. Dividend Yield Capital Goods (Sector view: Negative) ABB 12.1% 20.9% 23.4% 15.3% 27.0% 25.7% 0.0% 1.7% 2.1% Alfa Laval 17.7% 17.5% 18.7% 15.4% 16.1% 19.0% 4.6% 4.8% 5.3% Assa Abloy 16.4% 17.4% 18.5% 23.4% 23.1% 22.6% 2.7% 3.2% 3.4% Atlas Copco 23.6% 25.8% 27.9% 21.9% 23.0% 22.6% 2.7% 3.2% 3.3% Cardo 14.7% 16.0% 21.3% 13.0% 12.6% 16.4% 4.7% 4.7% 5.3% Haldex 13.4% 14.5% 14.5% 15.4% 17.2% 16.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% Hexagon 14.7% 15.3% 15.0% 20.0% 20.9% 18.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% Munters 21.7% 24.8% 29.3% 18.6% 20.5% 22.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% NCC 11.2% 12.1% 13.2% 16.4% 13.3% 14.4% 4.1% 4.6% 5.0% Nibe 27.9% 23.1% 22.7% 37.0% 27.7% 25.1% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% Peab 10.6% 13.1% 15.5% 19.3% 18.2% 17.7% 3.1% 3.5% 4.0% SAAB 18.4% 17.3% 17.6% 19.0% 16.7% 16.7% 3.3% 3.5% 3.5% Sandvik 20.3% 21.4% 22.0% 21.9% 23.7% 24.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.4% Scania 14.3% 16.0% 14.6% 21.8% 23.3% 20.8% 5.7% 6.1% 5.7% Skanska 8.4% 15.7% 19.6% 8.0% 13.1% 14.1% 4.6% 5.8% 6.9% SKF 20.1% 22.6% 22.3% 19.1% 19.7% 19.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% Volvo 9.7% 12.3% 11.4% 14.1% 17.2% 15.6% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% Commercial Services & supplies ( Positive) Securitas 16.1% 16.8% 18.0% 23.0% 23.3% 22.8% 2.5% 2.7% 3.1% Consumer Discretionary (Negative) Autoliv 14.6% 14.3% 14.8% 12.7% 12.3% 12.4% 1.6% 2.6% 3.1% Capona 11.3% 7.9% 8.0% 3.8% 3.8% 3.8% Clas Ohlson 43.9% 43.4% 43.0% 32.6% 32.0% 31.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.4% Electrolux 20.2% 19.1% 20.6% 18.4% 16.8% 18.6% 4.8% 5.2% 5.5% Eniro 24.1% 22.6% 21.4% 36.0% 37.8% 33.6% 2.7% 4.7% 4.9% Hennes & Mauritz 52.0% 59.3% 59.4% 34.6% 39.1% 39.2% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% JC 7.4% 16.3% 16.0% 0.9% 1.8% 2.3% Lindex 3.4% 37.1% 44.3% n.a 27.3% 32.7% 4.9% 5.7% 6.5% Mekonomen 18.1% 15.2% 17.3% 19.3% 15.1% 16.9% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% Metro International n.a 19.8% 44.1% n.a 34.6% 66.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Modern Times Group 29.5% 29.6% 22.2% 29.8% 25.6% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% Netonnet 15.1% 13.8% 16.9% 15.2% 12.3% 13.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% New Wave Group 17.1% 17.5% 19.3% 23.9% 22.8% 22.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.8% Nobia 23.1% 22.5% 21.7% 2.8% 2.8% 3.0% Ticket 25.6% 37.7% 39.5% 33.4% 30.7% 31.0% 0.0% 1.9% 5.3% Trelleborg 10.8% 10.3% 10.6% 14.6% 12.1% 11.9% 4.6% 4.6% 4.6% TV4 5.2% 30.5% 38.3% 3.6% 22.3% 28.0% 2.0% 4.0% 5.7% Wedins n.a 7.1% 12.2% n.a 15.4% 39.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Axfood 33.3% 29.5% 28.8% 6.5% 6.7% 7.0% Karlshamns 15.8% 18.4% 19.3% 16.1% 16.7% 17.4% 8.1% 4.1% 4.3% Oriflame 52.2% 46.3% 48.7% >100% 60.9% 54.2% 4.7% 5.0% 5.3% Swedish Match 24.0% 31.3% 33.1% 29.4% 2.2% 2.3% 2.4% Sardus 15.5% 15.4% 16.1% 26.0% 23.5% 23.6% 5.2% 5.4% 5.7% Financials (Positive) Bure Castellum 6.4% 6.5% 6.8% 6.3% 7.4% 8.0% 3.7% 4.0% 4.4% Fabege 3.3% 4.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.6% FöreningsSparbanken 18.2% 17.4% 17.3% 3.8% 3.9% 4.1% Handelsbanken 16.8% 15.6% 15.4% 3.7% 3.9% 4.2% Hufvudstaden 3.8% 4.5% 4.7% 6.2% 6.1% 6.5% 7.2% 2.5% 2.7% Industrivärden 4.5% Intrum Justitia 23.5% 24.4% 26.5% 0.0% 4.1% 4.7% Investment AB Kinnevik Investor JM 6.8% 13.0% 15.8% 6.7% 13.0% 16.2% 2.9% 4.5% 5.3% Kungsleden 3.3% 4.0% 3.9% 23.0% 12.3% 12.1% 4.3% 4.6% 4.9% Latour LjungbergGruppen 10.6% 11.0% 11.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% Lundbergs Nordea 14.3% 14.1% 14.3% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% OMX 12.3% 15.4% 15.5% 11.4% 13.5% 13.7% 0.0% 3.6% 4.8% Ratos 5.0% SEB 14.5% 14.7% 14.3% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% Skandia 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% Svolder 5.0% SäkI 0.0% Wallenstam 11.8% 8.2% 7.3% 7.6% 8.7% 9.8% Wihlborgs 3.5% 5.8% 6.3% 8.1% 8.2% 9.2% 4.6% 4.9% 5.3% Öresund 16 Carnegie Securities Research

17 EV/EBITA adj EV/Sales FCF Yield Capital Goods (Sector view: Negative) % 5.1% 7.5% ABB % 7.1% 9.2% Alfa Laval % 6.7% 7.3% Assa Abloy % 6.1% 6.7% Atlas Copco % 6.2% 7.8% Cardo n.a 5.3% 5.7% Haldex % 5.7% 4.7% Hexagon % 7.3% 4.1% Munters % 12.0% 11.7% NCC % 4.1% 3.0% Nibe n.a 7.8% 8.2% Peab % 7.4% 5.4% SAAB % 6.5% 7.4% Sandvik % 11.9% 9.6% Scania % 10.4% 8.4% Skanska % 7.7% 9.6% SKF % 11.0% 10.9% Volvo Commercial Services & supplies ( Positive) % 5.8% 6.4% Securitas Consumer Discretionary (Negative) % 6.3% 7.2% Autoliv n.a 5.9% 6.1% Capona % 2.6% 2.7% Clas Ohlson % 4.3% 4.2% Electrolux % 6.3% 6.4% Eniro % 4.0% 4.7% Hennes & Mauritz % 5.4% 6.9% JC > % 7.1% 7.9% Lindex n.a 5.8% 5.5% Mekonomen n.a. > n.a n.a 4.9% Metro International % 7.0% 5.3% Modern Times Group % n.a 1.4% Netonnet n.a 6.2% 4.4% New Wave Group % 7.5% 8.2% Nobia n.a % 11.7% 13.7% Ticket % 6.9% 8.0% Trelleborg % 7.8% 10.4% TV4 n.a n.a n.a 9.0% Wedins n.a % 4.9% 7.6% Axfood n.a % 4.0% 4.8% Karlshamns n.a % 5.1% 8.2% Oriflame n.a % 4.8% 6.3% Swedish Match n.a % 4.3% 8.2% Sardus Financials (Positive) Bure n.a 5.7% 5.9% Castellum % 3.8% 3.7% Fabege FöreningsSparbanken Handelsbanken % 2.0% 3.9% Hufvudstaden Industrivärden % 8.6% 8.5% Intrum Justitia Investment AB Kinnevik Investor % 7.9% 7.7% JM % n.a 7.0% Kungsleden Latour % 3.5% 3.8% LjungbergGruppen Lundbergs Nordea % 3.9% 6.5% OMX SäkI n.a 8.4% 5.0% Wallenstam n.a 16.0% 7.0% Wihlborgs Ratos SEB Skandia Svolder Öresund Carnegie Securities Research 17

18 ROCE Adj. Pre-Tax 0 ROE Adj. Dividend Yield Healthcare (Positive) Active Biotech n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AstraZeneca 24.5% 27.6% 27.7% 2.2% 2.5% 2.9% Biacore 19.6% 22.4% n.a 14.9% 15.0% 1.9% 2.2% 2.6% BioInvent n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Biotage n.a n.a 4.3% n.a n.a 4.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Capio 11.0% n.a 10.9% 12.2% 12.5% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Elekta 23.2% n.a 19.5% 18.5% 14.1% 16.4% 0.6% 0.7% 1.1% Gambro n.a 12.4% 4.6% 6.5% 7.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.5% Getinge 19.4% n.a 21.5% 31.0% 27.0% 25.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.3% Karo Bio n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Maxim n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Medivir n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Nobel Biocare 39.2% 38.3% 37.8% 32.1% 30.7% 30.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Q-Med n.a 6.8% 11.7% n.a 5.3% 9.0% 4.3% 4.3% 4.3% Materials (Neutral) Billerud 16.3% 5.4% 7.0% 16.2% 4.1% 6.3% 7.8% 2.4% 2.4% Boliden 12.8% 8.0% 20.0% 11.8% 7.9% 0.0% 3.5% 3.5% Holmen 9.5% 8.5% 10.9% 8.1% 7.2% 9.7% 5.2% 5.2% 5.6% Höganäs 17.5% 17.9% 19.3% 20.0% 18.4% 18.7% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% Rottneros 0.1% 0.1% 3.0% 1.5% n.a n.a 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% SCA 9.4% 8.1% 9.4% 10.8% 8.4% 9.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.6% SSAB 27.7% 23.8% 30.4% 13.8% 4.4% 5.3% 5.3% Stora Enso 4.1% 5.9% 9.3% 2.7% 4.7% 8.5% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% Software & Services (Neutral) BTS 28.5% 33.1% 33.8% 17.6% 21.9% 22.4% 2.3% 2.9% 3.6% Cybercom 12.0% 20.8% 23.8% 6.9% 15.6% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% HiQ 25.8% 40.2% 38.0% 18.6% 29.4% 27.8% 4.3% 3.3% 3.7% IBS 8.2% 9.4% 11.4% 5.6% 7.6% 7.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% IFS n.a 16.4% 20.5% n.a 18.7% 22.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Intentia n.a 14.4% 21.6% n.a 8.6% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Orc Software 15.8% 19.0% 29.2% 10.5% 12.1% 19.4% 2.7% 2.7% 2.9% Teleca 5.0% 11.2% 14.0% 2.2% 8.7% 10.8% 0.0% 1.4% 3.0% Telelogic 26.6% 24.1% 24.3% 20.9% 20.1% 17.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% WM-data 11.4% 16.0% 17.3% 9.5% 14.7% 15.1% 1.1% 1.6% 2.2% TietoEnator 26.2% 21.0% 23.4% 21.5% 18.8% 20.6% 4.2% 2.5% 2.9% Technology Hardware & Equipment (Negative) Anoto Group n.a n.a 8.3% n.a n.a 6.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% AudioDev 13.4% 7.9% 17.6% 9.9% 5.5% 12.4% 8.6% 9.4% 10.4% Ericsson 27.4% 30.2% 28.8% 25.9% 25.0% 21.7% 1.1% 1.8% 2.3% Nokia 30.3% 34.2% 33.9% 21.3% 25.6% 25.3% 2.5% 3.0% 2.9% Micronic 9.8% 12.2% 14.2% 12.8% 10.8% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Telecom services (Neutral) Millicom 29.5% 23.4% 28.2% >100% 21.9% 33.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Tele2 11.4% 10.6% 12.0% 7.7% 8.0% 8.8% 6.7% 3.1% 4.0% TeliaSonera 12.3% 14.7% 17.8% 11.8% 11.9% 13.6% 3.1% 3.7% 4.2% Transportation (Neutral) SAS n.a 9.1% 10.8% n.a 12.4% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18 Carnegie Securities Research

19 EV/EBITA adj EV/Sales FCF Yield Healthcare (Positive) n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Active Biotech % 5.1% 5.6% AstraZeneca n.a % 1.7% 5.8% Biacore n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a BioInvent n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Biotage % 1.5% 6.9% Capio % 3.8% 5.1% Elekta % 3.3% 2.6% Gambro % 4.6% 4.7% Getinge n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Karo Bio n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Maxim n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a n.a Medivir % 2.3% 3.2% Nobel Biocare n.a n.a 0.9% 1.2% Q-Med Materials (Neutral) % n.a n.a Billerud n.a 12.3% 9.4% Boliden % n.a 8.2% Holmen % 4.5% 6.7% Höganäs >100 >100 n.a n.a n.a n.a Rottneros % 8.4% 10.5% SCA % 15.6% 11.1% SSAB % 4.8% 7.3% Stora Enso Software & Services (Neutral) % 7.3% 8.0% BTS % 3.3% 8.8% Cybercom % 6.1% 5.8% HiQ n.a 43.0% 4.6% IBS n.a n.a 10.2% 9.7% IFS n.a n.a 2.5% 10.3% Intentia % 3.7% 4.8% Orc Software n.a 1.7% 5.4% Teleca % 4.5% 6.0% Telelogic % 6.7% 7.7% WM-data % 7.9% 7.9% TietoEnator Technology Hardware & Equipment (Negative) n.a n.a n.a n.a 0.6% Anoto Group % 8.4% 2.9% AudioDev % 6.4% Ericsson % 4.3% 3.7% Nokia n.a 6.6% 8.4% Micronic Telecom services (Neutral) % n.a n.a Millicom % 7.7% 10.3% Tele % 9.4% 10.8% TeliaSonera Transportation (Neutral) n.a n.a 13.1% 15.0% SAS Carnegie Securities Research 19

20 Disclosures and disclaimers The Carnegie Group Carnegie is an independent Nordic investment bank operating in Securities, Investment Banking and Asset Management & Private Banking. Carnegie provides a wide array of financial products and services to Nordic and international clients from offices in eight countries: Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland, Luxembourg, Switzerland, the UK and the US. Carnegie Investment Banking is the leading independent corporate finance advisor in the Nordic countries. Carnegie Asset Management and Private Banking provide financial services including asset management for selected institutions and private investors. The Carnegie Group was listed on the Stockholm Bourse on 1 June Stockrating distribution swedish market Rating No. of stocks Outperform 40 Neutral 42 Underperform 29 Not Rated 0 Under Bid 0 Under Review 0 Total 111 Ratings and risk assessment structure Current rating system (as of 10 June 2003) Stock ratings Carnegie stock ratings are relative to Carnegie s coverage universe on a Nordic sector basis. OP=Outperform The stock is expected to outperform the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next 6 months. N=Neutral The stock is expected to perform in line with the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next 6 months. U=Underperform The stock is expected to underperform the return on the Carnegie coverage universe of the Nordic Sector over the next 6 months. Sector View Carnegie s coverage universe on a Nordic sector basis is rated relative to the total Nordic market. Carnegie s strategists, in co-operation with the sector heads, set the sector recommendations. Positive The sector is expected to outperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Neutral The sector is expected to perform in line with the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Negative The sector is expected to underperform the return on the total Nordic market over the next 6 months. Other ratings NR=Not rated The investment rating, if any, has been suspended temporarily. UR=Under review The investment rating, if any, has been suspended temporarily. UB=Under bid The investment rating, if any, has been suspended temporarily. Risk assessment The risk assessment is based on the analyst s evaluation of the company s equity beta based on the business risk (asset beta) and financial risk (gearing). Low risk Estimated equity beta <0.75 Medium risk Estimated equity beta 0.75 to 1.25 High risk Estimated equity beta >1.25 Previous rating system SB=Strong buy The stock is expected to provide a return of greater than 20% over the next 6 months. B=Buy The stock is expected to provide a return of between 10% and 20% over the next 6 months. Acc=Acumulate The stock is expected to provide a return of between 5% and 10% over the next 6 months. R=Reduce The stock is expected to provide a return of between 0% and 5% over the next 6 months. S=Sell The stock is expected to provide a return of less than 0% over the next 6 months. Analyst certification The research analyst or analysts responsible for the content of this report certify that, not withstanding the existence of any such potential conflicts of interests referred to herein, the views expressed in this report accurately reflect our personal views about the companies and securities covered. We further certify that we have not been, nor are or will be, receiving direct or indirect compensation related to the specific ratings or views contained in this report. 20 Carnegie Securities Research

21 Potential conflict of interest As of 1 February 2003, Carnegie analysts and any connected persons are not ordinarily permitted to hold securities in the companies they cover. Within the past 12 months Carnegie (refer to definition in disclaimer text) has received compensation for investment banking services from Ainax., Aker Kværner, Aktiv Kapital, AP Møller Mærsk, CapMan, Chr Hansen Group, CloettaFazer, DSV, EAC, Eniro, Finnveden, Fred Olsen Energy, Intentia, Intrum Justitia, Investor, JM, Kompan, LjungbergGruppen, Nobel Biocare, Schibsted, TeliaSonera, Thrane & Thrane and Volvo. As an integrated Nordic investment bank and asset management firm, Carnegie is a leading broker of Nordic stocks and has investment banking and other business relationships with a large number of the companies covered by its research department. Carnegie is constantly soliciting investment banking assignments. Therefore, any reader of this research report should assume that Carnegie is seeking or will seek investment banking or other business from the company or companies to which it refers. Thus, investors should assume that Carnegie expects to receive or intends to seek compensation from any company mentioned in this report within the next 3 months. Within the past 12 months Carnegie (refer to definition in disclaimer text) has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities of Aktiv Kapital, Millicom, Nokian Tyres, PA Resources and Wedins. Disclaimer Carnegie offers stockbroking, investment banking and asset management services through companies based in the Nordic territories (Sweden, Denmark, Finland and Norway), Luxembourg, Switzerland and New York. Each company is regulated by the appropriate authority in the relevant territory and details of each company are available on request. Carnegie UK is the UK Branch of Carnegie Investment Bank AB, a company incorporated in Sweden with limited liability. Carnegie UK is regulated by the UK Financial Services Authority for the conduct of designated investment business in the UK. This report has been approved for the purposes of Section 21 of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 by Carnegie UK and issued by it in the UK. This report is issued in the US by Carnegie, Inc., a US registered broker-dealer. This report is provided for informational purposes only and under no circumstances is it to be used or considered as an offer to sell, or a solicitation of any offer to buy any securities. The information in this report was obtained from various sources while all reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information is true and not misleading, Carnegie does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness. Carnegie, its associated companies and any of their officers or directors may have a position, or otherwise be interested in, transactions in securities which are directly or indirectly the subject of this report. Carnegie, or its associated companies, may from time to time perform investment banking or other services for, or solicit investment banking or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. This research report is prepared for general circulation and general information only. It does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this report. Investors should seek financial advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in any securities or investment strategies discussed or recommended in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future performance. Carnegie and its associated companies accept no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential loss arising from the use of this report or its contents. Investors in the US should be aware that investing in nonus securities entails certain risks. The securities of non US issuers may not be registered with, nor be subject to, the current informational reporting and audit standards of the US Securities and Exchange Commission. This report may not be reproduced, distributed or published by any recipient for any purpose. Copyright 2002 Carnegie. Carnegie Securities Research 21

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23 Latest research Date Company Subject Headline No of Pages 12 May Proffice Post-Results Note First Comment - In line, a lot left to prove 5 11 May Nibe Post-Results Note No warm feeling May Anoto Group Post-Results Note First comment - Slow progress 5 11 May Nibe Post-Results Note First comment - Tough comparisons 5 11 May Wihlborgs Post-Results Note Cash flow boosted by recovery and low interest rates May Mekonomen Post-Results Note Another disappointment but improving outlook May NCC Post-Results Note Company reporting 11 May May Rottneros Post-Results Note Outlook remains too weak to trigger shares May Hennes & Mauritz Update Note Easter to hamper April growth May Sector/Industry/Market Research Update Note Small Cap Weekly - week May Diversified Financial Services Newsletter Summary Investment Companies May SEB Post-Results Note Not as good as it seems May AstraZeneca Update Note Cerovive - earnings upgrade potential May Sector/Industry/Market Research Pre-Results Note Swedish Companies reporting 9 13 May May Industrivärden Post-Results Note Q1 figures released 6 04 May Billerud Post-Results Note Weak start to the year May Hexagon Post-Results Note A well-measured performance May Q-Med Post-Results Note Aesthetic growth likely to remain slow in Q May Securitas Update Note Risk perception improved again 13 Carnegie Securities Research 23