Promising FY 2018 targets
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- Jane Douglas
- 10 years ago
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1 A cc or # $TypCap$ Page 1/7 Equity flash Trading Update Automotive BUY (BUY) Target EUR 2.30 (EUR 2.00) Price (last closing price) : 1.10 EUR Upside : 109% Est. change 2015e 2016e EPS - - Majority stake takeover: shareholder value should increase C apital TIN GY TING.DE M arket Cap (EURm) 37.8 Enterprise value (EURm) Extrema 12 months Free Float (%) 30.0% P erfo rmance (%) 1m 3m 12m Absolute Perf. rel. " sector" Perf. rel. CDAX P &L 12/15e 12/16e 12/17e Sales (EURm) EBITDA (EURm) EBIT (EURm) Attr. net profit (EURm) EPS (EUR) Dividend (EUR) P/E (x) ns ns 31.7 P/B (x) Dividend Yield (%) FCF yield (%) ns ns 2.1 EV/Sales (x) EV/EBITDA (x) EV/EBIT (x) ns ns Board member Roger Kavena acquires majority stake in TWINTEC TWINTEC recently announced that board member and existing shareholder of TWINTEC AG, Roger Kavena, together with his company RMK Beteiligungen GmbH, has acquired the entire 18.4m (53%) block of TWINTEC shares from the former majority shareholder Centre Lane Partners. RMK and the Kavena family now hold 70% of. The new majority shareholder is not required to make a mandatory takeover bid to remaining shareholders because TWINTEC shares are listed in the Entry Standard which entails less strict regulations than other transparency standards (i.e. Prime or General Standard). In our view this deal is to TWINTEC s advantage because TWINTEC/Baumot is now fully controlled and managed by the Kavena family, which will accelerate important decisions at TWINTEC and further improve the company s strategic direction. Promising FY 2018 targets Management anticipates 2018 group sales of EUR m which implies a CAGR of 31-39%. New emissions standards will significantly increase demand for TWINTEC s environmentally friendly technologies, confirming TWINTEC s strategic shift to the OEM supplier business. On the profitability level the company guides for an EBITDA margin of approximately 10% in Strong share price performance in the months to come; BUY But before the company can achieve dynamic growth rates and positive net income, 2015 is likely to be year of transition in which expansion steps will be implemented. For 2017e our DCF valuation model derives a new PT of EUR 2.30 (old: EUR 2.00). Despite the recent share price rally we see further upside potential for the TWINTEC share. Historically, the June quarter has been the strongest in terms of share price performance. BUY recommendation confirmed. Daniel Kukalj (Analyst) +49 (0) [email protected] Gearing (%) Net Debt/EBITDA(x) N ext Events FY14 results M ay 2015 Please notice the information on the preparation of this document, the disclaimer, the advice regarding possible conflicts of interests, and the mandatory information required by 34b WpHG (Securities Trading Law) at the end of this document. This financial analysis in accordance with 34b WpHG is exclusively intended for distribution to individuals that buy or sell financial instruments at their own account or at the account of others in connection with their trading activities, occupation, or employment.
2 Page 2/7 Profit and loss account (31 December) HGB EURm E 2015E 2016E 2017E Sales YoY grow th -44.6% 31.7% -31.1% 29.7% 7.2% 22.7% 55.0% Change in inventories Other work performed Total output Material expenses Staff expenses Other operating income Other operating expenses EBITDA in % of sales -31.4% -7.0% -11.7% 4.2% 6.5% 8.5% 10.5% Amortization, depreciation and impairment EBIT in % of sales -42.0% -12.4% -39.5% -8.2% -4.8% -1.2% 3.1% Net financial result EBT in % of sales -44.0% -14.0% -41.4% -9.6% -5.8% -2.2% 2.2% Extraordinary income/expenses Total taxes Net income including minorities Minority interests Net income attributable to shareholders in % of sales -71.3% -14.1% -42.2% -9.2% -5.8% -2.2% 2.2% Shares outstanding (in millions) Earnings per share (EUR) Dividend per share (EUR) Source: Company Data, Oddo Seydler Bank AG
3 Page 3/7 Balance Sheet HGB EURm E 2015E 2016E 2017E Assets Noncurrent assets as % of total assets 36.7% 38.9% 74.0% 69.5% 61.5% 60.5% 53.2% Property, plant and equipment Intangible assets Financial assets Current assets as % of total assets 63.3% 61.1% 26.0% 30.5% 38.5% 39.5% 46.8% Inventories Trade and other receivables Cash and cash equivalents Other assets Total Assets Shareholders equity and liabilities Shareholders equity as % of total equity and liabilities 35.9% 36.1% 58.8% 62.7% 62.9% 61.3% 62.1% Subscribed capital Capital reserves Other retained earnings Statutory reserves and others Minority interests Provisions Tax provisions Other provisions Liabilities Liabilities to bank Advance payments received on orders Trade payables Other liabilities Total equity and liabilities Source: Company Data, Oddo Seydler Bank AG
4 Page 4/7 Cash flow statement HGB EURm E 2015E 2016E 2017E Net income/loss Depreciation and amortisation Other non-cash expenses/income Gain/loss on disposal of fixed assets Change in provisions Movements in working capital: Change in inventories Change in trade and other receivables Change in trade accounts payable Change in other positions Cash flow from operating activities Capital expenditures for intangibles assets and PPE Receipts from disposals of fixed financial assets Investment in financial assets Cash received from the disposal of fixed assets Cash flow from investing activities Proceeds from capital increase Purchase of treasury stock Increase/Decrease in debt position Dividends paid Increase/Decrease in receivables from partners Cash flow from financing activities Net increase (decrease) in cash&cash equivalents for period Change in the scope of the consolidation Currency adjustment Cash&cash equivalents at beginning of period Cash and cash equivalents at the end of the period Source: Company Data, Oddo Seydler Bank AG
5 Page 5/7 Disclaimer and statement according to 34b German Securities Trading Act ( Wertpapierhandelsgesetz ) in combination with the provisions on financial analysis ( Finanzanalyseverordnung FinAnV) This report has been prepared independently of the company analysed by Oddo Seydler Bank AG and/ or its cooperation partners and the analyst(s) mentioned on the front page (hereafter all are jointly and/or individually called the author ). None of Oddo Seydler Bank AG or its cooperation partners, the Company or its shareholders has independently verified any of the information given in this document. Section 34b of the German Securities Trading Act in combination with the FinAnV requires an enterprise preparing a security analysis to point out possible conflicts of interest with respect to the company that is the subject of the analysis. Oddo Seydler Bank AG is a subsidiary of Oddo & Cie, Paris (hereafter Oddo, together Oddo Group ). However, Oddo Seydler Bank AG (hereafter Oddo Seydler ) provides its research work independent from Oddo. Oddo Group is offering a wide range of Services not only including investment banking services and liquidity providing services (designated sponsoring). Oddo Group may possess relations to the covered companies as follows (additional information and disclosures will be made available upon request): a. Oddo Group holds more than 5% interest in the capital stock of the company that is subject of the analysis. b. Oddo Group was a participant in the management of a (co)consortium in a selling agent function for the issuance of financial instruments, which themselves or their issuer is the subject of this financial analysis within the last twelve months. c. Oddo Group has provided investment banking and/or consulting services during the last 12 months for the company analysed for which compensation has been or will be paid for. d. Oddo Group acts as designated sponsor for the company's securities on the basis of an existing designated sponsorship contract. The services include the provision of bid and ask offers. Due to the designated sponsoring service agreement Oddo Group may regularly possess shares of the company and receives a compensation and/ or provision for its services. e. The designated sponsor service agreement includes a contractually agreed provision for research services. f. Oddo Seydler and the analysed company have a contractual agreement about the preparation of research reports. Oddo Seydler receives a compensation in return. g. Oddo Group has a significant financial interest in relation to the company that is subject of this analysis. In this report, the following conflicts of interests are given at the time, when the report has been published: f Oddo Group and/or its employees or clients may take positions in, and may make purchases and/ or sales as principal or agent in the securities or related financial instruments discussed in this analysis. Oddo Group may provide investment banking, consulting, and/ or other services to and/ or serve as directors of the companies referred to in this analysis. No part of the authors compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the recommendations or views expressed. Recommendation System: Oddo Seydler uses a 3-level absolute share rating system. The ratings pertain to a time horizon of up to 12 months: BUY: The expected performance of the share price is above +10%. HOLD: The expected performance of the share price is between 0% and +10%. SELL: The expected performance of the share price is below 0%. This rating system is only a guideline. Therefore, deviations from this system may apply. Recommendation history over the last 12 months for the company analysed in this report: Date Recommendation Price at change date Price target 23 April 2015 BUY EUR 1.10 EUR December 2014 BUY EUR 1.07 EUR October 2014 BUY EUR 1.03 EUR August 2014 HOLD EUR 1.25 EUR 1.30 The following valuation methods are used when valuing companies: Multiplier models (price/earnings, price/cash flow, price/book value, EV/Sales, EV/EBIT, EV/EBITA, EV/EBITDA), peer group comparisons, historical valuation approaches, discounting models (DCF, DDM), break-up value approaches or asset valuation approaches. The valuation models are dependent upon macroeconomic measures such as interest, currencies, raw materials and assumptions concerning the economy. In addition, market moods influence the valuation of companies.
6 Page 6/7 The figures taken from the income statement, the cash flow statement and the balance sheet upon which the evaluation of companies is based are estimates referring to given dates and therefore subject to risks. These may change at any time without prior notice. The opinions and forecasts contained in this report are those of the author alone. Material sources of information for preparing this report are publications in domestic and foreign media such as information services (including but not limited to Reuters, VWD, Bloomberg, DPA-AFX), business press (including but not limited to Börsenzeitung, Handelsblatt, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, Financial Times), professional publications, published statistics, rating agencies as well as publications of the analysed issuers. Furthermore, discussions were held with the management for the purpose of preparing the analysis. 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