Growth in ReSound leveling off

Transcription

1 GN STORE NORD - REDUCE Growth in ReSound leveling off We expect GN Store Nord to report strong Q4 13 results, but reiterate our Reduce recommendation ahead of the report. With high expectations already in the share price we see limited support from valuation. GN Store Nord will publish its Q4 13 results on 14 February. Focus will be on the outlook for 214 with consensus looking for organic revenue growth in GN ReSound and GN Netcom of 8% and 12.5% respectively. This is more or less in-line with our expectations. Our sum-of-the-parts valuation indicates a fair value of DKK 12, leaving little support to the share price. With high expectations already priced into the share price we do not see room for any disappointment. Fundamental valuation Overvalued Risk Average News flow Positive 12-month target price 135 Closing price 133 Shar e infor m ation High/low latest 12 m 134/9 Price trend (3/12 m) 3%/47% Relative to OMXC2-9%/19% Market value (DKKm) Free float 95% Avg daily vol (DKKm) 72,3 Reuters GN.CO Bloomberg GN DC Looking into Q4 13 we expect GN Store Nord to deliver revenue of DKK 1,887m with organic growth of 11%. Growth in GN ReSound is expected to level off compared to the very high level seen in Q3 13 (13%) that was positively affected by a non-recurring stocking order related to the Costco deal. This will not be replicated in Q4 13. We estimate organic revenue growth of 7% with Hearings Aids growing only slightly above market growth, partly due to the tougher comparisons as ReSound Verso Pr ice tr end GN Store Nord OMXC2 Cap Accounting figures and key figures (DKKm) 212R 213E 214E 215E Sales Operating profit Results before taxes EBIT margin 9,4% 17,% 18,8% 19,7% ROE 5,2% 14,5% 14,7% 14,7% ROIC,1% 16,6% 18,8% 2,5% EPS 1,9 5,1 5,8 6,6 P/E 7,5 26,3 22,8 2,2 EV/EBITA 36,5 19,1 16, 14,2 P/BV 4,1 3,6 3,2 2,8 Dividend,6,9 1, 1, 81 f m a m j j a s o n d j f Source: Jyske Bank & Datastream Jyske Markets, Vestergade 8-16 DK-86 Silkeborg Senior Analyst, Equity Research, Janne Vincent Kjær jvk@jyskebank.dk This investment research is for professional investors only Important investor information: Please see the last page 1

2 was launched in Q4 12. We estimate organic growth in GN Netcom of 17% (consensus:14%) driven by continued strong growth in Unified Communication that is expected to grow 37%. We do not expect the very high growth realized in Q3 13 (+49%) to be sustainable. We continue to see negative organic growth rates in the non-uc market, partly due to cannibalization, and do not believe in a meaningful rebound in sales. Growth in Mobile is expected to trend up slightly compared to Q3 13 that was affected by a significant decline in Chinese demand partly due to inventory build-up in H1 13. We expect growth in the Chinese market to normalize in Q4 13 and estimate organic growth in Mobile of 22%. Consensus JB Chg % Consensus JB (DKKm) Q4 '12R Q4 '13E Q4 '13E Consensus JB 213E 214E 215E 213E 214E 215E Revenue Resound ,5% 3,4% Netcom ,8% 12,7% Other n/a n/a 1 Total ,9% 7,% EBITA:* Resound ,7% 3,9% Netcom ,%,% Other ,2% -23,1% Total ,% 25,7% EBITA-margin: * Resound 19,4% 24,6% 24,6% 5,2 p.p. 5,2 p.p. 2,2% 2,7% 21,6% 22,1% 2,4% 21,5% Netcom 2,3% 2,% 18,% -,3 p.p. -2,3 p.p. 18,3% 18,5% 18,9% 19,% 17,7% 18,1% Total 18,3% 21,6% 21,5% 3,3 p.p. 3,2 p.p. 19,1% 19,2% 2,% 2,3% 19,% 19,8% Result before tax ,2% 176,7% Net result ,4% 212,3% * ex. Restructuring Kilde: Jyske Bank, GN Store Nord We expect GN Store Nord to guide towards organic revenue growth in GN ReSound of more than 7% and EBITA of more than DKK 9m, assuming margins on par with 213 (2% ex SMART costs). This is more or less inline with consensus expectations. In GN Netcom we expect management to guide for organic revenue growth of 12-15% and EBITA of more than DKK 525m, implying a margin of around 18%. 2

3 Overview GN Store Nord Company profile Ownership structure GN Store Nord is a leading manufacturer of hearing aids, diagnostic instruments and headsets sold under the Jabra brand to both Contact Center & Office as well as mobile phone users. GN Netcom is the worlds second largest manufacturer of headsets behind the leading manufacturer, Plantronics. The hearing aids are sold under three brand names, ReSound, Beltone and Interton. GN ReSound holds a position as number four with a global market share of 16%. Øvrige 73% ATP 1% Marathon Asset Managemen t 1% Egne aktier 7% Sales growth and profitability Break-down of sales 15% 1% 5% % -5% -1% -15% Netcom 38% ReSound 62% -2% Sales growth EBITA-margin Fundamental valuation Investment case The market for hearing aids is characterised by stable volume We believe the restructuring potential is fully reflected in growth with an average annual growth over the past 15 years of the current share price. 3.6%. We expect the growth to continue supported by a Market expectations are high with valuation not leaving room positive demographic development. for any disappointment. We see room for margin expansion going into 213 with the Market conditions remain weak making it difficult for GN restructuring programme in GN ReSound on track. However, this Netcom to achieve the targeted growth and margin expansion in is already reflected in the current share price. 213 The headset business is highly cyclical. Historically organic Competition in the hearing aid market remains tough with the growth rates in GN Netcom has been highly reliant on corporate launch of new high-end products from several leading IT spending, labour turnover and consumer spending. manufactures. Unified Communication (UC) is expected to be the key growth We fear that the lack of new breakthrough technologies in the driver in CC&O going forward as the UC market continues to market will make it difficult to secure average selling prices experience high growth rates. over the coming product cycle. Price triggers Successful launch of ReSound Verso Ability to deliver on the mid-term guidance Success in closing the margin gab to peers Positive changes to subsidy schemes Lower average age of first-time users in hearing aids Faster than expected penetration of UC Risk factors Execution risk on its mid-term guidance Implementation of restructuring initiatives The hearing aid market is reasonably resilient to the macroeconomic development. However, macroeconomic uncertainty can have a temporary impact on demand Changes in reimbursement schemes will have a noticeable impact on local demand Increasing competition in the tender market for hearing aids GN Netcom is highly cyclical and have shown in the past a fairly strong correlation to GDP growth Total return 28-74,6% ,5% 21 86,5% 211-5,7% ,8% 213,% 3

4 Date Recommendation Reduce Price at recommendation 89,35 133,3 Yield until next change of recommendation or today 49,19% Index at recommendation 536,67 722,47 Yield until next change of recommendation or today 34,62% Relative performance compared to index 17,88% The tabled prices are the opening price of the day of the recommendation change. Index: OMXC2 4

5 Disclaimer & Disclosure Jyske Bank is supervised by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority. The research report is based on information which Jyske Bank finds reliable, but Jyske Bank does not assume any responsibility for the correctness of the material nor any liability for transactions made on the basis of the information or the estimates of the report. The estimates and recommendations of the research report may be changed without notice. The report is for the personal use of Jyske Bank's customers and may not be copied. This report is an investment research report. Conflicts of interest Jyske Bank has prepared procedures to prevent and preclude conflicts of interest thus ensuring that research reports are being prepared in an objective manner. These procedures have been incorporated in the business procedures covering the equity research activities of Jyske Markets, a business unit of Jyske Bank. Moreover, equity analysts at Jyske Bank cannot trade in equities for which they prepare research reports. If an analyst takes over for the responsible analyst in connection with illness, business travels, etc., this analyst cannot trade in the relevant share on the day of publication of the research report and the following day. Jyske Bank may, however, hold positions, have interests in or business relations with the companies that are analysed. The research report has not been presented to the company prior to its release. Analysts receive no payment from persons interested in individual research reports. Read more about Jyske Bank's policy on conflicts of interest at Contacts for Institutional Clients Kim Sejdelin Christensen Klaus Andersen Manager, Sales Desk, Equities Senior Account Manager sejdelin@jyskebank.dk klaus.andersen@jyskebank.dk Anders Isager Senior Account Manager anders.isager@jyskebank.dk Recommendation Risk-adjusted return Strong buy >2% Jyske Buy Bank s share 1-2% recommendations current allocation Reduce -1% Allocation Sell of recommendations, <% Danish shares (number) Allocation of recommendations, all shares (number) Source: Jyske Bank Financial models 14 2 Share Jyske recommendation Bank employs one concepts or more of the following models: Discounted cash flow (free cash flow), Economic Value Added and the dividend Our model 12 recommendations to determine the are fundamental relative to value the market of a company. development The fundamental and are based value on is compared an evaluation to a of relative the forecast valuation return based within on multiples the coming such 12 as months. P/E and EV/EBITA. The forecast The return recommendation is the difference and the between price target the are current moreover price adjusted and for the expected news flow and the market sentiment 1 15 our 12-month price target (the price target includes the projected based on dividend). knowledge The of the equity industry market and has company-specific historically yielded circumstances. a return of Jyske around Bank s 1% recommendations (the US equity market, take into for account instance, the expected yielded a return development the equity market, the various sectors and company-specific circumstances. 8 of 1% during the period ). When we determine the recommendation for a share we use the 1% as an estimate of the return Risk in the equity market. 1 Investment 6 in this share is associated with a risk. Movements in the equity market, the sector and/or news flows, etc. regarding the company may affect the price of the share. See the front page of the research report for our view of the risk associated with the share. The risk factors Since 4 our recommendations are relative and risk-adjusted, it is possible to compare our recommendations across sectors and risk categories. In addition, the potential is stated in absolute terms via our price target. 5 It should be borne in mind, however, that the recommendation 2 is the anchor. A BUY recommendation will remain a BUY recommendation until changed, even if price increases have stated and/or calculations of sensitivities in the research report are not to be considered all-encompassing. If the share is traded in a currency other than the investor s base currency, the investor accepts an FX risk. In connection with an ADR or similar papers, the FX risk exists relative to the currency in which the underlying share trades. taken the price too close to the price target. Update of research report The planned Strong update Buy of the Buy report will be Reduce prepared immediately Sell upon the release of the company s Strong Buy financial Buy statements. Reduce In addition, research The future and historical returns estimated in the research report are stated as returns before costs and tax-related circumstances Sell since reports may be prepared on special themes specifically for the company or research reports where the company is part of the special theme. returns after costs and tax-related circumstances depend on a number of factors relating to individual customer relations, custodian These research reports are published on an ad-hoc basis. charges, volume of trade as well as market-, currency- and product-specific factors. It is not certain that the share will yield the stated 5 See the front page for the initial date of publication of the report. Source: Jyske Bank expected future return/s. The stated expected future returns exclusively express our best assessment. All prices stated are the latest closing prices before the release of the report, unless otherwise stated.

6 Jens Johansen Senior Account Manager Martin Munk Senior Account Manager US Clients Auerbach Grayson Charlie Gushee Managing Director Tel