What s the Scenario? Winter 2015/2016 Natural Gas Market. A PointLogic Energy Presentation Jack Weixel, Vice President September 29, 2015

Transcription

1 What s the Scenario? Winter 2015/2016 Natural Gas Market A PointLogic Energy Presentation Jack Weixel, Vice President September 29, 2015

2 First off, who is PointLogic Energy? Full service, energy fundamental data service provider. 30 employees consisting of both upstream, midstream and downstream experts with offices in Houston, Denver, and Gaithersburg, MD. Started over 18 years ago as Lippman Consulting (later renamed LCI Energy Insight). Purchased by OPIS in December 2012 and renamed PointLogic Energy in January Over 350 years of combined industry experience. Detailed basin, regional and macro reports spanning multiple delivery platforms.

3 PointLogic Energy Services Detailed Flow Data Production, Demand, Compressors and Custom Throughputs for Every Interstate Pipeline at Every State Border. Notice Service Searchable, Interactive IOC Database Pipeline Project Data and Details Interactive Client Variable Modeling, No Black Boxes Customized Subscription Packages and Enterprise Pricing Best in Class Customer Service Top tier data interface, data delivery in easy to use formats.

4 Get the Point PointLogic Energy s FREE Weekly Trend Report Examines key energy market drivers Written by veteran energy experts and analysts Each weekly issue explores new trends in oil and gas supply, demand and prices Trend analyses leverages proprietary PointLogic Energy data, maps and other intelligence Reliable insight you won t find anywhere else! Sign up for free

5 What s the Scenario? Supply Outlook for Winter 2015/2016 Is production at a standstill? Hostage no more, pipeline escape routes out of the Northeast and what it means for supply Regional imbalances and can the Northeast really supply the lower 48? Demand Outlook for Winter 2015/2016 Summer demand impact on storage levels Expectations for winter demand and the new normal Exports, are they too much of a good thing? Scenarios and Implications on Price

6 What s Going On With Production? Lower 48 Dry Production (Bcf/d) +0.2 Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d -1.0 Bcf/d +1.0 Bcf/d from 12/ Bcf/d from 12/ Bcf/d from 12/

7 Prices remain challenged in 2016 $20.00 Hydrocarbon Value Gap $/MMBtu Equivalent $18.00 $16.00 $14.00 $12.00 $10.00 $8.00 $6.00 $4.00 $2.00 $0.00 Value Gap WTI Crude MB NGLs CAPP Coal HH Gas

8 Production Momentum is Waning Falling Oil/NGL/Gas prices Producer s slash CAPEX 10-50% Rig Counts decline 57% to 802 Producers still expect YoY production growth. Tighter Cash Flows Debt-Servicing Reduced Drill Time Service companies cut costs10-33% Longer laterals Drilled but uncompleted wells Higher initial production rates Pad drilling/well-spacing High-grading Remaining Hedges New Infrastructure/Higher Prices IRR Reset Bond/Equity Issuance

9 Production Forecast Winter Dry Production Forecast through Winter 2016 (Bcf/d) Actual Forecast Prod

10 Year-on-Year Winter Comparison Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d L-48 Production grows 1.8 Bcf/d winter-onwinter Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d

11 Escape Routes from the Northeast Bcf/d E2W, U2GC Rover REX Z3 Phase I Enhancement Rover Phase II, Atlantic Coast Nexus, Leach Xpress, TEAL NED, Atlantic Coast, App. Connector Midwest Canada South-Ohio Valley South-Atlantic Coast New England

12 Unlike 2014, New Capacity isn t 100% Full MMcf/d 2,000 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1, September is 78% utilized ~400 MMcf/d available Rice/Rex Gunslinger Eureka Hunter Capacity REX East to West Markwest Seneca Plant East Ohio Gas MMcf/d September is 69% utilized ~130 MMcf/d available TETCO Uniontown to Gas City

13 Saving Grace Extreme Back-to-Back Winters and Robust Summer Demand Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Bcf/d Demand Supply Net Flows

14 Winter Spreads Narrow with New Routes and Longer Market Michcon Chicago Winter 14/15 Winter 12/13 $0.25 $0.36 $0.20 $3.26 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 $4.00 Winter 14/15 Winter 12/13 Transco Z6 NY $3.24 $3.66 $3.28 $6.72 $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 Winter 15/16 Winter 14/15 Winter 13/14 Winter 12/13 $0.23 $0.36 $0.16 $2.84 $0.00 $1.00 $2.00 $3.00 ($0.91) ($0.92) ($0.35) Dominion SP $0.01 Winter 15/16 Winter 14/15 Winter 13/14 Winter 12/13 * Prices as of 9/18/15 Arrows = Winter Change in Spread ($1.00) ($0.75) ($0.50) ($0.25) $0.00 $0.25

15 Demand to date for Summer Total Demand - Summers in Bcf/d No reason for demand to dip going into late shoulder season as Mexico persists and price is suitable for power generators. 3-Year Range 3-Year Average 2015 Extrap. Forecast

16 Power and Mexico Pushing the Envelope Power up 4.0 Bcf/d Summer TD, Mexico up 1.0 Bcf/d Total Demand up 4.9 Bcf/d Versus Summer 2012 TD, Total Demand Up 3.3 Bcf/d Week on Week Power Burn Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d) Week on Week Mexican Exports Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d)

17 2015 Summer Forecast vs Summer Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Summer 15 Season Base Forecast: 0.8 Bcf/d Short Versus Summer 14 Equates to 173 Bcf less gas available to inject into storage 5.8 Bcf per week lower injection over 30 weeks of summer Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

18 Summer Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Upper Bound: 4.2 Tcf 2014 Injection Rate Lower Bound: 3.0 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum 3.99 Tcf 5 Year Range Demand Forecast

19 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand What do these two temperature outlooks have in common?

20 Power Demand Potential Through Winter 15/ Power Demand - Winter 14/15 vs. 5 Year NonCo Max (Bcf/d) Gap Between Non-Coincidental 5 Year Max and Last Winter Equals 1.0 Bcf/d for Entire Winter Max

21 Scenario #1: EIA Expectations Winter 2015/2016 Demand Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Power 0.0 Industrial 1.2 Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: EIA and PointLogic Energy

22 Scenario #2: PointLogic Expectations Winter 2015/2016 Demand PointLogic Estimates -- Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Up 1.0 Bcf/d Based on 5 Year Max Power Pace of Industrial Gains Slower than Anticipated Industrial Weather is a Marginal Player Winter 15/16 Res/Comm Mex Ex LNG = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: PointLogic Energy

23 Scenario #3: Winter 14/15 Repeat Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Power Industrial Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: PointLogic Energy

24 Winter 2015/16 vs. Winter 2014/15 Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario # Winter 15/16 Scenario Analysis Scenario #1: Market long 1.5 Bcf/d, or 222 Bcf less gas withdrawn Scenario #2: Market long 1.1 Bcf/d, or 162 Bcf less gas withdrawn Scenario #3: Market long 0.6 Bcf/d, or 86 Bcf less gas withdrawn. Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

25 Supply and Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 Storage Inventory (Bcf) Upper Bound: 2.5 Tcf 5 Yr. Maximum 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Lower Bound: 0.8 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum Scenario Tcf Scenario Tcf Scenario Tcf 5 Year Range Demand Forecast 2016 PLE Forecast 2016 EIA Forecast /15 Demand

26 Let s Take Production Down a Notch Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario # Winter 15/16 Lower Production Scenario Analysis Scenario #1: Market long 0.5 Bcf/d, or 75 Bcf less gas withdrawn Scenario #2: Market long 0.1 Bcf/d, or 15 Bcf less gas withdrawn Scenario #3: Market short 0.4 Bcf/d, or 60 Bcf more gas withdrawn. Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

27 Supply and Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Scenario Tcf Scenario Tcf Scenario Tcf Dropping Production Gains to a More Pedestrian 0.8 Bcf/d Winter on Winter Increase Takes 150 Bcf Out of Prior Storage Estimates. Scenario Tcf Scenario 1.88Tcf Scenario Tcf Range 2.1 Tcf 1.8 Tcf 5 Year Range Demand Forecast 2016 PLE Forecast 2016 EIA Forecast /15 Demand

28 Storage Inventory Impact on Price Nov Mar Apr Jul Nov November Can Still Dip Lower as Lower 48 Storage Approaches Historical Fill Record Modest Upward Pressure Going into Jan and Feb as Power and Mexican Export Demand Persist, and LNG Commissioning Cargoes Arrive on Scene. Downward Pressure into Summer 2016 as Market Exits Winter full on Storage Gas.

29 Key Takeaways Lower 48 Production Pains Weigh on Growth Potential. Silver Linings Becoming Harder to Find. Projects to Escape Northeast Provide Cushion for Production Levels, Though May Not Fill Right Away. Winter Demand Expected to Increase Season on Season. Exit Winter 2015/16 on the High Side of Storage Inventories Under Most Scenarios, Unless Serious Winter Shows. Systemic Increase in Demand Led By Mexican Exports Could Lead to Pop in Prices this Winter.

30 Contact Us Today! Jack Weixel Vice President, Analysis Customer Support Phone: ext. 1 support@pointlogicenergy.com Gaithersburg HQ: 9737 Washingtonian Blvd. Sales Phone: ext. 2 sales@pointlogicenergy.com Houston, TX Office: 1155 Dairy Ashford Rd.