Natural Gas Supply and Demand A Delicate Balancing Act. Jack Weixel VP Analysis

Transcription

1 Natural Gas Supply and Demand A Delicate Balancing Act Jack Weixel VP Analysis

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6 What more can we possibly talk about? Lower 48 Balance how did we get here? Demand Expectations and Review of Panel Forecasts Supply Stagnations, Accelerations and Panel Forecast Lower 48 Balance where do we go from here?

7 2015 Summer td vs Summer td Supply Demand Dry Prod 3.2 LNG Can Imports Supply 3.7 Power 4.1 Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Season to date: 1.2 Bcf/d Short Versus Summer 14 to date Was 3.1 Bcf/d Long on May 22 nd Was 1.1 Bcf/d Long on June 12 th Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

8 Power and Mexico Pushing the Envelope Power up 4.1 Bcf/d Summer TD, Mexico up 1.0 Bcf/d Total Demand up 4.8 Bcf/d Versus Summer 2012 TD, Total Demand Up 3.3 Bcf/d Week on Week Power Burn Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d) Week on Week Mexican Exports Delta Summer 15 Versus Summer 14 (Bcf/d)

9 Demand to date for Summer Total Demand - Summers in Bcf/d No reason for demand to dip going into late shoulder season as Mexico persists and price is suitable for power generators. 3-Year Range 3-Year Average 2015 Extrap. Forecast

10 2015 Summer Forecast vs Summer Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex Demand Summer 15 Season Base Forecast: 1.0 Bcf/d Short Versus Summer 14 Equates to 214 Bcf less gas available to inject into storage 7.1 Bcf per week lower injection over 30 weeks of summer Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

11 Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Upper Bound: 4.2 Tcf 2014 Injection Rate Lower Bound: 3.0 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum 3.98 Tcf 5 Year Range Demand Forecast

12 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Power 0.0 Industrial 1.2 Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: EIA and PointLogic Energy

13 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand What do these two temperature outlooks have in common?

14 Expectations for Winter 2015/2016 Demand Up 1.5 Bcf/d vs. EIA STEO Power 1.6 PointLogic Estimates -- Delta to Winter 14/15 (Bcf/d) Pace of Industrial Gains Slower than Anticipated Industrial 0.5 Weather is a Marginal Player Winter 15/16 Res/Comm Mex Ex 1.0 LNG 0.2 = Total Demand Bcf/d Capacity at Sabine Train 1 starting in Dec/Jan. Actual commercial deliveries to start in April 16. Source: EIA and PointLogic Energy

15 Panel Forecasts for Demand Total Domestic Demand Plus Mexico and LNG Exports (Bcf/d) EIA Winter 14/15 Actual PointLogic BTU Analytics Bentek - Weather Normalized SNL Energy* *Derived value with permission, not an official SNL Forecast

16 What s Going On Production? Lower 48 Dry Production (Bcf/d) Production stagnation waning Aug up 1.6 Bcf/d compared to Jan But, production grew 4.5 Bcf/d from Jan to Aug

17 Production Forecast Winter Dry Production Forecast through Winter 2016 (Bcf/d) Actual Forecast Prod

18 Panel Forecasts for Production Dry Production (Bcf/d) EIA Winter 14/15 Actual PointLogic BTU Analytics Bentek Energy SNL Energy

19 Winter 2015/16 vs. Winter 2014/15 Supply Demand Dry Prod LNG Can Imports Supply Power Industrial Res/Com Mex Ex LNG Ex Demand Winter 15/16 Forecast Market could be 0.6 Bcf/d Long versus Winter 2014/15. This equates to 89 Bcf less gas withdrawn over course of season. Source: PointLogic Energy Supply & Demand Report

20 Supply and Demand Impact on Storage 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1, Storage Inventory (Bcf) Lower Bound: 0.8 Tcf 5 Yr. Minimum Upper Bound: 2.5 Tcf 5 Yr. Maximum 1.94 Tcf or 1.89 Tcf Weather Norm or 1.85 Tcf Minimum 5 Year Range Demand Forecast 2016 Forecast 2016 Weather Norm

21 Storage Inventory Impact on Price Oct Feb Apr Jun Oct November Can Still Dip Lower as Lower 48 Storage Approaches Historical Fill Record. Upward Pressure Going into Jan and Feb as Power and Mexican Export Demand Persist, and LNG Exports Arrive on Scene. Downward Pressure into Summer 16 as demand struggles to keep up.

22 Key Takeaways Despite Market Going Short Over the Course of Summer, Rapid Fill to Storage Expected. Winter Demand Expected to Increase Season on Season. Winter Production Flat to Decreasing Season on Season. Impact on Storage Inventories is Negligible Within Range Expected. Systemic Increase in Demand Led By Mexican Exports Could Lead to Pop in Prices this Winter.

23 Contact Us Today! Jack Weixel Vice President, Analysis Customer Support Phone: ext. 1 [email protected] Gaithersburg HQ: 9737 Washingtonian Blvd. Sales Phone: ext. 2 [email protected] Houston Office: 1155 Dairy Ashford Rd.