Buy (Maintained) DEMCO (DEMCO TB) A Giant Leap In 3Q13. Industrial - Electrical Engineering Target Price: THB Market Cap: USD185m Price: THB8.

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1 Nov-12 Jan-13 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Vol m Results Review, 18 November 213 DEMCO (DEMCO TB) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Electrical Engineering Target Price: THB1.5 Market Cap: USD185m Price: THB8.45 A Giant Leap In 3Q Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) DEMCO PCL (DEMCO TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) m/1.82m Cons. Upside (%) 44.4 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) 63 Shareholders (%) Mrs. Praphee Puipunthavong 14.2 Thai NVDR 5.1 Mr.Pradej Kittiisaranon 4.6 Macro Risks 2 Growth. 2 Value DEMCO s 3Q13 earnings soared 17% y-o-y and 444% q-o-q to THB216m, overwhelming our estimates, propelled by realisation of revenue from its solar farm projects and higher-than-expected income from Aeolus Power. We expect this positive momentum to extend into the peak wind season in 4Q13. DEMCO should continue to realise the bulk of its solar farm construction income. Maintain BUY, with a higher TP of THB1.5. Within expectations. DEMCO s 9M13 core earnings of THB28m (- 13.6% y-o-y) were higher than expected, making up 9% of both our and consensus full-year forecasts. The significantly better earnings were mainly due to: i) higher revenue from its solar farm business, which fetches wide margins of 14% vs its electrical engineering projects 11%, and ii) greater-than-expected income from its associate company, Aeolus Power. To realise high backlog in 4Q13. We estimate DEMCO s current backlog at around THB3.7bn, of which some THB1.9bn is expected to be realised in 4Q13. Moreover, the company is bidding for substation and electrical transmission line projects from the Electrical Generating Authority of Thailand and Provincial Electrical Authority worth a total of THB3bn. Assuming a 2.% success rate, DEMCO should make around THB6bn from its winning bids. Continued improvement in 4Q13. We expect DEMCO to realise the rest of its solar farm construction income in 4Q13. Hence, we expect the company s q-o-q performance to improve gradually from 3Q13. We also foresee significant improvement in income from Aeolus Power (from THB8m onwards) as Nov-Dec is the peak wind season of the year. Maintain BUY. Due to higher-than-expected income from its wind energy business, we raise our FY13 and FY14 earnings estimates by 31% and 9.4% respectively, as well as our SOP-based TP to THB1.5. We value DEMCO s core business at THB5.95 per share, based on a 13.5x P/E. We also value its stake in Wind Energy Holding Co (WEH) at THB4.33 per share, using a DDM approach and peg a discount of 8.5% Shariah compliant Kowit Pongwinyoo kowit.po@th.oskgroup.com Chun Phokaisawan chun.ph@th.rhbgroup.com Forecasts and Valuations Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 2,493 3,289 5,94 6,76 6,634 Reported net profit (THBm) Recurring net profit (THBm) Recurring net profit growth (%) Core EPS (THB) DPS (THB) Dividend Yield (%) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) na 8.9 na EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) Our vs consensus EPS (%).. See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1

2 DEMCO (DEMCO TB) 18 November 213 Figure 1: 3Q13 results Consolidated 3QFY13 3QFY12 y-o-y 2QFY13 q-o-q 9MFY13 yoy year to 31 Dec (THBm) (THBm) %chg (THBm) % chg (THBm) %chg Sale (22.4) Gross Profit (25.1) EBITDA (22.7) Pre-tax Profit (22.5) Tax (33.5) (19.6) 71. (9.) (35.2) (51.5) Net Profit (13.6) Net Profit (Ex EI) (13.6) EPS(Bt) (32.8) Gross margin(%) (.5) EBITDA margin(%) (.) Net margin(%) Source: Company data Figure 2: Earnings revision 213F 214F Revised Previous %Chg Revised Previous %Chg Sales 6,76 6,76. 6,634 6,634. EBITDA Net profit Rating BUY BUY Figure 3: P/E bands (x) 25 Figure 4: DEMCO s net income is improving sd: 17.4x sd: 13.5x Mean: 9.5x sd: 5.5x sd: 1.5x.2 Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13-1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13 3Q13 Sales Net income - Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg Source: RHB estimates Figure 5: Peer comparison Company 213F 214F 213F 214F 213F 214F 213F 214F 213F 214F CK STEC SRICHA TRC n.a. n.a. n.a. 1.5 n.a. 1.9 n.a. DEMCO Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg P/E P/BV EV/EBITDA Div yield (%) ROE (%) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

3 DEMCO (DEMCO TB) 18 November 213 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover 2,493 3,289 5,94 6,76 6,634 Cost of sales (2,168) (2,88) (5,68) (5,256) (5,75) Gross profit Gen & admin expenses (22) (23) (328) (462) (464) Operating profit Operating EBITDA Depreciation of fixed assets (43) (33) (21) (23) (24) Amortisation of intangible assets (3) (2) (2) (2) (2) Operating EBIT Net income from investments - (11) (12) Other recurring income Interest expense (19) (41) (18) (74) (79) Pre-tax profit Taxation (39) (48) (78) (88) (141) Minority interests 16 3 (2) (14) (22) Profit after tax & minorities Reported net profit Recurring net profit Cash flow (THBm) Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Operating profit Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital (174) 262 (865) (143) (178) Other operating cash flow Operating cash flow 4 57 (195) Interest received Interest paid (19) (39) (15) (74) (79) Tax paid (43) (52) (17) (88) (141) Cash flow from operations (57) 416 (45) Capex (18) (28) (24) (35) (35) Other new investments (9) (28) (2) (2) (2) Other investing cash flow (14) (667) (556) (1,6) - Cash flow from investing activities (4) (723) (583) (1,97) (37) Dividends paid (12) (35) (129) (194) (218) Shares repurchased (113) (52) Proceeds from issue of shares Increase in debt (9) (342) 87 Other financing cash flow (7) (9) (13) () () Cash flow from financing activities (131) Cash at beginning of period Total cash generated (7) 25 Forex effects (16) Implied cash at end of period See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

4 DEMCO (DEMCO TB) 18 November 213 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total cash and equivalents Inventories Accounts receivable ,178 1,94 1,194 Other current assets 897 1,569 1,216 1,276 1,413 Total current assets 1,574 2,573 2,84 2,767 3,277 Total investments ,288 2,348 2,348 Tangible fixed assets Intangible assets Total other assets Total non-current assets 395 1,85 1,635 2,712 2,724 Total assets 1,969 3,657 4,439 5,478 6,1 Short-term debt , ,22 Accounts payable Other current liabilities Total current liabilities 888 2,514 2,629 2,176 2,346 Total long-term debt Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities 919 2,58 2,691 2,241 2,416 Share capital Retained earnings reserve ,17 Other reserves ,652 1,652 Shareholders' equity 1,29 1,59 1,71 3,186 3,512 Minority interests Other equity Total equity 1,5 1,77 1,748 3,237 3,585 Total liabilities & equity 1,969 3,657 4,439 5,478 6,1 Key Ratios (THB) Dec-1 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Revenue growth (%) Operating profit growth (%) (34.) 29.5 Net profit growth (%) EPS growth (%) (1.6) 1.1 Bv per share growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share (.15).94 (.81) See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

5 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 DEMCO (DEMCO TB) 18 November 213 SWOT Analysis The only contractor in Thailand experienced in constructing wind-powered power plants An economic slowdown in the country Changes in government policies Expanding into Vietnam with WEH Looking to enter the biomass and biogas construction business Unstable revenue stream Dependent on one group of customers P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE 6 25% 4. 35% 5 4 2% 15% % 26% 22% 3 1% 2. 18% 2 1 5% % % 9% 4% -5%. % P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile DEMCO designs and builds electrical transmission lines, substations, and low voltage systems. On top of installing underground cables, building telecommunications towers and manufacturing low-voltage hardware and equipment, the company also distributes power transformers and other electrical products. See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

6 NR DEMCO (DEMCO TB) 18 November 213 Recommendation Chart Recommendations & Target Price Price Close 1 Nov-8 Feb-1 Jun-11 Sep-12 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price Buy Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

7 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 1% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 1% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 1% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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9 Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Corporate Governance Report Rating 213 ADVANC BCP CPF ERW IVL NKI PS ROBINS SCB SNC TCAP TMB UV AOT BECL CPN GRAMMY KBANK NOBLE PSL RS SCC SPALI THAI TNITY VGI ASIMAR BKI CSL HANA KKP PAP PTT S&J SCSMG SPI THCOM TOP WACOAL BAFS BROOK DRT HEMRAJ KTB PG PTTEP SAMART SE-ED SSI THRE TRC BANPU BTS DTAC ICC LPN PHOL PTTGC SAMTEL SIM SSSC TIP TRUE BAY CIMB EASTW INTUCH MCOT PR QH SAT SIS SVI TASCO TTW BBL CK EGCO IRPC MINT PRANDA RATCH SC SITHAI SYMC TKT TVO 2S AYUD CNT GL KKC MBK OISHI SABINA STANLY TK TTCL zzmico ACAP BEC CPALL GLOW KSL MBKET PB SAMCO STEC TLUXE TUF AF BFIT CSC GOLD KWC MFC PDI SCCC SUC TMILL TWFP AHC BH DCC GSTEL L&E MFEC PE SCG SUSCO TMT TYM AIT BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LANNA MODERN PF SEAFCO SYNTEC TNL UAC AKP BJC DTC HMPRO LH MTI PJW SFP TASCO TOG UMI AMANAH BLA ECL HTC LHBANK NBC PM SIAM TCP TPC UMS AMARIN BMCL EE IFEC LHK NCH PPM SINGER TF TPCORP UP AMATA BWG EIC INET LIVE NINE PPP SIRI TFD TPIPL UPOIC AP CCET ESSO ITD LOXLEY NMG PREB SKR TFI TRT UT APCO CENTEL FE JAS LRH NSI PRG SMT THANA TRU VIBHA APCS CFRESH FORTH JUBILE LST NWR PT SNP THANI TSC VIH ASIA CGS GBX KBS MACO OCC PYLON SPCG THIP TSTE VNG ASK CHOW GC KCE MAJOR OFM QTC SPPT TICON TSTH VNT ASP CM GFPT KGI MAKRO OGC RASA SSF TIPCO TTA YUASA *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25,212 A BCH CRANE FPI IT MBAX PICO SGP TBSP TPP WIN AAV BEAUTY CSP FSS JMART MDX PL SIMAT TCCC TR WORK AEC BGI CSR GENCO JMT PRINC POST SLC TEAM TTI AEONTS BLAND CTW GFM JTS MJD PRECHA SMIT TGCI TVD AFC BOL DEMCO GJS JUTHA MK PRIN SMK TIC TVI AGE BROCK DNA GLOBAL KASET MOONG Q-CON SOLAR TIES TWZ AH BSBM DRACO HFT KC MPIC QLT SPC TIW UBIS AI CHARAN EA HTECH KCAR MSC RCI SPG TKS UEC AJ CHUO EARTH HYDRO KDH NC RCL SRICHA TMC UOBKH AKR CI EASON IFS KTC NIPPON ROJNA SSC TMD UPF ALUCON CIG EMC IHL KWH NNCL RPC STA TMI UWC ANAN CITY EPCO ILINK LALIN NTV SCBLIF SUPER TNDT VARO ARIP CMR F&D INOX LEE OSK SCP SVOA TNPC VTE AS CNS FNS IRC MATCH PAE SENA SWC TOPP WAVE BAT-3K CPL FOCUS IRPC MATI PATO SF SYNEX TPA WG *** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, 212. IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเป ดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส งเสร มสถาบ นกรรมการบร ษ ทไทย (IOD) ในเร องการกาก บด แลก จการ (Corporate Governance) น เป นการ ดาเน นการตามนโยบายของสาน กงานคณะกรรมการกาก บหล กทร พย และตลาดหล กทร พย โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป นการสารวจและประเม นจากข อม ลของบรษ ทจด ทะเบ ยนในตลาดหล กทร พย แห งประเทศไทยและตลาดหล กทร พย เอ มเอไอ ท ม การเป ดเผยต อสาธารณะและเป นข อม ลท ผ ลงท นท วไปสามารถเข าถ งได ด งน นผลสารวจ ด งกล าวจ งเป นการนาเสนอในม มมองของบ คคลภายนอกโดยไม ได เป นการประเม นการปฏ บ ต และม ได ม การใช ข อม ลภายในในการประเม น อน ง ผลการสารวจด งกล าว เป นผลการสารวจ ณ ว นท ปรากฎในรายงานการกาก บด และก จการบร ษ ทจดทะเบ ยนไทยเท าน น ด งน นผลการสารวจจ งอาจ เปล ยนแปลงได ภายหล งว นด งกล าว ท งน บร ษ ทหล กทร พย อาร เอสบ โอเอส เค จาก ด (มหาชน) ม ได ย นย นหร อร บรองถ งความถ กต องของผลการสารวจด งกล าวแต อย างใด