Morning Matters. 8-Nov SET Intra-Day Graph WHAT S INSIDE. On The Platter

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1 8-Nov-2013 Morning Matters SET Intra-Day Graph WHAT S INSIDE On The Platter Sino Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB;FVTHB32.0-Buy): Strong 3Q13 Results From Healthy Orderbook Source: Bloomberg Key Market Indices (7 November 2013) Value Chg % Chg % YTD SET % 2.4% SET % 3.2% SET % 3.2% Dow Jones % 19.0% S&P % 22.5% Nasdaq % 27.7% FTSE % 13.6% FSSTI % 1.1% Hang Seng % 1.0% Nikkei % 35.3% KLCI % 7.0% SHANGHAI SE % -6.2% JCI % 3.9% SET 5-yr avg F PE (x) P/BV (x) Yield (%) Key Statistics SET Value by investor Type: Daily Buy (THBm) Sell (THBm) Net (THBm) Institution 4, , Proprietary 5, , Foreign 10, , Retail 22, , SET Value by investor Type MTD (THBm) YTD (THBm) Institution 4, , Proprietary Foreign -6, , Retail 1, , SET50 Index Future Long Short Net MTD YTD Institution 6,164 6, ,165 Foreign 2,458 3, ,518 Local 12,168 10,714 1,454 1, Foreign Fund Flows (USDm) Last MTD YTD YTD(%) , % 3Q13 results beat street estimates, with sales and earnings up by 7% and 29% respectively. The strong performance is set to continue into 4Q13 and beyond. STEC s orderbook looks primed to hit new highs too, supported by the Government s THB2trn infrastructure bill. The recent share price correction gives an opportunity to take a position in STEC a contractor with sound fundamentals and net cash at a 30% discount to its THB32 TP. Maintain BUY. Nok Airlines (NOK TB: FVTHB30.8-Buy) : 9MFY13 Earnings Miss Estimates Nok s 9MFY13 earnings fell short, accounting for only 64% of our full year forecast despite revenue that was in line with expectations. The shortfall was mainly due to higher than expected staff costs. This prompts us to trim our FY13/FY14/FY15 estimates by 7%/7%/5% respectively. Maintain BUY on NoK on account of its net cash position and attractive 5.5% dividend yield. MEDIA HIGHLIGHTS PM urges protesters: Please stop Government in a hurry for infrastructure Nok Air feathers its nest Second year of profit growth cheers Delta, Data-centre power supplies key drivers 7-Eleven operator starts project to cut power bills BBL opens third branch in Indonesia ECONOMIC HIGHLIGHTS Draghi Cuts ECB Rates to Combat Prolonged Inflation Weakness Economy in U.S. Expands at a 2.8% Rate on Inventories Dollar Holds Gains Before Jobs Data as GDP Boosts Fed Taper Bets Emerging Markets Super-Cycle Promises Growth: Cutting Research China Muni-Bond Stalling Shows Debt Threat as Party Meets See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by Enhanced Datasystems EFA TM Platform

2 Media Highlights PM urges protesters: Please stop Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra on Thursday called on anti-amnesty bill demonstrators to stop protesting against her government and let the country move forward, after the House of Representatives agreed to withdraw all six amnesty related bills from its agenda. In a speech broadcast live on television, Ms Yingluck reiterated that the government's planned amnesty move had ended. She asked opponents of the blanket amnesty bill to stop rallying because the country had been greatly bruised from political conflicts in recent years. She was speaking after the five MPs who submitted the six amnesty-related bills all agreed to withdraw their draft legislation and asked for House approval. The House voted to approve the request. She denied rumours that the government was prepared to use violent force to disperse the protesters by deploying military officers to the rally sites, saying only police will handle the situation and all security procedures will be carried out under the law. The general public should not to go near the rally sites as authorities were concerned about third parties trying to incite violence, she said. Meanwhile, the self-named Group of 40 Senators called on the prime minister to dissolve parliament and call a general election to "return power to the people". (Bangkok Post) Government in a hurry for infrastructure Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Kittiratt Na-Ranong said under the plan, the government would spend 186 billion baht on four-lane roads. Building new four-lane roads and widening existing two-lane roads to four lanes can start right away, as these do not require environmental impact assessment reports, he said. The government believes the seven-year investment will jolt the country's lacklustre economy into life as domestic consumption and private investment seem to be running out of steam. The massive investment is expected to help reduce logistics costs and turn Thailand into an Asean transport hub. The borrowing bill is pending Senate deliberation. Although many businessmen support the infrastructure development plan _ 80% of the budget will be spent on high-speed and dual-track rail lines _ the opposition Democrats and the Thailand Development Research Institute have raised questions about the lack of feasibility studies on many of the projects and the cost-effectiveness of others. (Bangkok Post) Nok Air feathers its nest Nok Airlines Plc, a low-cost airline operator, will diversify into travel agency services. Its board approved yesterday the setting up of a travel agency company called Nok Holiday Co Ltd, the company told the Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) yesterday. The subsidiary will have registered capital of 100,000 baht and will be 49% held by the company, with rest to be held by individual shareholders. It is in the process of completing registration and obtaining a travel agency licence. Nok Holiday will provide transportation, accommodation, food and travel guide services for tourists, Nok said in a statement. Nok also reported yesterday a reviewed third-quarter net profit of 245 million baht, up by 16.2% year-on-year. From January- September, the reviewed net profit totalled 921 million baht, up by 179% year-on-year, the company said in a filing after the market closed. Shares of NOK closed yesterday on the SET at baht, down 10 satang, in trade worth 31.1 million baht. (Bangkok Post) Second year of profit growth cheers Delta, Data-centre power supplies key drivers Delta Electronics (Thailand), the largest SET-listed electronics maker, expects a second consecutive year of net profit growth thanks to healthy demand for data-centre power supplies. Executive director Anusorn Muttaraid said earnings should see double-digit growth this year from 4.35 billion baht last year. In 2011, net profit fell by 30% to 2.86 billion baht. For the first nine months of this year, net profit was 4.32 billion baht, up by 22.4% year-on-year, on revenue of 31.4 billion. Mr Anusorn said while the company's solar-inverter business has been slow in Europe and Australia, 4G adoption and cloud computing have yielded healthy demand for telecom and data-centre power supplies. Some 47% of Delta's revenue comes from embedded power supplies for computers, servers and automobiles as well as converters, with 23% from power systems such as solar inverters and telecom power systems. Mobile power contributes 11% of revenue, fans and thermal management 13%, solar power 2% and the rest from other products. (Bangkok Post) 7-Eleven operator starts project to cut power bills CP All Plc, the operator of 7-Eleven convenience stores, is applying energy-saving measures in its stores in Thailand as part of a plan to increase competitiveness amid fierce market competition. ``Energy is a big, challenging issue for us because its price will continuously increase. Energy bills are our second-largest operating cost after human resources,'' said senior vicepresident Suwit Kingkaewaid during his visit to 7-Eleven convenience stores in Japan. The company is applying Japan's best energy-saving technology at new stores in Thailand. CP All opened the first green 7-Eleven store using Japanese technology at the Panyapiwat Institute of Technology in Nonthaburi. The store uses LED bulbs, solar cells and double-layer glass walls to maintain temperature and bring in natural light to reduce the use of electricity. It could cut energy costs by 20%. Excluding the land price, the investment cost for a green store is about 20 million baht, about four times higher than for the regular format. However, Mr Suwit said the company plans to open similar stores. (Bangkok Post) BBL opens third branch in Indonesia The bank sees high potential in the Asean region. With Indonesia's GDP growing by 6% on average in recent years, branches there have had higher growth in profitability than its other foreign branches, said president Chartsiri Sophonpanich. Medan is the capital of North Sumatra and the third-largest city in Indonesia. Thailand's largest bank by asset size entered the Asean market 45 years ago by opening a Jakarta branch in Its second Indonesian branch was opened in Surabaya last year. BBL expects outstanding loans at its Jakarta and Surabaya branches to reach 1 billion baht this year, up 33% from 750 million baht last year. In 2011, the branches' loan portfolio stood at 500 million baht. Indonesia's infrastructure development still lags behind that of Thailand. But with a population of 240 million and rich natural resources, it has great potential to expand as one of the most popular destinations for foreign direct investment from around the world. (Bangkok Post) See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

3 Economic Highlights Draghi Cuts ECB Rates to Combat Prolonged Inflation Weakness The European Central Bank unexpectedly cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low in a bid to prevent slowing inflation from taking hold in a still-fragile euro-area economy. With inflation at the weakest level in four years and less than half the ECB s target, the Frankfurt-based bank halved its key refinancing rate to 0.25 percent in a shift anticipated by just three of 70 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The ECB s first rate reduction since May burnishes Draghi s reputation as a crisisfighter and aligns his bank with counterparts such as the Federal Reserve in recently seeking to reinforce rather than retract monetary support. It leaves the euro-area s main rate just a quarter-point from zero, increasing the likelihood of unconventional tools such as a negative deposit rate if prices slow further or the economy stalls. Almost exactly two years since he marked his arrival at the helm of the ECB by paring interest rates, Draghi s ECB again sprang into action as the 17-nation economy shows new signs of fragility after emerging from its longest-ever recession in the second quarter. (Bloomberg) Economy in U.S. Expands at a 2.8% Rate on Inventories Household purchases and business spending on equipment slowed in the third quarter, even as a buildup in inventories unexpectedly boosted the pace of economic growth in the U.S. The 2.8 percent annualized gain in gross domestic product followed a 2.5 percent increase in the prior three months, Commerce Department figures showed today in Washington. Final sales, which exclude unsold goods, rose 2 percent in the third quarter as consumer spending climbed at the slowest pace since 2011 and corporate investment fell. The biggest gain in inventories since the beginning of 2012 risks holding back the economy this quarter as companies limit production. A 16-day partial shutdown of the federal government added to the headwinds that the Federal Reserve is trying to offset by maintaining $85 billion in monthly bond purchases intended to keep borrowing costs low. (Bloomberg) Dollar Holds Gains Before Jobs Data as GDP Boosts Fed Taper Bets. The dollar held gains against most major counterparts before a U.S. jobs report today, after data yesterday showed the economy expanded more than forecast last quarter, fueling bets for an earlier reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus. The U.S. currency headed for a second weekly gain against the euro as a Bloomberg measure of U.S. economic surprises turned positive for the first time in almost a month. The euro was set for a second weekly loss versus the yen after the European Central Bank unexpectedly cut interest rates to a record yesterday. The Australian dollar headed for its first advance in three weeks against the greenback before data that may show imports in China grew for a fourth month. The Fed is much closer to the end of its easing cycle than the rest of the major central banks and the surprise cut by the ECB confirmed that broader prognosis, said Richard Grace, the Sydney-based chief currency strategist at Commonwealth Bank of Australia. (Bloomberg) Emerging Markets Super-Cycle Promises Growth: Cutting Research The emerging-markets juggernaut that propelled the globe out of the 2009 recession is taking a pause rather than running out of steam. That s the analysis of economists at Standard Chartered Plc, who have updated their 2010 theory that the world economy is in a super cycle of historically high economic growth which lasts a generation. The outlook was challenged this year as developing economies such as China slowed: The International Monetary Fund forecast they will grow in 2013 at the weakest pace since While they have lowered their growth forecasts for China and India, the Standard Chartered team still expects global expansion to accelerate over the next three years as developing economies implement structural improvements allowing their economies to be more productive. China will still have average annual growth of 7 percent through 2020 and 5.3 percent between 2021 and 2030, replacing the U.S. as the world s largest economy by That will help lift emerging markets share of global gross domestic product to as much as 63 percent by 2030 from 38 percent in (Bloomberg) China Muni-Bond Stalling Shows Debt Threat as Party Meets Two years after China started a trial municipal-bond program, plans to take it nationwide have stalled, leaving local authorities reliant on off-budget funding through land seizures that have sparked public protests. While authorities added two provinces to the trial this year, a draft budget proposal authorizing national sales with approved quotas was dropped in June 2012 and has yet to be revived. This year s municipal-bond issuance is equivalent to less than 1 percent of local-government borrowing as of 2010, the last official tally. President Xi Jinping has a fresh opportunity to accelerate efforts to provide more transparent funding for everything from roads to sewers in a conclave of Communist Party leaders that begins tomorrow. The danger of the current model is that keeping local-government lending in the dark elevates the risk of a bad-debt crisis, according to Fraser Howie, who wrote a book on China s financial system. (Bloomberg) See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

4 Outperform Current Target Upside/ Rec. Price Price Downside PE (x) Yield (%) Remarks (Bt) (Bt) (%) 2013F 2013F AAV Buy CENTEL Buy CPN Buy ERW Buy MINT Buy NOK Buy See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

5 8 November 2013 THAI NVDR : Top Ranking Most Active Values (Btmn) NET BUY NET SELL Month to Date Year to Date Nov-'Oct 13 Nov-'Oct 13 Oct13 2 Jan- 07 Nov Net Buy Net Sell Net Buy Net Sell 1 KBANK INTUCH KBANK 1,110.2 INTUCH INTUCH 49,419.7 SCC -11, CPALL LH PTTEP LH BAY 17,456.7 LH -2, ADVANC DTAC BBL BAY ADVANC 17,444.7 SIRI TMB JAS BTS AOT PTT 14,659.3 CK BBL STEC SCC TRUE DTAC 13,573.2 DEMCO SCB TRUE ADVANC DTAC PTTEP 12,717.1 UV SCC BH EGCO THCOM PTTGC 12,053.2 NOBLE PTT TOP CPN MINT STEC 5,036.0 ASP BIGC AAV PTTGC SAMART AOT 5,031.9 RML BAY CK CPALL IRPC CPF 4,772.1 MINT-W EGCO TISCO SCB BLAND CPALL 4,647.4 TRC BTS HMPRO PTT BECL CPN 4,560.2 EARTH PTTGC BANPU BANPU 98.3 HMPRO TOP 4,463.4 JAS CENTEL AP PS 88.6 JAS BIGC 4,278.6 MCOT KTB TTA BEC 87.4 BCH MAKRO 4,182.2 IRPC AOT THCOM BIGC 83.6 SIRI EGCO 3,355.5 GUNKUL BEC SIMAT DELTA 81.5 ANAN THAI 3,353.8 LRH LPN BCP GLOW 81.1 TUF MINT 3,272.3 GLOBAL IVL CPF IVL 71.0 RATCH DELTA 3,251.7 SINGER BGH BLAND TMB 65.6 TISCO TCAP 3,155.8 TWFP NVDR Trading Data by Stock (Volume) NVDR Shares to Total Paid-up Shares(%) Total Volume Shares % NVDR Shrs. % of NVDR Shrs. % of Paid up Capital Buy Sell Total Net Turn. 7-Nov-13 paidup 2-Jan-13 paidup (Last) 1 TMB 64,597,500 4,180,800 68,778,300 60,416, TISCO-P 22, , GJS 14,463,600 53,963,700 68,427,300-39,500, BBL 582,809, ,486, IRPC 9,023,700 8,745,500 17,769, , KBANK 661,793, ,155, LH 3,964,600 13,332,300 17,296,900-9,367, INTUCH 761,989, ,363, BAY 9,169,400 7,946,511 17,115,911 1,222, SPALI 379,248, ,949, TRUE 6,576,700 9,525,700 16,102,400-2,949, E-W1 75,033, ,281, INTUCH 4,510,201 9,831,700 14,341,901-5,321, GOLD-W1 74,197, ,970, CPALL 9,007,901 3,627,200 12,635,101 5,380, THRE 620,308, ,461, JAS 1,681,500 9,206,100 10,887,600-7,524, LH 1,746,343, ,123,251, GSTEL 160,000 10,507,600 10,667,600-10,347, LPN 252,518, ,609, ,858 1,908,842,894 2,393,260,193 3,206,420,305 1,716,553, ,000, ,342,718 3,512,494,860 10,025,921,523 1,475,698, PLE-W2 100,000 5,005,000 5,105,000-4,905, DTAC 377,158, ,525, ,367,811, BTS 4,844, ,862 5,071,308 4,617, TWFP 14,782, ,354, ,060, QH 3,416,600 1,561,700 4,978,300 1,854, TCAP 197,482, ,065, ,277,816, KTB 3,259,503 1,690,900 4,950,403 1,568, THIP 1,160, ,011, IVL 2,764,500 2,068,900 4,833, , EGCO 73,538, ,541, ADVANC 2,805,200 1,877,700 4,682, , AP 399,098, ,964, NIPPON-W 451,400 4,200,000 4,651,400-3,748, LALIN 113,087, ,592, KBANK 3,597, ,600 4,499,986 2,694, STEC 202,401, ,117, ERW 2,150,000 2,321,100 4,471, , BAY 799,890, ,803, ,000, ,465,000 2,859,920, ,000,000 1,525,106,540 6,074,143, BLAND 1,255,986 3,204,600 4,460,586-1,948, PRANDA 52,567, ,270, ,144,800 Source : SET.OR.TH

6 Company Update, 8 November 2013 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC TB) Buy (Maintained) Industrial - Engineering & Construction Target Price: THB32.0 Market Cap: USD1,072m Price: THB22.0 Strong 3Q13 Results From Healthy Orderbook Macro Risks Growth Value Vol m Nov-12 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction Plc (STEC TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) Jan-13 Source: Bloomberg Mar-13 Avg Turnover (THB/USD) May-13 Jul-13 Sep m/9.59m Cons. Upside (%) 25.0 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) 69 Shareholders (%) Charnvirakul family 24.0 NVDR 6.2 UBS AG Singapore 4.9 Shariah compliant Kowit Pongwinyoo License No kowit.po@th.oskgroup.com 3Q13 results beat street estimates, with sales and earnings up by 7% and 29% respectively. The strong performance is set to continue into 4Q13 and beyond. STEC s orderbook looks primed to hit new highs too, supported by the Government s THB2trn infrastructure bill. The recent share price correction gives an opportunity to take a position in STEC a contractor with sound fundamentals and net cash at a 30% discount to its THB32 TP. Maintain BUY. 3Q13 sales grew 7% while earnings surged 29%. STEC s 3Q13 and 9M13 sales grew 7% and 13% y-o-y to THB6.2bn and THB16.3bn, respectively on the back of a solid THB47bn orderbook (accounting for 2.4 years of its annual sales). Its 3Q13 sales also grew 33% q-o-q. Major contributions came from the construction of the Purple Line, Blue Line, and Gulf JP s power plant projects. 3Q13 gross and EBITDA margins increased significantly to 8.8% (7.6% in 3Q12) and 8.1% (6.7% in 3Q12) respectively, as there was mix of more projects with higher margins like power plants. After a lower tax rate (20% vs 3Q12 s 23%) and interest expenses, STEC 3Q13 earnings increased strongly by 29% to THB387m, while its 9M13 earnings rose 22% to THB1.1bn. Both 3Q13 sales and earnings were better than our and street estimates. Expect 2013 earnings to grow 23%. Due to its healthy orderbook and good margins, we expect STEC s sales and earnings to remain strong y- o-y in 4Q13. However, they may soften q-o-q on seasonal effect. Therefore, we maintain our 23% earnings growth forecast for As we expect the THB2trn infrastructure bill will be approved by Parliament in 1HCY14, we expect STEC s orderbook to continue rising making a record high next year. This will enable the company to enjoy a healthy 17-18% earnings growth in the next two years. Maintain BUY. The recent share price correction was a result of the political uncertainty. STEC s sound fundamentals are intact and it is poised to receive the full benefit from the infrastructure bill. As we expect the political situation to be resolved soon, we maintain our BUY recommendation. Its current share price offers an opportunity to get into STEC at a 30% discount to its THB32 TP, based on its 5.9x P/BV. At the current price, it still offers a 43% upside to our TP. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover (THBm) 9,291 14,854 19,872 22,266 26,147 Reported net profit (THBm) ,165 1,430 1,680 Recurring net profit (THBm) ,165 1,430 1,680 Recurring net profit growth (%) Core EPS (THB) DPS (THB) Dividend Yield (%) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) na na EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (%) 7.6 (4.2) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1

7 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction PCL (STEC TB) 8 November 2013 Figure 1: 3Q13 results Consolidated 3Q13 y-o-y q-o-q 9M13 y-o-y Year to 31 Dec (THBm) % chg % chg (THBm) % chg Sales 6, , Gross Profit , EBITDA , Pre-tax Profit , Tax (100) (280) 57.3 Net Profit , Recurring Net Profit , EPS (THB) Gross margin (%) (1.9) EBITDA margin (%) (0.5) Net margin (%) Source: RHB estimates Figure 2: STEC s orderbook Source: Company, RHB estimates See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

8 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction PCL (STEC TB) 8 November 2013 Financial Exhibits Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total turnover 9,291 14,854 19,872 22,266 26,147 Cost of sales (8,431) (13,622) (18,198) (20,151) (23,661) Gross profit 860 1,232 1,674 2,115 2,487 Other operating costs (441) (482) (561) (630) (706) Operating profit ,113 1,485 1,781 Operating EBITDA 831 1,125 1,483 1,893 2,201 Depreciation of fixed assets (412) (375) (370) (408) (420) Operating EBIT ,113 1,485 1,781 Net income from investments (33) (45) (47) Other recurring income Interest expense (11) (12) (18) (37) (37) Pre-tax profit ,418 1,798 2,111 Taxation (3) (23) (253) (369) (432) Minority interests 1 (3) Profit after tax & minorities ,165 1,430 1,680 Reported net profit ,165 1,430 1,680 Recurring net profit ,165 1,430 1,680 Cash flow (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Operating profit ,113 1,485 1,781 Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital (1,179) (1,480) 2,360 (1,110) (1,457) Operating cash flow (348) (355) 3, Interest paid (11) (12) (18) (37) (37) Dividends received Tax paid (3) (23) (253) (369) (432) Cash flow from operations (291) (221) 3, Capex 80 (637) (148) (634) (295) Cash flow from investing activities 80 (637) (148) (634) (295) Dividends paid (154) (261) (652) (583) (715) Proceeds from issue of shares Increase in debt (47) Other financing cash flow 1,408 2, ,106 Cash flow from financing activities 1,207 2,308 (38) Cash at beginning of period 1,061 2,057 3,507 7,189 8,203 Total cash generated 996 1,450 3,682 1, Implied cash at end of period 2,057 3,507 7,189 8,203 8,992 See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

9 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction PCL (STEC TB) 8 November 2013 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Total cash and equivalents 2,057 3,507 7,189 8,203 8,992 Inventories 1, Accounts receivable 959 2,184 1,824 3,157 5,015 Other current assets 3,232 5,152 6,590 7,119 7,962 Total current assets 7,291 11,688 15,925 18,843 22,397 Total investments 108 2,276 2,162 2,277 2,399 Tangible fixed assets 2,624 2,074 2,160 2,375 2,446 Total other assets Total non-current assets 2,917 4,386 4,371 4,704 4,899 Total assets 10,208 16,074 20,296 23,547 27,296 Short-term debt Accounts payable 3,172 5,262 8,505 9,420 11,063 Other current liabilities 2,284 4,629 4,967 5,813 6,925 Total current liabilities 5,533 10,006 13,664 15,713 18,469 Total long-term debt Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities 5,629 10,236 14,184 16,249 19,033 Share capital 1,186 1,186 1,186 1,525 1,525 Retained earnings reserve 753 2,351 2,646 3,494 4,459 Other reserves 2,542 2,097 2,097 2,097 2,097 Shareholders' equity 4,482 5,635 5,930 7,116 8,081 Minority interests Other equity (0) 0 Total equity 4,579 5,838 6,112 7,298 8,263 Total liabilities & equity 10,208 16,074 20,296 23,547 27,296 Key Ratios (THB) Dec-10 Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Revenue growth (%) (22.5) Operating profit growth (%) Net profit growth (%) EPS growth (%) Bv per share growth (%) (6.7) 13.6 Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) (41.3) (56.1) (112.0) (103.8) (101.2) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share (0.25) (0.19) See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

10 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction PCL (STEC TB) 8 November 2013 SWOT Analysis Healthy orderbook Strong and solid balance sheet with net cash position Massive infrastructure projects by the Government A lot of power plants are needed Volatility in prices of construction materials Delays in the implementation of Governmentbacked infrastructure projects Contracts are long-term in nature Labour intensive P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE % % % 93% 80% 67% % 18% 14% % 40% 27% 13% % 7% 4% 0 0% 0.0 0% Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Sino Thai Engineering & Construction (STEC) is one of the leading engineers and contractors in Thailand with over 40 years of experience in private and public projects. STEC's competitive advantage is its vast experience in the construction of power and petrochemical plants. See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

11 Sino Thai Engineering & Construction PCL (STEC TB) 8 November 2013 Recommendation Chart Price Close 35 Recommendations & Target Price 30 NR Nov-08 Feb-10 May-11 Aug-12 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price Buy Trading Buy Trading Buy Trading Buy Buy Buy Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

12 9MFY13 Results Review, 8 November 2013 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) Buy (Maintained) Consumer Cyclical - Airlines Target Price: THB30.8 Market Cap: USD491m Price: THB24.6 9MFY13 Earnings Miss Estimates Macro Risks Growth Value Nok Airlines (NOK TB) Price Close Relative to Stock Exchange of Thailand Index (RHS) Nok s 9MFY13 earnings fell short, accounting for only 64% of our full year forecast despite revenue that was in line with expectations. The shortfall was mainly due to higher than expected staff costs. This prompts us to trim our FY13/FY14/FY15 estimates by 7%/7%/5% respectively. Maintain BUY on NoK on account of its net cash position and attractive 5.5% dividend yield. Vol m Jun-13 Jul-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Sep-13 Oct Earnings fall short. Nok posted a 9MFY13 core net profit of THB911m (YTD: +172%) on revenue of THB8.148bn (YTD: +40%). Despite the strong earnings growth, its 9MFY13 earnings - which accounted for 64% of our initial full-year forecast - missed our and consensus estimates. The shortfall was attributed to higher staff costs amid the carrier s aggressive expansion. Nok s 9MFY13 revenue made up 70% of our full year forecast. This is in line with our estimate as we anticipate a seasonally stronger 4QFY13. Passenger yields may have deteriorated. Owing to competition on Nok s routes to/from major cities, its yields may have deteriorated although this could be likely be offset by the yield growth from routes to/from second and third tier cities. Although the carrier has yet to release its operating stats for 3QFY13, we believe that these are likely to be within our expectations of a 45% capacity growth for FY13. Source: Bloomberg Avg Turnover (THB/USD) 56.5m/1.79m Cons. Upside (%) 22.0 Upside (%) wk Price low/high (THB) Free float (%) 33 Shareholders (%) Thai Airways International 39.2 Aviation Investment 10.0 CPB Equity 4.8 Shariah compliant Trimming estimates. We leave our revenue forecasts unchanged, but trim our FY13/FY14/FY15 bottomline estimates by 7%/7%/5% respectively. The earnings cut is attributed to the higher than expected costs incurred, notably staff wages, although this was cushioned by the lower tax paid as Nok continued to benefit from tax incentives on capex spent. We are also lowering our USD/THB assumptions for FY13-FY15 to THB31/USD1 from THB29/USD1 earlier. Maintain BUY, with lower FV. We reduce our FV to THB30.8 (from THB37.6 earlier), premised on an unchanged adjusted EV/ EBITDAR of 7.5x on FY14 numbers. With a 25.4% potential upside on top of the stock s 5.5% dividend yield next year, we continue to be upbeat on Nok s prospects as it is on an aggressive expansion that would give rise to further economies of scale. Maintain BUY call in view of the company s net cash position and appealing dividend yield. Forecasts and Valuations Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover (THBm) 6,039 8,218 11,719 15,272 19,498 Reported net profit (THBm) ,318 1,677 2,410 Recurring net profit (THBm) ,318 1,677 2,410 Recurring net profit growth (%) (67.3) Core EPS (THB) Thailand Research Team ext.2030 DPS (THB) Dividend Yield (%) Core P/E (x) Return on average equity (%) P/B (x) P/CF (x) EV/EBITDA (x) Net debt to equity (%) net cash net cash net cash net cash net cash Our vs consensus EPS (%) 5.3 (4.8) (2.0) See important disclosures at the end of this report Powered by EFA TM Platform 1

13 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 8 November 2013 Quarterly results highlights FYE Dec (THB'm) 3QFY12 2QFY13 3QFY13 q-o-q (%) y-o-y (%) 9MFY12 9MFY13 y-o-y (%) Comments Revenue 2, , , , , Within. Accounting for 70% of our full-year forecast. Growth driven by seat capacity optimization EBITDA (2.6) , , Below. Costs items that surprised on the upside were staff costs as well as leasing costs. Strong growth in EBITDA driven by economies of scale from operating a bigger fleet. EBITDA Margin (%) (1.8) Margins improved YTD on economies of scale achieved Depreciation (13.0) (12.8) (12.2) (4.5) (5.9) (37.7) (37.9) 0.6 No major capex acquisitions EBIT (17.0) EBIT Margin (%) (2.0) (2.2) Interest expense na na - - na Interest income Associates na na - - na EI/Others (7.6) (25.9) (151.0) (4.6) 9.1 (296.7) Disposal of equipment Pretax profit (8.0) Below. Accounting for 53% of our previous forecasts. Pretax Margin (%) (1.3) (0.8) Tax 3.1 (9.8) (3.8) (60.9) (221.9) (8.8) (30.1) Effective tax rate 1.5 (3.6) (1.5) 2.1 (3.1) (2.6) (3.2) (0.6) Tax incentives sharply reduce (%) effective tax rate. Minority Interest na na - - na Net Profit (6.0) Core Profit (5.6) Below. Accounting for 65% of fullyear earnings. We trim our earnings forecasts by 7%/7%/5% for FY13/FY14/ FY15 Net Margin (%) (1.0) (1.6) Source: RHB estimates, Company Data Figure 1: Computation of Nok s valuation Capitalized Fleet Value (x 8 years) - THBm 19,513.9 Less: Net Cash - THBm 6,328.8 Net Capitalized Fleet - THBm 13,185.1 Adjusted EV/EBITDAR multiple applied (x) 7.5 x: FY14 EBITDAR - THBm 4,327.8 Adjusted EV - THBm 32,458.2 Less: Net Capitalized Fleet - THBm 13,185.1 Market Cap value - THBm 19,273.1 Divided by: Number of Shares - m FV per share - THB 30.8 Implied FY14 P/E (x) 11.5 Implied FY14 EV/EBITDA (x) 6.9 Implied FY13 PEG (X) 0.4 Source: RHB estimates, Company data See important disclosures at the end of this report 2

14 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 8 November 2013 Financial Exhibits Key Assumptions Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F ASK (m) RPK (m) Load Factor (%) 80.3% 84.2% 83.0% 82.0% 82.0% Number of flights Number of aircraft (average) Capacity 3,897,743 4,933,503 7,214,431 8,892,481 10,796,179 Number of passengers 3,140,000 4,120,000 5,987,978 7,291,835 8,852,866 Aircraft Utilization hours Passenger Yield (THB) RASK (THB) CASK (THB) CASK - ex fuel (THB) Jet Fuel (USD/barrel) Source: RHB estimates, Company data Profit & Loss (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total turnover 6,039 8,218 11,719 15,272 19,498 Cost of sales (4,839) (6,341) (8,717) (11,663) (14,952) Gross profit 1,200 1,876 3,002 3,609 4,546 Gen & admin expenses (943) (1,142) (1,697) (1,988) (2,216) Operating profit ,305 1,621 2,330 Operating EBITDA ,395 1,889 2,659 Depreciation of fixed assets (32) (38) (79) (256) (316) Amortisation of intangible assets (12) (12) (12) (12) (12) Operating EBIT ,305 1,621 2,330 Interest income Exceptional income - net 2 (255) Pre-tax profit ,359 1,766 2,537 Taxation (92) (15) (41) (88) (127) Profit after tax & minorities ,318 1,677 2,410 Reported net profit ,318 1,677 2,410 Recurring net profit ,318 1,677 2,410 Cash flow (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Operating profit ,305 1,621 2,330 Depreciation & amortisation Change in working capital 42 (45) (280) (227) (239) Other operating cash flow 32 (36) 26 (48) (104) Operating cash flow ,141 1,613 2,315 Interest received Tax paid (87) 98 (14) (37) (79) Cash flow from operations ,181 1,721 2,442 Capex (45) (50) (2,333) (1,576) (1,576) Other new investments (13) (8) Other investing cash flow (315) (322) Cash flow from investing activities (373) (380) (2,283) (1,442) (1,385) Proceeds from issue of shares - - 3, Other financing cash flow (100) (414) (250) (659) (839) Cash flow from financing activities (100) (414) 3,000 (659) (839) Cash at beginning of period ,144 1,764 Total cash generated (152) 50 1,898 (380) 218 Forex effects 0 (0) Implied cash at end of period ,144 1,764 1,982 See important disclosures at the end of this report 3

15 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 8 November 2013 Financial Exhibits Balance Sheet (THBm) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Total cash and equivalents 1,247 1,657 4,437 6,329 8,773 Inventories Accounts receivable Other current assets ,058 1,297 Total current assets 1,857 2,098 5,388 7,533 10,260 Total investments Tangible fixed assets ,053 3,347 4,896 Intangible assets Total other assets Total non-current assets ,129 3,402 4,953 Total assets 2,016 2,252 7,518 10,935 15,213 Accounts payable Other current liabilities ,764 2,678 3,644 Total current liabilities 1,145 1,273 2,362 3,442 4,472 Other liabilities Total non-current liabilities Total liabilities 1,218 1,364 2,476 3,585 4,650 Share capital Retained earnings reserve ,625 2,625 2,625 Other reserves ,792 4,100 7,313 Shareholders' equity ,042 7,350 10,563 Total equity ,042 7,350 10,563 Total liabilities & equity 2,016 2,252 7,518 10,935 15,213 Key Ratios (THB) Dec-11 Dec-12 Dec-13F Dec-14F Dec-15F Revenue growth (%) Operating profit growth (%) (58.7) Net profit growth (%) (66.8) EPS growth (%) (66.8) Bv per share growth (%) Operating margin (%) Net profit margin (%) Return on average assets (%) Return on average equity (%) Net debt to equity (%) (156.4) (186.5) (88.0) (86.1) (83.1) DPS Recurrent cash flow per share See important disclosures at the end of this report 4

16 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 8 November 2013 SWOT Analysis Thailand is a popular tourism hub Favorable demographics Strong branding Extensive booking and payment distribution channel Earnings are susceptible to volatility in jet fuel prices. Bangkok is set to be AirAsia X s second hub, which should draw more tourists to the region. Room to increase gearing to buy more aircraft Net cash position is not strong enough to make significant aircraft acquisitions Venturing into international routes could be challenging due to intensifying competition P/E (x) vs EPS growth P/BV (x) vs ROAE % 18 70% % 114% 71% % 54% 47% 39% % -14% -57% % 23% 16% 8% 0-100% 0 0% Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 P/E (x) (lhs) EPS growth (rhs) P/B (x) (lhs) Return on average equity (rhs) Company Profile Nok Air is one of Thailand s leading low-cost carriers with the most extensive domestic route coverage. It operates out of two hubs - Chiang Mai and Don Mueang. See important disclosures at the end of this report 5

17 Nok Airlines (NOK TB) 8 November 2013 Recommendation Chart Recommendations & Target Price Price Close Jun-13 Aug-13 Sep-13 Oct-13 Buy Neutral Sell Trading Buy Take Profit Not Rated Source: RHB estimates, Bloomberg Date Recommendation Target Price Price Buy Source : RHB estimates, Bloomberg See important disclosures at the end of this report 6

18 RHB Guide to Investment Ratings Buy: Share price may exceed 10% over the next 12 months Trading Buy: Share price may exceed 15% over the next 3 months, however longer-term outlook remains uncertain Neutral: Share price may fall within the range of +/- 10% over the next 12 months Take Profit: Target price has been attained. Look to accumulate at lower levels Sell: Share price may fall by more than 10% over the next 12 months Not Rated: Stock is not within regular research coverage Disclosure & Disclaimer All research is based on material compiled from data considered to be reliable at the time of writing, but RHB does not make any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to its accuracy, completeness or correctness. No part of this report is to be construed as an offer or solicitation of an offer to transact any securities or financial instruments whether referred to herein or otherwise. This report is general in nature and has been prepared for information purposes only. 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20 Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) Corporate Governance Report Rating 2012 ADVANC BCP DRT IRPC NOBLE QH SC SYMC TOP AOT BECL EASTW KBANK PHOL RATCH SCB THAI TSTE ASIMAR BKI EGCO KK PS ROBINS SCC TIP TTA BAFS BMCL ERW KTB PSL RS SE-ED TIPCO BANPU BTS GRAMMY LPN PTT SAMART SIM TISCO BAY CPN HEMRAJ MCOT PTTEP SAMTEL SIS TKT BBL CSL ICC NKI PTTGC SAT SNC TMB 2S BROOK DTAC HMPRO MACO OFM S&J SSSC THRE TSC ACAP BWG DTC HTC MAKRO OGC S&P STANLY TIC TSTH AF CENTEL ECL IFEC MBK OSIHI SABINA STEC TICON TTW AIT CFRESH EE INTUCH MBKET PAP SAMCO SUC TIW TUF AKR CGS EIC ITD MFC PDI SCCC SUSCO TK TVO AMATA CHOW ESSO IVL MFEC PE SCG SVI TLUXE UAC AP CIMBT FE JAS MINT PG SCSMG SYNTEC TMT UMI ASK CK FORTH KCE MODERN PHATRA*** SFP TASCO TNITY UP ASP CM GBX KGI MTI PJW SITHAI TCAP TNL UPOIC AYUD CPALL GC KSL NBC PM SMT TCP TOG UV BEC CPF GFPT L&E NCH PR SPALI TFD TPC VIBHA BFIT CSC GL LANNA NINE PRANDA SPCG TFI TRC VNT BH DCC GLOW LH NMG PRG SPI THANA TRT WACOAL BIGC DELTA GUNKUL LRH NSI PT SPPT THCOM TRU YUASA BJC DEMCO HANA LST OCC PYLON SSF THIP TRUE ZMICO *** PHATRA was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, AEONTS BGT CMO GENCO JTS LHBANK NC PTL SGP SWC TPAC UT AFC BLA CNS GFM JUBILE LHK NNCL Q-CON SIAM SYNEX TPCORP VARO AGE BNC CNT GLOBAL JUTHA LIVE NTV QLT SIMAT TBSP TPIPL WAVE AH BOL CPL GOLD KASET LOXLEY OSK QTC SINGER TCB TPP WG AHC BROCK CRANE HFT KBS MAJOR PAE RASA SIRI TEAM TR WIN AI BSBM CSP HTECH KC MATCH PATO RCL SKR TF TTCL WORK AJ BTNC CSR HYDRO KDH MATI PB RICH SMIT TGCI TWFP ALUCON BUI CTW IFS KIAT MBAX PICO ROJNA SMK THANI TYCN AMANAH CCET DRACO IHL KKC M-CHAI PL RPC SOLAR TKS UBIS APCO CEN EASON ILINK KTC MDX POST SAM SPC TMD UEC APCS CHUO EMC INET KWC MJD PPM SCBLIF SPG TMI UIC APRINT CI EPCO IRC KWH MK PREB SCP SSC TNH UMS ARIP CIG FNS IRCP KYE MOONG PRECHA SEAFCO SST TNPC UOBKH AS CIMBI*** FOCUS IT LALIN MPIC PRIN SENA STA TOPP UPF ASIA CITY FSS JMART LEE MSC PSAAP SF SVOA TPA US *** CIMBI was voluntarily delisted from the Stock Exchange of Thailand effectively on September 25, IOD (IOD Disclaimer) การเป ดเผลผลการสารวจของสมาคมส งเสร มสถาบ นกรรมการบร ษ ทไทย (IOD) ในเร องการกาก บด แลก จการ (Corporate Governance) น เป นการ ดาเน นการตามนโยบายของสาน กงานคณะกรรมการกาก บหล กทร พย และตลาดหล กทร พย โดยการสารวจของ IOD เป นการสารวจและประเม นจากข อม ลของบรษ ทจด ทะเบ ยนในตลาดหล กทร พย แห งประเทศไทยและตลาดหล กทร พย เอ มเอไอ ท ม การเป ดเผยต อสาธารณะและเป นข อม ลท ผ ลงท นท วไปสามารถเข าถ งได ด งน นผลสารวจ ด งกล าวจ งเป นการนาเสนอในม มมองของบ คคลภายนอกโดยไม ได เป นการประเม นการปฏ บ ต และม ได ม การใช ข อม ลภายในในการประเม น อน ง ผลการสารวจด งกล าว เป นผลการสารวจ ณ ว นท ปรากฎในรายงานการกาก บด และก จการบร ษ ทจดทะเบ ยนไทยเท าน น ด งน นผลการสารวจจ งอาจ เปล ยนแปลงได ภายหล งว นด งกล าว ท งน บร ษ ทหล กทร พย อาร เอสบ โอเอส เค จาก ด (มหาชน) ม ได ย นย นหร อร บรองถ งความถ กต องของผลการสารวจด งกล าวแต อย างใด