INTRODUCTION TO TBEST. An FDOT Model for Short Range Transit Ridership Forecasting

Transcription

1 INTRODUCTION TO TBEST An FDOT Model for Short Range Transit Ridership Forecasting

2 Welcome Thanks for taking the time to learn more about TBEST Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool Target Audience technical professionals and decision-makers involved in transit service planning or transit market analysis who want to learn more about state-of-the-art methodologies being used in Florida.

3 Welcome Webinar objective Provide an overview of critical considerations and the state of the practice in modeling transit ridership for service planning Provide an overview of the features, capabilities and data integrated into the TBEST model Preview the direction of model development to respond to agency needs Demonstrate the user convenience and visualization capabilities of using TBEST

4 Current TBEST Team Steve Polzin, Xuehao Chu and Mark Mistretta Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), Univ. of South Florida, Tampa Software Development: Rodney Bunner CUTR and Independent Contractor, Tampa TBEST Website Management: Martin Catala Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR), Univ. of South Florida, Tampa FDOT Project Manager: Daniel Harris Florida Department of Transportation, Tallahassee

5 Introduction What is TBEST? Transit Demand Modeling/Analysis Software Developed by Florida Department of Transportation, Public Transit Office Software Goal Comprehensive Transit Network Modeling, Management and Analysis Software with a focus on short to mid-term transit planning Software Objectives Sensitive to service adjustments (operational, schedule, alignment, system, and fare) User-friendly Cost-Effective Scalable (Indian River to LA Metro) Modest Data Requirements Standard modeling methodology to be used by any agency for Transit Development Plan (TDP) ridership estimation

6 Motivation FDOT/planners wanted a software tool for short-term transit service planning designed specifically for transit. Serve as FDOT provided ridership estimation technique for required Transit Development Plans Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool (TBEST) has been in production for several years and is on its 4 th Major Version (4.0). FDOT is continually supporting the improvement of TBEST and the supporting databases.

7 Why TBEST? Changes in transit service are ongoing 5 new properties have added fixed route transit since 2000 Florida transit ridership changes ranged from 200+% to a -20% in the ten years between 1996 and Resource availability changes at local, state, and federal level Florida population growth and travel pattern change is dramatic Adjacent systems are integrating and merging Staff changes are constant

8 The Planners are the Ultimate Experts But? Relatively high staff turnover and young staff Dynamic situations that benefit from systematic databases High demands for a standardized method to insure consistency and equity Opportunities to leverage computing power and GIS capabilities Capability to present the results in a public friendly series of maps and tables

9 TBEST Characteristics TBEST is designed to: Capture access at the walk scale to/from transit One-half of homes in the U.S. are within a half mile of transit -- one half aren t Capture accessibility via the transit network Allow for special generators including park-n-ride Respond to resident demographic characteristics Respond to workplace employment type

10 TBEST Characteristics TBEST is designed to: Incorporate the fact that 1/3 of transit boardings are transfers (50% transfer rate) Accommodate service features of fare, speed, frequency, etc. Accommodate fundamental differences in route types (local, circulator, express) Automatically adapt to different urban locations without developing new model equations (transferable)

11 Modeling and Prediction Framework Direct Demand Model Not mode choice model Early work based on route-level analysis Recent work based on segment/stop-level analysis Considers inter-route relationships Stop-Level Analysis Physical location Route Direction Multiple Analysis Periods 4 weekday time periods Saturday Sunday Relationships in a Transit Network Neighboring stops Accessible stops Accessibility measures/transfer potential Separate Direct and Transfer Boardings

12 TBEST Logic TBEST is a transit trip generation model: It does not respond to gas prices or auto travel cost Beyond validation to local conditions it does not respond to service quality changes (cleanliness, comfort, reliability, marketing, safety/security, presence of shelters, etc.) Not interactive with auto travel doesn t respond to changes in competitive position of transit and auto.

13 What can TBEST be used for? Strategic Planning (5 and 10 year forecasts for TDPs) Service Planning (Fixed route bus based operations) Analysis Tools (Corridor, Area, Sites) Scalable to various property sizes GIS Data Management

14 Future Evolution of TBEST Ongoing (2011): Development of a capability to use parcel level data to assign address locations to households. Enhanced treatment for special generators. Development of more refined trip attraction variables at the parcel level. Future (2011+ ): Tech support and refinement based on user feedback. Calibration with BRT, LRT modes. Tool to allow for import of a Google Transit compliant network and the ability to convert a network from Trapeze or HASTUS scheduling software. Module to calculate route level operating costs. Examine data sources that can be used to replace the current use of 2000 census data for socio-demographics.

15 TBEST 4.0 TBEST 4.0 represents a technology shift to be compatible with latest advances from Microsoft and ESRI s ArcGIS Technology upgrade to Microsoft.NET Provides compatibility with Windows 7 Provides compatibility with ArcGIS 10 Users are no longer required to have a TBEST User account or have any Admin privileges on their machine Integrated support for SQL Server Express 2005 and SQL Server Enterprise 2005 (SQL Server 2008 will work, but you can t share the system to TBEST users with SQL Server 2005 Updated TBEST UI a good combination of old and new to limit the learning curve Many new features and fixes

16 Parcel Model Stop Market Evaluation Airport Stop

17 Parcel Model Stop Market Evaluation Multi-Use Stop

18 Large Market Systems Los Angeles Metro

19 Large Market Systems TriMet Portland, OR

20 TBEST Resources

21 Demonstration Topics 1. TBEST Tools and Features 2. TBEST Scenario Summary and Comparison Tool 3. TBEST GTFS (Google Transit) Route Import Tool

22 Contacts Steve Polzin Rodney Bunner