Forecasting Stop-Level Ridership for Florida s Transit Systems

Transcription

1 Forecasting Stop-Level Ridership for Florida s Transit Systems GIS-T 2006

2 Project Team Florida Department of Transportation Public Transit Office University of South Florida Center for Urban Transportation Research (CUTR) Gannett Fleming, Inc. GeoDecisions

3 Project Background Demand by Florida Transit Systems for a TDP modeling tool National Survey to determine need and existence of a software tool Transit Systems indicated they would use this tool No software existed specifically for this purpose Evaluation of existing Transit software Existing 4-step models focused on long range, multimodal modeling Cumbersome to implement and operate

4 T-BEST T-BEST (Transit Boardings Estimation and Simulation Tool) Comprehensive Transit Network Modeling, Management and Analysis Software with a focus on short-term transit planning. Software Objectives Stop-level ridership estimation Model sensitive to a variety of service adjustments User-friendly Cost-Effective Scalable Versatile Minimal Data Requirements

5 T-BEST Goals & Objectives A Tool to Support Transit Development & Service Planning Stop/Route Adjustments based on: Seasonal Patterns Land Use Changes Road Construction Service Changes Short-Term Ridership Forecasting Adjust Socio-Economic for expected growth Fare Structure changes New Routes, Stops New Technologies (BRT, Rail, Trolley, etc)

6 T-BEST Model Capabilities Estimates ridership at the individual stoplevel by time period Accounts for transit accessibility around the stop Accounts for network connectivity Accounts for time-of-day variations Accounts for route competition and complementarity

7 T-BEST Model Structure Direct Boarding Equation D s n = f ( s s s s s s s R B, O, O, O, O, X ), n 1,..., N n, 2 n 3n 4n 5n n = s refers to stop on a route in a given direction and n refers to time period D = direct boardings R = number of bus runs (arrivals) B = vector of buffer characteristics (population/employment) O i = accessibility measures = characteristics of buffer areas of accessible stops, H i, i = 2, 3, 4, 5 X = vector of other route and stop characteristics

8 T-BEST Model Structure Transfer Boarding Equation T s n = g R ( s s s s s s s O, O, O, O O, Y ), n 1,..., N n, 1 n 2n 3n 4n, 5n n = T = transfer boardings R = number of bus runs (arrivals) O 1 = accessibility measure = total boardings at all stops, H 1, during period n toward stop s Y = vector of other route and stop characteristics Methodology includes both direct and transfer boardings equations Accessibility vectors play major role

9 T-BEST Data Inputs T-BEST Data Requirements Transit Route Configuration & Stop Locations Transit Route Schedule Transit Route & Stop Names Transit System Characteristics Fare Structure Transfer Hubs Interlined Routes

10 T-BEST Data Inputs T-BEST Data Requirements Florida Source Data provided with the software: 2000 Census data with pre-formatted SF1 and SF3 variables 2000 InfoUSA Employment data grouped by Commercial, Industrial, and Service 2000 GDT Street Networks Other background GIS layers

11 T-BEST GIS Environment & Operational Features T-BEST provides a Comprehensive Short- Term Transit Model System Manage Multiple Transit Systems Scenario/Alternative Management Tools Complete Network Coding Environment Managed, Intelligent Model Runs Pre-packaged SE & Base Map Data (Florida) System Generated Reports & Maps Robust GIS-based QC, Analysis, and Network tools

12 T-BEST Features Transit System Management Create new Transit Systems Manage Existing Transit Systems Delete Systems All Files/Data managed internal in the software

13 T-BEST Features Scenario/Alternative Management Manage Alternatives Create Base Year Model Adjust Socio- Economic Variables to Future Year Incorporate Local Employment Data

14 T-BEST Features System Properties Fare Structure Transfer Hubs Interlined Routes Local Employment Data Socio-Economic growth applied to future year forecasts

15 T-BEST Features Scenario Editor Internally managed linearreferenced network Integrated editing, coding and analysis environment GIS-enabled network editing Time Period specific variables Stop-level socioeconomic updates

16 GIS Features T-BEST Features ArcGIS TOC, Symbol & Label Editor Add local data or images Edit Symbols and Labels Save custom Map setup with Scenario

17 T-BEST Features Model Equations Edit Direct and Transfer Boarding Coeffecients

18 Interactive Reporting

19 Automated Map Analysis Flexible Mapping Environment Model Application/Simulation

20 T-BEST Features Quality Control Measures Visualize Model Accessibility Calculations with impedance Locate Neighboring Stops Shortest Path Algorithm

21 Model Engine T-BEST Features Time Period Specific output for each stop Option to run for selected time-periods Optomized model calculations to run only necessary components

22 T-BEST Implementation Default Implementation Download & Install Software ( Default coefficients provided Calibration for Portland, Oregon in progress Calibration to Local Area Local Stop Level Ridership Data Develop Socio-Economic data Create T-BEST Transit Network Re-estimate and Re-calibrate

23 Future Enhancements Enhancements for T-BEST 3.0: Automated calibration and scaling procedures Statewide Transit Network Input complete by December 2006 New Model Coefficients Linear Referenced Routes/Stops Internally Managed Network Optional SQL Server or Oracle back-end Release in May 2006

24 Future Enhancements Enhancements for T-BEST 4.0: Develop sets of equations for different urban area sizes and trip purposes Spatial distribution of boardings to develop a stop-to-stop O-D matrix Greater sensitivity to route type, technology type, park-n-ride facilities, and special generators

25 T-BEST Benefits Standard Model Output for all state agencies Standard Data Model that can be adopted by the Agencies Transit Agencies do not have to work to develop TDP reporting methodologies, T- BEST is already approved by FDOT!

26 Conclusions T-BEST provides a powerful framework for modeling transit ridership at stop level Incorporates effects of accessibility and connectivity on ridership Accessibility and impedance computations very sophisticated, accurate, and automated in software More precisely accommodates effects of service span and frequency (temporal aspects)

27 T-BEST Questions?