Australian Housing Outlook By Robert Mellor, Managing Director BIS Shrapnel Pty Ltd October 2014

Transcription

1 Australian Housing Outlook By Robert Mellor, Managing Director BIS Shrapnel Pty Ltd October 2014

2 Recent Residential Property Market Trends Residential property demand has varied across purchaser segments in 2014 Strong demand from upgraders/downsizers, driven by low borrowing costs, high population growth and pent up demand pressures, particularly in NSW, QLD and WA. Low interest rates and the potential for strong capital growth has led to a surge in investor activity, particularly in NSW and VIC. Weak first home buyer demand, in part due to the removal or lowering of established dwelling grants in most states during 2012 and Overseas investors are contributing to strong demand for off-the-plan apartment sales, but minimal impact on established housing sector. 2 Australian Housing Outlook

3 Recent Residential Property Market Trends Median house price growth has improved across most capital cities over 2013/14 Robust demand for established houses across in both Sydney and Melbourne, evident by high auction clearance rates, has underpinned sizeable house price growth of over 15% in both capitals. Decade best affordability levels in Brisbane, Adelaide, Hobart and Canberra resulting in demand becoming buoyant in these capitals and driving an upturn in house price growth. Weakening in population growth, attributed to the tapering off in mining related investment, led to diminishing house price growth occurring in Perth and Darwin. We are not in a housing price boom like 2001 to late 2003, which was across all cities, this time it is Sydney and Melbourne focused and more modest price growth. 3 Australian Housing Outlook

4 Economic Indicators Per cent GDP Growth Employment Growth CPI Growth Unemployment Rate Forecast Year to June Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Australian National Accounts June 2014, Labour Force Australia August Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel. Note: Employment growth to August and unemployment rate as at August 4 Australian Housing Outlook

5 New Private Investment GDP Growth Forecasts (2011/12 Prices) Forecasts Year Ended June Dwellings Real Estate Transfer Exp Residential & Property Subtotal New Non Dwelling Construction New Engineering Construction New Machinery and Equipment New Business Investment Subtotal New Private Investment Total Source: Australian National Accounts June 2014, Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel. 5 Australian Housing Outlook

6 Interest Rates Percentage Cash Rate Standard Variable Rate Three year fixed rate Forecast As at June Source: Reserve Bank of Australia datasets at September Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel. 6 Australian Housing Outlook

7 Annual Growth in Home Loans, Percentage Change on Same Quarter the Previous Year, Australia 8 Per cent 6 First Home Buyers Non First Home Buyers Investors Jun 93 Dec 93 Jun 94 Dec 94 Jun 95 Dec 95 Jun 96 Dec 96 Jun 97 Dec 97 Jun 98 Dec 98 Jun 99 Dec 99 Jun 00 Dec 00 Jun 01 Dec 01 Jun 02 Dec 02 Jun 03 Dec 03 Jun 04 Dec 04 Jun 05 Dec 05 Jun 06 Dec 06 Jun 07 Dec 07 Jun 08 Dec 08 Jun 09 Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Investor activity based on value of lending. Owner occupioer data beased on number of loans. Quarter Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Housing Finance Australia July 2014, BIS Shrapnel 7 Australian Housing Outlook

8 Number of Home Loans to First Home Buyers, 12 Month Moving Average 70,000 60,000 50,000 NSW VIC QLD WA FHOG Boost Scheme 3,500 3,000 2,500 FHOG Boost Scheme Major policy changes 14,000 12,000 10,000 40,000 Major policy changes 2,000 8,000 30,000 1,500 6,000 20,000 10,000 0 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 1, TAS NT ACT SA (RHS) Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 4,000 2,000 0 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Housing Finance Australia July 2014, BIS Shrapnel 8 Australian Housing Outlook

9 Number of Home Loans to Upgraders & Downsizers, Moving Annual Totals 120, ,000 80,000 NSW VIC QLD WA 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 TAS NT ACT SA (RHS) 60,000 5,000 40,000 4,000 3,000 20,000 2,000 1, Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Housing Finance Australia July 2014, BIS Shrapnel 9 Australian Housing Outlook ,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14

10 Value of Loans to Investors by State, $billions, Moving Annual Totals NSW VIC QLD WA TAS NT ACT SA (RHS) Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Housing Finance Australia July 2014, BIS Shrapnel 10 Australian Housing Outlook Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14

11 Residential Vacancy Rates Per cent Balanced market = 3% Per cent Adelaide Hobart Canberra Darwin Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Balanced market = 3% Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June Australian Housing Outlook

12 Home Affordability Percentage Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Forecast As at June Note: Affordability is measured by mortgage repayments on 75% of the capital city median house price as a percentage of state household disposable income. Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian National Accounts June 2014, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Reserve Bank interest rate datasets at September 2014, BIS Shrapnel. Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel 12 Australian Housing Outlook

13 Net Overseas Migration - Australia Persons ('000s) Permanent and long term departures Net Overseas Migration Permanent and long term arrivals (RHS) Persons ('000s) Forecast Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic Statistics December Forecasts BIS Shrapnel 13 Australian Housing Outlook Jun-00 Dec-00 Jun-01 Dec-01 Jun-02 Dec-02 Jun-03 Dec-03 Jun-04 Dec-04 Jun-05 Dec-05 Jun-06 Dec-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 Jun-08 Dec-08 Jun-09 Dec-09 Jun-10 Dec-10 Jun-11 Dec-11 Jun-12 Dec-12 Jun-13 Dec-13 Jun-14 Dec-14 Jun-15 Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Year Ending

14 Net Overseas Migration - States Persons ('000s) NSW VIC QLD Forecast Persons ('000s) 2 SA TAS 17.5 NT ACT 15.0 Forecast 7 WA e e Year ended June Year ended June Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic Statistics December Forecasts BIS Shrapnel 14 Australian Housing Outlook

15 Net Interstate Migration Persons ('000s) NSW VIC QLD Forecast Persons ('000s) TAS NT ACT SA Forecast 2 WA e Year ended June e Year ended June Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Demographic Statistics December Forecasts BIS Shrapnel 15 Australian Housing Outlook

16 Underlying Demand & Dwelling Commencements 6 5 Dwellings ('000s) Ave Ann Underlying Demand 2014/15 to 2016/17 Dwelling Commencements 2013/ Dwellings ('000s) Ave Ann Underlying Demand 2014/15 to 2016/17 Dwelling Commencements 2013/ NSW VIC QLD WA SA TAS NT ACT Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Building Activity March 2014, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Australian Demographic Statistics December 2013, BIS Shrapnel. Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel 16 Australian Housing Outlook

17 Stock Deficiency Dwellings ('000s) Dwellings ('000s) NSW VIC QLD WA -1 SA TAS NT ACT Source: Australian Bureau of Statistics Building Activity March 2014, Census of Population and Housing 2011, Australian Demographic Statistics December 2013, BIS Shrapnel. Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel 17 Australian Housing Outlook

18 Residential Building & Property Cycle - Sydney 1,280 Forecast 640 Real house price Sydney ($'000) House price Sydney ($'000) Average value of home loan ($'000) 80 Commencements ('000) New South Wales (Quarterly, MAT) Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Building Activity March Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel Year ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS & REIA data

19 Residential Building & Property Cycle Regional NSW House price Wollongong ($'000) House price Newcastle ($'000) Forecast Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Building Activity March Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel Year ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS & REIA data

20 Residential Building & Property Cycle - Melbourne 1,280 Forecast 640 Real house price Melbourne ($'000) House price Melbourne ($'000) 160 Average value of home loan ($'000) 80 Commencements ('000) Victoria (Quarterly, MAT) Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Building Activity March Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel Year ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS & REIA data

21 Residential Building & Property Cycle - Brisbane 640 Real house price Brisbane ($'000) Forecast House price Brisbane ($'000) Average value of home loan ($'000) Commencements ('000) Queensland (Quarterly, MAT) Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Building Activity March Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel Year ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS & REIA data

22 Summary Outlook for Residential Property Market Economy continues rebalancing process through 2015 as mining investment tapers off, before strengthening again from 2016 as non-mining related business investment enters an upswing. Variable interest rates to remain at their current stimulatory level of 5.95% through 2014/15. Tightening monetary phase from the second half of calendar 2015, taking interest rates to a forecast peak of 6.75% in late calendar Upgraders/downsizers and investors to continue to be prominent in the purchaser market, as low interest rates and capital growth prospects buoy demand from these segments. First home buyer demand likely to remain weak as the impact of changes to incentives continue to work their way through. 22 Australian Housing Outlook

23 Summary Capital City Residential Markets The deficiency of residential dwellings is forecast to place upward pressure on median house values in Brisbane during the three years to 2016/17. Deficiency in Sydney expected to drive further house price rises through to 2015/16, before forecast interest rate rises in calendar 2016 constrain affordability and induce a correction over 2016/17. House price growth to be modest in Melbourne, Adelaide and Hobart, and marginal in Canberra due to each residential market containing an excess of residential stock. Declining underlying demand in Perth and Darwin - as mining related investment contracts and leads to slowing population growth - is forecast to result in a house price correction in Perth and weak house price growth in Darwin. 23 Australian Housing Outlook

24 Summary Forecast Median House Price Growth over the three years to 2016/17 Sydney 9% Melbourne 5% Brisbane 17% Adelaide 6% Perth -2% Hobart 5% Canberra 1% Darwin 2% Newcastle 17% Wollongong 16% Geelong 8% Bendigo 10% Ballarat 11% Gold Coast 15% Sunshine Coast 14% Townsville 10% Cairns 13% 24 Australian Housing Outlook

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26 Residential Building & Property Cycle - Perth 640 Forecast Real house price Perth ($'000) House price Perth ($'000) 160 Average value of home loan ($'000) Commencements ('000) Western Australia (Quarterly, MAT) Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June 2014, Australian Bureau of Statistics Consumer Price Index June 2014, Building Activity March Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel Year ended June Source: BIS Shrapnel, ABS & REIA data

27 Comparison between Actual Median House Prices & Three Year Forecasts - Australia Median House Price ($'000s) 70 Forecast Quarter Ending June Actual Source: Real Estate Institute of Australia Market Facts June Forecasts: BIS Shrapnel 27 Australian Housing Outlook

28 Thank you

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