Digital Advertising: Going from Broadcast to Personalized Advertising

Transcription

1 Digital dvrtising: Going from Broadcast to Prsonalizd dvrtising Jams G. Shanahan Indpndnt Consultant Church and Duncan Group Inc. EMIL: Jams_DOT_Shanahan_T_gmail.com, Machin Larning in Onlin dvrtising MLOD Workshop NIPS 2010, Whistlr Dcmbr 12, 2010 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 1 bstract Onlin advrtising is a form of promotion that uss th Intrnt and World Wid Wb for th xprssd purpos of dlivring markting mssags to attract customrs. Exampls of onlin advrtising includ txt ads that appar on sarch ngin rsults pags, bannr ads, in-txt ads, or Rich Mdia ads that appar on rgular wb pags, portals or applications. Sinc it incption ovr 15 yars ago, onlin advrtising has grown rapidly and currntly accounts for 13% of th ovrall advrtising spnd (which is approximatly $700 billion worldwid)). larg part of th mor rcnt succss in this fild has com from th following ky factors: Prsonalization: offlin advrtising (via broadcast TV, radio, nwspapr tc.) is largly a broadcast form of communication whr as digital advrtising is much mor targtd and thus nabls a prsonalizd, and possibly informativ, mssag to consumrs. Intractivity: intrnt advrtising is bcoming incrasingly intractiv with th advnt of nw forms of advrtising such as social advrtising; this is nabls advrtiss and consumrs to oprat in a mor convrsant mannr. Engagmnt: consumrs ar spnding mor tim onlin than with any othr form of mdia thrby nabling a broadr rach and dpr connction with consumrs. Explainability: advrtisrs ar bginning to undrstand thir consumrs bttr. This shift in focus in digital advrtising from location (i.., publishr wb pags) to prsonalization has brought with it numrous challngs som of which hav rcivd a lot of rsarch attntion in th DIK communitis (Data, Information and Knowldg communitis) ovr th past yars. In this talk I will rviw, along th dimnsions outlind abov, som of ths ky tchnical problms and challngs that aris whn advrting bcoms prsonal. This will b don within th contxt of th laborat (and vr-volving) cosystms of modrn day digital advrtising whr on has to captur, stor, and procss ptabyts of data within th constraints of a, somtims, squntial workflow. Th ultimat goal to is provid milliscond-basd dcision-making at ach stp of this workflow that nabls customizabl and ngaging consumr xprincs. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 2 1

2 Brif Bio Jams G. Shanahan 20 yars in th fild I and information managmnt Principal and Foundr, Boutiqu Data Consultancy Clints includ: Digg, T&Ti, ncstry, SarchM, SkyGrid, MyOffrPal Lcturr, Univrsity of California Santa Cruz (UCSC) Chif Scintist, Turn Inc. ( CPX ad ntwork DSP) Principal Scintist, Clairvoyanc Corp (CMU spinoff; sistr lab to JRC) Rsarch Scintist, Xrox Rsarch Rsarch Enginr, Mitsubishi Group PhD in machin larning (1998), Univrsity of Bristol, UK; B.Sc. Comp. Scinc (1989), Uni. of Limrick, Irland Now: Machin Larning Consultant (San Francisco) IF (you hav larg data problms and nd a consultant) THEN {mail m at Jams.Shanahan_T_gmail,com} Whr problms {wb sarch, onlin advrtising, machin larning, ranking, usr modling, optimization, social ntworks} NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 3 Disclaimr Th uthor rtains all rights, including copyrights and distribution rights. No publication or furthr distribution in full or in part prmittd without xplicit writtn prmission from th author Living vicariously! NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 4 2

3 Outlin Background: digital advrtising, th 0.2% opportunity (of GDP) 3 rd Gnration D (Prsonalization) Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 5 What marktrs want? Dlivr markting mssags and attract customrs and sll products/srvics (long trm vs. short trm) Goal Introduc:Rach ctivity Mdia Planning Influnc:Brand Clos Ntwork Effct d Effctivnss (CTR, sit visits) Markting Effctivnss (Transactions, CR, Crdit ssignmnt) Rfrrals/dvocacy NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 6 3

4 It annoys but it yt it works.. Onlin advrtising is a form of advrtising utilizing th Intrnt and World Wid Wb in ordr to dlivr markting mssags and attract customrs [wikipdia.com] dvrtising annoys popl! dvrtising works! "Half th mony I spnd on advrtising is wastd; th troubl is, I don't know which half." - John Wanamakr, fathr of modrn advrtising. [Crdit assignmnt] "I do not rgard advrtising as ntrtainmnt or an art form, but as a mdium of information..., Ogilvy on dvrtising by David Ogilvy Goals of Onlin advrtising +P P+C Dlivr/push an advrtisr s mssag with quantifiabl masurs of consumr intrst Gnrat ROI for th advrtisr and rvnu for th publishr Enabl ads as a mdium of information (tru in th cas of sarch)! NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 7 dvrtising maks up ~2% of US GDP Dspit its problms (lack of crdit assignmnt tc.) US GDP = $14.1 Trillion (Global $56 Trillion, 56x10 12 ) US dvrtising Spnd ~$275 Billion across all mdia (2% of GDP sinc th arly 1900s) ~$23 Billion in Digital dvrtising (8.4% of ovrall spnd) In 2008, Worldwid onlin advrtising was $65B I.., about 10% of all ad spnding across all mdia [IDC, 2008] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 8 4

5 Why onlin?: ROI vrsus CPM CPM ROI pr $1 Spnt Outdoor $1-5 Cabl TV $5-8 $6.81 Radio $8 $8.60 Onlin $19.83 Display $5-30 $5-$30 $19.78 Contxtual $1-$5 Sarch $1 - $200 $21.84 Social $0.2-$5 $12.57 Mobil $0.2-$6 $7.50 $44.93 Ntwork/Local TV $20 $6.81 Magazin $10-30 $10.11 Nwspapr $30-35 $12.77 Dirct Mail $250 $7.34-$15.28 TV = 7:1 ROI Onlin = 20:1 ROI [ROI numbrs basd on DM Powr of dirct markting 2010 Edition] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 9 Big lag in ad dollars spnd onlin Typically ad dollars hav followd mdia consumption Dspit popl spnding mor tim on th intrnt, thr is a $40 billion dficit (in US) $65B $23B TV = 7:1 ROI Onlin = 20:1 ROI [JP Morgan, 2010] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 10 5

6 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 11 Volum 16 tims Sarch 4Trillion Imprssion Display CPMs: $3-$5 (US) Sarch RPS: $70 (US) Sarch RPM: $10-15 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 12 6

7 Big qustions $40 Billion onlin gap $80 billion display gap NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 13 Why th big lag in ad dollars spnd onlin? dvrtisrs and agncis ar old fashiond Don t us mathmatically sophisticatd systms; human xprts dvrtisrs ar broadcast orintd (TV, Nwspapr, Radio tc) Hug cultur chang Ral-tim vrsus wkly/monthly Thy spak th languag of audincs and panls (not data mining, machin larning); social scintists ccountability: Intrnt is still rlativly nw and largly unknown part from sponsord sarch (2% of onlin activity) othr mdia typs ar largly not accountabl and undrxploitd Poor targting Guarantd markts at spot markt prics Hug opportunity if history is anything to go by and. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 14 7

8 Outlin Background: digital advrtising, th 0.2% opportunity (of GDP) 3 rd Gnration D (Prsonalization) Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 15 From Mad Mn To Wall Strt and byond! 2007 Data Prsonalization dvrtisrs still in broadcast mod 1 st Gnration 2 nd Gnration 3 rd Gnration NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 16 8

9 udinc Participation NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 17 B C D NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 18 9

10 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 19 udinc Participation NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 20 10

11 NYC s Sxist Billboard Dosn t Car For Dumbphons NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 21 udinc Participation NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 22 11

12 NYC s Sxist Billboard Dosn t Car For Dumbphons NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 23 From Mad Mn To Wall Strt and byond! 2007 Data Prsonalization dvrtisrs still in broadcast mod 1 st Gnration 2 nd Gnration 3 rd Gnration NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 24 12

13 dvrtising: a supply-dmand marktplac DEMND dvrtisr wishs to rach consumrs ds SUPPLY d Slots for sal Consumrs d v r t i s r Formal Rlationship P u b l i s h r NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 25 dvrtising gncy: crats & traffics ads DEMND dvrtisr wishs to rach consumrs ds SUPPLY d Slots for sal Consumrs d v r t i s r d g n c y P u b l i s h r NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 26 13

14 dvrtising gncy: crats & traffics ads DEMND dvrtisr wishs to rach consumrs SUPPLY ds d v r t i s r d g n c y Sponsord Sarch (208Billion, US, 2009) Non Sarch 4 Trillion, US, 09 Contxtual Display Classifid Social Mobil P u b l i s h r Consumrs NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 27 2 nd Gnration CPC, CP Quant drivn and quant support Supply can b fragmntd d Ntworks Outsid of sarch supply can b fragmntd Publishrs mayb small and not hav a sals tam NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 28 14

15 15 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 29 dvrtising Ntwork: ggrgats Publishrs d v r t i s r DEMND d g n c y Consumrs SUPPLY P u b 1 P u b 2 P u b N P u b... d N t w o r k Slf-srv NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 30 Onlin dvrtising is a Frnmic Ntwork Play P P P P Ex P P P N P P P N P P P N KEY dvrtisr P Publishr N d Ntwork Ex Exchang

16 2 nd Gnration [Kawaja, 2010] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 31 3 rd Gnration Nw mor fficint markt placs d Exchangs Data xchangs udinc-basd targting Vry complx piplin Yild mgt and Dmand sid platforms NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 32 16

17 3 rd Gnration [Kawaja, 2010] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 33 d Exchangs: a nw SD Marktplac Th ad xchang is a ral tim marktplac with an auction-basd systm whr th participants - advrtisrs and publishrs transact on a common platform to purchas and sll onlin graphical advrtising. Currntly, publishrs sll rmnant invntory on th xchang for advrtisrs to purchas through bidding on a usr-frindly intrfac. d Exchangs do not compt with ad ntworks targting tchnologis, or publishrs, but rathr srv as a mor fficint way for th xchang of invntory within ths groups Googls acquird DoublClick, Yahoo acq RightMdia, tc.. $11 in M& in 2007 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 34 17

18 18 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 35 d Exchang: auctionr-cntric marktplac d v r t i s r DEMND d g n c y Consumrs SUPPLY P u b 1 P u b 2 P u b N P u b... d N t Y i l d m g t. d N t d E c h a n g NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 36 Dmand-Sid Platform: trading dsk for dv. d v r t i s r DEMND d g n c y Consumrs SUPPLY P u b 1 P u b 2 P u b N P u b... d N t Y i l d m g t. d N t d E c h a n g D S P

19 19 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 37 Dmand sid platforms [E.g., Turn, DataXu] Spak th languag of markting folk NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 38 Dmand Sid, Supply sid platforms d v r t i s r DEMND d g n c y Consumrs SUPPLY P u b 1 P u b 2 P u b N P u b... d N t Y i l d m g t S S P d N t d E c h a n g D S P

20 Ky Faturs of DSP dvancd and accurat audinc targting capabilitis Easy-to-us invntory control Bidding dashboards bility to st frquncy caps on th ads bing srvd raching th "right consumr" too many tims can lad to a significant dclin in intrst NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 39 Opn rsarch ras Forcasting Targting Mchanism dsign Raltim bidding [Slctiv call out and ral tim bidding, Chakraborty t al., 2010] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 40 20

21 Look-a-lik modling: xplainabl Knowldg Rul-basd targting dvrtisr/gncy spcifis knowldg of targt audinc (livs in mtropolitan ara, 25-44, incom, rads businss sctions) Data drivn from consumrs who bought alrady Obsrv individuals who just transactd; find mor who look-lik ths Positiv and ngativ xampls ctiv larning: Instad of assuming that all of th training xampls ar givn at th start, activ larning algorithms intractivly collct nw xampls, typically by making quris to a human usr. Oftn, th quris ar basd on unlabld data, which is a scnario that combins smi-suprvisd larning with activ larning. Sttls, Burr (2009), "ctiv Larning Litratur Survy", TR Univrsity of Wisconsin Madison, Forcasting (s CIKM 2010 paprs and postrs) How many of uniqus? What-if I incras by bid pric? NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 41 Look-a-lik modling: Challngs Modling usr basd on intraction pattrns Data.g., from QuantCast Millions of partnr sits 10 Billion wblog rcords (ad tag firing vnts from publishr); 250 Billion pr month 1 Billion usrs globally 15 trabyts pr day of nw data dvrtisrs nd to dfin, rfin thir modls of a typical consumr daily, hourly, scondly Forcasting (CIKM 2010) Map-Rduc for offlin, ral-tim modling NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 42 21

22 Outlin Background: digital advrtising, th 0.2% opportunity (of GDP) 3 rd Gnration D (Prsonalization) Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 43 dvnt of WWW: mdia bcam prsonal dvnt of th World Wid Wb mdia consumption starts to bcom mor prsonalizd popl could pull th mdia thy wantd to rad/watch/listn Mdia pushd also nd th Intrnt bannr ad was a markting rvolution. W could not only masur th siz of th audinc that saw our ads but w had a ral-tim (or nar ral-tim) fdback mchanism in th click-through rat WSJ.com, for xampl, chargs advrtisrs as much as $64.60 to show a bannr ad to 1,000 viwrs. $5 CPM [ Pricing Rvolution Looms in Onlin dvrtising, Businss Wk, 4/2009] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 44 22

23 Th dradd bannr is a big mony winnr Bannr WSJ.com, for xampl, chargs advrtisrs as much as $64.60 to show a bannr ad to 1,000 viwrs. $5 CPM [ Pricing Rvolution Looms in Onlin dvrtising, Businss Wk, 4/2009] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 45 But bannr ads ar mass markting Masur th siz of th audinc and CTRs Howvr, various studis showd bannr blindnss E.g., comscor/fox study 84 prcnt of Wb usrs nvr click on bannrs. 12 prcnt not vry activ 4% prcnt of Wb usrs that click on bannr ads, produc 67 prcnt of all clicks. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 46 23

24 Bhavioral Targting: Modling Th Usr Targt ads basd on usr s browsing bhavior Commonly usd by: Wbsit ownrs (.g., -commrc wbsits) d ntworks Ky playrs includ: E-commrc wbsits such as mazon Blu Lithium (acq by Yahoo!, $300M), Tacoda (acq by OL, $275M), Burst, Phorm and Rvnu Scinc, Turn.com, and othrs [ For mor background s: ] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 47 Prsonalization via BT Intuition: th usrs who shar similar Wb browsing bhaviors will hav similar prfrnc ovr ads Slling udincs (and not sits) Traditionally did this basd on panls (usr survys or using Comscor/NtRatings); vry broad and not vry accurat Through a combination of cookis and log analysis BT nabls vry spcific sgmntation Domains of pplication Sponsord sarch Non-Sponsord sarch (.g., contxtual, display) NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 48 24

25 Bhavioral Targting: Main Typs Wbsit/wb pag visitd E.g., Usrs who frqunt Orbitz.com and Expdia.com or th travl sction of USToday.com would bcom part of th Travl Shopprs sgmnt. Thn, ths usrs ar rtargtd whn thy ar found on othr mor gnral contnt typ sits Kyword profil using rcnt sarchs or contnt that was rad Rtargt past visitors to your wbsit (surrogat modling) Th goal is to us BT to lt you snd th appropriat mssag to ach usr basd on whr thy ar in your product sals cycl. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 49 BT Tchnology Sgmnting usrs Clustring, data mining, classification Rul-basd systm, hybrid systms Sgmnting publishr ral stat into to catgoris Collaborativ filtring Popl who bought this also bought X Yhuda Korn, Factorization mts th nighborhood: a multifactd collaborativ filtring modl. KDD Rmmbr NtFlix problm?? NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 50 25

26 Organic vrsus Sponsord Clicks Usr Qury Organic Clicks Sponsord Clicks [How much th Bhavioral Targting can Hlp Onlin dvrtising? Yan, t al., WWW 2009] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 51 Jun Rprsnt usr bhavior: trms or click d URLs Rprsnt th usrs by thir bhaviors using BT stratgis Quris: lading to a Usr by Qury Trm (qury unigram) matrix Us all usr quris (in unigram fashion) Stm; rmov stopwords and words with a frquncy Lss than or Eq 1 Usr Trm Q Trm 1 Trm 2. Trm l Usr 1 TF_IDF 11. Usr 2. Usr n TD_IDF nl Clickd pag: rprsnt usr in trms of URLs of pags sh clickd Usr Trm URL 1 URL 2. URL l Usr 1 U 11. whr Usr 2 U ij = (Log(#Usr i click URL j )+1) IDF(URL). Usr NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital n U advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan nl 52 26

27 Clustr usrs basd on qury unigrams Usr Trm Q Trm 1 Trm 2. Trm l Usr 1 TF_IDF 11. Usr 2. Clustr1. Clustr20 Usr n TD_IDF nl NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 53 dd ad clicks to matrix masur CTRs ds Usr Trm Q Trm 1 Trm 2. d1. d m Usr 1 Usr 2 TF_IDF 11. ClickCnt ClickCnt C1. No Click No click No click. No click Usr n C20 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 54 27

28 dd ad clicks to matrix: compar CTRs ds Usr Trm Usr 1 Usr 2 Q Trm 1 TF_IDF 11. Trm 2. d1. d m. ClickCnt CTR ClickCnt D1,c1 No Click No click C1 No click Usr n. No click CTR D1,c20 C20 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 55 Clustr organic bhaviors using K-mans Rprsnt th usrs by thir organic bhaviors Quris trms Clickd URLs Clustr usrs basd on organic bhaviour using k-mans or CLUTO Evaluat clustrs using clicks on sponsord ads Is thr a tndncy to group all clicks into on (or small numbr of organic clustrs? Evaluat how much BT can hlp onlin advrtising by dlivring ads to good usr sgmnts. Mtrics Intr and intra clustr, CTR, F-masur, ds Click ntropy NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 56 28

29 Short/long trm ND Qury/Pag 7 Days LP: using Long trm usr bhavior all through th svn Pag modl days and rprsnting th usr bhavior by Pag-viws; Qury modl LQ: using Long trm usr bhavior all through th svn days and rprsnting th usr bhavior by Qury trms; 1 Day Pag modl SP: using Short trm usr bhavior (1 day) and rprsnting usr bhavior by Pag-viws; Qury modl SQ: using Short trm usr bhavior (1 day) and rprsnting usr bhavior by Qury trms. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 57 BT Datast Focusd on English quris 6,426,633 uniqu usrs 17,901 ads Originally 335,170 uniqu ads within th svn days. Rmov anyon who has mor than 100 clicks a day But filtr out all th ads that hav lss than 30 clicks within ths svn days, NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 58 29

30 Log Fil Format NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 59 Day-basd qury modl works bst 7Days of URLs 7Days of quris 1Days of URLs 1Days of quris NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 60 30

31 Papr Conclusions Rprsnting short trm bhaviors (1 day) is bttr than 7 days Qury words, URLS modls ar similar; usr s intrst tnd to divrg ovr long priods so th shortr th priod th bttr Rsults suffr from som biass Post-hoc analysis; thrfor targting was not part of study Rsults masurd using 7 days of historical logs (not an B tst) Quris hav a strong corrlation to th clickd ads but URLs hav lss of a corrlation (ds ar targtd by kywords so usrs clustrd using clickd ads and sarch trms would yild similar clustrs) Having said that, vry strong signal: 670% CTR improvmnt NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 61 BT Scnario How to accomplish BT? Givn positiv xampls (qury trms, clickd rsults, ignord rsults) Much rsarch Filtring [TREC] daptiv Filtr [TREC] Intractiv tracks Can us adaptiv approachs Rocchio: wight trms (using bas + positiv xs + ngativ xs) ctiv Larning (bas machin larning algorithm with xplor+xploit capabilits) Bandit problm; Baysian updating Offlin catgorization (and thn constrain rsults st);.g., SVMs WWW, SIGIR, CIKM, TREC, EC tc. 100 millisconds NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 62 31

32 BT at Googl dsns + dwords d ntwork # Googl sgmnts usrs along 20 catgoris and narly 600 subcatgoris. ssign usrs basd on usrs browsr bhavior It dos not plan to associat th cooki of usrs with sarch data or with information from othr Googl srvics, lik Gmail. Qury history to targt ads on Googl SERPs $ Whn dtrmining which ads to show on a Googl sarch rsult pag, th dwords systm valuats som of th usr's prvious quris during thir sarch sssion as wll as th currnt sarch qury. If th systm dtcts a rlationship, it will show ads rlatd to ths othr quris, too. # rnt/11googl.html March 11, 2009 NyTims.com $ NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 63 Googl: diting my BT intrsts Googl bgan showing ads on Wdnsday to popl basd on thir prvious onlin activitis in a form of advrtising known as bhavioral targting Intrst-basd advrtising Googl is a participating mmbr of th Ntwork dvrtising Initiativ. You can opt out of this cooki as wll as othr ntwork advrtising cookis from th Ntwork dvrtising Initiativ opt-out pag. nt/11googl.html March 11, 2009 NyTims.com NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 64 32

33 Intrst Catgoris NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 65 Prsonalizd Sponsord Sarch via BT Googl uss qury history to targt ads on Googl SERPs Whn dtrmining which ads to show on a Googl sarch rsult pag, th dwords systm valuats som of th usr's prvious quris during thir sarch sssion as wll as th currnt sarch qury. If th systm dtcts a rlationship, it will show ads rlatd to ths othr quris, too. This fatur is an nhancmnt of broad match. It works by gnrating similar trms for ach sarch qury basd on th contnt of th currnt qury and, if dmd rlvant, th prvious quris in a usr's sarch sssion. Your ad will potntially show if on of your broad-matchd kywords matchs any of ths similar trms. Win-win; quality scor not affctd; Googl accpts th cost risk NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 66 33

34 Gaining rspct BT had a bad nam Googl bgan showing ads on 3/11/2009 to popl basd on thir prvious onlin activitis in a form of advrtising known as bhavioral targting Intrst-basd advrtising Privacy Protction Edit BT profils giv usrs th ability to s and dit th information that it has compild about thir intrsts for th purposs of bhavioral targting Opt-out asily Googl and many othrs is a participating mmbr of th Ntwork dvrtising Initiativ. Rmov cookis March 11, 2009 NyTims.com NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 67 Th Ntwork dvrtising Initiativ (NI) consortium of approximatly 30 companis that us BT tchnology. Opt-out asily!! NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 68 34

35 BT Works Bhavioral targting tris to modl usr nds and intnts basd on past Wb-surfing bhavior Sponsord sarch, display, and contxtual advrtising dvrtisr rduc CPMs Rduc ad costs from $60 to $3 CPM, a 95% savings Publishr can gnrat mor and highr RPMs Find unsold sgmnts of radrs and sll thm to advrtisrs that prviously couldn't accss thm. Us data on past radr "click strams" from othr Wb sits to hlp advrtisrs rach th consumrs who ar most intrstd in thir products. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 69 Bhavioral Targting is growing NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 70 35

36 Bhavioural Targting Summary BT works for both sponsord sarch and nonsponsord sarch CTRs >> E.g., 11% to 840% highr than avrag Holds hug promis to montiz longtail of mostly rmnant invntory (such as Wb2.0) $8 Billion US Display ad markt Ntwork ffct will incras th valu of this invntory (rach mor popl) Privacy concrns nd to b addrssd bfor consumrs, advrtisrs and publishrs mbrac this dirction in a big way NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 71 Prsonalizd ds Exampl Th RHS ad was customizd and chosn from thousands of diffrnt crativ lmnts, automatically and in ral-tim, by machinlarning algorithms dvlopd by Tracnt, a San Mato, California startup aying-bst-display-ad-with.html NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 72 36

37 Outlin Background: digital advrtising, th 0.2% opportunity (of GDP) 3 rd Gnration D (Prsonalization) Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 73 Social dvrtising Introducd in th contxt of community-orintd wbsits such as Facbook and Digg. nd mor rcntly Twittr Lvrags historically "offlin" dynamics such as pr-prssur, rcommndations, and othr forms of social influnc In th cas of Digg, Digg or Bury th ad usrs dtrmin what ads appar on th wbsit nws strams by voting up or "burying" ads, much th way thy can digg or "bury" organic nws itms rcntly thy hav rolld this out for graphic ads also This is nabls advrtiss and consumrs to oprat in a mor convrsant mannr. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 74 37

38 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 75 [ NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 76 38

39 Intractiv Social Graphic ds NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 77 Social ds Facbook NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 78 39

40 d Rach within top Social Ntworks Twittr ads ar limitd to sarch strams NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 79 Social dvrtising Summary Social advrtising has th potntial to b mor convrsant with th consumr thrby incras th advrtisrs trust in display-advrtising in particular Still vry nw but with hug rach Social ads succssfully dployd much mor popular than pur display ads 500 million usrs on Facbook, $1 Billion in rvnu $2 pr usr rvnu NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 80 40

41 Outlin Background: digital advrtising Prsonalization thru: Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: th untthrd consumr Smartr and mor portabl dvics (3G, 4G, broadband) Social ntworking is bcoming mor prvasiv Location basd srvics (LBS), mobil vido and apps, augmnting wbsits with social capabilitis Transformativ advrtising ugmntd rality and quick rspons (QR) cods Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 81 Smartphons 50% shar in mid2011 US only NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 82 41

42 Mobil d Click/Tap to land in P Stor Mobil d [ CapitalRadio_dMobCasStudy.pdf ] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 83 Mobil d Click to land in P Stor Mobil d NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 84 42

43 Pandora NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 85 pp: UrbanSpoon NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 86 43

44 Mobil Wb NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 87 Larg Format Bnfit Enhancd mobil apps Incrasd contnt display opportunitis Vido optimization Intractiv graphics Growth Total mdia tablts dvic markt 15MM units in 2010 growing 28MM in 2011 (BI, 2010; Barclays Capital, 2010) 46MM units in 2014 (IDC, May 10, 2010) ppl xpctd to sll ~20MM ipads in 2011 (Barclays Capital, July 2010) Tablt PCs NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 88 44

45 Mobil Us & Vido NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 89 Tipping Points Th tru turning point for th industry was th introduction of th smartphon, hightnd by ppl s iphon launch in mid Taring down th carrir wall Bttr connctivity 3G, 4G mobil phons ld to bttr connction spds Wi-Fi connctivity and th ris of mobil Intrnt browsing. Richr Contnt pps, For mobil wb pags, Vido, TV, Gams In dvloping markts, mobil is th primary gatway to th Intrnt not PC! NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 90 45

46 Mobil Montization ll th intrnt montization modls ar applicabl to mobil. Nw montization modls that lvrag uniqu mobil faturs.g. pay pr call. CPM Sarch Contxtual Display CPC x x x CP x x x PPC x x x x NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 91 Rquirs: Slct Bst ds to Display ds to slct from (i.., ads with budgt rmaining) bility to dtrmin bst ad to show (s blow); Srv ad or not (social rsponsibility) Slcting Bst d(s) Estimat th CTR of ach ad using availabl faturs. numbr of tchniqus for stimating CTR: Rgularizd Rgrssion modls, Multi-armd bandit modls Non paramtric: collaborativ filtring, narst nighbor mthods. Faturs for stimating CTR: Location basd faturs, Social ntwork faturs Sit charactristics d Charactristics Usr Charactristics, usr bhavior NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 92 46

47 Mobil d Spnd will tripl by 2012 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 93 Outlin Background: digital advrtising Prsonalization thru: Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Smartr and mor portabl dvics (3G, 4G, broadband) Social ntworking is bcoming mor prvasiv Location basd srvics (LBS), mobil vido and apps, augmnting wbsits with social capabilitis Transformativ advrtising ugmntd rality and quick rspons (QR) cods Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 94 47

48 Mobil, smart dvics nabl social Th latst wav of post-iphon smart phons hav put mobil social ntworking, sarch, location srvics and vn gaming and vido into th fast lans of usr adoption. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 95 [Transformativ Mdia: Digital, Mobil & ugmntd Rality, Jim Buckly & Frd Stub, DM 2010] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 96 48

49 Social Ntwork d Spnd Cools Off NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 97 Outlin Background: digital advrtising Prsonalization thru: Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Smartr and mor portabl dvics (3G, 4G, broadband) Social ntworking is bcoming mor prvasiv Location basd srvics (LBS), mobil vido and apps, augmnting wbsits with social capabilitis Transformativ advrtising ugmntd rality and quick rspons (QR) cods Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 98 49

50 Top Tir Location Basd Social Ntworks NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 99 Layring on Social: Googl Connct Googl Frind Connct instantly awakns and strngthns th community that visits your sit by nriching it with social faturs. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

51 dd social gadgts to your wbsit Choos from a rang of social gadgts that lt usrs post commnts, post links, rat, rviw, and mor. Th gadgt gallry includs gadgts cratd by Googl and OpnSocial dvloprs. Join Community mmbrs Join Community Poll Filtrd contnt NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 101 Simply add HTML cod to wbpag NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

52 Hot ras: Modl ntwork bhavior Nd nw tools to modl information (product) diffusion in social ntworks (mail, Facbook, MySpac, Digg tc.) Th vry small world of th wll-connctd. Shi, Bonnr, damic, Gilbrt, CM Hyprtxt, Influnc modls Invstigat th dirct pr influnc on information diffusion among social ntworks. Explor diffrnt faturs, both associatd with th usrs or th information, corrlat with information diffusion. [Usr grouping bhavior in onlin forums. Shi, Zhu, Cai, Zhang, KDD 09.] [Information diffusion in computr scinc citation ntworks, Shi, Tsng, damic, ICWSM, 2009] Othr Diffusion modls Infrring ntworks of diffusion and influnc Jur Lskovc, M. Gomz- Rodriguz and. Kraus. KDD NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan Vrtx-Importanc Graph Synopsis (VIGS) [Th vry small world of th wll-connctd. Shi, Bonnr, damic, Gilbrt, CM Hyprtxt, 2008] Crat sub-graphs of important vrtics to study both ky vrtics and th ntir graph Which vrtics ar important? Popl with most frinds on facbook? Th most quotd blogs? Standard, wll-stablishd masurs: Dgr, Btwnnss, Closnss, PagRank NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

53 105 VIGS in ral ntworks: graph dnsity [Th vry small world of th wll-connctd. Shi, Bonnr, damic, Gilbrt, CM Hyprtxt, 2008] Important vrtics in ral ntworks ar dnsly connctd, no mattr which importanc masur w us. (a) BuddyZoo (b) TREC (c) Wb NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 105 Proprtis of VIGS in ral ntworks 17 Compar th proprtis of important vrtics in subgraphs and in th original graphs Erdos-Rnyi BoddyZoo TREC Wb Dnsity Lss dns Dnsr Dnsr Dnsr Connctivity vrag Shortst Path Rank of Importanc Disconnctd whn th numbr of vrtics is small Much longr lmost connctd lmost th sam lways connctd lmost th sam lways connctd lmost th sam Vry diffrnt Similar Similar Similar Gt good ida of rlationships btwn important vrtics using only th subgraphs. 106 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

54 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 107 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

55 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 109 Diffusion in partially obsrvabl ntworks In many applications, th undrlying ntwork ovr which th diffusions and propagations sprad is actually unobsrvd. Dvlop a mthod for tracing paths of diffusion and influnc through ntworks and infrring th ntworks ovr which contagions propagat. Givn th tims whn nods adopt pics of information or bcom infctd, idntify th optimal ntwork that bst xplains th obsrvd infction tims. This optimization problm is NP-hard to solv xactlly dvlop an fficint approximation algorithm that scals to larg datasts and in practic givs provably nar-optimal prformanc. [Infrring ntworks of diffusion and influnc Jur Lskovc, M. Gomz-Rodriguz and. Kraus. KDD ] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

56 Graph lgs ar Computational Expnsiv MyLocal Computr Ky d1 d2 d3 Upload Valu th quick brown fox th fox at th mous how now brown cow > hadoop dfs -put f1.txt xampldir ssum block siz is 20 Charactrs Fil Nam nod Hadoop Clustr Map nods Rduc nods Datanods NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 111 Outlin Background: digital advrtising Prsonalization thru: Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Smartr and mor portabl dvics (3G, 4G, broadband) Social ntworking is bcoming mor prvasiv Location basd srvics (LBS), mobil vido and apps, augmnting wbsits with social capabilitis Transformativ advrtising ugmntd rality and quick rspons (QR) cods Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

57 NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 113 Quick Rspons Cods (QR) NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

58 Download th Ray-Ban Virtual Mirror, and virtually try on th latst Ray-Ban styls. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 115 ugmntd rality (R) R is a layring tchnology; usd to ovrlay taggd imags, vido fils, applications and data to display information ovr vido, imag, and camra displays on PC s, mobil phons and TV/monitors E.g., NFL gam broadcasts us th yllow lctronic lin to indicat whr th first down is locatd R can us GPS and location-basd targting, as wll as imag and facial rcognition Diffrnt formats commonly usd? Print-Basd Lvrags print to driv consumr and brand ngagmnt 3-D Imag & Vido Us Smartphon Layring Utilizs smartphon camra to layr information ovr displays Go-location contnt NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

59 R +QR: Virtual Drssing Room NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 117 Engagmnt Smartr and mor portabl dvics (3G, 4G, broadband) Social ntworking is bcoming mor prvasiv location basd srvics (LBS), mobil vido and apps, augmnting wbsits with social capabilitis Transformativ advrtising augmntd rality and quick rspons (QR) cods How many mor rwrits Basic wbpags Wb2.0 Mobil IPTV NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

60 Outlin Background: digital advrtising Prsonalization thru: Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Othr issus Crdit assignmnt Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 119 Crdit ssignmnt is a nw ara Giving crdit whr crdit is du (offlin and onlin) Marktrs know that customrs rarly travl along a purchas path in a nat, tidy, linar fashion. Typically, thy can do up to fiv sarchs bfor gtting clos to a pag to convrt, and in th middl of thos sarchs, can look at an -mail blast promotion, go to a stor and look at product in prson, and prhaps visit influntial social mdia sits along th way. Which of ths activitis had a tru ffct on a purchas and th rlativ influnc of ach. In th past, analytics rlid on a last click modl, assigning 100% of th purchasing influnc to th last click a consumr mad bfor purchasing. NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

61 Crdit ssignmnt: Th Customr Buying Cycl [Figur from Goodyar & ClarSaling Study, DM 2010 San Francisco] NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 121 Outlin Background: digital advrtising, th 0.2% opportunity (of GDP) 3 rd Gnration D (Prsonalization) Explainability: trading dsks for th advrtisr Bhavioral targting Intractivity: thru social ads Engagmnt: transformativ ad formats Summary NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

62 Ky Enablrs Offlin advrtising is largly broadcast (via broadcast TV, radio, nwspapr tc.) is largly a broadcast form of communication whr as digital advrtising is much mor targtd and thus nabls a prsonalizd, and possibly informativ, mssag to consumrs. lways connctd has graduatd from dsktop to handhld Bridging offlin with onlin Smartphons (>50% will hav on nxt yar), Tablt Lif-logging capabilitis IP-basd TV Storag and Data rquirmnts Stor, Procss data lgorithms mak all this happn NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 123 lways connctd Liflogging NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

63 Rsarch Opportunitis Data sparsity Fatur nginring Optimization thory and objctivs Mtrics Data storag and throughput Usr modling Crdit assignmnt Economic modling, gam thory, mchansm dsign NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 125 From Mad Mn To Wall Strt and byond! 2007 Data Prsonalization dvrtisrs still in broadcast mod 1 st Gnration 2 nd Gnration 3 rd Gnration NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

64 Excutiv Summary: Digital dvrtising 3 rd Gnration Onlin advrtising: Location prsonalization dvrtisrs dlivr a mssag to consumrs via publishrs $23.4 billion in US (2008), $65B worldwid (10% of ovrall ad spnd) Onlin advrtising was location, location and location ($11B M&, 2007) But it is mor about prsonalization, prsonalization, prsonalization Bhavioral Targting, Engaging ds, R, Trading Bnchs.and data, faturs, objctivs, optimization, and mrgnt bhaviors Machin larning is a ky drivr in th succss of onlin advrtising s a disciplin Businss informatics/nginring/analytics Bottom up: Economics, IR, ML, OR, Gam Thory, Stats, Social Scincs Top-down: crat (undr)grad programs UC Santa Cruz (ISM209, ISM250, ISM251), Stanford Univrsity NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 127 ICWSM (Social Mdia) 2011 in Barclona Co-locatd with IJCI IMPORTNT DTES: Sponsorship immdiatly!! Tutorial proposals du: Fb 18, 2011 Workshop proposals du: Fb 18, 2011 Paprs du: Jan 31, Fb 6, 2010 Confrnc July NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan

65 Thanks EMIL: Jams_DOT_Shanahan_T_gmail_DOT_com NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan 129 Digital advrtising is a frnmy cultur Digital advrtising is frnmic (playrs ar simultanously a partnr and a comptitor). NIPS MLOD, 2010 Whistlr. Digital advrtising: broadcast to prsonalizd advrtising 2010 Jams G. Shanahan