Assoc. Prof. Mustafa Sinan GÖNÜL PhD, MBA

Transcription

1 Assoc. Prof. Mustafa Sinan GÖNÜL PhD, MBA Office : H-120,,, Universiteler Mah., Dumlupinar Blv. No:1, Cankaya, Ankara, TURKEY Phones Office: +90 (312) s : [email protected] / [email protected] Website: Professional Experience Jan 2013 Mar Jan June 21 st, 2012 Dec Mar Sept Dec Sept July 2010 April 2008 April 2009 Sept April 2008 Sept Sept Fall Vice-Chair Associate Professor of Decision Sciences Vice Chair - Associate Professor of Decision Sciences Entitled by Inter-University Council of Turkey (UAK) Assistant Professor of Decision Sciences Part-time Instructor Glasgow Caledonian University Department of Psychology Postdoctoral Researcher (Decision Making and Risk Analysis) Turkish Armed Forces Armored Division and Training Command Ankara, Turkey Second Lieutenant (Compulsory Military Service) TOBB University of Economics and Technology Lecturer Bilkent University Faculty of Business Administration Graduate Assistant Part-time Instructor 1

2 Education Information Sept Sept PhD Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey Faculty of Business Administration Sept June 2007 Visiting Scholar Glasgow Caledonian University Glasgow, UK Sept June 2001 MBA Bilkent University, Ankara, Turkey Faculty of Business Administration July 2000 Dec MBA McGill University, Montreal, Canada Faculty of Management Sept June 1999 B.S., Ankara, Turkey Electrical & Electronic Engineering Honors and Awards Annual Academic Performance Incentive 2013 (Annual Academic Performance Incentive is awarded by METU President s Office to the academicians who make it to top 20% of their respective faculty in terms of annual performance) Awarded with Letter of Appreciation twice and received a Plaque of Service by Turkish Armed Forces Armored Division and Training Command for high performance and distinguished sense of duty during compulsory military service (March 2009). Honor scholarship by Bilkent University for PhD education ( ). Conference grant by Glasgow Caledonian University to participate in the 40 th EWGFM - Euro Working Group on Financial Modelling Meeting (May 2007). 1 st rank among 2001 Bilkent University MBA graduates. Achievement scholarship by Bilkent University for MBA education ( ). 4 th rank among 1999 METU graduates. 2 nd rank among 1999 METU Electrical and Electronics Engineering Department graduates. Bülent Kerim Altay Awards for Fall 1995, Spring 1996, Fall 1996, Spring 1998, Fall & Spring (Bülent Kerim Altay Award is given by METU Electrical and Electronics Engineering Department to students who rank 1 st in the class for the semester with GPA 4.00/4.00.) Areas of Specialization/Interest Judgmental forecasting, judgment and decision making, decision analysis, decision support systems, quantitative methods/experimental design and econometric forecasting. Ph.D. Dissertation User Perspective in Judgmental Adjustments: Nested Adjustments and Explanations, 28/9/2007, Prof. D. Önkal, Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University. 2

3 Publications International Refereed Journals Listed by SCI/SSCI Goodwin P., D. Önkal, M.S. Gönül, M.Thomson and E. Öz, (2016) Evaluating expert advice in forecasting: Users reactions to presumed vs experienced credibility, forthcoming in International Journal of Forecasting Kocabıyıkoğlu, A., I. Göğüş and M.S. Gönül, (2016) "Decision Making and the Price-Setting Newsvendor: Experimental Evidence" Decision Sciences, 47(1), DOI: /deci Kocabıyıkoğlu, A., I. Göğüş and M.S. Gönül, (2015) "Revenue management vs. newsvendor decisions: Does behavioral response mirror normative equivalence?", Production and Operations Management, 24(5), , DOI: /poms Önkal, D., K.Z. Sayım and M.S. Gönül, (2013) Scenarios as channels of forecast advice, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 80(4), Goodwin P., M.S. Gönül and D. Önkal, (2013) Antecedents and effects of trust in forecasting advice, International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), Thomson M.E., A.C. Pollock, M.S. Gönül and D. Önkal, (2013) Effects of trend strength and direction on performance and consistency in judgmental exchange rate forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting, 29(2), Önkal, D., P. Goodwin, M.E. Thomson, M.S. Gönül, A.C. Pollock (2009) The Relative Influence of Advice from Human Experts and Statistical Methods on Forecast Adjustments, Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, 22, Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and P. Goodwin. (2009) Expectations, Use and Judgmental Adjustment of External Financial and Economic Forecasts: An Empirical Investigation, Journal of Forecasting, 28, Önkal, D., M.S. Gönül and M. Lawrence. (2008) Judgmental Adjustments of Previously- Adjusted Forecasts, Decision Sciences, 39(2), Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal and M. Lawrence. (2006) "The Effects of Structural Characteristics of Explanations on Use of a DSS", Decision Support Systems, 42(3), International Refereed Journals Listed by Non-SCI/SSCI Indices Gönül, M.S., E. Soyer and D. Önkal. (2014) Decision Analysis in Turkey (invited paper), Decision Analysis Today, 33(1), Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and P. Goodwin. (2012) "Why should I trust your forecasts?" (invited paper), Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 27(3), 5-9. Gönül, M.S., M.E. Thomson and D. Önkal, (2010) The Influence of Trend Direction and Assessment Order on Judgmental Prediction Intervals (invited paper), International Journal of Decision Sciences (IJDS), 1(1), Pollock, A.C., A. Macaulay, M.E. Thomson, D. Önkal and M.S. Gönül, (2010) Evaluating Strategic Directional Probability Predictions for Exchange Rates (invited paper), International Journal of Applied Management Science (IJAMS), 2(3), Önkal, D. and M.S. Gönül. (2005) "Judgmental Adjustment: A Challenge for Providers and Users of Forecasts", Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, 1(1), National Refereed Journals Gönül, M.S. (2013) A popular and important tool for forecast users: Judgmental Adjustments - Tahmin kullanıcılarının hizmetindeki popüler ve önemli bir araç: Yargısal Düzeltmeler, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 31(2), Geniş-Gruber, A., M.S.Gönül and B.K.O.Taş, (2013) Obstacles to Online Shopping: Impact of Gender and Internet Security Issues, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 27(2), accepted for publication. 3

4 Gönül, M.S. (2011) A Classification of Research on Green Design : The Journey to Sustainable Product-Service Systems, H.Ü. İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 29(1), Bolger, F., D.Önkal, and M.S.Gönül, (2008) Forecasting in Health Service Provision Sağlık Hizmetlerinin Sağlanmasında Tahmin Üretim ve Kullanımı İktisat-İşletme ve Finans Dergisi (IIF), 23(265), (Listed by SCI/SSCI) Research Grants "Planlanmış Davranış Teorisi Perspektifinden Seçmenlerin Oy Verme Kararlarını Belirleyen Faktörler: Bir Türkiye Örneği" Supporting Institution: ODTÜ Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü (METU-BAP) Project Code : BAP (BAP-1) Project Team: Assoc. Prof. Dr. M.Sinan Gönül, Özge Dinç Project Role: Coordinator Total Project Budget: 6, TL Project Duration: "Deneysel ve Davranışsal Araştırmalar Lab. Kurulması" Supporting Institution: ODTÜ Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü (METU-BAP) Project Code : BAP DPT-2011K (BAP-2) Project Team: Prof. Dr. Özlem Özdemir Assoc. Prof. Dr. M.Sinan Gönül, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Serkan Küçükşenel, Asst. Prof. Dr. Mürüvvet Büyükboyacı, Assoc. Prof. Dr. Özgehan Şenyuva, Asst. Prof. Dr. Nilay Yavuz, Project Role: Researcher Total Project Budget: 200, TL Project Duration: "Use and Need of Information in Newsvendor Decisions: An Experimental Investigation" Supporting Institution: ODTÜ Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü (METU-BAP) Project Code : BAP (BAP-1) Project Team: Asst. Prof. Dr. M.Sinan Gönül, Asst. Prof. Dr. Ayşe Kocabıyıkoğlu, Asst. Prof. Dr. Itır Göğüş Project Role: Coordinator Total Project Budget: 9, TL Project Duration: "Framing Effects on New Generation Financial Statements" Supporting Institution: ODTÜ Bilimsel Araştırma Projeleri Koordinatörlüğü (METU-BAP) Project Code : BAP (BAP-1) Project Team: Asst. Prof. Dr. M.Sinan Gönül, Prof. F.N.Can Mugan, Dr. Nazlı Akman Project Role: Coordinator Total Project Budget: 11, TL Project Duration:

5 Conference Publications and Presentations Kocabıyıkoğlu A., I. Göğüş and M.S. Gönül Değişik Talep Seviyelerinde Sipariş Kararları Üzerine Deneysel Bir Çalışma, YAEM Yöneylem Araştırması ve Endüstri Mühendisliği Ulusal Kongresi, Ankara, Turkey, 9th-11th September, 2015, Özetler: p23. Özarslan, A., M.S.Gönül and H. Nabavi. Çok Amaçlı Karar Verme Yöntemiyle Asfalt Geri Dönüşüm Örneği, YAEM Yöneylem Araştırması ve Endüstri Mühendisliği Ulusal Kongresi, Ankara, Turkey, 9th-11th September, 2015, Özetler: p146. Özarslan, A., H. Nabavi, and M.S.Gönül, Multi-Objective Decision Making in Asphalt Recycling: A Municipality Case, 23 rd International Conference on Multiple Criteria Decision Making, Hamburg, Germany, 2nd-7th August, 2015, Book of Abstracts: p13. Önkal, D., P. Goodwin, K.Z. Sayım and M.S. Gönül. "Using Forecast Advice: Role of Optimism vs Pessimism in Scenarios". The 35 th International Symposium on Forecasting, Riverside, California USA, 21 June-24 June 2015, ISF 2015 Conference Program Book: p61 Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and P.Goodwin. "Trusting a Forecasting Support System Advice: The Influence of Format, Explanations and Explicit Assessments". Paper presented at the Graduate School of Informatics Seminar Series,, Turkey, 28 November Önkal, D., K.Z. Sayım and M.S. Gönül. "Does Acceptance of Forecast Advice Depend on Scenario Optimism?". INFORMS Annual Meeting 2014, San Francisco, California, USA, 9-12 November 2014, Programme and Abstracts Book: p443. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, P.Goodwin and M.E. Thomson "Presumed vs. experienced credibility of the forecast source". The 34 th International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam, Netherlands, 29 June-2 July 2014, ISF 2014 Conference Program Book: p130. Pollock, A.C., M.E. Thomson, M.S. Gönül and D. Önkal Composite versus individual forecasts: An examination of performance and consistency in inflation rate forecasting". The 34 th International Symposium on Forecasting, Rotterdam, Netherlands, 29 June-2 July 2014, ISF 2014 Conference Program Book: p137. Önkal D., M.S. Gönül and K.Z. Sayım. "Forecasting advice in the form of optimistic / pessimistic scenarios: Is it the content or the frame?". Forecasting, monitoring, controlling: Dealing with a dynamic World 2013, University College London, London, UK, September 2013, Conference Programme & Abstracts: p6. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, P.Goodwin and M.E. Thomson "Presumed vs. experienced credibility of the forecast source". The 33 rd International Symposium on Forecasting, Seoul, Korea, June 2013, ISF 2013 Proceedings Book: p58. Gönül, M.S., F.N.C. Mugan and N. Akman The new financial statement format: Do users perceive the financial status of a company differently? ICAEM International Conference on Accounting, Economics and Management, Copenhagen, Denmark, June 2013, WASET Proceedings Book: Issue 78, p828. Özarslan, A., and M.S.Gönül, An empirical study on advice taking: Comparison of techniques on measurement of advice utilization, 9 th International Student Conference Conference, İzmir University of Economics, İzmir, Turkey, April 14-15, Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and P.Goodwin. "Trusting Advice in Forecasting Decisions: Effects of Format, Explanations and Explicit Assessments". Paper presented at the Department of Economics Seminar Series,, Turkey, 12 November Gönül, M.S., A. Kocabıyıkoğlu and I. Göğüş. "An Experimental Investigation of Information Utilization in Newsvendor Decisions". INFORMS Annual Meeting 2012, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, October 2012, Programme and Abstracts Book: p77. 5

6 Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and K.Z. Sayım. "Scenarios as support tools for judgmental forecasts". INFORMS Annual Meeting 2012, Phoenix, Arizona, USA, October 2012, Programme and Abstracts Book: p341. Gönül, M.S., M. Thomson and D. Önkal. "Judgmental interval forecasts: The effects of assessment order and trend direction". The 25 th European Conference on Operational Research, Vilnius, Lithunia, 8-11 July 2012, Programme and Abstracts Book: p142. Önkal, D., M.S. Gönül and K.Z. Sayım. "How do scenarios help individual and group-based judgmental forecasts". The 32 nd International Symposium on Forecasting, Boston, USA, June 2012, ISF 2012, Proceedings Book: p123. Kocabıyıkoğlu A., I. Göğüş and M.S. Gönül Use and need of information in news vendor decisions: An experimental investigation The 3 rd Annual Conference of the European Decision Sciences Institute (EDSI), İstanbul, Türkiye, June 2012, Programme and Abstracts Book: p15. Thomson, M., A.C. Pollock, M.S. Gönül and D. Önkal. "Effects of trend strength and direction on accuracy and consistency in judgmental forecasting". The 31 st International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague, Czech Republic, June 2011, ISF 2011 Proceedings Book: p131. Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, and P.Goodwin. "Trust in forecast advice: Effects of Format, Explanations and Explicit Assessments". The 31 st International Symposium on Forecasting, Prague, Czech Republic, June 2011, ISF 2011 Proceedings Book: p216. Önkal, D., M.S.Gönül and P.Goodwin. "Trusting forecast advice: The importance of Interval Format and Point Forecasts ". The 30 th International Symposium on Forecasting, San Diego, USA, June 2010, ISF 2010 Proceedings Book: p97. Önkal, D., M.S.Gönül and M.Lawrence. "Judgmental Adjustments: Effects of Prior Adjustments and Explanations". The 27 th International Symposium on Forecasting, New York, USA, June 2007, ISF 2007 Proceedings Book: p6. Pollock A.C., A. Macaulay, M.E. Thomson, D. Önkal and M.S.Gönül, Evaluating Short/Medium Term Directional Exchange Rate Probability Predictions. 40 th EWGFM - Euro Working Group on Financial Modelling Meeting, Rotterdam, Netherlands, May Gönül, M.S., D. Önkal, M. Lawrence. Judgmental Forecasting: An Experimental Inquiry on Effects of Explanation Characteristics. Paper presented at the Department of Psychology Seminar Series, Glasgow Caledonian University, Glasgow, UK, March Önkal, D. and M.S.Gönül. "Forecast Users' Reactions to Adjustment-Framing". 36th Annual Meeting of the Decision Sciences Institute, San Francisco, November Önkal, D., M.Lawrence and M.S.Gönül. "Explanation Characteristics and Forecast Adjustment". INFORMS Annual Meeting, San Francisco, November Gönül, M.S. "Explanation Characteristics and their Effects on Forecast Users". MCIL-The International Doctoral Colloquium in Business and Management Studies, Oxford, Sept Gönül, M.S., D.Önkal, and M.Lawrence. "Effects of the Structural Characteristics of Explanations on the Adjustment of Point Forecasts". EURO/INFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul, July Other Academic Work 6

7 Thomson, M., D.Bell and M.S.Gonul. A Critical Examination of the Vehicle Check Web Site Carwatch UK. A consultation report produced for WSI Internet Consulting and Education, Thesis and Term-Projects Supervised MBA thesis Akbulut E. (2015) Debiasing Framing Effect: Analytical Processing and Explicit Warning, MBA Thesis Nabavi S.H. (2015) Empowering Knowledge Driven Turkish Start-ups: A Practical Rule- Based Decision Support System Integrated with Business Model Canvas, MBA Thesis, with co-supervior Assoc.Prof. Dr. Adil Oran Özer N. (2015) Heterogeneously Informed Group Decision Making Under Expert Advice, MBA Thesis Özarslan, A. (2014) Advice utilization and decision performance under random advice, MBA Thesis MBA/eMBA Term-Projects Polat H. (2015). Investment decision-making analysis in Petroleum Pipeline Corporation, emba Term-Project Demirer, B. (2014) The effects of website popularity, credit card security technologies, price discounts on perceived risk of online shopping in Turkey, MBA Term-Project Yıldırım, A. (2014) Does recognition information lead to one-reason decision-making or integrate with other cognitive cues?, MBA Term-Project Yılmaz, R. (2014) Risk Perception of Turkish People Based on Social Media Posts?, emba Term-Project Acar, A.E. (2013) Effects of risk characteristics and locus of control on Gambler s Fallacy, MBA Term-Project Cengizçetin, D. (2013) Judgmental Forecasting Practices in Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT), MBA Term-Project Mantıkcı, Ö. (2013) Framing effect and its reflections over problems on human life, money and social relations, MBA Term-Project Özdemir, İ. (2013) An investigation on Prospect Theory, MBA Term-Project Türeli,U. (2013) The effects of cognitive factors on entrepreneurs risk perception and opportunity evaluation processes, MBA Term-Project Gürsoy,F. (2012) An Evaluation of Sub-additivity and Super-additivity Effect of Support Theory on Turkish University Students, MBA Term-Project 7

8 Tekin,F. (2012) Possession Loss Aversion vs. Valence Loss Aversion, MBA Term-Project Uludağ,U. (2012) The Impact of Work Experience on Framing Effects, MBA Term-Project Azizov,T. (2011) A comparison of cognitive heuristics between Turkish and Azerbaijani Students, MBA Term-Project Ertunç,B. (2011) An investigation on utility theory and three paradoxes, MBA Term- Project Courses Taught BA6204: Experimental Design for Decision Sciences Department of Business Administration,, Spring 2016 (PhD in the Field of Quantitative Decision Methods elective course) with Prof.Dr. Özlem Özdemir BA6203: Theories in Decision Sciences, Middle East Technical University, Fall 2015 (PhD in the Field of Quantitative Decision Methods - must course) BA5503: Management Science, Middle East Technical University, Fall , Fall 2010, Fall 2011, Fall 2012, Fall 2013, Fall 2014, Fall 2015 (MBA must course) BA3504: Management Science, Middle East Technical University, Spring 2011, Spring 2012, Spring 2013, Spring 2014, Spring 2015, Spring 2016 (Undergraduate 3 rd year must course) BAS352: Management Science, Middle East Technical University, Spring 2011, Spring 2012, Spring 2013, Spring2014, Spring 2015, Spring 2016 (METU-SUNY Program 3 rd year must course) BA5518: Decision Analysis: Behavioral and Psychological Perspectives Department of Business Administration,, Spring 2012, Spring 2013, Spring 2014, Spring 2015, Spring 2016 (MBA elective course) BA4518: Decision Analysis: Behavioral And Psychological Perspectives Department of Business Administration,, Spring 2012, Spring 2013, Spring 2014, Spring 2015, Spring 2016 (Undergraduate 4 th year elective course) BA5517: Decision Analysis: Tools and Methods,, Spring 2011, Fall 2011, Fall 2012, Fall 2013, Fall 2014 (MBA elective course) BA4517: Decision Analysis: Tools and Methods,, Spring 2011, Fall 2011, Fall 2012, Fall 2013, Fall 2014 (Undergraduate 4 th year elective course) EMBA5501: Quantitative Tools The Linear Programming and Simulation Module, Middle East Technical University, Fall , Fall 2011 (Executive MBA must course) ISL482: E-Business E-İşletmecilik, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Spring (Undergraduate 4 th year elective course) ISL112: Introduction to Management Yönetim Bilimine Giriş Department of Business Administration, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Spring (Undergraduate 1 st year must course for, Undergraduate elective course for all other departments) 8

9 OEG101: Firms and Corporations Module TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Spring (Undergraduate 1 st year must course for all departments) ISL443: Project Management Proje Yönetimi, TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Fall (Undergraduate 4 th year elective course) ISL395: Topics in Production Management Mesleki Ingilizce I (Uretim Yonetimi ile ilgili Temel Konu ve Kavramlar), TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Fall (Undergraduate 3 rd year must course) ETU-SEM: Applied Project Management Module - TOBB University of Economics and Technology Continuing Education Center, December (Part of a certificate program directed at business professionals) PSYPM20: Risk Taking Behaviour: Perception and Management - Expertise and Probability Judgement Appropriateness Module, Glasgow Caledonian University, Spring (PgD/MSc Risk Management program must course) MAN-256: Introduction to Management Science Faculty of Business Administration, Bilkent University, Spring (Undergraduate must course) Certificates International Management Certificate: Mcgill University, Montreal, Canada Academy International Foreign Trade Certificate English Language Certificate by ILC at International House Hastings, London Basic Japanese Language Certificate by Bilkent University Foreign Languages English (Advanced), Japanese (Intermediate), German (Beginner), French (Beginner) Computer Skills Languages: Visual Basic, C/C++, Java Software: MATLAB, SPSS, Minitab, MS Word/Excel/Access, MS FrontPage Social Activities International Institute of Forecasters member, INFORMS student member, Academic Advisor to Bilkent Japanese Animation & Comics Club, Member of Bilkent University ALUMNI Society, Member of METU ALUMNI Society, Session Chair, EURO/INFORMS Joint International Meeting, Istanbul, July